SMELTZ Posted September 3, 2022 Posted September 3, 2022 https://halfwheel.com/u-s-reportedly-considering-ban-on-nicaraguan-imports/413572/ Wow! 2
SCgarman Posted September 3, 2022 Posted September 3, 2022 54 minutes ago, SMELTZ said: https://halfwheel.com/u-s-reportedly-considering-ban-on-nicaraguan-imports/413572/ Wow! If it were to become reality, that would drive a stake in the cigar industry. And would virtually end cigar consumption in the USA. 2
Cairo Posted September 3, 2022 Posted September 3, 2022 I talked about this possibility in several forums in the past year or so--and everyone assured me this was totally impossible. Stock up on your favorite Nics now, people. Now. No excuses. 1
Silverstix Posted September 3, 2022 Posted September 3, 2022 Strained relations??? I don’t have any strained relations with Nicaragua. I say keep the imports and if Joe or anyone else has “strained relations” they can just not buy the products. Crazy idea, I know. Almost like a free market or something. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk 4
El Presidente Posted September 3, 2022 Posted September 3, 2022 In via another country. Prices up 30% But doable 2
BoliDan Posted September 3, 2022 Posted September 3, 2022 I don't think it'll happen..regardless, I wonder how fast sticks are flying off shelves right now. Since it would be a trade ban on the country and not a full on product embargo, Wouldn't a way around this be house rollers in a different country and buy the tobacco from Nicaragua but import it from Honduras or whatever? 2
Silverstix Posted September 3, 2022 Posted September 3, 2022 I don't think it'll happen..regardless, I wonder how fast sticks are flying off shelves right now. Definitely don’t think it would ever happen either. I’d imagine it would probably end up driving up costs of all of those other imported goods for consumers in the US too (meat, cheese, sugar, gold, machinery). Less of a supply to pick from, rest of the world would know it. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk 2
El Presidente Posted September 3, 2022 Posted September 3, 2022 What is the scale of non tobacco Nic imports to the US? The lower the scale the more the likelihood. Cigars become unintended consequences 2
Popular Post Corylax18 Posted September 3, 2022 Popular Post Posted September 3, 2022 1 minute ago, El Presidente said: What is the scale of non tobacco Nic imports to the US? The lower the scale the more the likelihood. Cigars become unintended consequences Other than People? Very little. 4 1
Popular Post BrightonCorgi Posted September 3, 2022 Popular Post Posted September 3, 2022 Kind of odd since 1,000's on Nicaraguans walk across the border every month. How about ban the illegal aliens and allow the cigars? 6 1
Popular Post Corylax18 Posted September 3, 2022 Popular Post Posted September 3, 2022 1 hour ago, BrightonCorgi said: Kind of odd since 1,000's on Nicaraguans walk across the border every month. How about ban the illegal aliens and allow the cigars? The "illegal" aliens are already banned, hence the illegality of their entry. If we look at that example and roughly a million more (CCs anyone?) "Banning" something is the least effective way to get rid of something. I'm also failing to connect the dots on how this eliminates all purchase and consumption of cigars in the US. But there's nothing like a knee jerk, "sky is falling" over reaction to help spur intelligent conversation. 🙄 8
SCgarman Posted September 3, 2022 Posted September 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, Corylax18 said: The "illegal" aliens are already banned, hence the illegality of their entry. If we look at that example and roughly a million more (CCs anyone?) "Banning" something is the least effective way to get rid of something. I'm also failing to connect the dots on how this eliminates all purchase and consumption of cigars in the US. But there's nothing like a knee jerk, "sky is falling" over reaction to help spur intelligent conversation. 🙄 You know darn well Jorge Padron would be making contingency plans. Padron is perhaps the biggest player with Nic grown and rolled tobacco.
Bri Fi Posted September 4, 2022 Posted September 4, 2022 Bought a box of 1964 anniversary maduro principes today just in case. Plus need to start stalking up for some winter smokes
dominattorney Posted September 4, 2022 Posted September 4, 2022 3 hours ago, Corylax18 said: The "illegal" aliens are already banned, hence the illegality of their entry. If we look at that example and roughly a million more (CCs anyone?) "Banning" something is the least effective way to get rid of something. I'm also failing to connect the dots on how this eliminates all purchase and consumption of cigars in the US. But there's nothing like a knee jerk, "sky is falling" over reaction to help spur intelligent conversation. 🙄 Why do reasonable people like you even bother? 2
LordAnubis Posted September 4, 2022 Posted September 4, 2022 I’m telling ya. It’s all the Nicaraguans. 😁 1
KCCubano Posted September 4, 2022 Posted September 4, 2022 23 hours ago, Bri Fi said: Bought a box of 1964 anniversary maduro principes today just in case. Plus need to start stalking up for some winter smokes One of my favorite NC's along with 1964 Coronas
SCgarman Posted September 4, 2022 Posted September 4, 2022 12 hours ago, Bri Fi said: Bought a box of 1964 anniversary maduro principes today just in case. Plus need to start stalking up for some winter smokes Not a maduro fan, but love any vitola in the 1964 anny series. The "superior" is a great long and skinny. But man, prices on all these have shot way up also. $250/box is likely in the past forever.
