In the future ....

[Lotusguy]

  On 4/29/2019 at 7:33 PM, FatherOfPugs said:

Will never get into a vehicle that some AI or another person in a computer center somewhere is operating. I don't even like getting into cars with other people driving. I think there are, and always will be people who love the thrill of driving. If people want it to be an option fine, but the problem is like another has stated, I see this as something a government will impose upon people. I just hope I'm long gone when that day comes. 

Do you fly on planes?

If so, you’re already trusting your life with something mostly flown by a computer.

[MD Puffer]

  On 4/29/2019 at 5:43 AM, JoeyBones777 said:

Can you be my people safe person?...I've already talked kindly to the wounded parts of myself and colored a book so I'm starting to feel better.

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I’m happy to oblige. Plus there’s an ample supply of Play-Doh and kittens to pet in a taxpayer-funded microaggression-free zone at your nearest university. 

[JoeyBones777]

  On 4/29/2019 at 7:49 PM, MD Puffer said:

I’m happy to oblige. Plus there’s an ample supply of Play-Doh and kittens to pet in a taxpayer-funded microaggression-free zone at your nearest university. 

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I'm a dog person. Cats offend me because their independence mocks my entitlement based ideology. Play-Doh is fun tho.?

[Colt45]

It'll pave the way to do away with any kind of off-roading.....

[CaptainQuintero]

  I hope so, at least 30% of the people on the roads in the UK are utterly unsafe to be doing so, some old people who get the car out once a week to terrorise the public but most are idiots with little willy syndrome thinking they are king of the road. 

  Plus it would being about a resurgence in drink driving but a safe version. Have a hot key set up on your phone/key fob that you can drunkenly smush and your car comes and picks you up with a stop at the kebab shop on the way home!

  If it's basically your own personal taxi/chauffeur then bring it on.

  I think the technology isn't there yet, for motorway/highways or US city driving where it's a grid system but in the single lane overthrown lanes that cover the UK/European rural areas, there's just too much unmappable information for the technology I've seen. 

  Personally I think it will come in soon where heavy freight/haulage trucking etc will be autonomous where they essentially only drive on the highway and then get off straight into designated lorry parks/warehousing where stock is unpacked then sent on it's way in smaller human driven vans etc

[CaptainQuintero]

  I guess legislation wouldn't be needed either, insurance companies could do it almost overnight, manual driving insurance costs are put up 10x the current price and autonomous cars have none; the cars come with guaranteed cover that costs nothing extra, the inbuilt cameras will always show the manual drivers was technically at fault so liable for paying out.

[JamesKPolkEsq]

  On 4/29/2019 at 4:34 PM, Lotusguy said:

Decades? You'd be surprised what a Tesla (and I am by no means a fanboy) can do today already. I've also had the privilege to ride in several autonomous test vehicles through my work and it is amazing. We are only a few years away - the biggest hurdle is regulation, not the technology.

 

2020, however, is completely out of the question.

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Consumer Reports among others disagrees with this:

https://advocacy.consumerreports.org/press_release/consumer-reports-tesla-must-prove-safety-before-claiming-self-driving-ability/

Tesla's "autopilot" feature is nothing more thanr driver assist features. Elon likes to claim they let the car drive itself while the legal department says NO IT DOESN'T. 

Getting to 90% self driving is the easy part. The remainder is the part that will take no fewer than 10 years, probably a good deal longer than that. 

But don't take my word for it, here's Ford CEO Jim Hackett :

https://www.engadget.com/2019/04/10/ford-ceo-says-the-company-overestimated-self-driving-cars/

"We overestimated the arrival of autonomous vehicles," said Hackett, who once headed the company's autonomous vehicle division, at a Detroit Economic Club event on Tuesday. Hackett added that "its applications will be narrow, what we call geo-fenced, because the problem is so complex."

If self-driving cars of the fantasy variety were going to work in the near future, or even be close to working, there would be a prototype by now. Not a consumer friendly device. Not "a ready to scale for production device" at non-insane costs. But a machine with 8 billion sensors and 4 tons of computers and whatever else was "necessary" to make it work. We'd have the coast to coast drive that Musk promised 3 years ago even if it took a $100 million decked out car to do it.

And they can't do it.

