Biden Administration considering ban on Nicaraguan Imports

[SMELTZ]

https://halfwheel.com/u-s-reportedly-considering-ban-on-nicaraguan-imports/413572/

Wow!

[SCgarman]

54 minutes ago, SMELTZ said:

https://halfwheel.com/u-s-reportedly-considering-ban-on-nicaraguan-imports/413572/

Wow!

If it were to become reality, that would drive a stake in the cigar industry. And would virtually end cigar consumption in the USA. 

[Cairo]

I talked about this possibility in several forums in the past year or so--and everyone assured me this was totally impossible.

Stock up on your favorite Nics now, people.

Now.   No excuses.

[Silverstix]

Strained relations??? I don’t have any strained relations with Nicaragua. I say keep the imports and if Joe or anyone else has “strained relations” they can just not buy the products. Crazy idea, I know. Almost like a free market or something.


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[El Presidente]

In via another country.

Prices up 30%

But doable

[BoliDan]

I don't think it'll happen..regardless, I wonder how fast sticks are flying off shelves right now.

Since it would be a trade ban on the country and not a full on product embargo, Wouldn't a way around this be house rollers in a different country and buy the tobacco from Nicaragua but import it from Honduras or whatever?

 

[Silverstix]

I don't think it'll happen..regardless, I wonder how fast sticks are flying off shelves right now.
 

Definitely don’t think it would ever happen either. I’d imagine it would probably end up driving up costs of all of those other imported goods for consumers in the US too (meat, cheese, sugar, gold, machinery). Less of a supply to pick from, rest of the world would know it.


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[El Presidente]

What is the scale of non tobacco Nic imports to the US?  

The lower the scale the more the likelihood. 

Cigars become unintended consequences 

[Corylax18]

1 minute ago, El Presidente said:

What is the scale of non tobacco Nic imports to the US?  

The lower the scale the more the likelihood. 

Cigars become unintended consequences 

Other than People? Very little. 

[BrightonCorgi]

Kind of odd since 1,000's on Nicaraguans walk across the border every month.  How about ban the illegal aliens and allow the cigars?

[Corylax18]

1 hour ago, BrightonCorgi said:

Kind of odd since 1,000's on Nicaraguans walk across the border every month.  How about ban the illegal aliens and allow the cigars?

The "illegal" aliens are already banned, hence the illegality of their entry. If we look at that example and roughly a million more (CCs anyone?) "Banning" something is the least effective way to get rid of something. 

I'm also failing to connect the dots on how this eliminates all purchase and consumption of cigars in the US. But there's nothing like a knee jerk, "sky is falling" over reaction to help spur intelligent conversation. 🙄

[SCgarman]

5 minutes ago, Corylax18 said:

The "illegal" aliens are already banned, hence the illegality of their entry. If we look at that example and roughly a million more (CCs anyone?) "Banning" something is the least effective way to get rid of something. 

I'm also failing to connect the dots on how this eliminates all purchase and consumption of cigars in the US. But there's nothing like a knee jerk, "sky is falling" over reaction to help spur intelligent conversation. 🙄

You know darn well Jorge Padron would be making contingency plans. Padron is perhaps the biggest player with Nic grown and rolled tobacco. 

[Bri Fi]

Bought a box of 1964 anniversary maduro principes today just in case. Plus need to start stalking up for some winter smokes 

[dominattorney]

3 hours ago, Corylax18 said:

The "illegal" aliens are already banned, hence the illegality of their entry. If we look at that example and roughly a million more (CCs anyone?) "Banning" something is the least effective way to get rid of something. 

I'm also failing to connect the dots on how this eliminates all purchase and consumption of cigars in the US. But there's nothing like a knee jerk, "sky is falling" over reaction to help spur intelligent conversation. 🙄

Why do reasonable people like you even bother?

