How would the end of the cuban embargo affect cuban cigar prices and market?


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What do you think about it? It would open a new market of nearly 300 million people to sell cigars. Is the cuban cigar industry or even any industry capable to satisfy such a huge increase in demand ? Theory says that if demand increases and offer stays the same or doesn't pair the demand, prices would get higher.

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I think it would be the end of the Cuban Puro. Most of the big players in tobacco would come in and buy all of the high quality tobacco

Money talks and the famers of Cuba need the money

We can only hope Habanos makes it hard to export raw tobacco

Just my thoughts

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The end of the embargo wouldn't necessarily mean the end of Cuban State monopolies. They are not the same thing.

Tabacuba and Habanos wouldn't disappear overnight.

I've heard more than once, from Cubans, saying that the end of the embargo would be also, almost instantaneously, the end of the Castro/Socialist regimen, and it makes sense. It would be very hard for the regimen to control the high and sudden influx of a new culture, tourism, products, information, news, etc. It would be a shock of information for a society that has been very controlled in the last 50 years. In Cuba the embargo is seen by many people as an excuse for the Castro government to establish limits on their people.

Considering that, I do think that this would be, as stated by thebigk, the end of the Cuban Puro as we know it today.

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What do you think about it? It would open a new market of nearly 300 million people to sell cigars. Is the cuban cigar industry or even any industry capable to satisfy such a huge increase in demand ? Theory says that if demand increases and offer stays the same or doesn't pair the demand, prices would get higher.

How would the embargo ending make it possible for 300 million people to sell cigars? The US population is around 300 million. How many of those do you believe are cigar smokers. Statistics estimate not many. It would simply give the US government another product to impose onerous taxes on. Those cigars smokers in the US who want to smoke Cuban, do already thanks to the internet. There are many cigar lovers who would simply stick to smoking their Dominican,Nicaraguan and Honduran brands anyway.
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Fakes would be everywhere.Prices would skyrocket,quality would plummet.A whole new US market would absorb everything Cuba could produce.What would become of all the current vendors?Would Cuba abandon them?Would the world market just accept the scarcity that would ensue from the US opening up?

I personally am totally satisfied with the status quo..................

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How would the embargo ending make it possible for 300 million people to sell cigars? The US population is around 300 million. How many of those do you believe are cigar smokers. Statistics estimate not many. It would simply give the US government another product to impose onerous taxes on. Those cigars smokers in the US who want to smoke Cuban, do already thanks to the internet. There are many cigar lovers who would simply stick to smoking their Dominican,Nicaraguan and Honduran brands anyway.

I meant the size of the whole market. 300+ million customers. Clearly only a fraction of that are Cigar smokers, but still makes it the biggest market of cigar smokers in the world, which is currently closed to Cuba.

As far as I know and even when they can get Cigar Cubans on Internet, that's still illegal... so no, the vast majority of americans don't get cuban cigars because it's illegal. Only a very small fraction get them through Internet, and taking the risks of doing an illegal activity.

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I've heard more than once, from Cubans, saying that the end of the embargo would be also, almost instantaneously, the end of the Castro/Socialist regimen, and it makes sense. It would be very hard for the regimen to control the high and sudden influx of a new culture, tourism, products, information, news, etc. It would be a shock of information for a society that has been very controlled in the last 50 years. In Cuba the embargo is seen by many people as an excuse for the Castro government to establish limits on their people.

Considering that, I do think that this would be, as stated by thebigk, the end of the Cuban Puro as we know it today.

Without doubt the embargo has helped the Castros hold on to power. It has been blamed by the government for most of its failings. But Imperial Tobacco and Altadis will still fight tooth and nail, through Habanos, to hold on to their tobacco.

You say it will be "the end of the Cuban puro as we know it". Why would any company stop producing something for which already millions of Americans are willing to break the law to obtain?

Forbidden fruit? Outside the US, Cuban cigars make up 90% of premium cigar sales.

For any tobacco company entering the Cuban tobacco market in future, I cannot see why they would not make a product (a cuban puro) that already enjoys huge demand.

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But Imperial Tobacco and Altadis will still fight tooth and nail, through Habanos, to hold on to their tobacco.

No doubt - I especially imagine that Imperial would be less than thrilled about how it might affect their investment in Habanos. Though I don't really give it much thought, I wonder if Altadis U.S. would become the national distributor, deciding who might get allocation, etc.

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The end of the embargo wouldn't necessarily mean the end of Cuban State monopolies. They are not the same thing.

Tabacuba and Habanos wouldn't disappear overnight.

x2

The embargo is a trade issue, if it goes it doesn't mean political changes, if anything it may mean the regime is stronger due to the increased revenue.

The Cuban regime has outlasted 11 (and counting) US presidents, it would be silly to underestimate it. Remember the trillion dollar bill in The Simpsons? :D

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I have always feared such a day. I hope and pray that it lasts for 50 more years!

Many of you have already said it, the quality will plummet as output has to increase unless habanos can increase the work force and grow larger quantities of quality tobacco.

Let's hope that this day never comes! As someone mentioned, those Americans who love Cuban know how to get it! No one has to feel sorry for them :).