[Lotusguy]

  On 4/29/2019 at 9:22 PM, JamesKPolkEsq said:

Consumer Reports among others disagrees with this:
https://advocacy.consumerreports.org/press_release/consumer-reports-tesla-must-prove-safety-before-claiming-self-driving-ability/
Tesla's "autopilot" feature is nothing more thanr driver assist features.
Elon likes to claim they let the car drive itself while the legal department says NO IT DOESN'T. 
Getting to 90% self driving is the easy part. The remainder is the part that will take no fewer than 10 years, probably a good deal longer than that. 
But don't take my word for it, here's Ford CEO Jim Hackett :
https://www.engadget.com/2019/04/10/ford-ceo-says-the-company-overestimated-self-driving-cars/
"We overestimated the arrival of autonomous vehicles," said Hackett, who once headed the company's autonomous vehicle division, at a Detroit Economic Club event on Tuesday. Hackett added that "its applications will be narrow, what we call geo-fenced, because the problem is so complex."
If self-driving cars of the fantasy variety were going to work in the near future, or even be close to working, there would be a prototype by now. Not a consumer friendly device. Not a ready to scale for production device at noninsane costs. But a machine with 8 billion sensors and 4 tons of computers and whatever else was "necessary" to make it work. We'd have the coast to coast drive that Musk promised 3 years ago even if it took a $100 million decked out car to do it. And they can't do it.

I suppose time will have to tell. However, keep in mind that a lot of what is possible with current hardware is simply not turned on yet due to missing regulations, liability concerns, et cetera. Mapping data is also still insufficient but the millions of miles logged with the autonomous and semi-autonomous vehicles out there combined with the huge strides in AI will fix this sooner rather than later. There are many billions being invested in this yearly by companies with much deeper pockets than Tesla (think Waymo, Baidu,...).

My ex-wife, for example, already drives San Jose to San Francisco and back daily in a Model 3 while doing her email...

I think we will see a phased introduction of autonomous driving (starting with freeways, for example).

Personally, I barely use my cruise control

[LLC]

I don’t know but if so certainly a long way in the future and maybe just big city centres to start. Many people (me included) enjoy the visceral experience of driving a fun car and hate being a passenger.

What I do know is Elon often has verbal (and typing) diarrhea and says lots of crazy things, usually for a self serving reason.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[lovethehaze]

100% no. Maybe some people will feel this way and maybe car manufacturers will be forced to have one in their fleet but i have worked at an exotic car dealer for many years; Rolls Royce, Bentley, Lamborghini, Ferrari, Mazeratti, Bugatti and little old BMW’s... I’ll try to keep it short. 

Maybe a Rolls owner wants a “free” driver other than this a very small percentage of people who buy a v8 or v12 motor and have their car tuned at over 500 horse minimum and up to as much as they can afford want a computer to drive them the speed limit ... on what if any level does this make sense ?

People drive these cars b/c they can say F... you and like to, not b/c they want anyone telling them what to do. Also as someone else said once the car gets into an accident b/c someone overrides the software b/c it will be available and people will want to, who pays for the accident ? So easy to flash back to stock no one will ever know. 

Not to mention these cars are already big computers on bus and k can lines and guess what always fails ... software  updates galore  so many potential problems it wouldn’t be cost affective or safe on any level.

what about big oil business ... im sure they are ok with this too ... there are so many ways to argue this I won’t waste your time but 100% it’s a loser  ! 

Thats my 2 cents  

Cheers 

[JamesKPolkEsq]

  On 4/29/2019 at 11:18 PM, Lotusguy said:

I suppose time will have to tell. However, keep in mind that a lot of what is possible with current hardware is simply not turned on yet due to missing regulations, liability concerns, et cetera. Mapping data is also still insufficient but the millions of miles logged with the autonomous and semi-autonomous vehicles out there combined with the huge strides in AI will fix this sooner rather than later. There are many billions being invested in this yearly by companies with much deeper pockets than Tesla (think Waymo, Baidu,...).

My ex-wife, for example, already drives San Jose to San Francisco and back daily in a Model 3 while doing her email...

I think we will see a phased introduction of autonomous driving (starting with freeways, for example).

