I don't understand the Lockdown/shut down exit strategy?

[Jaesian]

7 minutes ago, Deeg said:

The first hotspot in the U.S. was the greater Seattle area.  It had a head start on everywhere else.

Now, for the record, WA is out of the top 10 states in terms of infections and deaths.

 

UW is a powerhouse for COVID testing. Absolute beast. I have a feeling that this likely contributed in a positive way to their trajectory. 

[gweilgi]

5 hours ago, bpm32 said:

Likely it’s a number of things, and of course I don’t know anything, but my pet theory is public transportation. Those of us on the west coast talk a big game about public transportation, but we don’t rely on it like the east coast cities do. Most of my family still lives in the Seattle area and when the city was going whole hog building every kind of tram, train, light rail, underground system, funicular, trolley, donkey cart system, etc., it was a huge source of conversation in my family about how it would change everything......yeah, the northern contingent of the family is still all driving SUVs through downtown Seattle.

Good thought, and while I am sure it will turn out to have an impact, I doubt that it is a major reason.  If you look abroad, Germans use public transport a *lot* but have far better infection and mortality rates.  Australians use the car a lot, and they have both low infection and low mortality rates -- despite the fact that Downunder is a major destination for Chinese tourists and travellers.  

 

4 hours ago, Ej456 said:

I’m no germ doctor but best thing I think you can do is don’t touch your face with a dirty finger and limit your trips to the food store. Anything else is luck or not. 

Touching our faces appears to be hardwired, instinctive behaviour, or so the BBC informs me.  And limiting trips to the shops would be far easier if the *£&%£*%@ing hoarders would stop stripping the shelves bare of everything and anything.

Obsessively washing hands properly seems to be the only thing that works.  I use a 4% chlorhexidine solution every time I re-enter the house, for a minimum of 30 seconds and using the method prescribed for surgeons.  

[nKostyan]

You need to understand how any pyramid of power works: specialists from below, managers from above. Both always take for us redundant measures. In the case of coronavirus, there is not enough information. The main danger is the lack of places in infection hospitals, in particular, equipment for artificial ventilation of the lungs. By imposing restrictions, the authorities are trying to slow down the rate of infection, so that hospitals can withstand the spate of patients. Along the way, the genetic evolution of the virus is expected - adaptation to a human as a carrier. The nature of the virus is that the parasite is not interested in destroying the host. Also, in many countries, virus epidemics end with the onset of summer.
We are currently monitoring the epidemic and developing a vaccine. I think that as the spread decreases, countries will gradually lift the bans. At the same time, this will cool the global economy, which has been growing in recent years.

There is another factor - political. Politicians are afraid of losing votes because the country's medicine may not be able to cope. Some politicians are already competing on the international stage “who has the best health care”.

[inter4alia]

5 hours ago, Kitchen said:

Although not necessarily pleasant to talk about, economists have a metric referred to the "value of life" amount, meaning how much is one life worth in real dollar amounts.  They calculate this by surveys and trying to determine what the average citizen would be willing to pay to save one life.  The amount is $8M to $9M per life.  

For all policy decisions that involve life and death issues, the value of life will be a factor to determine the path forward, not to mention it will naturally, albeit subconsciously, determine how we as a society operate.  

Given the significantly lower then expect fatalities, and the much higher then expected economic damage due to this shut down, we will reach this figure of $8M to $9M cost per life (total economic cost divided by potential deaths) faster then thought.  At that point, whether those in power want it to or not, we will go back to work.  Politicians can fight it if they want, but it wont matter.  People will go back to normal life with permission, or be scofflaws and go back to normal life without permission.  End of story.  

You can insist otherwise now, but in a month, unless deaths uptick significantly, you will naturally start to feel differently.  There will be some individual exceptions, but overall, as a group, this will the mentality that develops.  Economist often say, if something cant last, it wont.  This cant last, and it cant last that long either just by what we are seeing happen, so it wont last that long, at least not in the USA.  

There is no doubt that some countries had underlying economic issues prior to this event, and this just made them clear.  In those countries, this could last a while. In most, I would say not though.  

The main focus of government right now should be to sure up the medical community before this naturally kicks in, and it will.  

