Question for members: Investment Grade Cigars.

[joeypots]

I think it's a no brainer that you could easily flip the Sir David, PL Corona RE or the Edmundo Dantes. But what's the point if one can't buy them at retail on release?

[Fugu]

13 hours ago, toledo1969 said:

And then I saw some RyJ Hermosos EL from 2004 I remember paying around $450 a box and Recently saw them being sold at that same Auction Site for $500 dlls. That's 14 Years of Aging for 50 dlls.

Depending on where you are sided - but that seems unlikely having been the release price in your area (they were cheaper). I suspect you already paid second market pricing at time of purchase? At least the two mentioned prices appear apples and oranges. Still, there wasn't a big margin to be made with these.

[topdiesel]

Based on the recent trend.  If going for regular production, I would load up on 50 Cabs.  Don't think they will be around in five years.

1. Hoyo DC 50 cab

2. Hoyo Epicure #2 50 cab

3. Partagas Lusitanias 50 cab

4. Partagas short 50 cab

5. Ramon Allones Specially Selected 50 cab

You could swap any of those out for the PLPC.  I would have added the JL#2, but those don't come around anymore.

 

[Derboesekoenig]

Just now, topdiesel said:

Based on the recent trend.  If going for regular production, I would load up on 50 Cabs.  Don't think they will be around in five years.

1. Hoyo DC 50 cab

2. Hoyo Epicure #2 50 cab

3. Partagas Lusitanias 50 cab

4. Partagas short 50 cab

5. Ramon Allones Specially Selected 50 cab

You could swap any of those out for the PLPC.  I would have added the JL#2, but those don't come around anymore.

 

What is the latest Hoyo DC 50 cab? Don't think they made them in 2018 at all

[Fugu]

11 hours ago, NSXCIGAR said:

Also, the 03 RyJ Hermosos No. 1 has done well also. Not sure why, but IIRC I heard rumblings that they were really phenomenal cigars.

They truly are! (a smoke where you literally want to chew and swallow each puff) But even those didn't fare too well. The Hermosos1 is actually one of the few cigars I re-stocked on through secondary sources a decade after their release at attractive pricing (just about 5% annual appreciation by then; positively looking at it from the buyer's point, not so much from the flipper's investor's end ).

11 hours ago, NSXCIGAR said:

Now it seems with the Talisman HSA has finally reached full saturation and even Cohiba ELs are losing some steam.

Too many of them, too frequent. And with HSA more and more skimming a larger share of the flipper's cream (quite understandably so) by boosting pricing right at release, they are becoming less attractive. Adding to the fact that the Talisman seems not coming anywhere near the 1966, but it seems too early for a fair judgement.

The only advantage, for me personally, in stashing away "larger" amounts of certain boxes I see in later enjoyment, in that I am able to control storage and aging conditions, and in keeping certain discontinueds. It does help, though, knowing you can always ditch them without too large a loss should you once find yourself in dire straits at some unforeseen point in the future.

[topdiesel]

2 minutes ago, Derboesekoenig said:

What is the latest Hoyo DC 50 cab? Don't think they made them in 2018 at all

My most recent was Sep 16, but I thought I saw some later 2017 dates.  Don't recall any 2018, but if there were any, someone on this site will chime in. 

[Derboesekoenig]

3 minutes ago, Fugu said:

They truly are! (a smoke where you literally want to chew and swallow each puff) But even those didn't fare too well. The Hermosos1 is actually one of the few cigars I re-stocked on through secondary sources a decade after their release at attractive pricing (just about 5% annual appreciation by then; positively looking at it from the buyer's point, not so much from the flipper's investor's end ).

Too many of them, too frequent. And with HSA more and more skimming a larger share of the flipper's cream (quite understandably so) by boosting pricing right at release, they are becoming less attractive. Adding to the fact that the Talisman seems not coming anywhere near the 1966, but it seems too early for a fair judgement.
 

Maybe not, but what was the CUC price for the 66s? 331 is a great buy for Talisman! Too bad like every other cohiba they were hid/hoarded/etc.

