So how Long will This last: How would you define the US Global Political and Economic Position Today and Moving into the Next Half Century?

[El Presidente]

After yesterdays rant by my beloved mate that we cannot discuss US political issues here. Let's give this one a try.

Couple of rules (strictly enforced)

No mention of Obama/Dems (nor implication)

No mention of Republicans (nor implication)

No slighting of anyones. opinion. Play the ball and not the man.

Get to 150 posts and I will draw a Partagas Gran Lusitania for all posters in a draw

Mind you, Be on topic and a minimum 30 word (meaningful) post.

if it get's out of hand ..it gets deleted (thread) to be clear that means any personal or cultural attack.

Let's see how this goes.

for the record, i don't believe it can be done. Prove me wrong

[El Presidente]

So let me start.

I have been to the US 22 times. I love the place. The reality economically is that until recently 1 in 4 consumer dollars spent in the world is spent in the US. Dealing with Asia daily, and noting an Asian press (Australia is presented as the likely food bowl for Asia, the largest evolving middle class that the world has ever seen) that the axis is changing (for ourselves and globally).

Yet, I can't get my head around the fact that US companies still provide my credit cards (AMEX/Visa/MasterC) Paypal, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft etal. they produce most of our farming equipment in Massey f/ John Deere, Aircraft that I fly in Boeing, Defence acquisitions for our countryand plenty more of the things that each and all of us do day to day.

is the death of US influence (and influence well earned) overstated? or is it underestimated?

God I hope I win this Party Lusi Gran Reserva

[Maxismoke]

Lived in The US 1994-2000, Spent most of the time flying around the southwest. Loved every minute of it and made a bunch of great friends.

Visit the US at least once a year and i'm sad to say i feel the US is slipping. Pretty much anyone i talk to that i got to know back in the 90's say the times are harsher. People care less about the fellow man and the "murica's number ONE" way of thinking is taking hold more and more. The rest of the world is just not of interest to the average guy/girl. They "know" they are the best at pretty much everything, and that's good enough for them.

Last year i visited Phoenix for the first time in 14 years, and the amount of poor people/beggars was staggering compared to last time around.

Just an observation, i'm not smart enough to answer El Presidentes question.

[Fuzz]

Personally, I feel it is a little overestimated. US Dollars have been traded as an international currency for decades and pervades all economies across the globe. The US has been slipping in recent decades with the emergence of China, but the death of the US influence is still a long time away.

For Australia and other Pacific nations, it may come sooner than anywhere else, but it will still come eventually. As one empire rises, another must fall.

And I hope I'm the one who wins the Party Lusi GR!!

[kingy]

I don't think it is necessarily the death of US influence as such. You have to think why the US had that influence in the first place. Military muscle, technological advancement or simply that the US foreign influence and finances benefited greatly from WW2 and other country's were either too impoverished from years of underdevelopment fueled by the ruling class ( China and Russia) or the years of War that took their toll ( most of Europe) leaving the US to "influence" as they saw fit. You could argue that other powers are simply redressing the balance. We have been lucky (western country's) to be an ally of the US and as a result have the "we are the good guys mentality" but a lot of good people in a lot of country's don't have that luxury. China, if they avoid a civil uprising, have an interesting model. They are either just going to make countries so financially dependent on them they are powerless to act or buy everything in sight until they own the world.

I don't think for a moment that the US will not be vying for top global dog but I think they may have to realise that it will not be so one sided and they can't do what they want with their foreign policy and have no repercussions.

For the record- I am Scottish and live in Australia. Don't ask me about Scottish independence!!! Rob may kick me off the forum.

[LordAnubis]

Never been there nor do iintend to. My opinions on their economy though is it's quickly crumbling. The entire monetary system the world uses though is the biggest scam in history designed to make a select few people very very rich.

I once read the most eye opening thing. The USD is now backed by one thing. The US Military. I think that sums up how poor a currency it is.

For a good non-mainstream news sourced review of american economy and tips etc, google Daniel Amerman. He has some interesting articles on his website.

[anacostiakat]

Well, in the short I can think of two things. One is that in today's climate it is more difficult to be of influence and therefore I believe the US global politcal position is declining in that respect. But it could be argued that it is an adjustment and certainly not a death.