If you disagree with me, think of it like this.  We all drive cars, but cars kill many people per year.  We could easily save many more lives that what this virus will kill by giving up cars, but we don't.  Having cars gives us a much higher value as a society then the value of those whom are killed by car accidents.  It does not sound nice to put it like that, and we all feel sad for victims of car accidents, but very very few of us are willing to give up the value a car brings us collectively then saving those lives would.  This is just one example, and there are plenty more.  It all works itself out in the wash.  

Bingo. Well said. 

[Diabolicalpherpher]

5 hours ago, NSXCIGAR said:

Might certainly be something to that. I don't know what the public transportation systems are like in Detroit, Chicago or New Orleans but they're all getting hit relatively hard.

And it still doesn't explain MA, VT, RI and CO that have limited public transit. VT and CO, in particular have extremely low population density. 

And while CA is very low, WA is still quite high. But if the virus was working it's way through the west coast in Nov-Dec surely WA would look like CA.

There are definitely some geographical oddities with this that may take a very long time to sort out. Again, antibody testing will tell us quite a bit about how this is moving and when.

For Colorado, it was because of skiing/snowboarding.  It could also be for VT but I’m not for certain.  One of the hotspots was Eagle County, home of Vail Mountain which is very well known internationally. The operators of Vail mountain also own other ski resorts around the area and offer discounted season passes that are valid to all of their ski areas.  This deal is very popular for the people of the front range area which include Boulder/Denver/Colorado Springs.  Now imagine all these people congregating and packing the ski lodge for lunch and bars at night. Then spreading the virus back down to the population center of CO.
 

As for MA, I believe it all started with a Biotech conference.  Boston area has lots of Biotech companies and research universities.

[Yellot00tr]

JPMORGAN: “We believe we’ve seen a peak in new case growth in the US 3-4 days ago,.. deaths will peak in about a week, so we look for a limited reopening of the economy in 1-2 weeks. .. And we think we will be able to recover the losses in equities sometime next year” (Kolanovic)
 

JPMORGAN: “Every recession typically accelerates pre-existing trends, such as work-from-home or a preference for online retail.. This will increasingly challenge traditional business models.. Looking ahead, ‘winner takes all’ is bound to remain the dominant theme within equities. The US will experience a slower rebound due to expected lingering damage to labor and credit markets. .. a significant wave of layoffs and business closures will continue to weigh on demand .. We forecast US unemployment rising to nearly 8.5%.” (Kasman) 

[CaptainQuintero]

5 hours ago, gweilgi said:

Good thought, and while I am sure it will turn out to have an impact, I doubt that it is a major reason.  If you look abroad, Germans use public transport a *lot* but have far better infection and mortality rates.  Australians use the car a lot, and they have both low infection and low mortality rates -- despite the fact that Downunder is a major destination for Chinese tourists and travellers.  

.  

 One thing that will need to sorted out before and real trends or patterns can be detected post-event is the nature of data provided.

 Eg German coroners record deaths vastly different to a lot of nations in this crisis; they only record the death as Covid if that was the single cause. If someone had heart issues, a previous stroke, asthma, obesity etc than the cause of death goes down as that previous health condition. If you track the number of deaths purely caused by Covid in Germany against France etc then their death numbers are pretty much the same. 

what is it, lies, damn lies and statistics?

  No matter the issue politics is still being played as normal, if anything more so. Public perception will be the primary anchor on which all national decisions are being made and governments will stand or fall based on how they get that balance right

 How many deaths will look like a tragedy, when does that number look like incompetence? How much strain will the public allow their healthcare sector to be out under before support turns to anger? There will be a lot of behavioural science taken with as much weight as economic or health centred decisions

 

[SigmundChurchill]

Yesterday, I saw a disturbing report involving several people who have had the disease, and recovered, and as much as a month after they started feeling normal, still test positive.  So they are still shedding the virus a month after they have gotten over the illness.  This has not been widely studied because we don’t have enough tests to test everybody ONE time, so hardly anyone been tested twice.

