Impact of the new Coronavirus where you are?

[Colt45]

31 minutes ago, Cubadust said:

 It's the healthcare system that's going to collapse and it would collapse just by the share amount of people that get it.

But why? If the vast majority who get it have relatively minor symptoms  ( and that's how it's been reported it will manifest ) and don't need hospital treatment, with only a serious minority needing hospital beds, why will things collapse?

[cbaty08]

1 minute ago, Colt45 said:

But why? If the vast majority who get it have relatively minor symptoms  ( and that's how it's been reported it will manifest ) and don't need hospital treatment, with only a serious minority needing hospital beds, why will things collapse?

Because there aren't enough beds in hospitals to care for those who will need it. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/cuomo-says-trump-is-dispatching-a-floating-hospital-to-new-york-state.html

[Colt45]

6 minutes ago, cbaty08 said:

Because there aren't enough beds in hospitals to care for those who will need it. 
 

Perhaps, but we won't know until it actually happens - regardless of what we read on the internet.

[cbaty08]

Go ahead and read this MIT article, and let me know what you think afterward, Colt45.
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615370/coronavirus-pandemic-social-distancing-18-months/

[Colt45]

Just now, cbaty08 said:

Go ahead and read this MIT article, and let me know what you think afterward, Colt45.
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615370/coronavirus-pandemic-social-distancing-18-months/

I took a nice walk this afternoon. A sunny, beautiful March day (albeit a little chilly by the ocean) Really busy, plenty of people enjoying themselves. I'm done with the scaremongers. I've said what I've had to say. It's nothing more than what I feel.

[KnightsAnole]

By Jeremy Young:  (professor at a University in Utah)

 

 

We can now read the report on COVID-19 that so terrified every public health manager and head of state from Boris Johnson to Donald Trump to the dictator of El Salvador that they ordered people to stay in their houses. I read it yesterday afternoon and haven't been the same since. I urge everyone to read it, but maybe have a drink first, or have your family around you. It is absolutely terrifying. The New York TImes confirms that the CDC and global leaders are treating it as factual.

 

Here's a brief rundown of what I'm seeing in here. Please correct me in comments if I'm wrong.

 

The COVID-19 response team at Imperial College in London obtained what appears to be the first accurate dataset of infection and death rates from China, Korea, and Italy. They plugged those numbers into widely available epidemic modeling software and ran a simulation: what would happen if the United States did absolutely nothing -- if we treated COVID-19 like the flu, went about business as usual, and let the virus take its course?

 

Here's what would happen: 80% of Americans would get the disease. 0.9% of them would die. Between 4 and 8 percent of all Americans over the age of 70 would die. 2.2 million Americans would die from the virus itself.

 

It gets worse. Most people who are in danger of dying from COVID-19 need to be put on ventilators. 50% of those put on ventilators still die, but the other 50% live. But in an unmitigated epidemic, the need for ventilators would be 30 times the number of ventilators in the United States. Virtually no one who needed a ventilator would get one. 100% of patients who need ventilators would die if they didn't get one. So the actual death toll from the virus would be closer to 4 million Americans -- in a span of 3 months. 8-15% of all Americans over 70 would die.

 

How many people is 4 million Americans? It's more Americans than have died all at once from anything, ever. It's the population of Los Angeles. It's four times the number of Americans who died in the Civil War...on both sides combined. It's two-thirds as many people as died in the Holocaust.

 

Americans make up 4.4% of the world's population. So if we simply extrapolate these numbers to the rest of the world -- now we're getting into really fuzzy estimates, so the margin of error is pretty great here -- this gives us 90 million deaths globally from COVID-19. That's 15 Holocausts. That's 1.5 times as many people as died in World War II, over 12 years. This would take 3-6 months.

 

Now, it's unrealistic to assume that countries wouldn't do ANYTHING to fight the virus once people started dying. So the Imperial College team ran the numbers again, this time assuming a "mitigation" strategy. A mitigation strategy is pretty much what common sense would tell us to do: America places all symptomatic cases of the disease in isolation. It quarantines their families for 14 days. It orders all Americans over 70 to practice social distancing. This is what you've seen a lot of people talking about when they say we should "flatten the curve": try to slow the spread of the disease to the people most likely to die from it, to avoid overwhelming hospitals.