Two. Today we have much more of a global economy. True there are still American companies that do well but the actual manufacturing is all over the place. A lot of the advantages the US has today are going to be difficult to sustain long term. Our economy has suffered like most recently and rebounding has been much slower than what is needed. I think this affects the global position.

Remember, among the top selling cars in the US, the Japanese companies are always at the top.

[Blakes]

I think the next few decades will be interesting to say the least.

Like LordAnubis said the monetary system is complete scam, and a scary one at that.. which unfortunately most of the world has adopted, sooner or later it's only going to lead to a full collapse making the recent one look like nothing.

I think/fear the more we see the US lose its influence and place as the world's top dog, and with the growing economical unrest at home I think we will see an increasing aggressive foreign and domestic policy.

[ajgagnon]

It's hard to imagine that the US isn't declining in influence in relative terms, however the story will play out in decades, not years, and like the UK, even if the US declines as the dominant economy/military, it will remain powerful, a source of innovation and technological leadership. That said, what I see is China buying up resources across the globe, including in my back yard (Alberta's oil sands) and around the world in strategic materials like lithium, fertilizer, energy, etc.

One of the most interesting quotes I have heard recently was from Amory Lovins of the Rocky Mountain Institute in the US, a "think & do" tank for energy efficiency. Besides talking about China using new energy supplies (coal) to create new energy generation (solar) for the long term, he talked about being in a meeting at the Pentagon and having to leave to meet at the Chinese embassy (I'm thinking uh-oh, spy alert) to explain his concepts of using energy efficiency to avoid having to build new energy generation in China, while revitalizing that economy, and the US Admiral said, "Godspeed, that effort is critical to the health and survival of both our nations."

[Hash]

Certainly there has been much debate on the decline of American power (influence) in the world,triggered by costly military interventions around the globe, and the financial burden that these interventions brought upon the American economy.But how does one measure power,if in terms of Technology , the US is still second to none,in terms of military readiness the US is still strong, we must also consider Soft Power, many of us like American brands , from Levi's to iPhones , not to forget all internet traffic pass through the US.An important fact that we should keep in mind is that by 2018 the US will be an Oil producing country and its dependence on oil imports will be greatly reduced.The US dollar is still recognized as the major reserve currency in the world , the Euro did not make much inroads in this regard. America is not losing its influence in the world yet, although it is being challenged.

[Stanislaw]

In a nutshell, if people ask me what is wrong with my country, I tell them to watch popular reality television. Drama, selfishness, a lack of understanding, patience, a need to be praised for anything, a need to own the best, the most, the biggest.... A freak show. The very fact that it's called "reality" television shows you an Americans ability to bend the truth for their own purposes.

Our culture is a mess. When I was a kid on the south side of Chicago, people weren't thinking, "I need to create a start up website and make billions" they were immigrants and ethnic people who wanted to be a part of the great American dream.

The middle class is gone because we killed it. Nobody wants to be average and stable in america. It's all or nothing. And a lot of people have nothing.

And believe it or not, it's that mentality that keeps us on top. For now.

[Marker]

The US does have a lot of current world influence. As long as we keep spending like we do that will continue. Unfortunately we can't keep spending like we do. Other countries are going to own the US if we keep on this path. In order to secure the future of the US we are going to need to step back and secure our financial future.

[DoubleDD]

I agree the US has issues but I think it still has less issues than any other country. China had a huge boom, however, can they handle a huge collapse? Everyone has a mis-step and a fall, including the US. It is how they handle that fall. We had our tails licked in the last 10 years with the housing market bubble. Economies tend to show cycles and there are peaks and valleys. I don't see the US sliding into complete turmoil. Certain presidents do things better than others and thank God they can only hold office for a maximum of 8 years, that goes for both parties. With a new election of a president and complete cabinet within the next 2 years or so the atmosphere will change. I still think the US is stronger than any other nation, economically and militarily. People fear China, but does China have the infrastructure and support to handle economic issues with it gets tough? There are signs there may be issues with the housing market there and default on bonds. China will do it's best to hide the truth and usually does, as any government. A global slow down in demand for goods also impacts China. The global market is connected like a chain, only as strong as it's weakest link. So, has the US changed? Of course. Will the US fall? No. If the US falls, so does the world, it has too much consumer demand and no one can fill the void. China's manufacturing will take a huge impact if that happened and that will also punch China in the gut. The US influence has changed and the way it is viewed has changed, not nearly as favorable as past decades. Sometimes it over steps it's bounds. They cannot be the world police and should only act when completely necessary. Other countries seem too afraid to act so the US takes the lead. Without the US in it's typical role the world would be a worse off place.

