I don't understand the Lockdown/shut down exit strategy?


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7 minutes ago, TheGipper said:

That's a strange turn of phrase for "disappeared/murdered numerous doctors, professors, and journalists".

One countries murder is anothers whitelblowing treasonous prisoner ?

 

1 minute ago, Hammer Smokin' said:

In my quest to understand, when I read who is putting "blame" on both China as well as the W.H.O, appears it comes from one particular source country.

For example, when googling w.h.o fault or china fault, all the media responses are from once source. Are there other countries in the world also placing blame (or heavy fault if you prefer) on China or W.H.O.?

Would be interested in hearing some other countries supporting the same message.

I think blame is the quick fire solution. Divert attention away from the actual problem and what's not being done about it and give the population a united enemy. We know how well that will work out. 

My biggest concern out of all of this is what will happen next time. There will be a next time, and will the world be put into lockdown in 10 years time when a new virus comes around?

I think the hardest thing is that you have to use some baseline of belief. You can either use science to make decisions, or make generalizations. Science based decisions take time to study, evaluate, and conclude. I think that's what happened here. Its a hard job being the WHO. A country, or the world, is run by a balance. You don't want to go too far one way. Sometimes in an effort to ensure you don't impose too much you make the wrong decision.

Im wondering what will happen after lockdown. SO when everything is all good again, how long will it take for the world to get back into some sort of normal? AIrlines will take time to hire new staff, and get planes back up in the air. Oil will have to start being produced again for fuel. Fuel price will sky rocket in the medium term and greed will prolong this as much as posible. Airline prices and freight prices will sky rocket. Cost of goods now that everyone and businesses are consuming again will all go through the roof because there's no supply to complete with the huge surge in demand. I think thats the most concerning thing.

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I do understand what you are saying.  From my perspective, it would be hard to say that this is “overblown” though, because, as a doctor in the 21st century, I have never seen anything like this in my

I personally don't believe a damn thing coming from Wuhan as being credible. China has made most news organizations leave the country.

54 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

I am pretty sure Mus wasn't calling JO racist. 

You can take a stick to the Chinese Government for a host of reasons  but the west has been too gutless and too greedy for too long. I am all for a significant Tariff on Chinese goods but that has nothing to do with the CV19. It has to do with currency manipulation underpinning an unfair manufacturing advantage.  It has nothing to do with "racism". 

Currency manipulation is a good start but there is much, much more to China's strategy.  This is not the place but I will say that as a global investment manager that has done his fair share of research on China, in my opinion there is reason to be concerned about China no matter who you are.  They've mastered the art of slow playing.

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25 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

WHO is a disgrace. 

China is China 

Agreed and agreed.  

What we shouldn't loose in this, is a comfortable abrogation of responsibility, which is what all major governments are currently doing.   Apart from Taiwan and South Korea, everyone else shat the bed, just to differing degrees.     

China is going through its own personal 'industrial age' just like the Egypt, Greece, Rome, UK, America etc etc before it, .  and the progression of all of those historical superpowers is stained with blood and deception.   Whomever are clutching their pearls about China, has more to do with not wanting them to be the worlds next leading superpower, than anything to do with morals.

 

 

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13 minutes ago, 99call said:

Agreed and agreed.  

What we shouldn't loose in this, is a comfortable abrogation of responsibility, which is what all major governments are currently doing.   Apart from Taiwan and South Korea, everyone else shat the bed, just to differing degrees.     

China is going through its own personal 'industrial age' just like the Egypt, Greece, Rome, UK, America etc etc before it, .  and the progression of all of those historical superpowers is stained with blood and deception.   Whomever are clutching their pearls about China, has more to do with not wanting them to be the worlds next leading superpower, than anything to do with morals.

 

 

You are absolutely right that many people don’t want China to be a bigger superpower than they already are. Do you?  (To be clear, this has to do with governing philosophy, not race.)

