Supply Update - July 2022

[El Presidente]

Habanos marketing meeting has been completed. 

Apparently everyone expected from Tabacuba had covid and couldn't attend.  

Let me  keep this simple 

They are holding back all stock until the price rises are introduced globally

Yep, you can put a line through the above. 

Bottom line is that there are not enough rollers and not enough capital. Mother Hubbard's cupboard is empty. 

The message to all?  Things are going to get worse before they get better. 

The "good news" is that there will be more Cohiba and Trinidad for the markets of UK (similar high taxed Euro markets)/Asia/Middle East as other markets adjust their buying. This is of course a prediction (not mine)  that may or may not come to fruition. Let's face it they are hardly planning geniuses. 

There is always the possibility that they escalated the "bad news" in order to take credit for better than expected outcomes. 

So for July 2022 on the supply side,  we will have a continuation of what we have seen for the past 6 months. The entire Habanos world is running on roughly 2-3 week supply windows/reserves  where once upon a time it was 3-6 months. 

Roughly 50% -60% of the HSA catalogue will remain missing at any given time. 

I forgot to mention. There will be a launch party in Havana for the  Cohiba 55^th Anniversary 7/8/9 September  

 

 

 

 

 

 

[JohnS]

Nice to know that there's a launch party for the Cohiba 55th Aniversario in September. It's good to focus on the positives! 😆

[Glass Half Full]

Always appreciate the communication.  Whether good news or bad, the information is always appreciated.

[cgoodrich]

If I read between the lines what you’re really saying is no tanties allowed for at least 6 more months.😂

 

Edit: putting aside my jesting, this does not bode well for the Cuban people. This issue can’t just be on the cigar industry but through others as well. 😞

[Rhinoww]

Your transparency is very much appreciated - the news not so much. I can’t say it’s surprising but it remains depressing. The longer the supply deficit the longer it will take to dig out of this hole. Just depressing. 

[El Presidente]

15 minutes ago, cgoodrich said:

If I read between the lines what you’re really saying is no tanties allowed for at least 6 more months.😂

I actually dream of  the day that I open up the shopping carts and post "be free good people....consume as much as the heart desires" 

[dominattorney]

25 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

I actually dream of  the day that I open up the shopping carts and post "be free good people....consume as much as the heart desires" 

The tanties and bannings (bannies?) will continue until morale improves?

[Rhinoww]

27 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

I actually dream of  the day that I open up the shopping carts and post "be free good people....consume as much as the heart desires" 

I was kinda hoping the carts were gonna open up by the end of the summer given the recent glimmers of hope - at least for a few Vitolas. It seems that we have a longer wait before the carts are back in operation. At this point it seems like Fall may be dreaming. I have yet to hear Habanos SA’s master plan to get more rollers or capital to fund the operations. That’s what is really discouraging. 

[LordAnubis]

Soooooo... get used to smoking mille fluers is what you're saying.

I feel Habanos is missing out on an amazing opportunity here. Pick 5 cigars (D4, M2, ryj Churchill, BPC, El Principe) produce them in abundance in perfect quality. While plenty of stuff isnt availalbe, you can some stuff in exceptional quality and readily available to keep the smokers happy and not drift to NCs. 

[El Presidente]

59 minutes ago, LordAnubis said:

Soooooo... get used to smoking mille fluers is what you're saying.

I feel Habanos is missing out on an amazing opportunity here. Pick 5 cigars (D4, M2, ryj Churchill, BPC, El Principe) produce them in abundance in perfect quality. While plenty of stuff isnt availalbe, you can some stuff in exceptional quality and readily available to keep the smokers happy and not drift to NCs. 

More like.

Throw all of your energy into ROI cigars. Let's hope the plan sticks. Hold onto your jobs as best possible 

Let's be frank. They are a circus right now.  

[Shrimpchips]

1 hour ago, LordAnubis said:

While plenty of stuff isnt availalbe, you can some stuff in exceptional quality and readily available to keep the smokers happy and not drift to NCs. 

I’m pretty sure ensuring high quality and keeping smokers happy don’t even make the top 10 of things HSA actually cares about.  

[SCgarman]

1 hour ago, El Presidente said:

More like.

Throw all of your energy into ROI cigars. Let's hope the plan sticks. Hold onto your jobs as best possible 

Let's be frank. They are a circus right now.  

Do they have any type of game plan to hire/recruit/ train new rollers? Or just roll with whatever they have at the present?

[anacostiakat]

A Launch Party?

 

[grabow32]

Thanks as always for keeping us posted

[Silverstix]

2 hours ago, therealrsr said:

Production pressure, less skilled workers, some significant crop losses.  I'm convinced this will creep into QC issues.  Circus seems appropriate, but shit show may be better.  

QC issues at a 25%-150% increase in price from a year ago.....yikes!! I'd be so pissed if my $75 CoRo is plugged lol

[Hammer Smokin']

especially when you are paying $165 CAD for a single CoRo. 

[cnov]

17 hours ago, El Presidente said:

I actually dream of  the day that I open up the shopping carts and post "be free good people....consume as much as the heart desires" 

Don't do it, I can't afford to shop without the risk of a "sorry...." every now and then.

 

[El Presidente]

19 hours ago, SCgarman said:

Do they have any type of game plan to hire/recruit/ train new rollers? Or just roll with whatever they have at the present?

It is estimated nearly 300,000 Cubans have left the island since September 2021. 

They can train as many people as they want. it doesn't mean they will be there next month. Nor the trainers, nor the QC manager, nor the blenders, nor the factory manager, nor the ........

[SCgarman]

4 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

It is estimated nearly 300,000 Cubans have left the island since September 2021. 

They can train as many people as they want. it doesn't mean they will be their  next month. Nor the trainers, nor the QC manager, nor the blenders, nor the factory manager, nor the ........

Ouch! A bleak situation indeed.

[Hemclas]

2 hours ago, El Presidente said:

It is estimated nearly 300,000 Cubans have left the island since September 2021. 

They can train as many people as they want. it doesn't mean they will be their  next month. Nor the trainers, nor the QC manager, nor the blenders, nor the factory manager, nor the ........

wow!