EV vehicle question

[El Presidente]

I mentioned the other day that I was looking at a Ioniq  N6 electric as a toy. I intend to keep my N130 6 shift stick. 

I am electric/ICE agnostic. I need to upgrade one of my cars in the next 6 months and am not locked into either tech. 

However I do have a question in relation to the second hand market of EV's given I change cars every 5 years. 

Let's say I have a choice tomorrow of purchasing either a Porche Taycan electric or a Porsche Panamera 4.

I travel 12,000 km a year so after 5 years 60,000 km. 

My question (which the dealerships fob off) related to the resale value of each after 5 years. 

I pretty much know what the ICE will achieve. I am not sure what the electric will achieve.  As I mentioned to the dealer that they could solve my conundrum by providing a guaranteed buy back figure on the EV. They declined. 

Is it a legitimate concern on "top spec/luxury" EV's that continued battery evolution (and existing battery degradation), makes them vulnerable to the depreciation rate of a Range Rover....or worse 

Would love your thoughts. 

[benfica_77]

Absolutely high end / sport EVs will depreciate in value significantly since a full battery replacement will need to be done around 100K and will cost 10's of thousands to replace. 

Now lets looks at Porsche vintage 911s from the 80, and early 90s are now worth a small fortune (which sucks because I would love me one) air cooled....mechanical and highly coveted. 

Prez don't go with the Panamera they also depreciate in value rapidly. Get the Cayman 718 will hold value and is a beast of a car. 

[amberleaf]

Here in pomland the used EV market is on its arse right now and I believe it's a similar story in Europe and North America. Many fleet buyers purchased them to benefit from government incentives and tax breaks and now they have reached three years old they are being dumped on the market but the demand isn't matching supply. And like in Aus, the dealers are not offering a guaranteed future value on EVs like they do with ICE cars.

From a financial point it makes no sense to buy a new EV right now. What you save on fuel/tax breaks/incentives will be more than wiped out by depreciation.

[Chibearsv]

Taking collectability out of the equation, wouldn’t EVs be subject to the same sort of rapid obsolescence as other “high tech” items?  I suppose a future prediction of value would depend highly on the pace of technological advancement. It would be interesting to see what residual values are being used in lease terms as a starting point and then follow how those trend over time. 

[KCCubano]

8 hours ago, benfica_77 said:

Absolutely high end / sport EVs will depreciate in value significantly since a full battery replacement will need to be done around 100K and will cost 10's of thousands to replace. 

Now lets looks at Porsche vintage 911s from the 80, and early 90s are now worth a small fortune (which sucks because I would love me one) air cooled....mechanical and highly coveted. 

Prez don't go with the Panamera they also depreciate in value rapidly. Get the Cayman 718 will hold value and is a beast of a car. 

Yep. I had 911s from both 80s and early 90s. Sold for more than what I paid.

[El Presidente]

1 hour ago, benfica_77 said:

Prez don't go with the panamera they also depreciate in value rapidly. Get the Cayman 718 will hold value and is a beast of a car. 

I just used that as an example 

I am rarely brand driven (excuse the pun). 

[Edicion]

With EVs I see parallels with mobile phones. If you buy one and keep it 3-5 years, it might still be ok to keep, but would you confidently buy a second hand mobile with 3-5 years on it? I wouldn't trust the hardware on it. Same goes for me and EVs. 

Having said that, recently spent time in China taking Uber (equivalent is called Didi) and major cities are 80-90% EVs. Look up new BYD, Maxus cars and other top Chinese EV brands that make Tesla's look ordinary. They look and feel incredible, and reasonably priced. Then with those EVs I could buy and drive and not worry about depreciation. 

[Marco_011t556]

For EV cost structure, battery contribute 40-50%, electric motor 10%, control system 10%, parts 10%, others (tyres, assembly labour cost).

Most of the case, batter depreciate 5-10 years, control system/parts 10 years.

Resale value of the EV car after 5 years...battery write off or 50%, others remain 50% of the useful life..

