Snapshot of the Cuban Supply Situation

[El Presidente]

So the masters from "Habanos on High" have indicated that last quarter of 2016 will see a good level of new releases and some cigars that have been thin on the ground.  I wouldn't be getting excited...it is akin to receiving investment advice from Bernie Madoff.

Let's take a snapshot of what supply is like right now. I will only cover the majors. 

 

 Not being made 

Partagas 898 V

Saint Luis Rey Double Corona

HDM Des Dieux

H. Upmann Sir Winston

Partagas Maduro 1 

Cohiba Siglo VI

Behike (All)

Montecristo Especial

HDM Gourmet

LGC MO #2 

 

 

Hardly being made

Cohiba Robusto SLB 25

Cohiba Lancero

Cohiba Esplendidos

Cohiba Corona Especiales

Cohiba Exquisitos

Cohiba Siglo 1/ II / III/ IV/ V  

Punch Double Corona 

Saint Luis Rey Serie A 

 

 

From good quantities to thin "endangered" in the last quarter (Supply is being cut back). 

Bolivar Belicoso Fino 

Diplomatico Number 2 

Bolivar Corona Gigante

Hoyo De Monterrey Epicure 1 

Hoyo De Monterrey Double Corona (25's)

Bolivar Royal Corona 

Partagas Shorts (50 cabinet)

 

 

No doubt I have left out a few. When you consider that Cohiba is their most profitable marque for regular production cigars, 2016 financial results for HSA are going to be challenging. 

The snapshot is as of August 2016. In terms of supply, it is the worst situation I have seen in the 20 years I have been in business. 

I will give a hats off to PCC who are my only supplier. They have bent over backwards to keeping me supplied as best they can and this year will be the biggest we have ever done. 

Still, I can only imagine the scenario if the US embargo was already lifted 

 

 

[archosaur]

I know they are not big movers, but what about the rest of the Le Hoyos?  I know you have put up a lot of Prince, I've been hoping for some du Gourmets but I don't think they have rolled them since the last des Dieux batch either.  Seems like the whole line is at risk of getting amalgamated into the San Juan.

[El Presidente]

13 minutes ago, archosaur said:

I know they are not big movers, but what about the rest of the Le Hoyos?  I know you have put up a lot of Prince, I've been hoping for some du Gourmets but I don't think they have rolled them since the last des Dieux batch either.  Seems like the whole line is at risk of getting amalgamated into the San Juan.

Have added the Du Gourmet to the not being made list. 

Du Maire/Depute are still around in decent quantity. 

[MPfit]

I'm scared the embargo lifted will destroy quality of the cigars. It will, without a doubt, deplete the stocks as the U.S. consume probably well over half the cigar business in total (obviously excluding Cuban cigars). Only time will tell, thanks for showing us this list. A good thing to keep in mind as the boxes come for sale.

[rckymtn22]

What about LGC M d'Or #2 hasn't been made in a couple year but still not officially killed off?

 

[oliverdst]

Well, today I saw a picture of Alemania Regional 16... Big cigar...

[BEVOSREVENGE]

1 hour ago, MPfit said:

I'm scared the embargo lifted will destroy quality of the cigars. It will, without a doubt, deplete the stocks as the U.S. consume probably well over half the cigar business in total (obviously excluding Cuban cigars). Only time will tell, thanks for showing us this list. A good thing to keep in mind as the boxes come for sale.

Doubt the embargo gets lifted anytime soon.  Although if a certain current candidate for POTUS get elected, makes a second term and that party has control of both the house and senate --- then there might be some movement for legacy reasons.

[SCgarman]

The embargo is not going anywhere anytime soon. If it did, the FDA regulations will certainly discourage HSA from bringing Cuban cigars to the US market.

[Blakes]

Can't remember the last time I saw any SLR Serie A either.

[El Presidente]

1 hour ago, rckymtn22 said:

What about LGC M d'Or #2 hasn't been made in a couple year but still not officially killed off?

 

Nothing official to my knowledge bu it has been so long that I forgot about it totally. List amended. 