[Fosgate]

The United States is coming to the transition of a global economy and is realizing it is not the power house it once was since rebuilding Europe after WWII and was the seller of a vast amount of the world goods. Focus is shifting now to Beijing and New Delhi as those locations are quickly expanding even through a worldwide recession. While some companies have learned to streamline others simply continued down their wasteful path they were used to when they didn't have to worry so much about foreign companies. They relied on the U.S. Govt to slap down a tariff to protect them from foreign companies. However, the govt is no longer willing to do that as you see what happened when George W Bush tried to slap steel companies with a tariff for dumping steel in the U.S. market at prices lower than the companies production costs in their own countries in an effort to cause market instability for U.S. steel companies. China retaliated with tariffs of it's own and the issue was then dropped. Notice what happened when U.S. automakers were in trouble? No one talked about leveling the playing field with foreign manufacturers who didn't have the huge overhead of paying for retired employees through tariffs. They simply told U.S. companies they need to become more efficient as they allowed them to break contract obligations in an effort to streamline. (An effort GM still couldn't get right until Fiat bought them).

I don't think we will know for a good 15-25yrs where we stand in the world. European companies are also having to adapt to the efficiency of an Asian market as well. Question will be is what companies will remain in the next few years and see how they perform once this shakeout approaches closure. China and India's labor costs are quickly increasing so if we see that advantage greatly reduced they will no longer be the booming economies they are today. Then who's next?

[canadianbeaver]

Coming from a political family ( my father is a politician), I hear people rant about the ineffectiveness of government and the incompetence of politicians so much I blocked these comments out years ago. My response is "How about those Blue Jays?".

I visit the US often and look at our streets in Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver. The number folks living on the streets in blankets is pretty common. I am not always sure if the people on the street begging are scammers or not, but even if half are really in need, that is pretty bad.

If we look at our society by our weakest members, and compare them to our most fortunate, we really are not so hot as we think we are.

[jangoman88]

The way I see it living here is that our influence is slipping no doubt , along with our dollar. You can go to just about any store and no matter what you're picking up is made over seas primarily China. The way I see our country going is we're becoming dependent on these goods to supply us and in turn we're losing jobs here. I hate to sound like a doomsday prepper but I do believe at some point, especially the way we are going that we will have some sort of major/catastrophic economic collapse.

[KoreanCowboy]

Interesting lines of thought here and most are saying that American influence is overestimated, which honestly can't be farther from the truth.

Which is the first country that the world looks to for help when there is a disaster?

Which is the first country that's asked for money?

Which is the first country asked when there are military injustices?

Which country pays for the UN to operate?

Which country provides most other countries with food and monetary subsidies?

Seeing a common theme here? The really unfortunate thing is that there is no more American pride or rather that American pride is so low that it's ridiculous. America was great because people thought and BELIEVED we were. Now we all want the American dream handed to us. That being said, our pocketbooks are still the most influential in the world economy and will be until another country can provide a steady global economy for 50 plus years.

[KoreanCowboy]

Focus is shifting now to Beijing and New Delhi as those locations are quickly expanding even through a worldwide recession.

You forget to point out that the only reason India has such a booming "economy" is because of US based businesses trying to save money and locating factories there. India doesn't have a need for textile factories making Hanes underwear. Those factories are there to supply Americans with clothing. China's boom started because of the US. It was and still is a cheap labor market. We think our influence is slipping in the world because we import so much, but that should only stand to prove that our influence is so much greater than anyone else's.

Most countries with developing economies will find that their economies only exist because of the US. Like it or not, the world still needs the US.