In total, after 5 years, at most, you can keep 50% of resale value, or around 20% (coz EV cars technology changes every year.. people rarely buy second handed EV).

[helix]

 

1 hour ago, Chibearsv said:

Taking collectibility out of the equation, wouldn’t EVs be subject to the same sort of rapid obsolescence as other “high tech” items?  I suppose a future prediction of value would depend highly on the pace of technological advancement.

One hell of a pace. 

[LLC]

8 hours ago, amberleaf said:

From a financial point it makes no sense to buy a new EV right now. What you save on fuel/tax breaks/incentives will be more than wiped out by depreciation.

Agree. If you want an EV, better to lease so you can just walk away. Buying has lots of downside and I can’t see any upside.


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[PigFish]

Panamaras are known for some big hits in depreciation. I think a used one is a good choice.

I drove a Taycan for a short while and disliked almost everything except the looks. What was great for me, is if I was working without an office, I could sit in it all day with the AC on and not think twice about it!🐷

The damn door pillar was so close to the seat I could hardly get my fat ass out of the car. The dislike was instant. I did not have it long enough to learn to like it. My 2 cts 

[helix]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/armstrong-elon-musk-tesla-electric-vehicles-1.7162672

What Tesla's troubles tell us about the EV industry.

[BrightonCorgi]

Panamera Sport Turismo is the one to buy if you want an "investment worthy" purchase.

[joeypots]

If you live in an area which will give you good solar collection, panel up the house and don’t pay for the electricity to run the EV. Solar isn’t good everywhere though I have a close friend in a prime spot with lots of roof facing south. He charges the Tesla and most days he puts electricity into the grid. I know, the up front cost of the panels and the EV are high, but a lot of people looking to minimize their carbon footprint are doing this. Sooner or later this is going to become more common as the technology improves, the buy in cost goes down, and the price of gasoline and diesel rises with worldwide demand.

[El Hoze]

I recently leased a Rivian SUV (the quad motor R1S). It is my first EV. I am not an EV guy I actually think EVs are a bit of a pain in the ass, I just liked the car.  I will just use it around town though and for airport runs so the range works totally fine. It is an absolutely fantastic car. I love everything about it so far though I just got it.

I figure the money factor on Rivian leases to be somewhere below 4% depending on your residual value assumptions. And when you include the $7,500 rebate on 36 month leases it is meaningful.  I did everything online in like 15 min, was great. 

[Trapper99]

We just picked up a 2024 Model Y for $40k (with rebate) a few months ago. It was replacing a 22 year old clapped out rust bucket. Other vehicles in consideration were the Rav4 and CRV Hybrids. All 3 vehicles were within $1000 price, and we liked the MY because it had the most storage for growing family. For the mileage we put on it, it's about $100 cheaper a month to drive than the other two, which will definitely add up over time.

I don't really care about the depreciation, cause as you can see from the vehicle the MY is replacing, we will drive it till it's dead. With the battery warranty of 8 years, worst case scenario is the purchase price amortized over 8 years is $5k per year, which is about what a lease would be but mileage restrictions are way lower. My hope is to get 200k miles over a 12-13 year period. 

I think what is really exasperating depreciation of EVs right now is during covid, this same MY had a purchase price of $60k or more. The MY is not a $60k car....$40k is fair when compared to it's competitors. I think the EVs purchased now (Tesla in particular) will be much more in line with normal depreciation rates, because the new purchase price doesn't have much more space to move down, especially in an inflationary economy.

Obviously, "luxury" EVs will be different.

[targa88]

Some valid points

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/05/poor-resale-values-of-evs-are-a-problem-for-the-industry-warn-experts.html

[Jackdani7401]

Something else to consider is the service on an EV. Most areas in the US have a limited number of certified tech to work on the EVs. Naturally, EV only dealers will be different. My brother works for Ford and last he heard there was only a handful of certified EV techs in the entire state of Michigan. While you might be able to purchase a Porsche EV from a local dealer, you may not be able to have it serviced there. 
 

