Ukraine

[RichG]

As I watch this unfold today, I have to wonder what is Putins long game here? Does he want his reunified empire so badly that all consequence is meaningless to him?

He has certainly anticipated that a full scale invasion would yield strong, crippling long term sanctions. It seems he has shrugged them off as unimportant. 

My heart goes out to the people of Ukraine, and I wish I could look at the international response optimistically, but I fear this is going to get much worse before it gets better.
 

[Bijan]

13 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

Canadian Idiots 

Thanks @El Presidente, I definitely spent some time down this rabbit hole with respect to Canada this past little while with the recent protests in our capital and the aftermath.

My apologies, definitely a bad time to go off on this tangent with respect to Ukraine. (the context was meant to show that Putin is a demagogue and not just demented).

[Enduin]

11 minutes ago, RichG said:

As I watch this unfold today, I have to wonder what is Putins long game here? Does he want his reunified empire so badly that all consequence is meaningless to him?

He has certainly anticipated that a full scale invasion would yield strong, crippling long term sanctions. It seems he has shrugged them off as unimportant. 

My heart goes out to the people of Ukraine, and I wish I could look at the international response optimistically, but I fear this is going to get much worse before it gets better.
 

I think we've established with Cuba (or other countries under an authoritarian regime) that when you have a dictator and a population already not doing great, sanctions have the opposite effect to what is desired and they are just used by the dictator to justify anything that makes the population unhappy. Now everything that goes wrong in Russia will be blamed on the sanctions.

[Bijan]

11 minutes ago, Enduin said:

I think we've established with Cuba (or other countries under an authoritarian regime) that when you have a dictator and a population already not doing great, sanctions have the opposite effect to what is desired and they are just used by the dictator to justify anything that makes the population unhappy. Now everything that goes wrong in Russia will be blamed on the sanctions.

Also when you have a government controlled economy, or an oligarchy where the richest people are in cahoots with the government, sanctions hurt ordinary people much more. As the higher up you are the easier time you have in evading sanctions, and ordinary people just become more dependent on those in power for their daily needs.

[HarveyBoulevard]

10 minutes ago, Enduin said:

I think we've established with Cuba (or other countries under an authoritarian regime) that when you have a dictator and a population already not doing great, sanctions have the opposite effect to what is desired and they are just used by the dictator to justify anything that makes the population unhappy. Now everything that goes wrong in Russia will be blamed on the sanctions.

There are four options available:

1.  Do nothing as one sovereign nation invades another;

2.  Diplomacy;

3.  Military response; or

4.  Sanctions.

The only option that is even marginally acceptable is 4.  Options 1 through 3 either don't work or are completely unacceptable to any rational human being.  They may not work as well as we would like them but it appears that is all we are left with to handle the current situation.

The entire globe needs to shut Russia off in every possible way and strangle the economic life out of Putin.

[Cigar Surgeon]

54 minutes ago, BrightonCorgi said:

There are a lot of "white nationalist" movements in Ukraine vs. pure antisemitism.  A bit known as a refugee area for such thinking. 

El Presidente already got there before I did but there are plenty of white nationalist groups in the US and Canada. That doesn't justify smearing either country with a broad paint brush of being Nazi's, nor does it justify an invasion from another country.

[El Presidente]

4 minutes ago, HarveyBoulevard said:

possible way and strangle the economic life out of Putin.

Immediate global travel bans would be a nice next step. 

[Bijan]

16 minutes ago, Cigar Surgeon said:

El Presidente already got there before I did but there are plenty of white nationalist groups in the US and Canada. That doesn't justify smearing either country with a broad paint brush of being Nazi's, nor does it justify an invasion from another country.

Again some of the specifics pass our limits:

"According to The Daily Telegraph, the Azov Battalion's extremist politics and professional English social media pages have attracted foreign fighters,^[32] including people from Brazil, Italy, United Kingdom, France, the United States, Greece, Scandinavia,^[3][32] Spain, Slovakia, Czech Republic and Russia.^[3][63][64] About 50 Russian nationals are members of the Azov regiment.^[65]"

^"Ukraine decided to turn all volunteer battalions—both the Territorial Defence Battalions associated with the armed forces, and the Special Tasks Patrol Police of the interior ministry—into regular units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the National Guard, respectively. Azov is one of the latter. The Ukrainian government also opted to deploy only volunteer units to the Donbas front,^[61] pledging that conscripts would not be sent into combat."

So one of these white nationalists groups is a Neo-Nazi Ukrainian National Guard unit.

[El Presidente]

51 minutes ago, Bijan said:

My apologies, definitely a bad time to go off on this tangent with respect to Ukraine.

