Have we reached cigarmageddon?

[LordAnubis]

While I used to think a CC bubble burst is coming, recent events of consumer spending and overall lack of understanding of CCs leads me to believe it’s not going to happen. In my view the drastic price rise has brought in a hell of a lot more scammers and a hell of a lot more sheep to be easily fooled. I am now predicting prices will double across the board over the next 2 years. The Habanos portfolio will halve. 

[Duxnutz]

9 hours ago, MrBirdman said:

I am really surprised at what an impact this has had on my ability to enjoy CC. I basically didn’t smoke any for months and even now generally reach for NC lanceros despite having enough CC to last me for many years. I haven’t touched a “premium” stick this year, outside a single Siglo II, even though I have plenty. They’ve taken the fun out of it somehow.

It’s kind of like a feeling of deceit. When I got into this hobby I had such respect for Habanos, eagerly poured over MRN’s encyclopedia and became fully engrossed. Now like many, I walk over and usually pick any particular cigar I feel like smoking. 
 

I feel we are in a bubble of sorts, that like the property market is held up by FOMO and the poser network of Instagram. 
 

Oddly enough and whilst similar to bourbon I don’t feel the same way. Still plenty of decent bottles at or close to msrp and tasty offerings that mean you don’t have to chase the unicorns. 
 

 

[MrBirdman]

5 hours ago, Duxnutz said:

I feel we are in a bubble of sorts, that like the property market is held up by FOMO and the poser network of Instagram. 

I think some of it is probably driven by naivete among new CC smokers - after all one of the biggest surprises for me when getting into CC was what a value they were. So I probably would've paid these prices initially (and just dismissed Cohiba altogether the way I never had any interest in buying Behikes). The problem for Habanos is that I certainly would never have embraced the hobby the way I did because of their QC issues. My first box of Coloniales was 6-7 years ago - I paid $230 and probably could've found them cheaper. They were absolutely dreadful. If I had taken the plunge at $800 and gotten a box like that, I'd have given up or limited myself to a box of Monte 4 here and there. I don't like being ripped off. But I bought another box eventually and it quickly became a go-to cigar for me. 

Now that I'm hooked I won't ever give CC up entirely (though I won't be buying more Coloniales once my supply runs out) - they will just represent a much smaller share of my spending. But is this a durable business model when you need to attract new customers to a market which is publicly disfavored, heavily taxed in most places, and hampered by ever-more aggressive anti-smoking ordinances? I guess time will tell, but I am not surprised to hear that NC makers were high-fiving at recent trade shows.

@Duxnutz is correct that social media has been a huge boon to luxury goods companies. And while I don't know if it will prove a bubble, it's not something I will ever care for. By throwing in their lot with Versace et al, Habanos is not only limiting their market share - they are aiming at an entirely different kind of consumer. Even if I can "afford" Louis Vuitton luggage and the like without defaulting on my mortgage, I find them not only to be poor value but outright tacky. It's just not me, so why would I spend part of my personal budget on it? I think that's why this market reorientation has been so disheartening for me.

 

[Cigar Surgeon]

So here's the question I'm curious about, and @El Presidente maybe this would make an excellent poll question?

For those of you who have transitioned partially or completely over to NCs:

If the prices were to return to some semblance of normality for CCs, how much would you change your buying habits as a result?

[MrBirdman]

51 minutes ago, Cigar Surgeon said:

So here's the question I'm curious about, and @El Presidente maybe this would make an excellent poll question?

For those of you who have transitioned partially or completely over to NCs:

If the prices were to return to some semblance of normality for CCs, how much would you change your buying habits as a result?

Definitely poll worthy. For me, the answer (assuming availability) is that I would increase my share of CC. But it will never go back to where it once was (95%). The opportunity to discover the improvement in NC cigar has been remarkable. I have also fallen in love with skinnies over the past five year, and love being able to smoke them regularly. 

So your point is well taken - some of the damage is already done. It's all moot right now because I can't even find Monte 4. But as I've said all along, these prices are the right move if all they care about is maximizing revenue in the short-term - the problem for them is long-term. I'm skeptical they can support prices like this if they ever want to get back to even 70-80% of pre-COVID production and supply. I see this move as the result of 1) a country in the midst of an economic crisis desperate for every cent it can get, and 2) the influence of new ownership who have buyer's regret and want to maximize revenue so they can dump their share at a profit or minimal loss before the chickens come home to roost.

[Bijan]

1 hour ago, MrBirdman said:

But is this a durable business model when you need to attract new customers to a market which is publicly disfavored, heavily taxed in most places, and hampered by ever-more aggressive anti-smoking ordinances?

There's at least one country where cigarettes are illegal for the next generation and only exist for the grandfathered current smokers.

The cigar market itself may not be durable or have a future in most of the world. With ever increasing taxes and plain packaging.

Of course your other 2 points about Cuba being in bad shape and new owners wanting to wring out profits are true too.

[SCgarman]

2 hours ago, MrBirdman said:

Definitely poll worthy. For me, the answer (assuming availability) is that I would increase my share of CC. But it will never go back to where it once was (95%). The opportunity to discover the improvement in NC cigar has been remarkable. I have also fallen in love with skinnies over the past five year, and love being able to smoke them regularly. 

So your point is well taken - some of the damage is already done. It's all moot right now because I can't even find Monte 4. But as I've said all along, these prices are the right move if all they care about is maximizing revenue in the short-term - the problem for them is long-term. I'm skeptical they can support prices like this if they ever want to get back to even 70-80% of pre-COVID production and supply. I see this move as the result of 1) a country in the midst of an economic crisis desperate for every cent it can get, and 2) the influence of new ownership who have buyer's regret and want to maximize revenue so they can dump their share at a profit or minimal loss before the chickens come home to roost.

Cuba is no doubt in dire economic turmoil. Look at the write ups Rob posts here. Lack of fuel for autos, an inept power grid being driven by ships docked in waters, a dire lack of food and basic necessities we can find for ourselves anywhere without worry. There is a widespread path of dysfunction in Cuba. Cigars are just one small percentage. Where and how this situation ends up, who knows?

[Kenton1971]

11 hours ago, Duxnutz said:

It’s kind of like a feeling of deceit. When I got into this hobby I had such respect for Habanos, eagerly poured over MRN’s encyclopedia and became fully engrossed. Now like many, I walk over and usually pick any particular cigar I feel like smoking. 
 

I feel we are in a bubble of sorts, that like the property market is held up by FOMO and the poser network of Instagram. 
 

Oddly enough and whilst similar to bourbon I don’t feel the same way. Still plenty of decent bottles at or close to msrp and tasty offerings that mean you don’t have to chase the unicorns.   ...  ssshhh...don't stop them from chasing any/all Buffalo Trace distillate or Willet purple tops!  For anyone reading, please continue chasing-- you'll hear the angels sing when drinking I promise!
 

 

 

[rabidraccoon]

On 4/25/2023 at 12:30 PM, Bijan said:

Same with me. I was buying thinking there will come a day when I won't be able to, or won't be able to afford to buy anymore.

But when that day came I kind of went into mourning and stopped thinking about cigars for a while.

Now I just smoke whatever I want, knowing full well that my collection is now my desert island collection.

I'm exactly like this too now. All my double coronas, Montecristo "A"'s, whatever rare old EL's I have I just smoke whenever I feel like now. I am sad because when Cuban tobacco is done well, there is nothing else like it on Earth. That being said, I have plenty of NC alternatives which I love almost as much. I consider Cubans to be like some old discontinued product that I can't get anymore and I'm ok with that reality.