Buy the fall?

[El Presidente]

Buy the fall? Too soon?

Thoughts?   

 

 

[Corylax18]

I'd buckle up, the fun hasn't even started yet.

I'm still dumping my bi monthly paycheck matches into my 401k and the companies profit share program, but only because I dont get my company match if I stop. I pulled all my discretionary investments almost 2 months ago, haven't jumped back in and have absolutely no desire to do so. 

I dont see anything on the horizon that gives me optimism. This fall is years over due, we haven't even lost the 40% we gained during the pandemic yet. The 40% gain that was propped up be free money as profits plummeted. We still have a ways to go before we hit fair value and when was the last recession that stopped at fair value?

[dominattorney]

I think there are few safe places to park your cash If you need it to be liquid. Maybe some high dividend paying securities if you think they will survive the recession. Dollar cost averaging index funds makes sense if it's a long term strategy. 

The real balls are in shorting right now, but I am too unsophisticated to play with the big boys in this field. 

[HarveyBoulevard]

Now is as good a time as any if your not in a rush.

I started buying about 29 years ago and I have been putting money in at the same time every month ever since.  The dollar amount has increased as my income has increased over time.  I usually put in any unexpected windfalls in lump sums.  Never have tried to time the market and I never will.  I guess it all depends on your timetable and when you need the funds.  I will admit I took some profits at the end of 2021 and beginning of 2022 but I just reinvested those.  I enjoy looking at the 'lifetime' charts instead of the 'daily' charts.  Always makes me smile and never makes me worry.

If I was retiring today or needed the cash in the short term, not sure I would be putting any money in at the moment though  

I agree with Cory...it may be a bit bumpy.

[BlueClaw]

Blood in the street for sure. Been here before and before that. In my past experience, my portfolios rocked after all the dust settled and recovery took hold. For this one, we may have to wait until end of 2023 to see the economy turning in the U.S. and global. for now, I'm holding on to both oars and drinking heavily and smoking (and more than my Monte's). If you got the balls, buy equities that you may have your eyes on but buy solid companies with profits and lots of cash flow. I'm fully invested but now starting to dip my toes in crypto (Etherum). It's a tuff go for us retirees but still hanging in...

 

Good Luck to All

[Corylax18]

9 minutes ago, dominattorney said:

The real balls are in shorting right now, but I am too unsophisticated to play with the big boys in this field.

I dont know how anybody can understand some of the short plays you can run these days. Its like putting together parlays at the sports book, leg after leg after leg. 

[dominattorney]

4 minutes ago, Corylax18 said:

I dont know how anybody can understand some of the short plays you can run these days. Its like putting together parlays at the sports book, leg after leg after leg. 

I certainly don't. I think you could buy some put options on major players in key industries you're betting against, but it would escape me how to properly value the option, and you can always pick the wrong player. 

[Nevrknow]

Keeping my dividend funds but got out a while back. I can let those ride. Waiting until prices are below cash on hand.....AGAIN. That or the government supported too big to fails circle around again. Remember AIG, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae? Damnnm!!!!  Easiest $$ I ever made. 

[DaBoot]

It’s down, may even level out or lose a few points more, down 20% for the year, I got back in and will add more if it drops another 5%. Finding the bottom is hard, gotta buy the way down a bit. Might take years ( a red wave more exact ) to dig out of this one….. 

[Bijan]

46 minutes ago, dominattorney said:

I certainly don't. I think you could buy some put options on major players in key industries you're betting against, but it would escape me how to properly value the option, and you can always pick the wrong player. 

Ever since covid buying options has been a terrible "investment". All the volatility has made premiums explode. I bought $200 Tesla January 2021 (I think) calls options 2-3 years out in 2018 for about $50. When Tesla was around $200. I definitely regret not holding them until 2020...

Anyways during covid and probably now the money has been in selling short term options and pocketing the inflated premiums but I don't feel i can manage the risk and it seems a lot of work for modest gains. With my limited capital I'm better off focusing on my job and buying index funds.

[sageman]

I'm about a year into the market. Had a small business before and that's where my money went. Actually escaped that well even with covid. Can't say the same for my small portfolio. Played into some riskier stocks to start, I'm down 20%. Started to set aside a biweekly amount to put into index funds, and that's down over 10%. I'm half tempted to move from index to shorter term riskier plays if everything is this volatile. That or follow @HarveyBoulevard's method and just keep stocking away at the index funds through good and bad.

[LordAnubis]

Im cash in hand waiting for the ASX to go below 6000 and i'll go all in. In the mean time put some money on BEAR.

[bates40]

Sold heavy re: all my equity position at the beginning of the year and am still taking daily hits on what is left. Not touching 401k or other retirement accounts, and still am contributing as they will take care of themselves, eventually. 

Got approved to short on my TD Ameritrade account and am pondering a small NFLX short, but have not had pulled the trigger yet. 

Saw a house in my California community sit for 3 weeks unsold recently. If housing and stock markets are simultaneously experiencing difficulties I will just hold cash for a year or so. 

[amberleaf]

All eyes on the Fed tomorrow, everyone is expecting an 0.75% lift in rates which will hopefully be already priced into the markets.