I won’t be getting an EV anytime soon, hell I still drive a manual transmission😂😂

[LordAnubis]

11 hours ago, joeypots said:

If you live in an area which will give you good solar collection, panel up the house and don’t pay for the electricity to run the EV. Solar isn’t good everywhere though I have a close friend in a prime spot with lots of roof facing south. He charges the Tesla and most days he puts electricity into the grid. I know, the up front cost of the panels and the EV are high, but a lot of people looking to minimize their carbon footprint are doing this. Sooner or later this is going to become more common as the technology improves, the buy in cost goes down, and the price of gasoline and diesel rises with worldwide demand.

So your mate has no job to be charging his car daily during the day? I’m a huuuuge believer in solar but it’s no point for charging your car in my view unless you work from home in which case, you’re not using your car.  

[BrightonCorgi]

18 hours ago, Jackdani7401 said:

Something else to consider is the service on an EV.

A buddy of mine is the North East service manager for Lucid. Basically any car north of Washington D.C. gets shipped to Natick, MA for service and then returned to the customer.  The facility is over 40K sq ft. Lucid drops off a loaner Lucid while the customer car is hauled off. Lucid is beautiful car inside and out, but does that scale?

[joeypots]

8 hours ago, LordAnubis said:

So your mate has no job to be charging his car daily during the day? I’m a huuuuge believer in solar but it’s no point for charging your car in my view unless you work from home in which case, you’re not using your car.  

The transfer of power into the car is not direct. The solar panels are connected to the electric grid. The car charges when electric rates are low at night. Solar panels add electricity into the grid during daylight. And, the tax credits for the car and the solar system were compelling.  Believe me, I’m not saying this is for everyone. I live in SE Massachusetts and EVs are not a practical transportation option. There are lots of them around but I think most EV owners here are true believers. I don’t turn up my nose at them, they are helping to fund corporate research that will help improve the technology. Like I wrote, sooner or later.... 

[LordAnubis]

9 hours ago, joeypots said:

The transfer of power into the car is not direct. The solar panels are connected to the electric grid. The car charges when electric rates are low at night. Solar panels add electricity into the grid during daylight. And, the tax credits for the car and the solar system were compelling.  Believe me, I’m not saying this is for everyone. I live in SE Massachusetts and EVs are not a practical transportation option. There are lots of them around but I think most EV owners here are true believers. I don’t turn up my nose at them, they are helping to fund corporate research that will help improve the technology. Like I wrote, sooner or later.... 

Ahh interesting. Here it’s not like that. Buy back from grid is like 4c here and cost from grid is 22c. So that system doesn’t work. It’s great that you guys can beat the system!

[BrightonCorgi]

9 hours ago, LordAnubis said:

Ahh interesting. Here it’s not like that. Buy back from grid is like 4c here and cost from grid is 22c. So that system doesn’t work. It’s great that you guys can beat the system!

What's odd in the States is if you go to Arizona where it's hot and sunny all year, no one has solar panels. In MA (north east) solar panels are quite common, but not as needed or helpful as they would be in AZ. It's like there is a cabal for or against solar panels depending on your locale in the States.

[joeypots]

9 hours ago, LordAnubis said:

Ahh interesting. Here it’s not like that. Buy back from grid is like 4c here and cost from grid is 22c. So that system doesn’t work. It’s great that you guys can beat the system!

The Electric companies, in Massachusetts anyways, do not want to build more plants. We have some of the most expensive electricity in the country. There are all sorts of programs to help mitigate the use of electricity. They will come and do a survey every few years to tell you what to do to lower usage. There is a crawl space under part of my house. Some electric saving program paid to insulate the whole thing. Nasty job. It took a small crew a few days to do it and we never saw a bill.

[El Presidente]

8 hours ago, BrightonCorgi said:

What's odd in the States is if you go to Arizona where it's hot and sunny all year, no one has solar panels.  In MA (north east) solar panels are quite common, but not as needed or helpful as they would be in AZ.  It's like there is a cabal for or against solar panels depending on your locale in the States.

Australia has the highest per capita deployment of rooftop solar in the world. Rooftop solar is installed on around 30 per cent of homes.