....that lasted less than an hour 

[Cigar Surgeon]

12 minutes ago, Bijan said:

Again some of the specifics pass our limits:

"According to The Daily Telegraph, the Azov Battalion's extremist politics and professional English social media pages have attracted foreign fighters,^[32] including people from Brazil, Italy, United Kingdom, France, the United States, Greece, Scandinavia,^[3][32] Spain, Slovakia, Czech Republic and Russia.^[3][63][64] About 50 Russian nationals are members of the Azov regiment.^[65]"

^"Ukraine decided to turn all volunteer battalions—both the Territorial Defence Battalions associated with the armed forces, and the Special Tasks Patrol Police of the interior ministry—into regular units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the National Guard, respectively. Azov is one of the latter. The Ukrainian government also opted to deploy only volunteer units to the Donbas front,^[61] pledging that conscripts would not be sent into combat."

So one of these white nationalists groups is a Neo-Nazi Ukrainian National Guard unit.

I shouldn't have engaged in this discussion topic in the first place, so I'll bow out after this.

Even if the entire armed forces of Ukraine along with it's government were Nazi's, it does not give the right for Russia (or any country) to invade them.

This is what I was referring to a page ago; these are all distractions from the core issue which was Russia using anything as a justification for invasion.

[Corylax18]

Im not optimistic that these sanctions will do anything. We've already seen Russia forgive Cuban Debt. Belarus was the staging ground for the land troops into northern Ukriane. China has already openly stated their support for Russia and started buzzing Taiwan with more fighter jets than they had in the last year.  

Do we really think we're going to "strangle" 2 of the three largest countries on the planet? The rest of the world needs Russia and China's natural resources and manufacturing FAR more then they need any of us. 

Removing Russian access to SWIFT would have a much quicker and larger negative affect on Europe than Russia. 

Ive been on whatsapp with Cuban friends all day. Most people (in Havana at least) know whats really going on. But if you just read Granma, you would think this is all an organic "growth in their friendship"

https://www.granma.cu/cuba/2022-02-23/recibio-diaz-canel-a-viacheslav-volodin-presidente-de-la-duma-estatal-de-la-asamblea-federal-de-la-federacion-de-rusia-23-02-2022-21-02-26

https://www.granma.cu/cuba/2022-02-23/cuba-y-rusia-dos-pueblos-mas-cerca-que-defienden-la-paz-23-02-2022-22-02-06

[Bijan]

11 minutes ago, Cigar Surgeon said:

I shouldn't have engaged in this discussion topic in the first place, so I'll bow out after this.

Same, apologies again.

11 minutes ago, Cigar Surgeon said:

Even if the entire armed forces of Ukraine along with it's government were Nazi's, it does not give the right for Russia (or any country) to invade them.

Disagree on this. If Ukraine were literally Nazi Germany and knowing history that would justify the world taking action. (This is not remotely close to the case here).

12 minutes ago, Cigar Surgeon said:

This is what I was referring to a page ago; these are all distractions from the core issue which was Russia using anything as a justification for invasion.

This is 100% true. Russian or pro-Russian forces likely committed more atrocities than any of these Ukrainian forces. Obviously Russia is not advocating they themselves be invaded and de-nazified.

[Bijan]

Anyways to get back on topic. To me:

Russia is authoritarian.

Ukraine is a fledgling democracy.

Russia is the aggressor.

Ukraine is the victim.

This is enough to support Ukraine and oppose Russia.

I don't think the idea that they're invading a sovereign country preemptively (based on a declaration of self defence), is in itself as inherently wrong if we let go of all concrete realities. (As in it is wrong in this case but it is not ipso facto wrong in all cases)

E.g. if Soviet Russia preemptively attacked Nazi Germany back in the late 1930s would we all be pushing for sanctions against the USSR and support for Germany at having their sovereignty violated? Of course not.

[BrightonCorgi]

2 hours ago, Cigar Surgeon said:

El Presidente already got there before I did but there are plenty of white nationalist groups in the US and Canada. That doesn't justify smearing either country with a broad paint brush of being Nazi's, nor does it justify an invasion from another country.

They are more prolific in the Ukraine than US or Canada.  Half of my family are from the Ukraine.

[Hammer Smokin']

maybe per capita, maybe....

[Fuzz]

2 hours ago, Bijan said:

I don't think the idea that they're invading a sovereign country preemptively (based on a declaration of self defence), is in itself as inherently wrong if we let go of all concrete realities. (As in it is wrong in this case but it is not ipso facto wrong in all cases)

E.g. if Soviet Russia preemptively attacked Nazi Germany back in the late 1930s would we all be pushing for sanctions against the USSR and support for Germany at having their sovereignty violated? Of course not.