[dominattorney]

26 minutes ago, Bijan said:

Ever since covid buying options has been a terrible "investment". All the volatility has made premiums explode. I bought $200 Tesla January 2021 (I think) calls options 2-3 years out in 2018 for about $50. When Tesla was around $200. I definitely regret not holding them until 2020...

Anyways during covid and probably now the money has been in selling short term options and pocketing the inflated premiums but I don't feel i can manage the risk and it seems a lot of work for modest gains. With my limited capital I'm better off focusing on my job and buying index funds.

I have also heard that out of the know buyers are getting taken by thr sellers for the inflated premiums and only sophisticated buyers are getting anything close to a real value. It's a mess. 

[GolfT3]

All about your time horizon and capital needs. If you’re retiring in the very near term or have some major expenses coming, cash looks best right now. If you have a mid to long term perspective, I’d start dollar cost averaging in now. If a recession does bubble up late this year or early next year there could be another 15-20% downside on the table. More for tech. But in that scenario the rate cuts and stimulus just start pumping again. Historically speaking, multiples are looking pretty solid right now and any more pull backs would be a strong buy for high quality stocks.
 

The only real unique part of the current market is how much more downside risk there is in bonds. High inflation, rising rates, you’re better off in dividend stocks or real estate than fixed income for the foreseeable future.

[Kaptain Karl]

We really need the fed to jack rates higher than expected. Rip off the band aid, go into a recession, crush inflation and things should recover well. Keep pussy footing around it and it could get ugly. Mortgage rates just jumped well over a percent the last few days. They’re in the high 6’s now. Housing prices need to come down 10-15% to keep things moving. However I expect there to be up to 50% less homes sold this year as last year. Brutal to try to get someone who has a 3% interest rate to move when rates are at 7%. 

I don’t think there’s ever been a point in history where the federal government has made worse fiscal policy decisions in one year as they did in 2021. Absolutely brutal. 

[vladdraq]

 I would say short term bounce is coming. 

FOMC tomorrow, that will dictate the trend. 

[Ken Gargett]

7 hours ago, Nevrknow said:

Keeping my dividend funds but got out a while back. I can let those ride. Waiting until prices are below cash on hand.....AGAIN. That or the government supported too big to fails circle around again. Remember AIG, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae? Damnnm!!!!  Easiest $$ I ever made. 

when i worked in the States as a lawyer, i used to act for Fannie Mae (Fannie Mac not so much). that was before the insanity when they were a boring and staid organisation, not transgressing their borders. 

[Shaunster]

Time in the market beats timing the market as they say, but I guess that also depends on your age.

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[Pinkbottles]

13 hours ago, BlueClaw said:

Blood in the street for sure. Been here before and before that. In my past experience, my portfolios rocked after all the dust settled and recovery took hold. For this one, we may have to wait until end of 2023 to see the economy turning in the U.S. and global. for now, I'm holding on to both oars and drinking heavily and smoking (and more than my Monte's). If you got the balls, buy equities that you may have your eyes on but buy solid companies with profits and lots of cash flow. I'm fully invested but now starting to dip my toes in crypto (Etherum). It's a tuff go for us retirees but still hanging in...

 

Good Luck to All

I would wait a bit on crypto. It’s got quite a bit further to drop. The only one I’m confident in buying is btc and it’s not in a buy zone for me yet. Capitulation hasn’t happened yet. And I agree with others, equities have a good bit further to go. The fed is screwed right now. No matter what they loose credibility. My hope is that they hike 75bps every month until things cool off. They’re going to be taking a credibility hit regardless of what they do. 100bps would be better but I doubt they go that far

[dicko]

Ive been buying the dip aka catching a falling knife all the way down. I just need to build up at this stage having only begun investing in the last year and happy to think long term. Long bitcoin and shares (index funds). Next bull run Im going to have some cash on the side for bear market.
Great reading from some seasoned investors in this thread

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[BlueClaw]

'I would wait a bit on crypto. It’s got quite a bit further to drop. The only one I’m confident in buying is btc and it’s not in a buy zone for me yet. Capitulation hasn’t happened yet. And I agree with others, equities have a good bit further to go. The fed is screwed right now. No matter what they loose credibility. My hope is that they hike 75bps every month until things cool off. They’re going to be taking a credibility hit regardless of what they do. 100bps would be better but I doubt they go that far '

 

You're right about further to drop re crypto. I've been buying *very* small ($100) amount on the free-fall starting at around $1900. Only accumulated $400 to-date.  Maybe I'll end up with 1 coin by the time it's all done. I'm only dipping my small toe.. LOL

[joeypots]

I don’t think anyone can call a bottom or a top and a lot of famous investors agree. Dollar cost averaging works. “It’s different this time” has been proven wrong each time the markets peaked and bottomed in my experience. 

"I never buy at the bottom and I always sell too soon.” Baron Nathan Rothschild

Harvey nailed it. A little speculation here isn’t foolish, but buying the market systematically ensures you are buying more low than high.

[dageshi]

Don't try to catch a falling knife as the old investment proverb goes, wait for it to stick into something solid and stop vibrating.

The knife is still falling right now in my opinion because everyone's concern is inflation and it's not certain when or if it will be brought under control.

In the US assets of all types had a big run up during covid and there's plenty of space left to fall.

When and if it looks like inflation is back under control and starting to recede that's probably the time to get back in.