[LordAnubis]

I’m telling ya. It’s all the Nicaraguans. 😁

[KCCubano]

23 hours ago, Bri Fi said:

Bought a box of 1964 anniversary maduro principes today just in case. Plus need to start stalking up for some winter smokes 

One of my favorite NC's along with 1964 Coronas

[SCgarman]

12 hours ago, Bri Fi said:

Bought a box of 1964 anniversary maduro principes today just in case. Plus need to start stalking up for some winter smokes 

Not a maduro fan, but love any vitola in the 1964 anny series. The "superior" is a great long and skinny. But man, prices on all these have shot way up also. $250/box is likely in the past forever.

[MrBirdman]

18 hours ago, El Presidente said:

What is the scale of non tobacco Nic imports to the US?  

The lower the scale the more the likelihood. 

Cigars become unintended consequences 

So US total imports are around $4 billion, with cigars representing a little under $300 million of that. Their major exports are probably typical for Latin America: coffee, sugar, mining etc. US companies have other options for importation in all those areas, whereas for the domestic cigar industry Nicaragua is #1, irreplaceable in the near-term, and the situs of substantial capital investment by US companies (including warehoused tobacco). Given that, and the not insignificant cigar lobby, I would not be surprised to see cigars actually exempted from a ban, if one does come to pass.  The goal in these situations is to put pressure on the foreign government without creating domestic mayhem. 

I think the odds of a ban, at least a sweeping one, are under 50% because whatever it’s actual effect, the move would be seen as pro-inflationary just as inflation is starting to cool. If we do see a ban I wouldn’t expect it to start until at least mid-2023. 

[mprach024]

You all do know Cuban cigars are illegal right……and what do we all buy and smoke mostly?  Have a drink, we’ll be fine.

[MrBirdman]

18 hours ago, El Presidente said:

In via another country.

Prices up 30%

But doable

4 minutes ago, mprach024 said:

You all do know Cuban cigars are illegal right……and what do we all buy and smoke mostly?  Have a drink, we’ll be fine.

Eventually people would start getting them again, but a ban would completely upend the business model for retail and manufacturers. 99% of US non-Cubans are distributed and sold domestically. They’d need to find offshore retailers and distribution to handle all their Nicaraguan volume, and I’m skeptical that kind of capacity already exists even with the Cuban shortage. Both B&M’s and the big online retailers would lose a ton of business and some would no doubt go under along with some producers. 

So, again, I would be surprised to see such a ban on tobacco because of the economic damage it would cause, especially in Florida. 

[Monterey]

1 hour ago, SCgarman said:

Not a maduro fan, but love any vitola in the 1964 anny series. The "superior" is a great long and skinny. But man, prices on all these have shot way up also. $250/box is likely in the past forever.

265 for the superior right now.  Not much of a price increase. 6%

[DaBoot]

Agree that cigars would be exempt if a ban does occur.  
 But leave it up to the administration to start talks off with severe threats….. if this tactic doesn’t work against children, why would it work against a dictator???

 

[Greenhorn2]

23 hours ago, SCgarman said:

If it were to become reality, that would drive a stake in the cigar industry. And would virtually end cigar consumption in the USA. 

Nah, I'll just order sticks from Rob.

[Bri Fi]

4 hours ago, SCgarman said:

Not a maduro fan, but love any vitola in the 1964 anny series. The "superior" is a great long and skinny. But man, prices on all these have shot way up also. $250/box is likely in the past forever.

I paid about $275 after shipping and taxes. Not bad. 

[El Presidente]

5 hours ago, MrBirdman said:

Eventually people would start getting them again, but a ban would completely upend the business model for retail and manufacturers. 99% of US non-Cubans are distributed and sold domestically. They’d need to find offshore retailers and distribution to handle all their Nicaraguan volume, and I’m skeptical that kind of capacity already exists even with the Cuban shortage. Both B&M’s and the big online retailers would lose a ton of business and some would no doubt go under along with some producers. 

So, again, I would be surprised to see such a ban on tobacco because of the economic damage it would cause, especially in Florida. 

There would be a boom in Dom/Honduran cigar brands/lines

Nics would go bandless into other countries and into "new blend Honduran/Dom lines. 

Nics could go bandless by container into 3rd country before landing in US....and then boxed/banded in Florida as anything you wanted. 

PITA certainly.  Increase in costs but workable for the right pirates. 

This industry is not short of pirates