Impact of the new Coronavirus where you are?

[Fuzz AI]

4 hours ago, Ken Gargett said:

in fairness, that will only apply after the Prime Minister has been to see his favourite footy team on the weekend. way to set an example!

mind you, spoke with a mate of mine earlier who'd been at the local library. was saying that there was an old bloke who was assuring those assembled that there was no concern at all. 'australia is an island', he advised then. "so no chance of it taking off here". 

which might come as a surprise to those who already have it. 

 

He needs to self-quarantine as he (and the rest of the Cabinet) has potentially been exposed by the dirty potato, Peter Dutton.

[captaincaveman]

[CaptainQuintero]

10 hours ago, Lotusguy said:

I’m with Ken and others here - entire countries shutting down and governments implementing travel bans are anything but media hype. In fact, those measures probably should have been taken earlier (in hindsight).

I still don’t get why people hoard toilet paper of all things, though.

You can send all the brussel sprouts to me - love that stuff

  That's the long and the short off it, hence the UK decision to just try and delay it not stop it or close big events.

  There was only ever two options in a globalised world, completely cut off the country back in December when the news broke in China, or try to mitigate the effects as long as possible to give departments and systems to prepare. No westernised country was ever going to shut all borders back in December,  which leaves the option of trying to slow infections down as long as possible.

  The virus was always going to spread globally, a lot of governments have been making decisions based on public perception and trying to prevent panic, not about controlling the virus.

[FOHrty9er]

Ran out to pick up last minute items late last night after school closing announcements.  No meat, water, TP, junk food, frozen meals, etc.  Ironically, the produce department was completely unscathed.  C'mon people, eat your veggies, greens, and fruits.  Lots of nutrients to keep the body strong and healthy!

[mbflash80]

1 hour ago, FOHrty9er said:

Ran out to pick up last minute items late last night after school closing announcements.  No meat, water, TP, junk food, frozen meals, etc.  Ironically, the produce department was completely unscathed.  C'mon people, eat your veggies, greens, and fruits.  Lots of nutrients to keep the body strong and healthy!

Im sure at this point many of us are reacting to the rumors floating around that the lockdown is coming.  I also went to the supermarket at 11pm last night (cant remember ever doing that other than when needing medicine for a sick child) and the shelves were empty but boxes and boxes of food and supplies were in the aisles.  We loaded up on essentials just in case...things are going to get even crazier it seems.

[rcarlson]

2 hours ago, CaptainQuintero said:

The virus was always going to spread globally, a lot of governments have been making decisions based on public perception and trying to prevent panic, not about controlling the virus.

No doubt.  

[Cigar Surgeon]

I'll just leave this right here. Many people in the discussion not understanding relative risks or basic data analytics.

[JohnInCleveland]

9 minutes ago, Cigar Surgeon said:

I'll just leave this right here. Many people in the discussion not understanding relative risks or basic data analytics.

It boggles my mind how many people (not specifically referring to BOTL, in my personal experience) keep downplaying this.  It's barely taken hold and we aren't even extensively testing.  You can't put the toothpaste back in the tube, the schools are shuttered in Ohio for 3 weeks minimum.  I've been impressed by the reaction of state officials, but they're hamstrung by federal ineptitude.  

 

They really haven't even begun to test.  The number of cases is DRAMATICALLY higher than what's being reported.

Edited March 13, 2020 by JohnInCleveland
Typo

[rcarlson]

29 minutes ago, JohnInCleveland said:

They really haven't even begun to test.  The number of cases is DRAMATICALLY higher than what's being reported.

Certainly.  But since the testing has a high error rate (false negatives) prior to symptoms, which should trigger self quarantine, the testing may be no better than any other projections non-test projections with respect to federal response.    

[captaincaveman]

9 minutes ago, rcarlson said:

Certainly.  But since the testing has a high error rate (false negatives) prior to symptoms, which should trigger self quarantine, the testing may be no better than any other projections non-test projections with respect to federal response.    

But even with a false positive....wouldn't something that forced people into some sort of self quarantine help stem the rising tide?

[Philc2001]

3 hours ago, CaptainQuintero said:

  That's the long and the short off it, hence the UK decision to just try and delay it not stop it or close big events.

  There was only ever two options in a globalised world, completely cut off the country back in December when the news broke in China, or try to mitigate the effects as long as possible to give departments and systems to prepare. No westernised country was ever going to shut all borders back in December,  which leaves the option of trying to slow infections down as long as possible.

  The virus was always going to spread globally, a lot of governments have been making decisions based on public perception and trying to prevent panic, not about controlling the virus.

