Can you Pick the FOH 2019 Top 10 in order?

[Arctic Dude]

 1.  RyJ Churchill
 2.  BBF
 3.  Upmann Half Corona
 4.  Juan Lopez No. 2
 5.  LGC No. 4
 6.  Montecristo PE
 7.  Partagas E2
 8.  RASS
 9.  Trinidad Fundadores
10. VR Famosos

[CptGoodTimes]

1 HU #2

2 Espys

3 RyJ Churchills 

4 Mag50 

5 QDO54

6 Rio Seco

7 CoRo

8 QDO50

9 RASS

10 PSP2

 

[CrownN7eveN]

1.  RYJ Churchill

2.  H. Upmann #2

3.  H. Upmann Magnum 50

4.  QDO 54

5.  HDM Rio Seco

6.  Partagas Serie P #2

7.  Partagas Lusitania

8.  Connie A

9.  Monte #4

10.  Cohiba Robusto

[ohbob976]

1.Mag 50

2..hoyo petite robusto 

3.qdo 54

4.ryj church 

5.bolivar belicoso

6. uppman no 2

7. sir winston 

8. coro

9 hoyo rio seco 

10. Lusis

[ElJavi76]

10. Monte Petit Edmundo

Río Seco

QdO 54

Connie A

CoRo

SW

Lusi's

Medio Siglo

QdO 50

1. San Juan

[joey rockets]

19 hours ago, Wailbait said:

First thing I did was think of that math.  Monkeys at typewriters, I figured that there are about 100 different cigars currently made.  So on face, it’s a bit less than 100^10.  That is probably more than number of grains of sand on earth.  Even picking the 10 best out of 100 NOT in order is a challenging task.  Then again, I’m a Dodgers fan so when has statistics helped me.   

I only did a quick count but there is not a single list with the same 10 items on them let alone any semblance of order?  This task is mission impossible unless there is some formula that I don't see?

[RDB]

NB edited after seeing Rob's top 11-25! *means new addition 

RyJ Churchill

Lusi

Esplendido

HDM San Juan

QdO 54

BPC*

Upmann No.2*

RASS*

PLPC*

Punch Punch*

[Cigar Salute]

1) El Rey Del Mundo Choix Supreme

2) Cohiba Esplendido

3) Trinidad Coloniales

4) Quai D'Orsay no 50

5) Hoyo de Monterrey Petit Robusto

6) Ramon Allones Small Club Corona

7) Punch Punch

?? Bolivar Royal Corona

9) Montecristo Petit Edmundo

10) Cohiba Medio Siglo

[leafdream54]

1.    RyJ Churchill

2.    Cohiba Robusto

3.    BBF

4.    H Upmann #2

5.    Boli Libertador

6.    QdO 54

7.    H Upmann Conn A

8.    Cohiba Esplendido

9.    Sir Winston

10. Monte #1

[westg]

PLPC

R&J Churchill

Monte PE

Boli Libertador.

QDo 50 

Qdo 54

Monte 4

Partagas Lusitania

Coro

Monte 2

 

[westg]

[Deeg]

Lots of votes for the RA Superiores in here, I see.  What's the general consensus on how they're smoking young?

[Sir Diggamus]

1. Bolivar Belicosos Finos 
2. H Upmann Sir Winston 
3. Cohiba Robustos 
4. RyJ Churchills 
5. Trinidad Fundadores 
6. Trinidad La Trova 
7. Cohiba Esplendidos  
8. Quai d'Orsay no 50
9. Quai d'Orsay no 54
10. Partagas Lusitanias 

 

[Markspring1978]

This is an interesting exercise and some interesting lists. With the past 6 months or so the 24:24 offers a lot of clues to El Prez list, which makes the probabilities increase of a correct answer. Regardless of that, if El Prez offered a master case of Lanceros to a correct answer, I think his case would be safe. 

[Tstew75]

No. No, I can't ?

[The Squiggler]

On 12/5/2019 at 12:41 PM, joey rockets said:

I only did a quick count but there is not a single list with the same 10 items on them let alone any semblance of order?  This task is mission impossible unless there is some formula that I don't see?

