CDC: Majority of Americans Support Total Ban of Tobacco Products

[Cairo]

I just saw this Halfwheel article--got my attention this morning:

https://halfwheel.com/cdc-majority-of-americans-support-banning-all-tobacco-products/419359/

[Chibearsv]

The majority of Americans need a history lesson.  Ban them all you want, I'll still be buying cigars and smoking on my patio.

[Nevrknow]

But, but, but banning something has ALWAYS worked before................. right............?  😂

[NweakO]

We do live in the age of super-boredom

[Cairo]

I have had a few minutes to reflect and think about the implications for us here.

It may mean that the day of legalized ccs in the US may not happen.

It may also mean a future where customs treats cigars as a higher priority.

I have always been paranoid on this topic--no confidence in the reasonableness of my fellow homo sapiens--so I have already stocked up with a lifetime supply of ccs and ncs.

I better live long enough to smoke all of them--don't want my heirs putting my stash on one of those reality tv shows--"Crazy Uncle Hoarder".

 

[Bigkahuna]

The key is to determine your lifespan based on the local actuarial tables. estimate the median cigars per week smoked and add 3-5%. You now have your accurate lifetime supply magic number. I’ve padded with a couple dozen pounds of pipe tobacco just in case. In 30 years tobacco will very likely be treated as a schedule 1 substance. Meaning it has zero medicinal value and treated the same as opioids and such.  

[MrBirdman]

I’m not losing any sleep over this. I might if we lived in a functional democracy in this country. But we don’t.

[Greenhorn2]

I remember as a young child working in the tobacco fields on my dad's farm. He told me if I lived to be an old man I would see these fields  full of marijuana and people would be sneaking around in the woods growing tobacco. I think he may be right.

[Cairo]

1 hour ago, Bigkahuna said:

The key is to determine your lifespan based on the local actuarial tables. estimate the median cigars per week smoked and add 3-5%.

Yeah--I did that.  What happened next was in the 2019-2020 time frame there were so many great deals (here and elsewhere) that I couldn't stop buying and now I am going to have to blow well past the actuarial tables to smoke all of them.     The price increases were my "clue" to stop buying.

[BrightonCorgi]

A total tobacco ban in the US is inevitable.  Smoking is considered an awful habit by most that should be eradicated.  The smoke smell is awful and there's no one rooting for tobacco in Washington.  It'll be a death by a thousand cuts until tobacco use and cultivation is outlawed altogether.

[jakebarnes]

I think the main part is buried by the lede: the cdc knows its methodology is terrible for this. It is basically clickbait

[Cairo]

40 minutes ago, BrightonCorgi said:

It'll be a death by a thousand cuts until tobacco use and cultivation is outlawed altogether.

The year is 2045 and I am really old.....and forgot that I keep a stash of cigars in my vehicle.

A cop pulls me over for a busted headlight.

"I see a cigar in plain sight.  That gives me authority to search your vehicle...."

Later:

"You are in possession of more than ten cigars--by law that means you are a cigar dealer--off to jail for you--and we are gonna seize the car..."

 

[cigaraholic]

If they ban smoking cigars I won’t have an occupation.

[bms82]

Government makes too much money on tobacco to ever ban, same with alcohol.

[Thirdcoastwatch]

Agreed.  It’s a classic inelastic good which is why they are taxed so heavily.   

[MrBirdman]

1 hour ago, bms82 said:

Government makes too much money on tobacco to ever ban, same with alcohol.

Exactly - governments have been legalizing so many new vices to be taxed that they’re in danger of running out!

[NSXCIGAR]

3 hours ago, BrightonCorgi said:

A total tobacco ban in the US is inevitable.

I would usually agree but tobacco is an odd bird in the US. Tax revenues are enormous, the tobacco lobby still has some power and a federal ban would probably be legally difficult. States banning it would see crime skyrocket and black market tobacco would cause all sorts of problems. I see it just being taxed into the stratosphere until revenues go down and then it will stabilize. 

