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Marevas (2/5)

  1. MGL OCT 20 Short de Punch The cigar was excellent. My wife’s photography not so much! Breakfast at Tiffany’s was the movie, her favorite.
  2. Gotcha. With what they are going for on BR + buyers fee suggest $1800. I imagine BR is going to see a spike in sales as people cash in, and pricing may actually be better than retail so more buyers using that verse other sources. Either way BR is positioned good it seems! Espy made my mouth drop at $2400
  3. 1100 for Col and 770 for Reyes😲 I don't even want to smoke the ones I have anymore
  4. I saw that too. That price is similar to the last couple times been up on 24:24
  5. Had a reason to celebrate, so it called for an Espy!
  6. I think everything is going to go great, till it doesn’t😂 A lot of evidence seems to point to tough times ahead, but also a lot of evidence supports this is a clown world and logic (financial) is out the window. Those in power will be fine, no matter what.
  7. I’m headed down to Tijuana next weekend with my Ukrainian wife to try and get her mother across. PedWest crossing is back open, exclusively for Ukrainians (not even processing US citizens) apparently processing 800 per day. Sucks this is the system for the widely advertised 100k refugees US will accept, but it is what it is so just have to go with it. A vast majority of these Ukrainians will go back once the war is (hopefully) over. I think the gov doesn’t understand they just want temp entry to be with family during the war, not green cards and gov benny’s. That’s why this system sucks. Not surprising the influx Tijuana is going to see over the next month, between Ukrainians getting in now and Hispanics getting ready for the policy change coming up in May.
  8. If you can’t pay Russia for gas, you get no gas. Germany, France, and Italy need Russian gas. The only way to peace is more suffering. Unfortunately it’s all falling on the Ukrainian people. Look up the heroes of snake island. Told a Russian warship to GFY when faced with certain death. Radio audio on YouTube
  9. Speaking with the in-laws now, they are scared but staying put. Live about 150 miles from Donbas, 500 drive mile to Lviv. Full scale invasion means no where is likely safe, so best to stay at home I guess. West needs to nut up and cut Russia for swift. They have to throw Putin a curveball. They won’t because then they can’t pay Russia for gas (so gas gets shut off) and Russia threatened to cut internet cables. But appeasement isn’t going to work either.
  10. Just the immediate threat of invasion is putting a strangle hold on the Ukrainian economy. My in laws still live in Ukraine, and last year was great for business, but now it’s bad. Also, Ukraine won’t call up the reserve forces for military preparation cause that effectively shuts the whole economy down.
  11. I think they want Europe's help, not to piss them off by shutting off their gas.
  12. This tweet says it all about Russia thinks about the sanctions That was from Dmitry Medvedev, former PM and current Deputy Security Counsel of Russia. If full scale war breaks out in Ukraine, I'm sure the pipes thru Ukraine are going to get destroyed, so that will even further limit the supply the Europe. At the same time, the policy of appeasement towards Putin has only embolden him (who could have imagined that). Putin knows the west will always choose politics over principles, and once he had Europe by the balls energy wise, the events of today are too late to stop. My solution (probably wrong😏) - France has moved to add more nuclear plants, and Germany needs to do the same. At the same time, oil producing nations need to increase production instead of cutting production. Higher energy prices benefit Putin as it's 60% of their GDP. That's the long term solution is Europe needs to ween dependence of Russian oil. As for the Ukrainians now...give em hell...and make the invaders bleed for every cm of Ukrainian soil. They are outgunned, outmanned, and outmaneuvered. Russia may roll through fast, but the resulting insurgency will unfortunately cause 10s of thousands of deaths. But I know the Ukrainian people, and I don't believe they will stand for an occupation. Putin has to know this, so I think he is going to keep up the political and economic pressure with the threat of full scale invasion. I think he will give notice to Ukraine to withdraw their army from the Donbas region, which Putin says is independent but Ukraine still occupies roughly 70%, under the threat of full invasion. If Ukraine doesn't cede this area, Putin could use that as his justification to roll. But idk, I don't think like a tyrant madman that Putin is, and watching his speech yesterday he obviously thinks Ukraine should not exist.
  13. First paragraph: If I’m not mistaken, any country with an active conflict can’t be admitted to NATO. Also, it requires unanimous approval of all NATO countries, and I’m sure Russia has enough leverage over Europe (looking at you Germany) to keep that from ever happening. I think the ship has sailed for Ukraine to NATO from ever happening. The west doesn’t have the stones for it. Second paragraph: From my time in Ukraine, I think the area that would be most receptive to a Russian occupancy already are. Any new areas taken are going to be at a great lost to the Russians once they have to leave their tanks and “occupy”. I don’t see the Ukrainian people just folding to an occupation of new areas. IF Putin does something, IMO he will move in, destroy the military, and GTFO and then work on getting a Russian aligned president, IMO. Third paragraph: It could be? I don’t know if it’s confirmed Russian subs cut the cable to Svalbard, but all the news articles I’ve read about it rumor it to be, because it wasn’t accidental. And the Russians have a NOTAM for an area they are doing exercises in the Atlantic, and it’s right over cables. It’s likely them posturing saying “you cut us from swift, and we can cut your cables”. I don’t think NATO has the stones to do anything about it anyways. Putin knows what he can get away with with the weak leadership of the west. I don’t claim to be some expert on Ukraine, I just follow it closely cause my wife’s parents and babuskas live about 150 miles from the front lines. They are packed and ready to head to Lviv if a invasion occurs.
  14. Trinidad Reyes on the last evening in Ukraine visiting the in-laws.
  15. Pretty sure Ukraine to NATO is already out the door with the current conflict going on. Plus, Germany is taking it so deep from Russia they would never approve it. But yes, your whole post is spot on. Putin wants a Yanocovich (sp) type president back in Kyiv. Problem is the Ukrainians won’t vote for someone like that anymore. And the whole “Ukraine is corrupt to screw them” is a load of bull. They are no more corrupt than any of the other players in this timeline. It doesn’t mean their sovereignty means nothing anymore.

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