Using the suggested figure of 100 cigars to create a rough estimate (if my calculation methods are sound...):

The chance of randomly guessing all 10 correct in any order would be around 1 in 1,731,054,606,352

and the chance of randomly guessing all 10 correct in a specific order would be around 1 in 62,815,650,955,529,470,000 (it's a bit less than 100^10 if you factor in the fact that there will be no repeats, so once a number is removed from the pool, the chances of guessing the next number will be slightly greater)

These are educated (as opposed to random) guesses, of course, so the odds should be quite a bit higher, but still insanely unlikely that anybody could nail it... In other words, yes, mission impossible.

[sho671]

Guess, at best:

1. RASS
2. PLPC
3. Partagas Lusitania
4. Cohiba Esplendido
5. Diplomaticos No 2
6. RyJ Churchill
7. H Upmann No 2
8. HdM Epicure No 2
9. Partagas Serie P No 2
10. Punch Punch

@El Presidente If no one gets it exactly, does the closest get the prize?

[The Squiggler]

26 minutes ago, sho671 said:

If no one gets it exactly, does the closest get the prize?

I think this might be one of those "give you $100 if you can bend this spoon with your mind" sort of scenarios ?

[sho671]

6 minutes ago, The Squiggler said:

I think this might be one of those "give you $100 if you can bend this spoon with your mind" sort of scenarios ?

Ya, that seems to be the case as the task is near impossible, but the other competitions on the forum are drawn randomly from a pool of participants. I figured if you were closer than anybody else, then the prize might be warranted ??‍♂️.

[The Squiggler]

5 minutes ago, sho671 said:

I figured if you were closer than anybody else, then the prize might be warranted ??‍♂️

?????????????????????????????????????????????

[rcarlson]

Okay, if anyone gets this, please contact me immediately to discuss picking a perfect bracket in March.  Then we'll wait for Warren Buffet to throw-up on his shoes.   

 

[rcarlson]

 

4 hours ago, sho671 said:

Guess, at best:

1. RASS
2. PLPC
3. Partagas Lusitania
4. Cohiba Esplendido
5. Diplomaticos No 2
6. RyJ Churchill
7. H Upmann No 2
8. HdM Epicure No 2
9. Partagas Serie P No 2
10. Punch Punch

@El Presidente If no one gets it exactly, does the closest get the prize?

We'll all be dead before that could be worked through.   

[Notsocleaver]

1. Trinidad Fundadores
2. Bolivar Libertador
3. Cohiba Esplendido
4. QdO 50
5. Partagas Lusitania
6. H Upmann No 2
7. Juan Lopez 2
8. Partagas Serie E No 2
9. H Upmann Connie A
10. Punch Punch

[joey rockets]

This challenge intrigues me because it should not be as difficult as it is.  We are computing from regular production from a country without that many marcas and it's probably safe to say that more than half can be eliminated immediately leaving a realistic list that can't be more than 50 or so long?  The challenge is the top 10 in order but it's doubtful many will get more than 8 out of 10 right and in any order?  Considering the wide variance in the guesses, my thoughts are anyone getting 8 of them is near the head of the class?

[The Squiggler]

23 minutes ago, joey rockets said:

This challenge intrigues me because it should not be as difficult as it is.  We are computing from regular production from a country without that many marcas and it's probably safe to say that more than half can be eliminated immediately leaving a realistic list that can't be more than 50 or so long?  The challenge is the top 10 in order but it's doubtful many will get more than 8 out of 10 right and in any order?  Considering the wide variance in the guesses, my thoughts are anyone getting 8 of them is near the head of the class?

I think 8/10 (in no particular order) would still be pretty impressive.  Say you eliminate the 50 most obvious flops of the year and that narrows it down to 50, then you eliminate the 15 that have already been announced, narrowing it to 35, the chances of randomly guessing 10 out of 35 in any order and getting all 10 correct would be ~1/183,579,409.  I'm not going to calculate the odds for 9 correct and 1 incorrect, 8 correct and 2 incorrect, and so on (because the idea makes my brain hurt), but the odds are still going to be pretty slim.  Factor in the fact that the guesses will be informed by recent commentary and personal experience and the odds increase a bit, but still seem pretty narrow.  I don't know... maybe the 'inside scoop' factor increases the odds more than I would guess, but I still think this is a crap shoot.