Impact of the new Coronavirus where you are?

[JamesKPolkEsq]

I truly hope those alleging an international conspiracy re: COVID-19 death totals are merely being internet irresponsible vs. being meatspace irresponsible. 

Take a quick look at this CDC video comparing obituaries from before and after the outbreak in Italy. 

Stay safe. 

[99call]

1 hour ago, PigFish said:

Statistically X people will die this year. So the question being asked is this. Does the novel virus actually represent a case where there will be 1.xx times the nominal year death count or not?

My question is not cold, nor insensitive. It is simply exploring the data for facts about the mortality of the virus in a sea of what will be total mortality, with our without the virus.

Carry on! -Piggy

Ever the outlier Ray!  I feel positive if there was some council vehicle mounted with tannoy speakers outside your house commanding

"Everyone outside for a Government ordered BBQ, Ice cold non-alcholic beer on tap. Cabs of perfectly aged Partagas Lonsdales MUST! I repeat MUST, be accepted"     

that you would be inside, in a cold sweat behind your sofa, with the lights off, waiting for the mandatory party to pass. 

I'm not for one minute suggesting you would be part of, say an ever growing group of people who believe things like vaccines are poison.   But why oh why? must everything these days be met with some degree of "yeah right!, I'll make up my own mind on that thank you very much".    It's really sad to hear currently in the UK that the draconian measures the government feel 100% must be adopted in order to save lives, has only a projected 50% adoption rate. 

50% of people in the UK couldn't care less,  that their actions could put others at risk!??  I find that really depressing. 

Liberty and freedom are wonderful things, but they can, if distilled and grafted away from a sense of social responsibility, and care for you fellow man/women, actually just turn into a shit show of everyone for themselves. 

As the undisputed "king of the graphs" you might find this article useful in terms of mitigation and projected deaths

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

I hope you and yours stay safe Ray.  take care

 

[Islandboy]

I cooked bacon and eggs this morning, and the effects of this Sunday feast are profound. I feel much better about the prospect of domestic isolation, and yes, I do wish more people would agree with Ken.

The time to hoard bacon is now.

[El Presidente]

1 hour ago, helix said:

True,  but when they have to be hauling bodies to the morgue for cremation in military convoys...….. 

You won't convince some people.

Body bags to the wazoo or exhausted medical staff begging for help simply doesn't resonate.

 

[99call]

5 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

You won't convince some people.

Body bags to the wazoo or exhausted medical staff begging for help simply doesn't resonate.

 

All you need to do, is run a story suggesting,  Bigfoot, Yeti's, Nessy, Lord Lukan, and Shergar are all infected with Corona Virus,  and on the loose.     This will scare them witless 

[cbaty08]

9 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

You won't convince some people.

Body bags to the wazoo or exhausted medical staff begging for help simply doesn't resonate.

 

Like the old saying goes "You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink."

[JohnS]

11 hours ago, Fuzz said:

Correction, non-essential services are to be locked down in 48 hours. There is no indication how long the lock down will remain.

Yes, in the next 48 hours is what I meant, of course. However, updates are so consistent that this news will soon be updated with further shutdowns I'm sure. I had mentioned schools will shut from Tuesday, there's now word that the NSW Premier, Gladys Berejiklian, will announce that schools will transition to on-line classes from Tuesday. Then again, she may not. I think I'll just wait a few hours and stop listening to media speculation! ?

[helix]

wow tough go in NSW, drought , fires, pandemic ! GLTA.

[Colt45]

25 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

You won't convince some people.

Body bags to the wazoo or exhausted medical staff begging for help simply doesn't resonate.

I'd kind of said I was done with this but if I may...

I don't believe anybody doubts the reality or severity. But what I think some members are saying is that deaths are being attributed directly to the virus when in reality the underlying conditions are the main factor. Most of the newscasts where I am are quick to mention the underlying causes, but the headline has always been c19 death.

[helix]

Main factor Coronavirus  . Underlying conditions just a factor.

[El Presidente]

21 minutes ago, Colt45 said:

I'd kind of said I was done with this but if I may...

I don't believe anybody doubts the reality or severity. But what I think some members are saying is that deaths are being attributed directly to the virus when in reality the underlying conditions are the main factor. Most of the newscasts where I am are quick to mention the underlying causes, but the headline has always been c19 death.

Ross ,I honestly don't understand the point of it. 

Is there a decimal point adjustment required? Perhaps it is simply that medical teams are too busy right now to reassess the paperwork?

Let's say 75 people in that demographic would die over a normal Saturday in Italy.  That leaves 700 that did. Does that really add any value right now? Does it make people feel better?