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1 minute ago, Riverstyx said:

You are absolutely right that many people don’t want China to be a bigger superpower than they already are. Do you?  (To be clear, this has to do with governing philosophy, not race.)

Personally, I would like no superpowers but this is beyond the scope of this thread :D

Back to topic if we can. 

 

 

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i don't think we have seen a hint of the blame that is to come. it will be going everywhere in every direction. so far, this is a genteel afternoon tea party compared to the apocalypse of finger pointing we will see.

riverstyx, without wishing to contravene rob's latest directive and hence mentioning no countries, may i say that i am not convinced that this mess was part of any plan by any nation but, in general, i am 100% in agreement with you. many of us may not be around to see it (i mean because we got old and fell off the perch, not because of the virus), but it is happening. 

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3 hours ago, 99call said:

Agreed and agreed.  

What we shouldn't loose in this, is a comfortable abrogation of responsibility, which is what all major governments are currently doing.   Apart from Taiwan and South Korea, everyone else shat the bed, just to differing degrees.     

 

 

 

Germany has done pretty darn well if you ask me. Basically followed the South Korea model.

As for "no one saw this coming", while anyone who says that is hopelessly out of touch or has an agenda, it's worth nothing that even Fauci himself expressly predicted this.  He was asked "what keeps you up at night?" and his answer was pretty much describing the current pandemic to a "T".

 

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9 minutes ago, Deeg said:

Germany has done pretty darn well if you ask me. Basically followed the South Korea model.

As for "no one saw this coming", while anyone who says that is hopelessly out of touch or has an agenda, it's worth nothing that even Fauci himself expressly predicted this.  He was asked "what keeps you up at night?" and his answer was pretty much describing the current pandemic to a "T".

 

Well, we are naturally optimistic as a species. Otherwise none of us would get married, have kids, start small businesses, or buy hundreds of boxes of cigars we may never get to smoke!

And after all, there are opportunity costs associated with prepping for one disaster over another. Every bad thing that ever happened always seemed inevitable after the fact. There might even be a silver lining in all this if a worse virus comes along in our lifetimes....I’d imagine we’d be a lot more prepared as a planet than if Covid never happened.

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1 hour ago, El Presidente said:

Get back on topic or get out of the discussion. 

Unfortunately the 2 are related. If you cant see this you'll be out in the bush hunting for your next meal after everything collapses around you. John

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50 minutes ago, JohnnyO said:

Unfortunately the 2 are related. If you cant see this you'll be out in the bush hunting for your next meal after everything collapses around you. John

From my comments, you should be able to see that I am not unsympathetic to that line of argument. 

However a geopolitical discussion is not where this thread needs to go. 

 

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The "nobody saw this coming" argument is an interesting one. 

When used by politicians it's a simple code for "How I am supposed to get re-elected if we spend millions/billions on something that may or may not happen".

When New York, London and most populated cities in Asia are knee-deep in seawater there'll be politicians saying "Nobody saw this coming!"

It's the main problem with democracy as we know it. Long-term planning is detrimental to votes as people just see the cost. it's hard for people to visualise the potential benefits in 10, 20 or 50 years.

On the plus side. If there is a positive from this, it's that as bad as this is, it could be much worse. It's not "the big one", that could be out there. This could be looked at as a dress rehearsal for what went wrong and what needs to be done when the big one does come. I've seen mentions of "Ebeasles"; what might happen if there appears a virus with the infection rate of measles and mortality of Ebola.

When that one comes, we'll be glad of this one.

Though people have short memories, in 5-10 years time there'll be shouts of "Why are we paying xx million for pandemic research groups and upkeep of ventilators in storage??" And there'll be politicians happy to run on those concerns.  

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Ryan,

I hope you are right. I’ve speculated and planned a bit around this virus, and all I can figure is that the virus itself, and everything about it keeps changing.

Now Some medical professionals are saying this virus damages the heart of those that have recovered.