[Fugu]

4 minutes ago, Derboesekoenig said:

Too bad like every other cohiba they were hid/hoarded/etc.

Not at all, the '66 were to be had still mostly two, even three years after release on the primary market. At B&Ms even longer. It was considered an expensive release at that time - go figure!

[earthson]

Anything getting discontinued!  The last runs of HUPC were magic - almost like HSA wanted to flex their muscle while they deleted a 10/10 and relatively consistent (and affordable!) cigar.

I would aim for low-production, "high flash" cigars with good quality. HUSW and the rarer Cohiba should suffice.  Me, I'd pay a respectable premium for 6-year-old RyJPC and PLMC, but I have learned I am *not* the status quo.

[NSXCIGAR]

11 hours ago, Fugu said:

the Talisman seems not coming anywhere near the 1966, but it seems too early for a fair judgement.

I don't know--the Robustos Supremos were much better received than the Talisman right out of the gate. Same with the 1966. I just think the Talisman is not as good as the others. 

11 hours ago, Derboesekoenig said:

Maybe not, but what was the CUC price for the 66s? 331 is a great buy for Talisman! Too bad like every other cohiba they were hid/hoarded/etc.

1966 was $241 CUC. But I never assume CUC prices as most won't get them there. Even Talisman at $331 means less than 100% ROI after a full year. These are readily available at around $600 right now.

And as @Fugu notes, 1966 were available for quite a while in the $500-700 range. Now they're $1,500-2,000. 

5 hours ago, earthson said:

Anything getting discontinued! 

I'd have to strongly disagree here. Discontinued regular production is generally not a good performer on the secondary market. Most cut cigars from the early 2000s are at maybe 200-300% which after 15+ years is not great. Yes, there are exceptions, but just because a cigar is cut does not mean it's desirable. Even something like Boli CE 50s are under $1000. LGC Tainos have done very poorly. Punch RS 11 is also a bust, although RS 12 has fared better, as has both Punch SS 1 & 2. RyJ Ex 4 is highly desirable, but if you ever had one from 95-03 you'd know why. Tremendous cigars and one of my all-time favorites. Pre-2000 will always be desirable as the old Criollo was still in use. 

[El Presidente]

1 hour ago, NSXCIGAR said:

I don't know--the Robustos Supremos were much better received than the Talisman right out of the gate. Same with the 1966. I just think the Talisman is not as good as the others. 

 

In terms of global sales, the Talisman met if not outperformed the CRS and 1966. Reviews are another thing altogether. 

[NSXCIGAR]

3 hours ago, El Presidente said:

In terms of global sales, the Talisman met if not outperformed the CRS and 1966. Reviews are another thing altogether. 

I'm sure sales were there. Just another indication Talisman production was huge. After a year RS was getting fairly tough to find and was already approaching $1000. Talisman is easy to find at about the debut price. And even if Talisman was less well received than the previous Cohiba ELs it was no doubt riding the coattails of the previous Cohiba ELs to some degree and driving sales. I just think HSA finally jumped the shark with this one. 

[ha_banos]

I'd have to strongly disagree here. Discontinued regular production is generally not a good performer on the secondary market. Most cut cigars from the early 2000s are at maybe 200-300% which after 15+ years is not great. Yes, there are exceptions, but just because a cigar is cut does not mean it's desirable. Even something like Boli CE 50s are under $1000. LGC Tainos have done very poorly. Punch RS 11 is also a bust, although RS 12 has fared better, as has both Punch SS 1 & 2. RyJ Ex 4 is highly desirable, but if you ever had one from 95-03 you'd know why. Tremendous cigars and one of my all-time favorites. Pre-2000 will always be desirable as the old Criollo was still in use. 

I'd love to try the Tainos and have had an ex4 from that time. Only had the one though. Not seen any being offered though sadly. Feel free to msg me any pointers though!

The old tobaccos keep coming up. Black, corojo, Criollo. Any good resources I can read? What tobacco was used in what blends etc? Or these still old secrets!?