Which brings up a few questions in my mind:

1.  Are these just a few outliers, or is this something that will be more widespread?

2.  Is this temporary in these people, or is it permanent?

3.  Will the symptoms come back in these people, or will they just be, otherwise healthy, supershedders INDEFINITELY?  Typhoid Mary comes to mind, though that was bacterial, and this is viral, but a similar concept.

Hopefully, these are just rare outliers.  If not, any exit strategy will either rely on herd immunity, which means a lot more deaths, or an effective treatment for the disease.  Whichever comes first.  

 

[Eric05]

My thinking is the same as the Prez, the thought of stopping this by social distancing is not going to stop the initial wave. Sure what we are doing now is helping the hospitals. But the moment they lift the ban, if its spreading like it has already one person gets it and then boom its the affect all over. I do believe with some that it has been here already. In December, I got so sick, I was like shit for days. They tested me for the flu and I was negative. I am not one whom gets sick. I would believe I have a great immune system, "knocks on wood". But I can tell you it was the worst I have ever felt in my life. I am 34.

I think Trump kinda said it the best, the cure might be worse then the actual disease itself. All the people out of work, jobs gone, the economy in the shitter basically. It's going to effect more then the actual virus. It seems like China is back to work, people gathering and going out. It United States, we are going to be approaching our warmer months which will be a good thing. I think the media's coverage of this has been blown out of portion, scaring people with a death counter each day. Is it called for? When in the world have we said x amount of people died today from the flu, the coverage is just awful.

[dominattorney]

20 hours ago, NSXCIGAR said:

I think you've illustrated my point. Why isn't CA an epicenter? The homeless populations of SF and LA should be getting walloped. Much denser populations than anywhere in NY and higher risk factors. 

And why are Vermont and Massachusetts getting hit so hard?

Also, it's not just that it's an Asian population in CA per se, but just that much of the China travel to the US lands in CA first. 

 

CA was only 2 days ahead, and NY is 10 times worse. I'm sure it had some impact but I'm not convinced it explains all of it.

Everyone in NYC takes the subway. LA is a drivers city. Maybe that explains some. I know SF has the BART trains but I am not so sure it is as crucial to the transportation of the city as the NYC subway is. 

 

8 hours ago, SigmundChurchill said:

Yesterday, I saw a disturbing report involving several people who have had the disease, and recovered, and as much as a month after they started feeling normal, still test positive.  So they are still shedding the virus a month after they have gotten over the illness.  This has not been widely studied because we don’t have enough tests to test everybody ONE time, so hardly anyone been tested twice.

Which brings up a few questions in my mind:

1.  Are these just a few outliers, or is this something that will be more widespread?

2.  Is this temporary in these people, or is it permanent?

3.  Will the symptoms come back in these people, or will they just be, otherwise healthy, supershedders INDEFINITELY?  Typhoid Mary comes to mind, though that was bacterial, and this is viral, but a similar concept.

Hopefully, these are just rare outliers.  If not, any exit strategy will either rely on herd immunity, which means a lot more deaths, or an effective treatment for the disease.  Whichever comes first.  

 

I've posted this before, but the government actors who just shut down the country have a vested interest in this not being considered an overblown overreaction so they don't look like saps holding the bag. They also have an interest in the death toll reflecting 2 percent of confirmed cases, which anyone with a brain can debunk for themselves. They won't even test people in many states unless they currently have symptoms AND fit the high risk category, so there must be exponentially more people who have had the virus than the testing and reporting reflect. I've seen an article where they are finally starting to give credence to arguments that the virus actually swept through the u s as early as December and January, which reflects my own anecdotal experience. I had a horrible cough in early January that took 2 weeks to go away. Worst cold of my life. 

[Eric05]

36 minutes ago, dominattorney said:

I've posted this before, but the government actors who just shut down the country have a vested interest in this not being considered an overblown overreaction so they don't look like saps holding the bag. They also have an interest in the death toll reflecting 2 percent of confirmed cases, which anyone with a brain can debunk for themselves. They won't even test people in many states unless they currently have symptoms AND fit the high risk category, so there must be exponentially more people who have had the virus than the testing and reporting reflect. I've seen an article where they are finally starting to give credence to arguments that the virus actually swept through the u s as early as December and January, which reflects my own anecdotal experience. I had a horrible cough in early January that took 2 weeks to go away. Worst cold of my life. 

