Supply report 13/8/21

[El Presidente]

From Havana

 

“‘Factory production has been cut to around 50%. The factories are open but production units are disrupted through covid infestation and workers needing to stay at home to look after children and sick family members. Exports have been impacted through lack of cargo flight options. Little if anything has left in the last month.

Good news is that this years tobacco crop yielded good quantity and quality. It was a little bit of a surprise. Sorting houses are processing the leaves. Lack of oil is ceasing  transport all over the country. Black market booming and prices skyrocketing”

 

10 Day Supply Outlook

 

Tight. Some premium stock through next week including DC 50 cabs/VI etc. Quantities are super thin across the board barring a few lines.  Incoming stock numbers are down 40% on what they were only six weeks ago.  Global retailers/distributors are all in the same boat and seeking some guidance/clarification from HSA as to the supply situation between now and Christmas.  Looking at the Havana report, there doesn’t appear to be any chance of stock reinforcements anytime soon. HSA appears to have used up whatever reserves they had and we are now relying on current production.

 

 Summary  

 

I suspect it is going to get worse before it gets better. Assuming Cuba can get on top of Covid it could take 18 months to get back to the stock supply levels of 2020 and first quarter of 2021. For us it is a matter of play the ball that is in front of us and use this time to find the gold in the challenge posed.

In order to maintain/ration stock control, carts will remain closed for the next 10 days and we will reassess again then. Using 2424 allows us to manage our warehouse pool to the stick while keeping an eye on re-supply trendlines. 

Hang in there and thank you for your help and understanding 

 

[Cairo]

Really appreciate your "straight shooting" with us...

[moneyneversleeps]

Thanks for the update.

[Rhinoww]

Your transparency is very much appreciated. 

[Chas.Alpha]

Rob, just give Dee a raise and end this now!😅

[LordAnubis]

JLP and Guants must be stockpiled to the brim. Never in doubt of running out, ever. Put your marketing hat on and sell it to us. I await the video review with Ken

[westg]

Hold Fast RA. Love the attitude and vision. 😎🌴❤️

[Chibearsv]

Not good news. I wish the best for you and your family more than my personal inventory. Hang in there brother. Hopefully the tunnel isn’t too long. 

[El Presidente]

  On 8/13/2021 at 2:30 PM, therealrsr said:

Does the cargo flight reference imply a stockpile in HSA warehouses?  Just looking for a silver lining I guess.

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Unfortunately not. Under 3 million sticks at last report and little of that was premium. 

[Mickey D]

Appreciate the update Rob. 

[teamrandr]

  On 8/13/2021 at 8:57 PM, El Presidente said:

Unfortunately not. Under 3 million sticks at last report and little of that was premium. 

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Is there any sense of when they will be able to get back to decent production?  Is the main issue lack of workers?

[El Presidente]

  On 8/13/2021 at 11:11 PM, teamrandr said:

Is there any sense of when they will be able to get back to decent production?  Is the main issue lack of workers?

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When they get Covid under control and get back to a full or near full factory numbers consistently.  Best estimate:  November/December? 

In terms of making a dint in global supply, you wouldn't expect things to improve until May/June next year

[Meesterjojo]

Well, on the flip side I've got about 20 boxes of D4s just sitting around. Give me something to work through during the dry spells.

I hope the best for yall at FOH, though. I know tough times can be scary. Sorry.

[kalibratecuba]

I'm glad @Raskol didn't convince me to sell anything from my stock. 😜

[Raskol]

  On 8/14/2021 at 2:13 PM, kalibratecuba said:

I'm glad [mention=29867]Raskol[/mention] didn't convince me to sell anything from my stock.

Time to buy...

Sent from my SM-G986B using Tapatalk

[Bolismoker]

Thanks for the update


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[SCgarman]

  On 8/13/2021 at 11:30 PM, El Presidente said:

When they get Covid under control and get back to a full or near full factory numbers consistently.  Best estimate:  November/December? 

In terms of making a dint in global supply, you wouldn't expect things to improve until May/June next year

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Wow, almost a year to get up and running to some semblance of normal. That is a long ways off. Does this mean the factories in Havana will have leaf to roll with more significant age on it? 

 

  On 8/12/2021 at 11:24 PM, LordAnubis said:

JLP and Guants must be stockpiled to the brim. Never in doubt of running out, ever. Put your marketing hat on and sell it to us. I await the video review with Ken

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Glad I like the petit corona size sticks, not much else available. So buying up a few boxes of Marevas. When the Marevas dry up, look out! 

[El Presidente]

  On 8/14/2021 at 7:57 PM, NYgarman said:

Wow, almost a year to get up and running to some semblance of normal. That is a long ways off. Does this mean the factories in Havana will have leaf to roll with more significant age on it? 

 

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Not really. 18 months is fairly negligible in the world of tobacco. 

 

[99call]

  On 8/12/2021 at 10:22 PM, El Presidente said:

including DC 50

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Many thanks for the Update, is this Hoyo, or Punch?

Cheers, Stefan

[BeerPimp]

Thanks for being so transparent.   I always assumed that on the 24:24 the more cigars that show up with very young dates the tighter the supply is getting.   It will be interesting to see how the next 1-2 years goes in the CC world.

[Troels]

All that massive hoarding over the years makes sense for once 🤗

[Cairo]

  On 8/15/2021 at 5:48 PM, 99call said:

Punch?

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The Punch DC 50 cigar cab was discontinued in 2017--Ref: https://www.cubancigarwebsite.com/brand/punch

[ChangBang]

Our "hoarding" turns out to be "careful planning"  lol.

Yep imagine the DCs will be either Hoyo DCs or Lusi's

[99call]

  On 8/15/2021 at 6:35 PM, Cairo said:

The Punch DC 50 cigar cab was discontinued in 2017--Ref: https://www.cubancigarwebsite.com/brand/punch

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[SCgarman]

  On 8/15/2021 at 6:34 PM, Troels said:

All that massive hoarding over the years makes sense for once 🤗

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Certainly doesn't hurt to have a nice inventory built up over the years. Slim pickin's ahead.