Now hang on a second. You are looking at that in hindsight.

That is like saying the US can preemptively attack Nth Korea or China, as they are authoritarian governments and there is a potential they will stir up trouble.

 

 

[Bijan]

2 minutes ago, Fuzz said:

Now hang on a second. You are looking at that in hindsight.

That is like saying the US can preemptively attack Nth Korea or China, as they are authoritarian governments and there is a potential they will stir up trouble.

 

 

Definitely in a preemptive war there is or should be a very high bar to the justification, which is rarely met (but sometimes is). (e.g. There is good reason to expect an imminent attack)

But if we take any given war where we think of one side as being the good guys (like WW2) and conceive of a case where those good guys were the ones who fired the first shot, it doesn't suddenly change our sympathies to the other side.

[Fuzz]

7 hours ago, Bijan said:

Definitely in a preemptive war there is or should be a very high bar to the justification, which is rarely met (but sometimes is). (e.g. There is good reason to expect an imminent attack)

But if we take any given war where we think of one side as being the good guys (like WW2) and conceive of a case where those good guys were the ones who fired the first shot, it doesn't suddenly change our sympathies to the other side.

In your example, lets not forget that after Hitler invaded Poland, Stalin did the exact same thing... then annexed a bunch of other countries as well. Do you honestly believe that if Germany hadn't attacked Russia first, Russia would not have done the same?

There has not been one instance in modern history where a preemptive war for self-defense reasons has passed the test.

[Bijan]

1 minute ago, Fuzz said:

There has not been one instance in modern history where a preemptive war for self-defense reasons has passed the test.

This is fair.

I think Israel's attack against Egypt in 1967 comes closest, but in hindsight even that may have been a stretch. (This is specifically with regards to the part of the conflict against Egypt).

[RichG]

Has anyone seen anyone answer the question straight, as to why no one is willing to take SWIFT action yet?

The answer I saw was that the balance of sanctions are equally if not more catastrophic, which seems like bullshit. 

[Fuzz]

6 minutes ago, RichG said:

Has anyone seen anyone answer the question straight, as to why no one is willing to take SWIFT action yet?

The answer I saw was that the balance of sanctions are equally if not more catastrophic, which seems like bullshit. 

If they cut off Russia, EU creditors won't get their money back.

[Bijan]

11 minutes ago, RichG said:

Has anyone seen anyone answer the question straight, as to why no one is willing to take SWIFT action yet?

The answer I saw was that the balance of sanctions are equally if not more catastrophic, which seems like bullshit. 

Sounds like some countries do more business with Russia and don't want to go that far:

https://www.ekathimerini.com/news/1178323/eu-divided-on-cutting-off-russia-from-swift/

[Bill Hayes]

All I can gauge from it is that the media vultures are swooping in a race to get the most 'on the ground' footage, even though they know that the narrative is being manipulated for them depending on who they are reporting on and who they are reporting for. Makes it really difficult to watch anything about it. The real war will be fought with sound bytes while people die IMHO.

[Trapper99]

4 hours ago, RichG said:

Has anyone seen anyone answer the question straight, as to why no one is willing to take SWIFT action yet?

The answer I saw was that the balance of sanctions are equally if not more catastrophic, which seems like bullshit. 

If you can’t pay Russia for gas, you get no gas. Germany, France, and Italy need Russian gas. 

The only way to peace is more suffering. Unfortunately it’s all falling on the Ukrainian people.

Look up the heroes of snake island. Told a Russian warship to GFY when faced with certain death. Radio audio on YouTube 

[NSXCIGAR]

10 hours ago, Bijan said:

If Ukraine were literally Nazi Germany and knowing history that would justify the world taking action.

While they engaged in it I don't think Nazis are synonymous with genocide. If there was a genocide of Russians then yes, I suppose action should be taken. But a bunch of National Socialists running around doesn't justify an invasion. 

5 hours ago, RichG said:

Has anyone seen anyone answer the question straight, as to why no one is willing to take SWIFT action yet?

From what I understand it's Germany (and possibly other Russian gas consumers) pushing back. 

It appears Putin's gambit paid off. He must have been sure he wouldn't get kicked out of SWIFT. If it doesn't happen by tomorrow it's not going to happen. 

The easiest and most effective thing the US could do is start producing energy to lower prices. That alone would cost Russia more than all of these weak sauce sanctions. 

I haven't even seen confirmation that the US is going to stop buying Russian energy yet...sheesh.