The cough I had was for 2 weeks, by far the worst cough I have ever had. I couldn't tell you how miserable I felt. I been married to my wife and her mother lol for the past 9 years. Both have never seen me sick and said that's the worst I've ever seen you

[SigmundChurchill]

12 hours ago, dominattorney said:

I've posted this before, but the government actors who just shut down the country have a vested interest in this not being considered an overblown overreaction so they don't look like saps holding the bag. They also have an interest in the death toll reflecting 2 percent of confirmed cases, which anyone with a brain can debunk for themselves. They won't even test people in many states unless they currently have symptoms AND fit the high risk category, so there must be exponentially more people who have had the virus than the testing and reporting reflect. I've seen an article where they are finally starting to give credence to arguments that the virus actually swept through the u s as early as December and January, which reflects my own anecdotal experience. I had a horrible cough in early January that took 2 weeks to go away. Worst cold of my life. 

I do understand what you are saying.  From my perspective, it would be hard to say that this is “overblown” though, because, as a doctor in the 21st century, I have never seen anything like this in my life.  The insides of our hospitals look like the apocalypse has arrived.  And while you may think that is an exaggeration, I am wondering if it is an understatement,  Every time I walk into the hospital, it feels like I am walking into the bowels of hell.  And I don't even believe in hell, but if I did, this is what I would imagine it would look like.  And all of the other hospitals in the NYC metro area are experiencing the same.  We have 6 ICUs which were all filled to capacity of people on ventilators a week ago, and now we have 10 other makeshift ICUs filled with patients on ventilators, and we are starting to convert more of the hospital into ICUs, which will soon be filled with people on ventilators.  And almost all of the patients on ventilators die.  In the last 2 days, we dropped our ventilator mortality rate down to 84%.  Normally, an 84% ventilator mortality rate would be our worst nightmare, but today, it is something to celebrate.  We have stopped doing anything else, besides taking care of COVID patients.  Even most cancer surgeries are on hold.  Our Morgue has been so filled to capacity, that we have been loading up 18 wheeler refrigerated cargo holds with bodies, being kept out in the doctors parking lot.  We are all walking around the hospital in protective gear from head to toe, and washing our hands 100 times a day after touching anything.  This all happened very quickly.

In contrast to the flu, every flu season, you wouldn’t even know that it is flu season in the hospital.  We may have 3 or 4 flu related pneumonia patients on a ventilator at any given time.  And the majority of them recover.

So, I really dont know what the right answer is.  Since any answer has horrible ramifications, I don't think anybody does.  Is the lock down futile?  Is the lock down keeping other areas of the country from becoming like this one?  I dont know the answer.  I do know that the health care system cant handle much more of this, so I have to hope it is at least slowing it down enough to give us a chance to breath in the near future.

Yesterday, as I was driving into the doctors’ lot, they were filling up another one of the cargo holds with bodies.  There have been several others filled before this one.  I snapped a couple pics, as a reminder to myself of how bad this really was, not that I think I will ever forget.

Sorry to those of you who are squeamish...

 

[CaptainQuintero]

  The herd immunity hasn't gone away, that's still the answer to this. You either get it via vaccination (6-18 months away) or by having the virus.

  Some nations decided to take it on the chin and go for that right away, until projections showed that the hospital's would collapse under the numbers. It happened with the UK and now some of the Scandinavian countries have reported 30% increase in deaths overnight, they're in that same curve. So this flatten the curve theme came about. You slow the rate of infection so that the hospital are running on a conveyer belt system, opposed to everything dumped in them at once.

  Eventually the herd immunity will gain momentum one way or another and the virus will start to loose the infection battle. Social distancing and lockdowns will help this. If lockdowns show to work the. There might be staggered easing of restrictions but spikes are likely so unless we're incredibly lucky, expect rolling lockdowns to manage peaks of numbers. If a working antibody test can happen then things like 'immune certificates' could happen to allow those to return to work

  There's thought that there are two strains of Covid too, L and S. One is looking mild and the other very nasty. It could go to explain why some areas within nations, nevermind actual nations as a whole seem to get absolutely clobbered.