Given the observations and experience gained from SARS and H1N1, our preparedness and responsiveness should have been much, much stronger and far quicker. Instead, response to CV-19 has been dismal, verging on criminal. Politicians have crippled and sequestered the WHO and CDC, and world leaders have seriously proved unfit to deal with this pandemic. Although China was criminal in the early stages, a short time later they went over and above by quarantining an entire province, which is something no other country is likely to do.   

During H1N1 the estimated global death rate was very low at 0.02%, and yet a medical emergency was declared within 10-days of first infection, and the WHO declared it a pandemic just 11 days after first infection. And still there was a estimated 12,400 deaths from H1N1 in the U.S. By contrast it took 3 months, over 3,000 deaths, and China quarantining an entire province and literally welding people's doors shut before we even declared an emergency or declaring CV-19 a pandemic. WTF?!?!

What we should have learned from recent experience is, tests should have gone into high production immediately, travel screening and contact tracing should have started from day 1, medical professionals and facilities should have started preparations and stockpiling supplies from day 1, diagnosis protocols and quarantines should have been established immediately.

There is absolutely no explanation for this lapse, it has resulted in many thousands of people needlessly dying, and that number will rise sharply until there is a vaccine. This is not acceptable at any level. The focus right now is on containing and healing, but when this is done we need new leadership and a complete overhaul of the system for dealing with these inevitable outbreaks. This won't be the last, but hopefully it will be the one that forces change and creates a durable lasting program to protect our citizens.

[topdiesel]

Whether dealing with the actual virus or the aftermath of it's impact on your community, I hope everyone stays safe.  People worry me more than the actual virus (which does worry me) in these circumstances, so keep vigilant and hopefully most of you are prepared to deal with a lot of closures and shortages.

This part of California is getting a little nuts or aware (depending on how you look at it).  

[Mtlk77]

I was supposed to visit my father at hospital this week but visits are now forbidden

My girlfriend was supposed to pass her license Monday and it's canceled 

I'm really pissed right now and hope people won't be robbering shops 

Only good news is that the sun is here, it's gonna be a cigar beer fest week end 

[Capt. Corona]

Trying a lighter approach to this thread............

[CaptainQuintero]

1 hour ago, Philc2001 said:

Given the observations and experience gained from SARS and H1N1, our preparedness and responsiveness should have been much, much stronger and far quicker. Instead, response to CV-19 has been dismal, verging on criminal. Politicians have crippled and sequestered the WHO and CDC, and world leaders have seriously proved unfit to deal with this pandemic. Although China was criminal in the early stages, a short time later they went over and above by quarantining an entire province, which is something no other country is likely to do.   

During H1N1 the estimated global death rate was very low at 0.02%, and yet a medical emergency was declared within 10-days of first infection, and the WHO declared it a pandemic just 11 days after first infection. And still there was a estimated 12,400 deaths from H1N1 in the U.S. By contrast it took 3 months, over 3,000 deaths, and China quarantining an entire province and literally welding people's doors shut before we even declared an emergency or declaring CV-19 a pandemic. WTF?!?!

What we should have learned from recent experience is, tests should have gone into high production immediately, travel screening and contact tracing should have started from day 1, medical professionals and facilities should have started preparations and stockpiling supplies from day 1, diagnosis protocols and quarantines should have been established immediately.

There is absolutely no explanation for this lapse, it has resulted in many thousands of people needlessly dying, and that number will rise sharply until there is a vaccine. This is not acceptable at any level. The focus right now is on containing and healing, but when this is done we need new leadership and a complete overhaul of the system for dealing with these inevitable outbreaks. This won't be the last, but hopefully it will be the one that forces change and creates a durable lasting program to protect our citizens.

  The problem is that day 1 would have been mid December when Chinese doctors managed to break the government media blackout and warn others something was happening. That Day 1 protocol would have been to be seal the borders and completely close down all public spaces/workplaces/schools etc and begin quarantining any streets that had infected people living there. There's no way that would have been tolerated by an increasing self centred public or even to be able to be implemented on a national scale. 

  The only option open when it was clear that China had failed to control the virus was to try and control the spread as much as possible hence the UK strategy in the graph.

 Blue line shows the risk of too much early intervention; a second peak at the start of Winter 2020 which would collapse the health service entirely

  

 

[rcarlson]

1 hour ago, captaincaveman said:

But even with a false positive....wouldn't something that forced people into some sort of self quarantine help stem the rising tide?

Depends on its effect on the hysteria index.  Some things may be far more dangerous than the virus, and that needs to be considered.  

[FOHrty9er]

To follow with the lighter approach...

[Wookie]

Whilst I bemoan my outcast state of home confinement, I'm reduced to watching a replay of Central Coast Mariners vs. Brisbane because premier league and everyone else is cancelled. Hope you aussies keep the football going. 