It may be that this virus and all of it’s associated aftershocks do the equivalent of “the big one”. Time will tell. May we all have the opportunity to keep our families safe.

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1 hour ago, BJRPorter said:

Ryan,

I hope you are right. I’ve speculated and planned a bit around this virus, and all I can figure is that the virus itself, and everything about it keeps changing.

Now Some medical professionals are saying this virus damages the heart of those that have recovered.

It may be that this virus and all of it’s associated aftershocks do the equivalent of “the big one”. Time will tell. May we all have the opportunity to keep our families safe.

It's still early days for this. Too early to know many things about it. Especially when so many different countries and regions are using different methods to count cases and mortality. It's another example of why we need to be thinking more along the lines of "We're all in this together". I know people are complaining about the WHO, and many of those complaints seem valid, but what else is there? We are way past any notion of an alternative of closing borders. We've been past that for centuries. I like wine sometimes and it can't be made in Ireland. That list goes on. 

A quick look at the numbers shows mortality rates between 0.01% and 10%, depending on the country reporting. There are still too many variables.

I know Ireland is reporting deaths to due Covid-19 in nursing homes (senior citizen care homes), whereas the UK, as far as I know, doesn't.

Then there's the discrepancy between Spain and Portugal. Basically the same climate, negligible genetic difference in the population but Spain has a mortality rate of 10%, Portugal less than 3%.

https://ncov2019.live/data

Portugal has had a robust BCG vaccination programme than Spain, it's one of the reasons trials have begun with BCG vaccinations for this. But still, no one knows.

There were residual health effects shown for the SARS outbreak in 2003/2004, including osteoperosis of all things.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41413-020-0084-5

 

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BCG is a very interesting wild card in all this, as I've mentioned before.  Since a true COVID-19 vaccine (which would be the first successfully created for a Coronavirus) is 12-18 months away even in the most optimistic scenarios, a vaccine which is already considered safe enough for humans, though not universally - there are reasons why some countries stopped using it many decades ago - could be an invaluable bridge.  While it doesn't seem as if the BCG jab offers immunity to COVID-19, there's enough intriguing correlation to think it might meaningfully reduce the number of people who become seriously ill.  Which is, in effect, what the annual flu vaccine does.  It may all come to nothing, but it definitely needs to be investigated thoroughly.

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13 hours ago, LordAnubis said:

I think the hardest thing is that you have to use some baseline of belief. You can either use science to make decisions, or make generalizations. Science based decisions take time to study, evaluate, and conclude. I think that's what happened here. Its a hard job being the WHO. A country, or the world, is run by a balance. You don't want to go too far one way. Sometimes in an effort to ensure you don't impose too much you make the wrong decision.

I don't subscribe.  Whoever controls the funding controls the science.  

My father was hit with Polio when he was in H.S.  It didn't permanently cripple him, but it took him out for a while (just in time to get drafted).  I learned that the time of the outbreak swimming pools were known Polio breeding grounds (among others).  Health officials warned of transmission, and instructed families to stay away.  And they did. For a while.  Over time families re-emerged and went back to the pools, choosing to accept the risks.  Why?  Given a choice, people are ultimately unwilling to live in a perpetual state of fear. 

So too now.  The decision of what happens next does not reside exclusively in the health officials or politicians.    

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IMPO there are a couple of keys to releasing the populace from lockdown;

1- A better way to treat the infected has to be identified and adopted. From nurses I know through my work, infected persons are coming into ICU with pulse ox of 55 or less. Anything under 90 is usually treated with supplemental oxygen, so when they get such low oxygen readings they immediately assume ARDS (pneumonia), and intubate, as per generally accepted protocols. But it's not working. People are dying of hypoxia (starving for oxygen), without fluid in their lungs, and the ventilators may actually be accelerating their death by over-pressurizing and damaging their lungs. More on this below (unverified).