 

And it does flatten the curve -- but not nearly enough. The death rate from the disease is cut in half, but it still kills 1.1 million Americans all by itself. The peak need for ventilators falls by two-thirds, but it still exceeds the number of ventilators in the US by eight times, meaning most people who need ventilators still don't get them. That leaves the actual death toll in the US at right around 2 million deaths. The population of Houston. Two civil wars. One-third of the Holocaust. Globally, 45 million people die: 7.5 Holocausts, 3/4 of World War II. That's what happens if we use common sense: the worst death toll from a single cause since the Middle Ages.

 

Finally, the Imperial College team ran the numbers a third time, this time assuming a "suppression" strategy. In addition to isolating symptomatic cases and quarantining their family members, they also simulated social distancing for the entire population. All public gatherings and most workplaces shut down. Schools and universities close. (Note that these simulations assumed a realistic rate of adherence to these requirements, around 70-75% adherence, not that everyone follows them perfectly.) This is basically what we are seeing happen in the United States today.

 

This time it works! The death rate in the US peaks three weeks from now at a few thousand deaths, then goes down. We hit, but don't exceed (at least not by very much), the number of available ventilators. The nightmarish death tolls from the rest of the study disappear; COVID-19 goes down in the books as a bad flu instead of the Black Death.

 

But here's the catch: if we EVER relax these requirements before a vaccine is administered to the entire population, COVID-19 comes right back and kills millions of Americans in a few months, the same as before. The simulation does indicate that, after the first suppression period (lasting from now until July), we could probably lift restrictions for a month, followed by two more months of suppression, in a repeating pattern without triggering an outbreak or overwhelming the ventilator supply. If we staggered these suppression breaks based on local conditions, we might be able to do a bit better. But we simply cannot ever allow the virus to spread throughout the entire population in the way other viruses do, because it is just too deadly. If lots of people we know end up getting COVID-19, it means millions of Americans are dying. It simply can't be allowed to happen.

 

How quickly will a vaccine be here? Already, medical ethics have been pushed to the limit to deliver one. COVID-19 was first discovered a few months ago. Last week, three separate research teams announced they had developed vaccines. Yesterday, one of them (with FDA approval) injected its vaccine into a live person, without waiting for animal testing. Now, though, they have to monitor the test subject for fourteen months to make sure the vaccine is safe. This is the part of the testing that can't be rushed: the plan is to inoculate the entire human population, so if the vaccine itself turned out to be lethal for some reason, it could potentially kill all humans, which is a lot worse than 90 million deaths. Assuming the vaccine is safe and effective, it will still take several months to produce enough to inoculate the global population. For this reason, the Imperial College team estimated it will be about 18 months until the vaccine is available.

 

During those 18 months, things are going to be very difficult and very scary. Our economy and our society will be disrupted in profound ways. Worst of all, if the suppression policies actually work, it will feel like we are doing all this for nothing, because the infection and death rates will be very low. It's easy to get people to come together in common sacrifice in the middle of a war. It's very hard to get them to do so in a pandemic that looks invisible precisely because suppression methods are working. But that's exactly what we're going to have to do.

 

Link to study: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

 

Keep Safe!!!!

[Cubadust]

6 minutes ago, Colt45 said:

Perhaps, but we won't know until it actually happens - regardless of what we read on the internet.

But it's already happening, maybe not in your city but elsewhere. You think what's been happening in Italy and now Spain and France are just internet rumors? You don't think the hospitals were full even before this virus? For example, they found 5 blood clots (don't know the exact english term for it but I'm sure you understand) in my dad, 3 in his legs and 2 in the groin area. This was back in october and he was told they should find him a time to do "simple" surgery around new years, it was urgent but no emergency. He doesn't get any fresh blood to his legs so he can't walk for more than 5 minutes. He finally were told last week that he got his slot, now on the 24th. He went there yesterday to meet the doctors and were told that they can't do anything now because they have to treat all the corona patients plus people with serious problems, like heart and lung patients. He was told to call them if his foot started to turn black. You think he's the only one here that need surgery that's on hold now?