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Without doubt the embargo has helped the Castros hold on to power. It has been blamed by the government for most of its failings. But Imperial Tobacco and Altadis will still fight tooth and nail, through Habanos, to hold on to their tobacco.

You say it will be "the end of the Cuban puro as we know it". Why would any company stop producing something for which already millions of Americans are willing to break the law to obtain?

Forbidden fruit? Outside the US, Cuban cigars make up 90% of premium cigar sales.

For any tobacco company entering the Cuban tobacco market in future, I cannot see why they would not make a product (a cuban puro) that already enjoys huge demand.

I'm not saying companies would stop producing cuban puros because of the end of the embargo. I'm saying it would be very difficult for them to keep the same quality standards when you suddenly have access to the biggest market of customers on earth demanding your products. How do you prepare for that? On the other side, how do you keep producing the same products when the society that builds them changes? The people that has been producing cuban cigars is people who was born, raised, and getting old within the same regimen, with basically the same limits. And those people is going to change after the end of the embargo. The production of cuban cigars as we know it today is only possible in Cuba. And the Cuba after the end of the embargo and after the end of the regimen WILL BE a very different Cuba as we know it today. I'm guessing here that the quality of the cuban cigar is not only due to the naturally good cuban tobacco, but also due to many factors including the current status of Cuba.

It's 2 factors that makes very difficult for any industry or company to hold on while keeping the same quality standard of their products or the same product prices.

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as long as I can still get them in the US I hope the embargo doesn't end however I'd like to see the travel restrictions loosened as it is one of my dreams to vacation to Cuba and I'd rather not have to travel there illegally.

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I'm not saying companies would stop producing cuban puros because of the end of the embargo. I'm saying it would be very difficult for them to keep the same quality standards when you suddenly have access to the biggest market of customers on earth demanding your products. How do you prepare for that? On the other side, how do you keep producing the same products when the society that builds them changes?

There's only one Cuban cigar company that supplies the world markets. Habanos SA.

The people that has been producing cuban cigars is people who was born, raised, and getting old within the same regimen, with basically the same limits. And those people is going to change after the end of the embargo. The production of cuban cigars as we know it today is only possible in Cuba.

Cuban cigars have been around a lot longer than the Cuban revolution, Cuba as we know it today.

Cuba in the past has supplied the US market, and probably in an era when even more people smoked cigars.. It's only since Kennedy signed the embargo that it hasn't.

And the Cuba after the end of the embargo and after the end of the regimen WILL BE a very different Cuba as we know it today.

Just like Cuba was a very different Cuba pre revolution/embargo, They still made some mighty fine cigars. thumbsup.gif

I do think there would be an 'adjustment' period, of course. And the QC might go to pot for a while but they'd bounce back.

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Fakes would be everywhere.Prices would skyrocket,quality would plummet.A whole new US market would absorb everything Cuba could produce.What would become of all the current vendors?Would Cuba abandon them?Would the world market just accept the scarcity that would ensue from the US opening up?

I personally am totally satisfied with the status quo..................

*sigh* I'm afraid your observations are indeed spot on mellow.png...

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as long as I can still get them in the US I hope the embargo doesn't end however I'd like to see the travel restrictions loosened as it is one of my dreams to vacation to Cuba and I'd rather not have to travel there illegally.

*Amen*

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The way that I see things, Not much will change,The ones that smoke Cubans ,do already(A lot of Americans don't like them anyway).Going to Cuba will not be against the law.

Imperial & Altadis are already handleing Habanos S.A. and all the rights.The only thing left Is a Mc Do and a Starbuck at ever cornner of Cuba.

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The only thing left Is a Mc Do and a Starbuck at ever cornner of Cuba.

that, sadly, is the most depressing thing I've read all day....

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Personally, I do not think all the fear mongering will come to pass if the embargo is lifted. In the short term there may be a reduction in global availability as the US market's stock is built up, but that won't have a huge impact in the long term. Cuban cigars aren't really the forbidden fruit, as you can get them with a little bit of effort.

The US market may be new business in terms of direct sales, but it is already supplied through international vendors. The in flux of new consumers will only be in the beginning once the embargo is lifted, but that will then taper off and overall demand will stabilise.

Even gaining a new market as large as the US, the powers that be will not want to impact current sales in Europe and China. And besides, the US is already well supplied by other cigars companies that cater specifically to the US taste and size preference.

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There are plenty of people in the US that don't get Cubans because they are illegal. Sure if you do some minimal research you can find them but most don't or don't want to take the small risk. If it became legal, demand would skyrocket, quality would go down on most and the premiums price would go through the roof. Good news is the current stock you have would be worth a lot :)

I think the large boost would be temporary eventually it would stabilize but can't see the quality being better or price being the same or better. The growers in Nic and Honduras would hate it!

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It seems to me that the benefits to the Cuban people of freeing up trade with the US should trump any concerns about the unknown effects on the global cigar market.

Of course I would like cigars to be as good as possible and as inexpensive as possible, but I would like much more for Cubans to live in a more prosperous economy, and the idea of anyone preferring the former to the latter is a bit disturbing to me.

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