MrBirdman Posted September 4, 2022 Posted September 4, 2022 18 hours ago, El Presidente said: What is the scale of non tobacco Nic imports to the US? The lower the scale the more the likelihood. Cigars become unintended consequences So US total imports are around $4 billion, with cigars representing a little under $300 million of that. Their major exports are probably typical for Latin America: coffee, sugar, mining etc. US companies have other options for importation in all those areas, whereas for the domestic cigar industry Nicaragua is #1, irreplaceable in the near-term, and the situs of substantial capital investment by US companies (including warehoused tobacco). Given that, and the not insignificant cigar lobby, I would not be surprised to see cigars actually exempted from a ban, if one does come to pass. The goal in these situations is to put pressure on the foreign government without creating domestic mayhem. I think the odds of a ban, at least a sweeping one, are under 50% because whatever it’s actual effect, the move would be seen as pro-inflationary just as inflation is starting to cool. If we do see a ban I wouldn’t expect it to start until at least mid-2023. 4
mprach024 Posted September 4, 2022 Posted September 4, 2022 You all do know Cuban cigars are illegal right……and what do we all buy and smoke mostly? Have a drink, we’ll be fine. 2
MrBirdman Posted September 4, 2022 Posted September 4, 2022 18 hours ago, El Presidente said: In via another country. Prices up 30% But doable 4 minutes ago, mprach024 said: You all do know Cuban cigars are illegal right……and what do we all buy and smoke mostly? Have a drink, we’ll be fine. Eventually people would start getting them again, but a ban would completely upend the business model for retail and manufacturers. 99% of US non-Cubans are distributed and sold domestically. They’d need to find offshore retailers and distribution to handle all their Nicaraguan volume, and I’m skeptical that kind of capacity already exists even with the Cuban shortage. Both B&M’s and the big online retailers would lose a ton of business and some would no doubt go under along with some producers. So, again, I would be surprised to see such a ban on tobacco because of the economic damage it would cause, especially in Florida. 2
Monterey Posted September 4, 2022 Posted September 4, 2022 1 hour ago, SCgarman said: Not a maduro fan, but love any vitola in the 1964 anny series. The "superior" is a great long and skinny. But man, prices on all these have shot way up also. $250/box is likely in the past forever. 265 for the superior right now. Not much of a price increase. 6%
DaBoot Posted September 4, 2022 Posted September 4, 2022 Agree that cigars would be exempt if a ban does occur. But leave it up to the administration to start talks off with severe threats….. if this tactic doesn’t work against children, why would it work against a dictator???
Greenhorn2 Posted September 4, 2022 Posted September 4, 2022 23 hours ago, SCgarman said: If it were to become reality, that would drive a stake in the cigar industry. And would virtually end cigar consumption in the USA. Nah, I'll just order sticks from Rob.
Bri Fi Posted September 4, 2022 Posted September 4, 2022 4 hours ago, SCgarman said: Not a maduro fan, but love any vitola in the 1964 anny series. The "superior" is a great long and skinny. But man, prices on all these have shot way up also. $250/box is likely in the past forever. I paid about $275 after shipping and taxes. Not bad.
El Presidente Posted September 4, 2022 Posted September 4, 2022 5 hours ago, MrBirdman said: Eventually people would start getting them again, but a ban would completely upend the business model for retail and manufacturers. 99% of US non-Cubans are distributed and sold domestically. They’d need to find offshore retailers and distribution to handle all their Nicaraguan volume, and I’m skeptical that kind of capacity already exists even with the Cuban shortage. Both B&M’s and the big online retailers would lose a ton of business and some would no doubt go under along with some producers. So, again, I would be surprised to see such a ban on tobacco because of the economic damage it would cause, especially in Florida. There would be a boom in Dom/Honduran cigar brands/lines Nics would go bandless into other countries and into "new blend Honduran/Dom lines. Nics could go bandless by container into 3rd country before landing in US....and then boxed/banded in Florida as anything you wanted. PITA certainly. Increase in costs but workable for the right pirates. This industry is not short of pirates 3
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