[The Squiggler]

not sure if anybody has shared this, but it's an interesting little article/interview:

The Doctor Who Helped Defeat Smallpox Explains What's Coming

There's not too much here that we haven't all heard before I suppose, but it's interesting to see it all presented in a format that isn't the evening news... a few excerpts:

 

"Larry Brilliant says he doesn’t have a crystal ball. But 14 years ago, Brilliant, the epidemiologist who helped eradicate smallpox, spoke to a TED audience and described what the next pandemic would look like. At the time, it sounded almost too horrible to take seriously. “A billion people would get sick," he said. “As many as 165 million people would die. There would be a global recession and depression, and the cost to our economy of $1 to $3 trillion would be far worse for everyone than merely 100 million people dying, because so many more people would lose their jobs and their health care benefits, that the consequences are almost unthinkable... Now the unthinkable is here, and Brilliant, the Chairman of the board of Ending Pandemics, is sharing expertise with those on the front lines."

"...there's nothing in the virology that makes me frightened that we won’t get a vaccine in 12 to 18 months. Eventually, we will get to the epidemiologist gold ring... That means, A, a large enough quantity of us have caught the disease and become immune. And B, we have a vaccine. "

"I'm in the age group that has a one in seven mortality rate if I get it. If you're not worried, you're not paying attention. But I'm not scared. I firmly believe that the steps that we're taking will extend the time that it takes for the virus to make the rounds. I think that, in turn, will increase the likelihood that we will have a vaccine or we will have a prophylactic antiviral in time to cut off, reduce, or truncate the spread. Everybody needs to remember: This is not a zombie apocalypse. It's not a mass extinction event."

full article:

https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus-interview-larry-brilliant-smallpox-epidemiologist/?utm_source=pocket-newtab

[Colt45]

31 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

Ross ,I honestly don't understand the point of it. 

Is there a decimal point adjustment required? Perhaps it is simply that medical teams are too busy right now to reassess the paperwork?

Let's say 75 people in that demographic would die over a normal Saturday in Italy.  That leaves 700 that did. Does that really add any value right now? Does it make people feel better?

So firstly, it's very important to say that I'm not trying to speak for anyone (should really go without saying). I'm not really looking at the math, so to speak. I am kind of trying to look at the bigger picture of things, and not succumb to the fear mongers. How things are reported vs. the reality. I've already stated some of my beliefs. The more people that are tested, the more that show positive - no crap. All of this just continues to show me how weak humans really are - not necessarily physically, but in mind and spirit.

 

[Zigatoh]

If it makes anyone feel better about the numbers, a lot of deaths are attributed to an underlying health condition such as metastatic cancer when the person actually died of something else like an infection. Arguing about what to put on the death certificate doesn't help anyone. 

If the projections are accurate then in the UK without social distancing and measures like closing schools 250,000 people die of covid19, with them it's 20,000.

I'm staying home with my two kids until I absolutely have to go out for food.

Funny thing is it's actually really easy these days, Skype, online gaming, Google classroom and a world of online educational resources, people like Joe Wicks doing daily exercise classes for kids. Imagine social isolation when we were kids. 

[El Presidente]

18 minutes ago, Colt45 said:

So firstly, it's very important to say that I'm not trying to speak for anyone (should really go without saying). I'm not really looking at the math, so to speak. I am kind of trying to look at the bigger picture of things, and not succumb to the fear mongers. How things are reported vs. the reality. I've already stated some of my beliefs. The more people that are tested, the more that show positive. No crap. All of this just continues to show me how weak humans really are - not necessarily physically, but in mind and spirit.

 

I am no lover of media or government mate. 

Those pictures on the weekend of  Italian nurses with bruised faces as a result of double shifts with masks on, shows me how strong the human race can be "in mind and spirit". 

They were begging the world  for a frontline hand. I think we can do better than to question the seriousness of their situation by looking for statistical "Aha! moments".   That can wait. 

 

 

[Nino]

I am more and more certain of two things :

Einstein was right and Darwin will have a lot of candidates.

[PigFish]

.... well I sure as hell know who is panic buying up all the toilet paper!!! -LOL -Piggy

[Colt45]

1 hour ago, El Presidente said:

I am no lover of media or government mate. 

Those pictures on the weekend of  Italian nurses with bruised faces as a result of double shifts with masks on, shows me how strong the human race can be "in mind and spirit". 

They were begging the world  for a frontline hand. I think we can do better than to question the seriousness of their situation by looking for statistical "Aha! moments".   That can wait. 

 

I've not seen the pics, but I doubt anybody is questioning the seriousness of their situation. I'd certainly hope that their neighbors stepped up to help. The aha moments look to be a two way street.

[Ken Gargett]

2 hours ago, Colt45 said:

I'd kind of said I was done with this but if I may...

I don't believe anybody doubts the reality or severity. But what I think some members are saying is that deaths are being attributed directly to the virus when in reality the underlying conditions are the main factor. Most of the newscasts where I am are quick to mention the underlying causes, but the headline has always been c19 death.

colt, if i understand, you are saying that a number of people were not that healthy or they were old or had diabetes or whatever and then along came the virus and tipped them over the edge. fair enough. but whether or not the virus played a major or minor role, who gives a toss. no virus and the vast majority of those people are still alive. and no doubt historians, statisticians, anyone interested, will be crunching the numbers once we are through this. but for now, i simply don't understand why any of this is relevant. the virus is killing people. a lot of people. if fred smith fell off the perch and it was wrongly attributed to the virus, so what, at the moment. there are plenty dying from it. 