Personally, I barely use my cruise control

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https://www.motortrend.com/news/tesla-autopilot-can-now-handle-freeway-interchanges/

Your wife's autopilot can do the very easiest part of her commute: drive on the highway. It can't navigate city streets, or even country roads. The hardest part of the problem is just a glimmer in Elon's eye.

Don't believe the hype, we are a really long way away from anything approximating autonomous cars. There isn't even a prototype.

[Fuzz]

  On 4/29/2019 at 11:39 PM, lovethehaze said:

100% no. Maybe some people will feel this way and maybe car manufacturers will be forced to have one in their fleet but i have worked at an exotic car dealer for many years; Rolls Royce, Bentley, Lamborghini, Ferrari, Mazeratti, Bugatti and little old BMW’s... I’ll try to keep it short. 

Maybe a Rolls owner wants a “free” driver other than this a very small percentage of people who buy a v8 or v12 motor and have their car tuned at over 500 horse minimum and up to as much as they can afford want a computer to drive them the speed limit ... on what if any level does this make sense ?

People drive these cars b/c they can say F... you and like to, not b/c they want anyone telling them what to do. Also as someone else said once the car gets into an accident b/c someone overrides the software b/c it will be available and people will want to, who pays for the accident ? So easy to flash back to stock no one will ever know. 

Not to mention these cars are already big computers on bus and k can lines and guess what always fails ... software  updates galore  so many potential problems it wouldn’t be cost affective or safe on any level.

what about big oil business ... im sure they are ok with this too ... there are so many ways to argue this I won’t waste your time but 100% it’s a loser  ! 

Thats my 2 cents  

Cheers 

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The same could be said for cigar smokers... and look at how we're slowly being pushed out into the cold.

I foresee a day when the only place people will be able to manually drive their personal vehicle is on track days. All vehicles will be controlled from one central location in each municipality.

Interestingly, one of my favourite short stories is "Sally" by Isaac Asimov. The story describes a future world where all vehicles are autonomous.

[Lotusguy]

  On 4/30/2019 at 2:07 AM, JamesKPolkEsq said:

https://www.motortrend.com/news/tesla-autopilot-can-now-handle-freeway-interchanges/
Your wife's autopilot can do the very easiest part of her commute: drive on the highway. It can't navigate city streets, or even country roads. The hardest part of the problem is just a glimmer in Elon's eye.
Don't believe the hype, we are a really long way away from anything approximating autonomous cars. There isn't even a prototype.

Ex-wife

The Pikes peak Audi TT was in our parking lot and that was 9 years ago...

I am/was in that industry and you guys haven’t seen anything yet.

[nKostyan]

I'm more concerned about the automatic collection and processing of my data over the Internet. Anyone can get on the hook.
As for driving: the modern world is run by corporations. Elon Musk against the backdrop of scandals with Tesla will lobby for the introduction of such a law. First they will force their vassals to do it. Perhaps, in the US such a not will.

[Ryan]

I suppose look at the example of horses. Horses used to be all the rage.

There are no laws against owning them, though they are now mainly used for "track days", in most countries.

There are countries where horses are allowed on motorways/highways, but those are generally the same countries that also allow bicycles on their highways.

I don't think any other country will vote anytime soon to allow horses or bicycles on their highways, as it's obviously dangerous.

The same will be said soon for cars driven by humans.

Putting cars with drivers off the roads will probably be started by insurance companies.

 

[Derboesekoenig]

  On 4/30/2019 at 10:02 AM, Ryan said:

I suppose look at the example of horses. Horses used to be all the rage.

There are no laws against owning them, though they are now mainly used for "track days", in most countries.

There are countries where horses are allowed on motorways/highways, but those are generally the same countries that also allow bicycles on their highways.

I don't think any other country will vote anytime soon to allow horses or bicycles on their highways, as it's obviously dangerous.

The same will be said soon for cars driven by humans.

Putting cars with drivers off the roads will probably be started by insurance companies.

 

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Not in our lifetimes. We've already had instances of many people killed because of autonomous vehicles. Legislature and red tape will follow. Not saying it won't happen eventually...

[IanMcLean68]

  On 4/28/2019 at 11:56 PM, Vortigan said:

Little by little the temperature of the water rises a fraction more while the frog just sits there, apparently and perhaps even wilfully oblivious. We know very well what decisions like this are all about, but we're not allowed to say it of course.