  Economic hardship, or even devastation are coming on large to individual scales but when you have it or or exposed to your family and friends have it/ working with it in a healthcare setting you'll realise that this isn't simply numbers on a graph and economics go out the window. Governments will step up to the plate, if they haven't already, to bridge that gap or they will fall because this isn't going away quickly

[dominattorney]

11 minutes ago, SigmundChurchill said:

I do understand what you are saying.  From my perspective, it would be hard to say that this is “overblown” though, because, as a doctor in the 21st century, I have never seen anything like this in my life.  The insides of our hospitals look like the apocalypse has arrived.  And while you may think that is an exaggeration, I am wondering if it is an understatement,  Every time I walk into the hospital, it feels like I am walking into the bowels of hell.  And I don't even believe in hell, but if I did, this is what I would imagine it would look like.  And all of the other hospitals in the NYC metro area are experiencing the same.  We have 6 ICUs which were all filled to capacity of people on ventilators a week ago, and now we have 10 other makeshift ICUs filled with patients on ventilators, and we are starting to convert more of the hospital into ICUs, which will soon be filled with people on ventilators.  And almost all of the patients on ventilators die.  In the last 2 days, we dropped our ventilator mortality rate down to 84%.  Normally, an 84% ventilator mortality rate would be our worst nightmare, but today, it is something to celebrate.  We have stopped doing anything else, besides taking care of COVID patients.  Even most cancer surgeries are on hold.  Our Morgue has been so filled to capacity, that we have been loading up 18 wheeler refrigerated cargo holds with bodies, being kept out in the doctors parking lot.  We are all walking around the hospital in protective gear from head to toe, and washing our hands 100 times a day after touching anything.  This all happened very quickly.

In contrast to the flu, every flu season, you wouldn’t even know that it is flu season in the hospital.  We may have 3 or 4 flue related pneumonia patients on a ventilator at any given time.  And the majority of them recover.

So, I really dont know what the right answer is.  Since any answer has horrible ramifications, I don't think anybody does.  Is the lock down futile?  Is the lock down keeping other areas of the country from becoming like this one?  I dont know the answer.  I do know that the health care system cant handle much more of this, so I have to hope it is at least slowing it down enough to give us a chance to breath in the near future.

Yesterday, as I was driving into the doctors’ lot, they were filling up another one of the cargo holds with bodies.  There have been several others filled before this one.  I snapped a couple pics, as a reminder to myself of how bad this really was, not that I think I will ever forget.

Sorry to those of you who are squeamish...

 

I have heard the same from a friend who is an intensive care nurse in NYC. It is truly horrifying and I didn't mean to downplay the severity of the viruses impact on individuals. I should think more carefully before posting, but such is the nature of the internet. I still don't know what the right answer is, or as you say, whether anything government actors could have done would have slowed or lessened the impact. One thing is for sure, we will be dealing with both Healthcare and economic aftershocks for years to come. I wish you and all Healthcare workers the best in navigating this situation. 

[JamesKPolkEsq]

We're in the second inning here folks.

There's a long slog ahead, barring some Hail Mary therapy. 

Stay safe out there. It is extremely premature to discuss what happens after the pandemic recedes. 

Persistent reservoirs will be out there, India for example, and the fact that asymptotic carriers can slip through detection even with mature testing infrastructure makes this a public health nightmare. 

A few cases metastasize rapidly to a full blown crisis in a matter of weeks. Until this can be fundamentally addressed, this crisis will be ongoing. 

 

 

[FatPete]

I agree with the good Captain above-the key to this is getting immunity wether herd or via a vaccine (which I believe we may have within 6 months). I think there will be a slight loosening of restrictions and seeing what the hospitalisation rates do as a result. If there is no spike then progressive relaxation of restrictions until there is, and then tightening up again. What we also don’t know is if this is an annual hitting virus, or if there will be another peak in October/November as some models predict.