[El Presidente]

51 minutes ago, Blakes said:

Can't remember the last time I saw any SLR Serie A either.

Has been 4 months since any appeared on the available buy list.  Amended. 

[ElPuro]

This may be crazy, but I actually respect HSA for prioritizing quality vs. quantity. They could produce inferior product and make short-term profits, but appear to recognize the value of the brand. 

[Bohn007]

Recently bought CoRo, Siglo VI's and lucked out on Behike 52's and 54's to stock up and put aside. Never filled the cabinet before in 20 years but after I get in the latest three orders from 24/24 I will be filled to capacity and have to get a secondary storage container. Not taking any chances. 

[Bohn007]

Weird how I rarely see any new production Behike's available but from time to time I see people selling 2012 vintage Behike's in all sizes. 

[wade1979]

5 hours ago, El Presidente said:

So the masters from "Habanos on High" have indicated that last quarter of 2016 will see a good level of new releases and some cigars that have been thin on the ground.  I wouldn't be getting excited...it is akin to receiving investment advice from Bernie Madoff.

Let's take a snapshot of what supply is like right now. I will only cover the majors. 

 

 Not being made 

Partagas 898 V

Saint Luis Rey Double Corona

HDM Des Dieux

H. Upmann Sir Winston

Partagas Maduro 1 

Cohiba Siglo VI

Behike (All)

Montecristo Especial

HDM Gourmet

LGC MO #2 

 

 

Hardly being made

Cohiba Robusto SLB 25

Cohiba Lancero

Cohiba Esplendidos

Cohiba Corona Especiales

Cohiba Exquisitos

Cohiba Siglo 1/ II / III/ IV/ V  

Punch Double Corona 

Saint Luis Rey Serie A 

 

 

From good quantities to thin "endangered" in the last quarter (Supply is being cut back). 

Bolivar Belicoso Fino 

Diplomatico Number 2 

Bolivar Corona Gigante

Hoyo De Monterrey Epicure 1 

Hoyo De Monterrey Double Corona (25's)

Bolivar Royal Corona 

Partagas Shorts (50 cabinet)

 

 

No doubt I have left out a few. When you consider that Cohiba is their most profitable marque for regular production cigars, 2016 financial results for HSA are going to be challenging. 

The snapshot is as of August 2016. In terms of supply, it is the worst situation I have seen in the 20 years I have been in business. 

I will give a hats off to PCC who are my only supplier. They have bent over backwards to keeping me supplied as best they can and this year will be the biggest we have ever done. 

Still, I can only imagine the scenario if the US embargo was already lifted 

 

 

Pres, Can you give us some context on the situation. Have you seen this before? Should this adjust our collecting? Can you remember a time of such slim production of popular lines? What happened once supply came back? How long? Etc?

Thanks!

[Dimmers]

1 hour ago, ElPuro said:

This may be crazy, but I actually respect HSA for prioritizing quality vs. quantity. They could produce inferior product and make short-term profits, but appear to recognize the value of the brand

a nice take on matters, good one!

[El Presidente]

2 minutes ago, wade1979 said:

Pres, Can you give us some context on the situation. Have you seen this before? Should this adjust our collecting? Can you remember a time of such slim production of popular lines? What happened once supply came back? How long? Etc?

Thanks!

I haven't seen it before like this but I only go back to 1996 in the trade. 

There has always been cigars out of stock/unavailable for purchase.  There has never been a Cohiba 'wipe out" + 20-30 other in production cigars...out of production or on "life support".

There are obviously real issues at hand for Tabacuba/HSA.  They play their cards close to their chests with an almost "Monty Python" interface with the market. 

All in all I think they are handling a dire situation well in what they are pumping out with the resources they have.  Communication skills need a little work 

[wade1979]

19 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

I haven't seen it before like this but I only go back to 1996 in the trade. 

There has always been cigars out of stock/unavailable for purchase.  There has never been a Cohiba 'wipe out" + 20-30 other in production cigars...out of production or on "life support".