[Euripidespants]

Cubadust...sounds like your dad has peripheral vascular disease...in most hospital systems (especially socialized medical systems) that means it’s an elective procedure unless there’s obvious ischemia/infarction and gangrene (thus the black foot comment). Unfortunately in a crisis situation or over stressed hospital system if ischemia develops that treatment usually ends up in amputation. In a crisis or socialized overstressed hospital system urgent conditions aren’t treated until they are an emergent condition. Unfortunately in the case of a pandemic and impending bed shortages even urgent cases take a back burner, even in the best hospital systems. A patient with peripheral vascular disease is more likely to need an ICU bed even after a relatively minor procedure (I assume they were planning angioplasty over bypass). 
 

so for now the vast majority of elective procedures are being deferred even further to keep icu and critical care beds open in anticipation of an oncoming onslaught. In a pandemic/crisis situation the medical community has to revert to triage.  It’s unfortunate and in a better situation your dad would have been treated already. Really rough situation.
 

Best of luck

[Deeg]

On the treatment front there's also Favipiravir, which was developed in Japan to treat influenza but shows promise in COVID-19 and is being put in accelerated clinical trials.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/18/japanese-flu-drug-clearly-effective-in-treating-coronavirus-says-china

I suspect that reasonably effective treatment options are going to be a practical factor in fighting this quite a bit faster than a vaccine (which is still likely 12-18 months away in even optimistic scenarios, no matter what politicians say).  If you can flatten the curve enough to prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed (which requires mandated social distancing which also tanks the economy, unfortunately) and effectively treat most of the serious cases, that's a good start.

[Fuzz AI]

24 minutes ago, Euripidespants said:

Cubadust...sounds like your dad has peripheral vascular disease...in most hospital systems (especially socialized medical systems) that means it’s an elective procedure unless there’s obvious ischemia/infarction and gangrene (thus the black foot comment). Unfortunately in a crisis situation or over stressed hospital system if ischemia develops that treatment usually ends up in amputation. In a crisis or socialized overstressed hospital system urgent conditions aren’t treated until they are an emergent condition. Unfortunately in the case of a pandemic and impending bed shortages even urgent cases take a back burner, even in the best hospital systems. A patient with peripheral vascular disease is more likely to need an ICU bed even after a relatively minor procedure (I assume they were planning angioplasty over bypass). 
 

so for now the vast majority of elective procedures are being deferred even further to keep icu and critical care beds open in anticipation of an oncoming onslaught. In a pandemic/crisis situation the medical community has to revert to triage.  It’s unfortunate and in a better situation your dad would have been treated already. Really rough situation.
 

Best of luck

Our hospitals are rushing to get as many elective surgeries done before they are inundated with coronavirus patients.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw-hospital-elective-surgery-blitz-before-coronavirus-crunch-20200317-p54aw4.html

[Euripidespants]

Severa treatment options are being proposed and tried. One of the more interesting responses has been the response to chloroquine, an old anti-malarial drug. Preliminary responses have been promising.

keep in mind...one of the most lethal viruses known to man, if not the most lethal...we had a non vaccinated survivor for the firsts time in history by blasting the patient with antiviral drugs created in the last 20 years in response to HIV/AIDS. Those a drugs are being proven to work against multiple viruses even though they were developed against retroviruses 

 

edit to clarify...was talking about rabies in the last paragraph. The fact that we had a rabies survivor is a massive medical accomplishment 

[Ken Gargett]

this is really worth watching. 

this guy is one of the real experts – an American public-health scientist and a biosecurity and infectious-disease expert, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, a Regents Professor, the McKnight Presidential Endowed Chair in Public Health, a Distinguished Teaching Professor in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, a professor in the Technological Leadership Institute, College of Science and Engineering, and lots more, so has a fair degree of expertise. 

 

 

e.