2- A standardized quick test has to be developed to identify the infected as well as the recovered, and it has to be done on a massive global scale. Those who test positive must be strictly quarantined and treated, and contact tracing must be improved to identify developing hotspots for immediate action to halt the spread. Those who already have the antibodies should return to work, and school, and start ramping up production. Those who are not infected/recovered need to be working remotely or work with very limited in-person human contact so they do not get infected. Meanwhile, the most vulnerable demographics must remain in isolation as much as possible, and certain places, like hospice and assisted living, must be thoroughly protected by law enforcement if necessary to keep the risk as low as possible.

 

Unverified, but potentially a major clue in understanding the fatal effects of Covid-19.

There is a growing body of feedback from ICU doctors that COVID-19 is being misdiagnosed as ARDS (acute respiratory distress syndrome). This video from a NYC doctor running an ICU is one of the few that are speaking up about it. Obviously, if the ventilators are doing more harm than good, then we need to change tactics, fast.

There is an unverified note going around that the virus disassociates (breaks off) the iron ions from the hemoglobin, causing two things: (a) the infected hemoglobin can no longer bind with oxygen, and (b) once disassociated the free roaming oxidative iron ions are toxic and killing off cells in the lungs (this shows up in the cat scans as large patches of glassed over tissue). When enough hemoglobin has become non-viable, SPO2 drops precipitously, and no amount of ventilator pressure can re-oxygenate the damaged hemoglobin. Hence, other organs starve for oxygen, shut down, and then death. More and immediate research on this is needed. Some doctors are using supplemental oxygen if they catch it early enough in the hope of buying enough time for the patient's immune system to fight the virus. This may help healthier, younger individuals, but for many it is not enough. Others are using convalescent plasma, but again it is only helpful if done early and with those strong enough to survive the infection. Some discussion is taking place about using whole blood, not just plasma, but this is totally untested. 

These are some of the things to keep an eye on.  

 

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Treasury Secretary Mnuchin announced the end of May as the point where the economy reopens, but he is just another spouting off with no facts to back up his words.  For too long, the world has turned to the USA in times of crisis as they sought the proper avenue.  You no longer can rely on the USA.  The leadership is not there and those in charge too often refuse to comport with the facts and instead will relay the scenario they wish would happen?

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I'll try to take us back on the right track. What say you to the following? 

Develop a serology test to see who has had the virus. If I am correct in my assumptions, I have already had it. These people should be tested further to determine the extent of immunity, if any, they have developed. Once these factors become more concrete, society would be safer to open up on a more limited basis to folks who feel more secure to work. It might be tough, but it is possible to develop some system where high risk people can be distanced until a vaccine can be developed to make them safer. This is all a pipe dream based upon the assumption that a vaccine can or will be developed. But it would allow people who feel they are not at risk to contract the virus because they already had it to be out in the world and start the economy off life support. Maybe this won't work, but if I don't get out of the house by may there are going to be other problems beside the virus on my horizon. 

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11 minutes ago, dominattorney said:

I'll try to take us back on the right track. What say you to the following? 

Develop a serology test to see who has had the virus. If I am correct in my assumptions, I have already had it. These people should be tested further to determine the extent of immunity, if any, they have developed. Once these factors become more concrete, society would be safer to open up on a more limited basis to folks who feel more secure to work. It might be tough, but it is possible to develop some system where high risk people can be distanced until a vaccine can be developed to make them safer. This is all a pipe dream based upon the assumption that a vaccine can or will be developed. But it would allow people who feel they are not at risk to contract the virus because they already had it to be out in the world and start the economy off life support. Maybe this won't work, but if I don't get out of the house by may there are going to be other problems beside the virus on my horizon. 

I understand that even those that are immune continue to shed the virus.    

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Just now, rcarlson said:

I understand that even those that are immune continue to shed the virus.    

Well, this should be tested further, is what I am suggesting. I don't think the jury is back on that question yet, and it is significant. Even if people with immunity can still shed the virus, what is the harm in letting those folks out in the world? The alternative is everyone stays home. 

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