[JohnnyO]

"Value of Life" is a term most often used in Social and Political Sciences not by Economists. I have 2 Economics degrees (although from a Mickey Mouse University) and don't ever remember Keynes or Friedman often saying "if something cant last it wont". No need to discuss the point any further we have more important issues here. The Cali vs NY thing to me is weather/transportation issue. It has been said that the virus lasts longer in colder weather. That is to say in Miami's 85F it might last a few hours to 3 days on a surface but up to 39 days in NY 40F weather. Put 10 million people in 23 square miles using mass transit and there you have your recipe. It has been said that rain total in the Seattle area for 2020 is one of the highest on record, my guess is that helps in controlling the virus on outside surfaces (like a hand-rail) but it can stay alive in the run-off (or sewage water) for up to 3 days. It can also stay alive in the ocean for up to 3 days. So take off your shoes before you go into the house. Cali is like Miami, nobody likes the mass transit system and a lot of single drivers in the car. Self isolation already has a head start. Years ago I got the H1N1 virus and it was violent getting through it. Very similar in to what some current COVID-19 survivors are describing. The person that gave it to me died within 30 days at age 39. I honestly believe you could get this virus breathing someone's exhaled air if they are infected, never mind coughing or sneezing. European countries I feel will experience prolonged virus complications due to the weather/mass transit mix. I have no answers, only that 80F+ weather will control this better if we stay at home. I wish that all FOH'ers get through this. John

[earthson]

1 hour ago, dominattorney said:

 

I'veseen an article where they are finally starting to give credence to arguments that the virus actually swept through the u s as early as December and January, which reflects my own anecdotal experience. I had a horrible cough in early January that took 2 weeks to go away. Worst cold of my life. 

This is my question as well.  My nuclear family had the flu in January and is was easily the sickest I've been - it was a right mfer with high fevers, lots of dry hacking coughing and so much fatigue.  Even after "getting better," it took weeks for my lungs to heal up.  I've rarely had the flu and rarely get sick, but it was a bad one.

My oldest and I both sought medical treatment for symptoms and both of us tested positive for Influenza A (wifey and youngest are made of tougher material, I think; oldest and I are blood type o).  What I want to know is considering how unreliable the quick flu test is (results in 10 minutes right at the doctor's office, lots of documented false positives), is there a possibility that coronavirus can throw a positive for Flu A on a quick test?  I have not seen any news articles or resources anywhere mentioning this, none of my med industry friends and family are epidemiologists or virologists and I don't have paid access to the newest peer-reviewed medical journals.

[SigmundChurchill]

14 minutes ago, earthson said:

This is my question as well.  My nuclear family had the flu in January and is was easily the sickest I've been - it was a right mfer with high fevers, lots of dry hacking coughing and so much fatigue.  Even after "getting better," it took weeks for my lungs to heal up.  I've rarely had the flu and rarely get sick, but it was a bad one.

My oldest and I both sought medical treatment for symptoms and both of us tested positive for Influenza A (wifey and youngest are made of tougher material, I think; oldest and I are blood type o).  What I want to know is considering how unreliable the quick flu test is (results in 10 minutes right at the doctor's office, lots of documented false positives), is there a possibility that coronavirus can throw a positive for Flu A on a quick test?  I have not seen any news articles or resources anywhere mentioning this, none of my med industry friends and family are epidemiologists or virologists and I don't have paid access to the newest peer-reviewed medical journals.

This is not my field of expertise, but my educated guess says no.  Coronavirus and Influenza viruses are in different families.  The quick flu test, looks for antigens specific to the influenza virus, so I dont think coronavirus would trigger a positive result.  The quick test can be incorrect and you could have had a false positive, while having coronavirus at the same time.  But I think those two things are independent of each other.

[JohnnyO]

36 minutes ago, earthson said:

This is my question as well.  My nuclear family had the flu in January and is was easily the sickest I've been - it was a right mfer with high fevers, lots of dry hacking coughing and so much fatigue.  Even after "getting better," it took weeks for my lungs to heal up.  I've rarely had the flu and rarely get sick, but it was a bad one.

My oldest and I both sought medical treatment for symptoms and both of us tested positive for Influenza A (wifey and youngest are made of tougher material, I think; oldest and I are blood type o).  What I want to know is considering how unreliable the quick flu test is (results in 10 minutes right at the doctor's office, lots of documented false positives), is there a possibility that coronavirus can throw a positive for Flu A on a quick test?  I have not seen any news articles or resources anywhere mentioning this, none of my med industry friends and family are epidemiologists or virologists and I don't have paid access to the newest peer-reviewed medical journals.