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That's a terrifying analogy - but I think its even worse. The masses won't just sit there and take this legislation obliviously. As Elon eludes, "people will want". They'll ask for it, beg for it, like the obedient little minions our media and governments has brainwashed them into being.

[Lotusguy]

  On 4/30/2019 at 7:19 AM, nKostyan said:

I'm more concerned about the automatic collection and processing of my data over the Internet. Anyone can get on the hook.
As for driving: the modern world is run by corporations. Elon Musk against the backdrop of scandals with Tesla will lobby for the introduction of such a law. First they will force their vassals to do it. Perhaps, in the US such a not will.

You should probably get rid of that handheld recording (audio and video) device that we call a cellphone. It’s crazy what is being tracked already.

[smokum]

That would be a world I would not want to live in.

C15B43E7-7DDE-4003-A6A1-4E7097D95FF2.MOV

[Jal154]

Definitely do not agree with this guy. Sorry but I want control of my vehicle. Too many things can go wrong.

[Corylax18]

  On 4/30/2019 at 10:09 AM, Derboesekoenig said:

Not in our lifetimes. We've already had instances of many people killed because of autonomous vehicles. Legislature and red tape will follow. Not saying it won't happen eventually...

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People driving cars killed more than 40,000 people last year. Please explain to me how half a dozen deaths (if that) from self driving cars is worse, in any way, shape, or form.

  On 4/30/2019 at 2:28 AM, FatherOfPugs said:

As little as possible, don't like flying, just a personal thing. Everybody has their thing they don't like doing. Having a fraternity brother that is a US Naval Aviator, even he has said the best AI we have can't reliably take off and land planes effectively enough to be any good. Still need a human behind the wheel to do those things. 

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Let's not conflate Top Gun with the glorified bus driver that is a commercial airline pilot. I really wanted to be a commercial pilot when I was younger. Then I talked to several of them about what they actually do. Depending on the airline and country they MAY be allowed to take off/land the plane. If the weather is good and the airport doesn't have an ILS system. Otherwise, they are there as insurance, in case something goes wrong. The FAA has already started discussing single pilot flight decks, there's only 1 step left after that.  

When visibility drops below a certain level ("Minimums"), the pilots let the plane land itself, because it's safer. Its been this way for decades, and continues to move in this direction. Look at the 737 Max crashes, over reliance on computer software by pilots who weren't properly trained to fly the plane. Its not a coincidence that the only two crashes happened in countries with poor training and safety records. "TCAS" or Terrain and Collison avoidance software has been a thing on commercial airliners for several decades as well. Planes communicate with each other through ADS-B satellites and their own internal radars. Nothing we are discussing is new or needs to be figured out, just implemented in a different (2 dimensional) space. 

Its going to happen, in my life time, I'm certain. Millennials don't own/drive cars at nearly the rate their parents did and once they realize less driving means more screen time, most will be Happy to let it happen. For the record, I'm not one of these people, but @Vortigan's analogy is perfect. It's already happening.

[ElJavi76]

I believe Elon. He's a time traveler. ?

[Fuzz]

  On 5/1/2019 at 1:24 AM, ElJavi76 said:

I believe Elon. He's a time traveler. ?

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Smoking a whole bunch of pot, and looking through a kaleidoscope to get that "Dr Who" time tunnel view, does not make one a time traveler!

[GasGuy82]

The people advocating for completely autonomous cars and the restriction of personal control of your vehicle due to safety concerns and preserving human life are the same people telling us that our over-population and consumption is leading to or will lead to climate induced flooding, famine and drought. It would seem to me that, as usual, no one is thinking this through. What a great many people have not realized, is that every action has unintended consequences, the more we try to alter natural reactions, the more perverse and unexpected the resulting reactions become.

[Colt45]

  On 5/1/2019 at 6:11 PM, GasGuy82 said:

The people advocating for completely autonomous cars and the restriction of personal control of your vehicle due to safety concerns and preserving human life are the same people telling us that our over-population and consumption is leading to or will lead to climate induced flooding, famine and drought.

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And that we shouldn't be smoking cigars