Thanks
B.

[Wilzc]

5x Sir David. Send your kids to college.
 

Why do suddenly now regret selling off 5ers of Sir Davids.....


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[ha_banos]

11 minutes ago, Wilzc said:

 

 

Why do suddenly now regret selling off 5ers of Sir Davids.....


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Because you're a good man ?

[Lotusguy]

Why do suddenly now regret selling off 5ers of Sir Davids.....


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You’d have to be VERY well connected or lucky to even score one full cab, let alone 5

[Lotusguy]

You’d have to be VERY well connected or lucky to even score one full cab, let alone 5

Edit: this was meant in reply to Senorperfecto

[SigmundChurchill]

I recently ordered 2 boxes of Cohiba “Year of the Pig” Robustos, figuring I will smoke one box and sell the other in a few years.

That never works for me though.  I always end up smoking the second box.?‍♂️

[TBird55]

Have a box of 1966, have never sold cigars, but with that price it's tempting.

[El Presidente]

23 minutes ago, TBird55 said:

Have a box of 1966, have never sold cigars, but with that price it's tempting.

Forgetting the money side for the moment. 

My tastes have changed dramatically over the past 20 years.  I have personal stock that may be valued by others but has no value to me.  I would rather sell those boxes and pick up something I am really enjoying. That is what I will be using FOH Auctions for and I suspect others will as well.  I don't need Cohiba LE's in my life. However I will buy aged Molinos whenever they come up on the auction site. 

[Fugu]

22 hours ago, El Presidente said:

However I will buy aged Molinos whenever they come up

yup... 

Yet, the overarching question for me is this: With all those boxes stashed away in collector's / investor's humidors around the globe, perhaps way more than there will be a corresponding genuine demand for actually smoking them, and with all those hindrances smokers are being confronted with today limiting the opportunities for enjoying a fine cigar in public company - how large is the actual bubble we are facing in this market?

Is there any at all?!

[El Presidente]

5 minutes ago, Fugu said:

yup... 

Yet, the overarching question for me is this: With all those boxes stashed away in collector's / investor's humidors around the globe, perhaps way more than there will be a corresponding genuine demand for actually smoking them, and with all those hindrances smokers are being confronted with today limiting the opportunities for enjoying a fine cigar in public company - how large is the actual bubble we are facing in this market?

Is there any at all?!

Maybe huge. Maybe none. Maybe the growing markets of eastern europe, asia (the middle class will double in the next decade), USA (cuban cigar market is largely still untapped) will absorb any potential excess. Maybe there is a shortfall. No one has a clue at this time but unless I am mistaken, Cuban cigar sales in the UK and Oz have actually increased over the past 5 years......and that is after all the smoking restrictions. 

Collectors are generally passionistas. How many people do we know whose wine collections will far outlive them.....even if they drank a couple of bottles a day!......and still they keep buying!

Aged cuban cigars  are always likely to find a home. Walk into any (almost) B&M in the world and pick up a box of 10 year old Monte 2. None.  Google online, how many are available for purchase today (FB included), 20/30/40/50?  In terms of quantity, inconsequential. Then there is the issue of provenance. How many of those sellers would you buy given that you are always buying the seller?

Or is it all a mirage? 

Your guess is as good as mine 

 

 

 

 

 

[Fugu]

35 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

Your guess is as good as mine 

Sure, if only we could all look into the future....

Yep, and all valid points I agree with. But the picture you're drawing, still, is pretty much current view, today's perspective. There have been consolidation phases in history before. And - my assumption - never so much stock held privately than today. Periods, e.g. following the 90s-boom, when cigars, Cuban as good as Non-Cuban, were hard to move. I remember even times of pricing corrections in retail. Granted, cigars that now realise, at least, solid prices again....

[El Presidente]

Perfectly sound argument.

 

There also has not been (historically) mechanisms allowing for private liquid trade of  cigars (be it for profit or loss). That makes it hard to make period comparisons.