[ElOsoBlanco]

Living in Canada I can't tell you how hilariously uninformed much of the anti-Americanism is, especially on the topic of the economy. Since the financial crisis most of my Torontonian friends have been strutting around like ***** in the roost talking about the decline of America and how Toronto is the new NYC, etc. These people have no clue that Canadian prosperity has been fueled entirely by leverageing debt, while since 2008 the US economy has successfully been deleveraging and simultaneously making tremendous gains in productivity. Since the financial crisis Canadian productivity growth has not even kept pace with inflation, which has been at record low levels. The United States still has tremendous problems, but these are chiefly political problems that are themselves the result of blundering malinvestments in stupid wars in the Middle East and Central Asia and a politically convenient, completely unnecessary and wealth-destroying "war on terror." The facts are that American skilled workers are far and away the most productive in the world--it's not even close: one American engineer, for example, will happily do twice the work--and do it better--than my Canadian colleagues. And the development of shale gas--a revolutionary technology brought to us by, you guessed it, Americans--will likely make the Americans entirely energy independent within a decade or so.

A lot of my fellow Canadians are as equally ignorant about Asia. They are almost giddy at the prospect of China eclipsing our neighbor to the south, as if it is really in anyone's best interests to promote the rise of a corrupt, brutally oppressive autocratic regime. I don't even bother explaining to them that China's growth is still based almost entirely on labor arbitrage and that that is an economic model that is only sustainable in the short-to-medium term. If you are betting on the long-term success of China you have to show how that economic model will be capable of the rates of innovation required to sustain it.

[ElOsoBlanco]

Also, my first post here. After enjoyably lurking for six months!

[Maxismoke]

Interesting lines of thought here and most are saying that American influence is overestimated, which honestly can't be farther from the truth.

Which is the first country that the world looks to for help when there is a disaster?

Which is the first country that's asked for money?

Which is the first country asked when there are military injustices?

Which country pays for the UN to operate?

Which country provides most other countries with food and monetary subsidies?

Seeing a common theme here? The really unfortunate thing is that there is no more American pride or rather that American pride is so low that it's ridiculous. America was great because people thought and BELIEVED we were. Now we all want the American dream handed to us. That being said, our pocketbooks are still the most influential in the world economy and will be until another country can provide a steady global economy for 50 plus years.

Not sure what "Which country provides most other countries with food and monetary subsidies?" means, but in percent of GDP foreign aid the US is #19

And yes, the US pays some of the cost of the UN, 22% to be exact.

[Maxismoke]

The facts are that American skilled workers are far and away the most productive in the world

What might be the source of that claim? :-)

[Marker]

Not sure what "Which country provides most other countries with food and monetary subsidies?" means, but in percent of GDP foreign aid the US is #19

And yes, the US pays some of the cost of the UN, 22% to be exact.

What is the foreign aid in total dollars rank? Not percentage of giving. I would look but not sure where you got the data.

[ElOsoBlanco]

What might be the source of that claim? :-)

You can easily find ILO and comparable stats online. In stats, like, e.g. GDP per worker hour, the US' only competition is Norway, but the latter's stats are grossly inflated by the fact that Norway's GDP per capita is inflated not by productivity but by natural resources (e.g., oil production). In narrower measures of skilled worker productivity, that take out un-and low- and moderately-skilled jobs (like manufacturing)--the US leads by huge margins.

[DrunkenMonkey]

I think that the whole "America's influence relative to the rest of the world" angle is the wrong way to look at things. So many people here in America (and in other places, evidently) think that somehow the prosperity of China, or India, or Brazil is a threat to the US, that economic success is a zero sum game, and if one country does well, that means that somehow other countries are hurt by it. This is ridiculous. The more prosperous your neighbor is, the more opportunities there will be for economic interaction, and the more business will be done among all of us.

That's not to say that the US economy isn't really vulnerable just now (as are most major economies, I think). There are many things that could cause big problems in the medium to long term, such as the reckless inflating of the money supply, the student loan bubble, inflation in both education and health care costs, and the government's financial obligations in these areas. But it isn't the success of China that will have hurt America, it will all have been self-inflicted.

As to the opinion of the rest of the world re: America, I think that if at some point there is a government in Washington that isn't totally hypocritical regarding foreign policy, doesn't go around starting wars to promote its own interests, etc., then America will be more respected. But I was born in 1969, and there hasn't been such a government in Washington in my lifetime, and I'm not holding my breath. If America comes through the next couple of decades in good shape, it will be despite the government's policies, not because of them.