Might be an apples and oranges thing but....According to the CDC Weekly Surveillance Report in 2009:

 

"Over 97% of subtyped influenza A viruses being reported to the CDC were novel influenza A (H1N1) viruses"

[SigmundChurchill]

28 minutes ago, JohnnyO said:

Might be an apples and oranges thing but....According to the CDC Weekly Surveillance Report in 2009:

 

"Over 97% of subtyped influenza A viruses being reported to the CDC were novel influenza A (H1N1) viruses"

I would think that would be a lot more likely because not only are they two viruses from the same family, but one is actually a subtype of the other.

[Hammer Smokin']

16 hours ago, Kitchen said:

Although not necessarily pleasant to talk about, economists have a metric referred to the "value of life" amount, meaning how much is one life worth in real dollar amounts.  They calculate this by surveys and trying to determine what the average citizen would be willing to pay to save one life.  The amount is $8M to $9M per life.  

For all policy decisions that involve life and death issues, the value of life will be a factor to determine the path forward, not to mention it will naturally, albeit subconsciously, determine how we as a society operate.  

Given the significantly lower then expect fatalities, and the much higher then expected economic damage due to this shut down, we will reach this figure of $8M to $9M cost per life (total economic cost divided by potential deaths) faster then thought.  At that point, whether those in power want it to or not, we will go back to work.  Politicians can fight it if they want, but it wont matter.  People will go back to normal life with permission, or be scofflaws and go back to normal life without permission.  End of story.  

You can insist otherwise now, but in a month, unless deaths uptick significantly, you will naturally start to feel differently.  There will be some individual exceptions, but overall, as a group, this will the mentality that develops.  Economist often say, if something cant last, it wont.  This cant last, and it cant last that long either just by what we are seeing happen, so it wont last that long, at least not in the USA.  

There is no doubt that some countries had underlying economic issues prior to this event, and this just made them clear.  In those countries, this could last a while. In most, I would say not though.  

The main focus of government right now should be to sure up the medical community before this naturally kicks in, and it will.  

If you disagree with me, think of it like this.  We all drive cars, but cars kill many people per year.  We could easily save many more lives that what this virus will kill by giving up cars, but we don't.  Having cars gives us a much higher value as a society then the value of those whom are killed by car accidents.  It does not sound nice to put it like that, and we all feel sad for victims of car accidents, but very very few of us are willing to give up the value a car brings us collectively then saving those lives would.  This is just one example, and there are plenty more.  It all works itself out in the wash.  

Thank you for posting this.

Even though I live across the border, I truly feel like our nations couldn't be more different. Posts, and subsequent responses to the above help me better understand our differences.

[Kitchen]

2 hours ago, Hammer Smokin' said:

Thank you for posting this.

Even though I live across the border, I truly feel like our nations couldn't be more different. Posts, and subsequent responses to the above help me better understand our differences.

I take it Canada is giving up cars then?  

It’s human nature, whether here, in Canada, or Southern Italy, where looting is breaking out.  

You can fight it, but you won’t stop it.  

As each day goes, those models keep on getting revised lower, and eventually the question will be asked, is this worth it?  

A new plan needs to be found, fast, or it will all go to shit.  We need a controlled release, or it will just naturally happen, regardless of locale.  What nationality is the person who started this thread BTW?

[HarveyBoulevard]

25 minutes ago, Kitchen said:

I take it Canada is giving up cars then?  

It’s human nature, whether here, in Canada, or Southern Italy, where looting is breaking out.  

You can fight it, but you won’t stop it.  

As each day goes, those models keep on getting revised lower, and eventually the question will be asked, is this worth it?  

A new plan needs to be found, fast, or it will all go to shit.  We need a controlled release, or it will just naturally happen, regardless of locale.  What nationality is the person who started this thread BTW?

He is Australian ?

[Hammer Smokin']

I don't agree that a new plan needs to be found. The existing plan needs to be followed.

Something tells me there is a fundamental difference to what you consider "it all going to shit" and what I consider "going to shit".

But again, these types of threads help me understand our differences.