Have we reached cigarmageddon?

[Cold Smoke]

My better half just texted me going through Heathrow. She reports back that there are no Cuban cigars at the Duty Free, None. Zero. Sweet %$#@ all! Not even a crappy three-pack of RYJ #1

Lady behind the counter said the suppliers have simply stopped supplying.

I fear we may well be in full-on cigarmageddon.

Cherish your stashes.

[El Presidente]

6 minutes ago, Cold Smoke said:

My better half just texted me going through Heathrow. She reports back that there are no Cuban cigars at the Duty Free, None. Zero. Sweet %$#@ all! Not even a crappy three-pack of RYJ #1

 

When the body is in trauma, it focuses on supplying blood to it's major organs in order to keep the host alive. 

UK retailers need to be fed before Duty free. 

[Hoepssa]

Homer Simpson knew these well...

If more and more young becoming cigar enthusiasts, they felt no worry about that. For them, quality cigars cost very much from the time they start this hobby.

 

[Philopez]

https://www.cigaraficionado.com/article/cohiba-55-aniversario-hitting-market-with-enormous-price-tag

Is it here, now?

[Bijan]

16 hours ago, Hoepssa said:

Homer Simpson knew these well...

If more and more young becoming cigar enthusiasts, they felt no worry about that. For them, quality cigars cost very much from the time they start this hobby.

I definitely remember buying a lot from 2020 through 2021 and constantly hearing about how crazy the prices were. Now I feel they are crazy and someone else will start buying.

[Juliano88]

Since they don't care about improving quality in terms of the draw and consistency of their cigars, I am done. If I pay luxury prices I expect a luxury product that works consistently. There are way too many good NC's out there that are dependable, affordable and consistent with great flavors. Love Cuban tobacco but the "Cuban twang" doesn't justify those outrageous prices. 

[BEVOSREVENGE]

15 minutes ago, Juliano88 said:

Since they don't care about improving quality in terms of the draw and consistency of their cigars, I am done. If I pay luxury prices I expect a luxury product that works consistently. 

Agree, don't mind paying a premium for a truly premium product; however, with HSA products at present, it is an expensive low probability bet and nothing more.  Thank God, I have thousands of cubans (cohiba and non-cohiba) to smoke until they figure that out.

I don't think demand is as inelastic as they think.

 

[Chibearsv]

I don't know if I can pay for the retirement lake house by selling my stash....but I might be able to buy the boat 😁

[Rhinoww]

4 hours ago, Chibearsv said:

I don't know if I can pay for the retirement lake house by selling my stash....but I might be able to buy the boat 😁

So true story, a cigar buddy and I had lengthy discussions about each putting in X dollars and fill a few closets (of Coolidors) w premium cuban cigars last summer. We didn’t pull the trigger primarily as we would never have resold anything and our wives would have killed us. We also were a tad concerned that kind of cigar delivery might garner us some unwanted attention from the authorities  Turns out we could have sold on BR and made a killing. Oh well. 

I keep a Spreadsheet which tracks the boxes I have and every year or so I actually take inventory. But I know my burn rate and track my buying so I have a decent idea of count which I note every few months. I put down my totals as of this week as it could be at personal high water mark. I also noted “cigarmageddon May have been reached this month”
I have plenty and will supplement along the way in the future when I’m moved by the spirit. It will be interesting to see if the recent changes change the pace and/or type of my acquisitions or if the spirit continues to move me at a breakneck pace. Trinidad and Cohiba are out for the foreseeable future regrettably. 
Do I think we have reached my personal cigarmageddon?  Yes. What does that really mean? I have no idea yet. 

[Ford2112]

I am new to the hobby again as of last year. I bought quite a bit before this latest hike so I have only that as a frame of reference. I will continue to buy certain regular production as I see fit. I smoke a lot ,at least 5 cigars a week ,sometimes more. At this rate I would be out in a couple years and I'm not willing to give up. I am waiting to see what happens. I don't see things as doom and gloom. Hell I spend thousands of dollars on fishing gear alone. C'est la vie.

[rcarlson]

 Is there a case to be made for this?   Looking for it.  

[RDB]

That 5th Avenue price list is interesting. Most important thing is: relax everybody, lots of great cigars will still be available at similar prices to before. Sure supply is down, but Habanos is not trying to triple the prices of your Monte no.2, RyJ Ex4, Partagas E2 etc. We can all learn to live without Cohiba & Trinidad.
 

It did look to me like the Churchill / DC sizes see bigger than usual increases though. Is that right?

[Miguel Gracias]

On 5/19/2022 at 12:54 PM, El Presidente said:

g" everywhere at the moment.  It will die down as folks adjust their expectations and/or their buying habits. HSA has

grabbed 3 boxes from host last couple months, I'm so glad to stock some my favorite Montecristo.  