[Colt45]

15 minutes ago, Ken Gargett said:

colt, if i understand, you are saying that a number of people were not that healthy or they were old or had diabetes or whatever and then along came the virus and tipped them over the edge.

I'm not saying anything. Live your life. I'll live mine.

[Fuzz AI]

3 hours ago, JohnS said:

Yes, in the next 48 hours is what I meant, of course. However, updates are so consistent that this news will soon be updated with further shutdowns I'm sure. I had mentioned schools will shut from Tuesday, there's now word that the NSW Premier, Gladys Berejiklian, will announce that schools will transition to on-line classes from Tuesday. Then again, she may not. I think I'll just wait a few hours and stop listening to media speculation! ?

Looks like I won't be shutting. As I supply businesses that can remain open, I will remain open.

[Ken Gargett]

12 minutes ago, Colt45 said:

I'm not saying anything. Live your life. I'll live mine.

well with respect, you have put up several posts along those lines. so saying, writing, posting, however you want to define it. 

[Fugu]

7 hours ago, PigFish said:

Statistically X people will die this year. So the question being asked is this. Does the novel virus actually represent a case where there will be 1.xx times the nominal year death count or not?

My question is not cold, nor insensitive. It is simply exploring the data for facts about the mortality of the virus in a sea of what will be total mortality, with our without the virus.

Two crashing 737 MAX won't make a blip in any death-count chart - still, they keep planes on the ground for the investigations, with all consequences - and we are thankful for that, aren't we?

But are these truly the questions that need to be put forward in this situation?!

I think, the basic question that needs a very careful consideration and weighting is this, and this might be where Ray and Ross are really coming from: Are we choking our economics by the measures now taken in a way that it might be causing even more misery and hardship, and as such possibly even more indirect and direct deaths - or let's put it "shorten lives" - in the medium to long run? At least that's what I am concerned about. And that 'dying' will not be as obvious and dramatic, it'll come slowly and almost unnoticed in the background 'noise'.

One could be cynic and say, the majority of folks dying had lived their lives (or suggest measures to isolate just those at really high-risk, like some economists do). On the other hand, those who now lose their jobs and can't pay their bills, those entrepreneurs that have to close their businesses forever, who perhaps just invested and are now locked down, or who will take years and years to recover, if ever, those will have to carry this for a big part of their own remaining lives. Or not least the young folks that just were about to start out on their career and now don't get the job anymore they had just been looking forward to. Or if they do, then have to make do with 50% or less of their normal wages, plus will possibly have to carry with them a huge public dept by their resp. states from now on? This sure is not a non-issue either.

Still it all has to be - and I strongly trust it is being - carefully considered at the moment. Thing is, you won't gain control over the outbreak by half-hearted action. This needs a full braking at a very initial stage to be effective and to gain precious time.

Again - there isn't a simple answer.

5 hours ago, 99call said:

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56

Good article - strongly suggest everybody take the 30 min to read.

[wineguy]

2 hours ago, El Presidente said:

I am no lover of media or government mate. 

Those pictures on the weekend of  Italian nurses with bruised faces as a result of double shifts with masks on, shows me how strong the human race can be "in mind and spirit". 

They were begging the world  for a frontline hand. I think we can do better than to question the seriousness of their situation by looking for statistical "Aha! moments".   That can wait. 

 

 

Maybe I can add a perspective as someone who tested positive for Covid 19 three days ago and has relatively minor symptoms.  I doubt I am the first on the forum to test positive i wonder why no one is coming  forth? There should be no stigma.  My experience has been like one of the more milder colds I have had in the last couple of years and am nearly symptom free at this point and actually having a bourbon.  I was traveling in Jackson Hole, Wyoming skiing with my kids and about 15 others and having a great time. When we left it was not as serious, even the subject of joke. When we came back it was not.  About 6 of us so far are sick and all have very mild symptoms.  So it seems to be a non issue for everyone involved.  However, we are all strong fit and relatively young, if we visited a parent or relative who had issues then I think we could wind up with major regrets.  I have not been out of my house for a week except for the test and won't be for nearly 2 more weeks.  I would argue that to take this seriously is to respect society and help us get back to normal faster.  Please Stay Home- and have some cigars!

[El Presidente]

27 minutes ago, wineguy said:

Maybe I can add a perspective as someone who tested positive for Covid 19 three days ago and has relatively minor symptoms.  I doubt I am the first on the forum to test positive i wonder why no one is coming  forth?

Get well!!!

You are indeed the first person that I know who is COVID 19 Positive.