[Bigkahuna]

1 minute ago, NSXCIGAR said:

I would usually agree but tobacco is an odd bird in the US. Tax revenues are enormous, the tobacco lobby still has some power and a federal ban would probably be legally difficult. States banning it would see crime skyrocket and black market tobacco would cause all sorts of problems. I see it just being taxed into the stratosphere until revenues go down and then it will stabilize. 

Give it time. Maybe not for 20-30 years but it’s inevitable. There is no 2nd amendment style following and revenue will be replaced by THC products. 
 

 

[Monterey]

3 hours ago, bms82 said:

Government makes too much money on tobacco to ever ban, same with alcohol.

Does it exceed the health costs it creates?  The majority of people will be on Medicare when health issues kick in from smoking.  Is the insurance greater than the money it brings in?  Probably.  Given Medicare is going broke . . .

[MrBirdman]

Legally it’s not really an issue - Congress could just schedule nicotine under the CSA. It’s a terrible idea of course. I think a nationwide ban on vaping is more likely than one on actual tobacco. Though I really don’t think either is especially plausible anytime in the next 20 years. Too much money at stake. Even if it became popular, that’s largely irrelevant to what policies are enacted in this country anyway. 

[Cairo]

44 minutes ago, Monterey said:

Does it exceed the health costs it creates? 

Any political decision will not be based on number crunching of cost vs benefits.

Numbers may be used to justify action after the decision has been made, but (like most things human) this will be an emotional decision.

If enough folks are convinced "tobacco is icky" it is done just because politicians cannot resist virtue signaling.

[Boxer31]

Weird times. Dispensaries opening up all over and legal but they want to kill tobacco. One of my Dr says cigars good but cigarettes bad (stay away)for my blood pressure. A little hypocritical I know but def agree!  

[BrightonCorgi]

The strategy is not US-centric at all.  It starts with taxing it exceedingly and then ban retail sales.  The ban importation and make it so regulated to farm.  It's like a I mentioned earlier "death by a 1000 cuts". 

There will always be something to tax and tax more.  They don't need tobacco tax.  They just dislike tobacco and tobacco smoke. 

Government has only scratched the surface on what and how they can tax.  Elimination of cash is coming and taxation will be so much easier for government to take as they wish.

[Ken Gargett]

40 minutes ago, BrightonCorgi said:

The strategy is not US-centric at all.  It starts with taxing it exceedingly and then ban retail sales.  The ban importation and make it so regulated to farm.  It's like a I mentioned earlier "death by a 1000 cuts". 

There will always be something to tax and tax more.  They don't need tobacco tax.  They just dislike tobacco and tobacco smoke. 

Government has only scratched the surface on what and how they can tax.  Elimination of cash is coming and taxation will be so much easier for government to take as they wish.

i'm largely in agreement here. death by a 1,000 cuts.

all very well saying i will still smoke and buy cigars but it may not be that easy. if it were to happen, then that is the end of any tobacco fields in the states. it is also the end of any legit tobacconists. so anyone buying is doing so illegally. that will bring all manner of crooks into the game. sure, we have FoH, but many won't and many will lose interest. and if the States goes, how long before we follow? and where does that leave FoH and all its clients? 

other countries/offshore businesses will be affected to the extent they supply cigars and or tobacco to the US. if you lose a major market, how many businesses will survive. some for sure but many won't. 

cigars will no longer be able to be imported legally into the US. so all those NCs suddenly become contraband. if they increase customs resources for looking into this, that will hurt businesses like FoH as well as others. and if they start fining people, that becomes a big disincentive. to everyone. 

as for the taxes argument, it will vary from country to country but given the health costs caused by smoking (yes, cigarettes in the vast majority of cases but govets don't care), that will balance out and may even be revenue positive. and if they are fining people, even more so. 

[yossie]

I'm very interested in how this works.  I've seen previous wars against alcohol, drug,gun and even face-mask. US citizens, better or worse , maniacally like to save their(sometime even harmful) own rights .