[Tdm_86]

5 hours ago, RDB said:

That 5th Avenue price list is interesting. Most important thing is: relax everybody, lots of great cigars will still be available at similar prices to before. Sure supply is down, but Habanos is not trying to triple the prices of your Monte no.2, RyJ Ex4, Partagas E2 etc. We can all learn to live without Cohiba & Trinidad.
 

It did look to me like the Churchill / DC sizes see bigger than usual increases though. Is that right?

As long as they don’t triple the price of my E2’s and Montecristo regular production, it’s fine 😄 

And I’ll still be buying Cohiba and maybe some Trini here and there, as I don’t smoke those a whole lot anyway. I think I can still justify a 5er here and there, even at the new prices. Would be a different story if my Cohiba/Trinidad consumption was higher. 

[BeerPimp]

My friend begged me to go in on some CC with him in 2018.   I downloaded someones spreadsheet to track your cigar purchases it has a column that calculates years and months on the cigars.   I was kinda shocked when I scrolled to bottom and saw the total on how much I had spent.  Now I am thinking I am glad I spent that much so I will have cigars to smoke through the current supply issues.   Still kicking myself for not buying a box of Fundadores.

[AndrewNR]

I went to a bar I'd been watching for awhile in January..  trini Reyes was $85 ea. I chose to have a cocktail instead.

Generally, with the prices we see in hand made or luxury things currently in the retail or service sector the only thing unreasonable is our attitudes and how little of that money goes to producers and manufacturers. 

I smoke a lot less than I used too, lifestyle more than anything. I still think smoke what and how you enjoy and keep things relative. 

[ChicagoRob]

My friend begged me to go in on some CC with him in 2018.   I downloaded someones spreadsheet to track your cigar purchases it has a column that calculates years and months on the cigars.   I was kinda shocked when I scrolled to bottom and saw the total on how much I had spent.  Now I am thinking I am glad I spent that much so I will have cigars to smoke through the current supply issues.   Still kicking myself for not buying a box of Fundadores.

At least my spreadsheet column showing cost basis is onlyyyyy 5 digits

[Nevrknow]

21 minutes ago, ChicagoRob said:

At least my spreadsheet column showing cost basis is onlyyyyy 5 digits

5? Rookie! 😂😂😂

[jakebarnes]

20 hours ago, Nevrknow said:

5? Rookie! 😂😂😂

 

[ChicagoRob]

 

[SCgarman]

On 5/21/2022 at 6:51 PM, AndrewNR said:

I went to a bar I'd been watching for awhile in January..  trini Reyes was $85 ea. I chose to have a cocktail instead.

Generally, with the prices we see in hand made or luxury things currently in the retail or service sector the only thing unreasonable is our attitudes and how little of that money goes to producers and manufacturers. 

I smoke a lot less than I used too, lifestyle more than anything. I still think smoke what and how you enjoy and keep things relative. 

Is that 85 AUS dollars or 85 US dollars. Big difference, no?

[Duxnutz]

8 hours ago, SCgarman said:

Is that 85 AUS dollars or 85 US dollars. Big difference, no?

Good god I wonder what the liquor prices were. 

[voxpopulme]

I feel that the current market conditions are reminiscent of the cigar boom that the industry saw in the 90s - struggling supply, relatively high pricing, and many new marcas (NC that is) in the marketplace all trying to gain an edge. With the capital flight out of China and a slowing US (dare I say world?) economy, how long can this type of situation persist? Population in many countries is aging faster than the birth rate and there are simply not enough people to replace retirees in the successive generations - my bet is that this will result in fewer cigar smokers overall without factoring in issues like excise taxes or the younger generation's preference for alternatives to tobacco. The only saving grace for the smaller guys is that many boutique makers do not have investments in physical factories and most production comes out of select, well-established locations. I guess what I'm getting at is that it isn't only the market for Cubans that may be at risk at the moment. As was mentioned earlier in this thread, what goes up, must come down.

[ltte]

How do you expect that the prices in general of any goods remains stable when some "clever" polititians allowed printing more than 16.000.000.000.000 USD and more than 8.000.000.000.000 Euros?

That is called inflation. Inflation is the situation when yours income does not increase and all the prices are constantly increase.

[Hollywood Ninja]

When I got into cigar smoking, CCs were considered to be a "deal" compared to boutique NCs.  In the beginning I didn't smoke many boutique NCs like I do now, so the price increases for CCs other than Cohiba/Trini haven't felt that extreme, but perhaps more inline with some of the better NCs I smoke (Warped, etc).  I also smoke 90% PCs with CC, so the hit doesn't feel quite as bad.