[Philc2001]

1 hour ago, CaptainQuintero said:

  The problem is that day 1 would have been mid December when Chinese doctors managed to break the government media blackout and warn others something was happening. That Day 1 protocol would have been to be seal the borders and completely close down all public spaces/workplaces/schools etc and begin quarantining any streets that had infected people living there. There's no way that would have been tolerated by an increasing self centred public or even to be able to be implemented on a national scale. 

  The only option open when it was clear that China had failed to control the virus was to try and control the spread as much as possible hence the UK strategy in the graph.

 Blue line shows the risk of too much early intervention; a second peak at the start of Winter 2020 which would collapse the health service entirely

  

 

This chart is projecting 12 months, and we are only in month-3, it is theoretical. Notoriously missing from that chart is the USA.

There were some scientists reviewing this on TV.  The key factors in flattening out the curve is testing and having the facilities to care for the infected.  S. Korea is actually doing this way better than Italy, and at least in that regard this chart is inaccurate. The reason S. Korea is not shutting down like Italy is mostly because they ramped up testing very aggressively.  They are way ahead of any other country in testing. The U.S. right now is likely on the Red curve. We still don't have test kits available in most hospitals, especially in large cities and hot-spot areas where cases are rising rapidly. You can't contain it if you don't know who is infected and what they are doing. Maybe U.K. will have a better go, but if they don't ramp-up testing fast, they will follow the red or the blue curve. 

[mbflash80]

17 minutes ago, BirdDog said:

Can one of the MD’s on this board please confirm that single malt scotch is effective as a preventive? I need an expert opinion to show my wife. 

Where's DocBarry when you need him...no doubt smoking an Opus X in his Mahogany lined Den...ok that one might go over a bunch of heads...

[El Presidente]

32 minutes ago, BirdDog said:

Can one of the MD’s on this board please confirm that single malt scotch is effective as a preventive? I need an expert opinion to show my wife. 

I tried that in heavy doses yesterday. 

I am CV free today...but there are painful side effects 

[PigFish]

... I think this thread needs some pictures of my firearms collection...! -LOL

Carryon! -the Pig

PS I still think it should have been called the Robusto Virus.

[Akela3rd]

... I think this thread needs some pictures of my firearms collection...! -LOL
Carryon! -the Pig
PS I still think it should have been called the Robusto Virus.

You show that and you'll get a 30 day quarantine...

Sent from GJ 1151

[CaptainQuintero]

1 hour ago, Philc2001 said:

This chart is projecting 12 months, and we are only in month-3, it is theoretical. Notoriously missing from that chart is the USA.

There were some scientists reviewing this on TV.  The key factors in flattening out the curve is testing and having the facilities to care for the infected.  S. Korea is actually doing this way better than Italy, and at least in that regard this chart is inaccurate. The reason S. Korea is not shutting down like Italy is mostly because they ramped up testing very aggressively.  They are way ahead of any other country in testing. The U.S. right now is likely on the Red curve. We still don't have test kits available in most hospitals, especially in large cities and hot-spot areas where cases are rising rapidly. You can't contain it if you don't know who is infected and what they are doing. Maybe U.K. will have a better go, but if they don't ramp-up testing fast, they will follow the red or the blue curve. 

  That's the long and short of it, and crucially what the media and a lot of governments, for whatever reason, are not saying. There is no containing this. That isn't a scare tactic, it's simply the standard approach that's taken to anything of this scale thats moved past a certain stage.

   That containment option, if it ever was a realistic option, disappeared back in December. All the actions being taken now is to try and delay the rates of infection. Testing, especially outside of hospitals, becomes less important as the numbers scale up. Expect testing to be going down and triage to replace it.

  It's fair to say there's little to no correlation between different nations and what they are doing and the numbers of reported infections. Italy and Japan both have very old demographics, but are on the opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of infected numbers. This could be down to testing rates, statistic suppression or something else we can't see. It was thought that Italy had s different strain due to the high death count, but it's turned out that they simply had no idea how many were infected. They had an official count which in no way reflected the reality. Denmark is another wild outlier that bucks the known trend.  

  Essentially it's coming down to that fact that testing is only telling you what the person you test has or doesn't have. It doesn't help treat the virus and we've moved past the stage where nations are trying to trace and track infected individuals. Energy is moving from testing to triage as it comes apparent that the potential infected numbers is going to be very large.

  The rolling news will be shifting from testing and confirmed cases, to estimated numbers of infected, then to numbers of hospital beds when in actuality it's ventilators which will be the crucial item. This whole idea of delay and not contain is to give the government time to acquire the ventilators etc that they wouldn't otherwise have time to get if they shut down schools/workplaces straight away to make people think this was being contained

[PigFish]

26 minutes ago, Akela3rd said:

You show that and you'll get a 30 day quarantine...

Sent from GJ 1151
 

Jesus... now that worries me! Dying and not having access to FoH...! The horror!

-Piggy