[benfica_77]

36 minutes ago, Ken Gargett said:

this is really worth watching. 

this guy is one of the real experts – an American public-health scientist and a biosecurity and infectious-disease expert, the director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, a Regents Professor, the McKnight Presidential Endowed Chair in Public Health, a Distinguished Teaching Professor in the Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, a professor in the Technological Leadership Institute, College of Science and Engineering, and lots more, so has a fair degree of expertise. 

 

 

e.

There's a 90 minute Joe Rogan podcast that goes into deeper detail. Very good. 

[BellevilleMXZ]

11 hours ago, Silverstix said:

Overheard 2 coworkers in the office this morning - one of them has 2 college aged kids at home who both have fevers and are "sick".....and this woman decides its a good idea to come to work??? After I made a big stink about it, they sent her home.  I swear, if the government ever ends up stepping in and mandating a lock down, it's because we are complete morons who can't be trusted to have any common sense whatsoever and we need to be saved from ourselves.

Sadly I keep hearing talk like this is overblown, and even a hoax. Common sense , is well.....

[Meklown]

I'm not sure if this is a violation of human rights or just simply funny 

Also apparently, (with a bucket of salt) China was able to report 0 new local cases today, for the first time since the start of the crisis. 

[BellevilleMXZ]

16 hours ago, helix said:

Cuban government is doing nothing , it is going to hit very hard in Cuba.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/cuba/article241223066.html

Ya, I have a facebook group im in for resorts I like in Cuba....People are still going, and posting pics, like its all great. Are you f Ing serious?? I wouldn't go if its free.!

 

14 hours ago, tigger said:

What's going on is something that should be taken very seriously, but I'm beginning to suspect that the media and the fear they're fomenting are more dangerous than the virus...

I think a lot of it is, a tleast to some is, the media is always making something out of nothing. So as a result, they think this is the same. I have some American friends, and so many(not all) of them think this is just fabricated to make Trump look bad. I feel bad as I think they are going to get hit bad, and they don't even see it coming.Even here in Canada, I can't count how many people think its all over blown. A lot are coming around, but wow...do a little reading and its BAD. I'm not a doom and gloom kind of guy, but I knew back in Jan. this had a very good chance of a bad storm blowing in. The Wife did some eye rolling for awhile, but she sure sees the big pic now. I should have recorded when she told me how right I was?

[Subcomandante]

Yesterday work said business as usual as a city worker we were essential services. Today we were told we are alternating every other week for at least 3 weeks. The week we work will be a 5 hour work day basically a half day. We still have to be ready to come in so we are basically on standby. So no drinking, drugs, or weed. I have a feeling this will be extended. 

*Los Angeles area. 

[La_Tigre]

[JamesKPolkEsq]

Georgia State's Senate Quarantined

All Georgia state Senate members and employees have been "asked to self-quarantine" for 14 days after a senator tested positive for the novel coronavirus, the legislature confirmed in a statement late Wednesday.

Please, please stay safe!

[Silverstix]

10 hours ago, BellevilleMXZ said:

Sadly I keep hearing talk like this is overblown, and even a hoax. Common sense , is well.....

Yep.  And regardless of how anyone feels about it personally, there are rules.  Follow the damn rules!!!  

[TheCigarslayer]

11 hours ago, BellevilleMXZ said:

Sadly I keep hearing talk like this is overblown, and even a hoax. Common sense , is well.....

To be fair to some of them missing even a few days news is like missing months in times prior. I was speaking to a friend who doesn't really follow "current events" and he was still operating on 1-2 week old information. 1-2 weeks nowadays is a HUGE difference. I had a nice long chat, sent some academic papers to him and he was blown away. 

[iGrizz]

How many people are actually having to work at home or work at home in general? Here in Ohio they have all but locked down the state but everyone in my immediate family still have to report to work everyday with the exception of my dad who technically can work from home but they have not forced anyone to do so.

[Silverstix]

The latest

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/coronavirus/nyc-mayor-eyes-sf-shelter-in-place-model-as-tri-state-cases-near-3500-27-dead/2333955/

[Nino]

Airport staff in Guayaquil/Ecuador block the runway to prevent Iberia and KLM planes to land there - they were trying to evacuate tourists ... city mayor prohibited the landing.

 

 

[helix]

City Mayor Guayaquil gets a Darwin.