There are obviously real issues at hand for Tabacuba/HSA.  They play their cards close to their chests with an almost "Monty Python" interface with the market. 

All in all I think they are handling a dire situation well in what they are pumping out with the resources they have.  Communication skills need a little work 

Thank You for the perspective. This anaysis would lead me to be very acquisitive over the next 6 months.  A "grab quality when you can" strategy is my current new course. Uphill battle for sure. 

[JZBdano]

Has anyone heard of similar tobacco crop/production issues coming from Dominican Republic or Honduras?  I would be much more concerned about major supply issues if those countries have suffered from poor harvests also.

[Smallclub]

6 hours ago, JZBdano said:

Has anyone heard of similar tobacco crop/production issues coming from Dominican Republic or Honduras?  I would be much more concerned about major supply issues if those countries have suffered from poor harvests also.

errr… why?

[Corylax18]

1 hour ago, Smallclub said:

errr… why?

Because the islands are right next to each other. One might think if Cuba is having regular weather Issues, there may be weather issues on neighboring islands, Honduras isn't too far away either. 

There is far more to it than that, the level of mechanization and technology used on Dominican/Honduran/Nicaraguan farms leads to much higher productivity per acre to start with. I believe they also use more fertilizers than in Cuba, but I can't say that's the case across every farm in every country. 

I haven't seen anything on "Acres Harvested" or "Tons of Tobacco Harvested" for other countries like we have seen for Cuba, it would be interesting to see if there have been widespread declines in other countries as well.

I remember Connecticut had a rough summer a few years ago, they got a few hails storms and even a tornado that wiped out a huge percentage of that years Shade and broadleaf harvests. I don't seem to recall there being any shortage of Connecticut shade or broadleaf  cigars in the last few years. I will try to track that article down.

[Corylax18]

http://www.cigaraficionado.com/webfeatures/show/id/17150

http://articles.courant.com/2013-07-02/community/hc-tobacco-damage-0703-20130702_1_tobacco-plants-tuesday-morning-reviczky

 

I also stumbled upon this article about Connecticut shade leaf being grown near Sabadero, Cuba for export to Europe. The article is dated from 1995. Does anybody know anything about where this tobacco would have gone, or if this is still happening? Its funny, they are talking about lack of quality wrapper leaf, especially large wrappers, 20 years ago! The second article could have been written yesterday, Baseball bat cigars, no large wrapper leaves. Same Shit Different Day.

http://www.cigaraficionado.com/webfeatures/show/id/7666

http://www.cigaraficionado.com/webfeatures/show/id/Big-Wrapper-Crisis_7705

[Fugu]

21 minutes ago, Corylax18 said:

Its funny, they are talking about lack of quality wrapper leaf, especially large wrappers, 20 years ago!

That's nothing new at all. Large quality wrapper leaf is a permanent issue, has always been. As you can imagine, producing a large, flawless wrapper is always highly demanding, even under the best conditions. There have been not all too recent times, when it was hard to come by DCs. We are spoiled. Had always been rather limited in supply due to the large wrapper leaves necessary for making them. And they were pricy, too. With them getting more and more out of fashion, they are currently among the best value for money....

[cigcars]

Sr. Presidente`, if it's not too far fetched a query here - what do you think about the possibility of acquiring for sale to us some ordinary "peso" cigars made mostly for the Cuban populace?  One of the forum members sent some to me some time back and I was really, really impressed with how tasty they were!  I'm sure those must be in plenteous supply if our HSA heads are going to be sparse in their dissemination of the primary brands to us - that maybe we can be supplied with all Habano tobacco that is just a bit below Jose`L. Piedras, Troyas, Belindas, and so on, but that is still very enjoyable. Just a thought. I'D bite!!  

[DRed409]

Blame it on the cucumbers...

http://www.wsj.com/articles/smoked-cubas-cigar-industry-isnt-ready-for-its-american-moment-1463767535

i found this article a while back, ignore the talk of the US embargo and look at the overall agricultural picture in Cuba right now. It's difficult to harvest what isn't planted.