Andorran tobacconists sell fewer Havana cigars

[El Presidente]

https://laciutat.cat/laciutatandorra/estancs-andorrans-venta-menys-cigars-havans#

It is nice to have a bogey man. Those damn Chinese 

No mention of:

• lack of rollers/50% of seats empty
• Lack of cash/few tourists
• the mere fact that Cuba is an economic and social basketcase right now.
• The fact that the warehouse in Havana is holding no reserves.
• The fact that Andorran and Spanish retailers were doing very nicely out of Asian sales (front and back). 

 

Andorran tobacconists sell fewer Havana cigars

The rise of this product in Asian markets, especially in China, has reduced its arrival in the Principality and the surrounding countries.

 

 

Andorran  cavas  specializing in cigars have long noticed a change in trend. Downward, especially in terms of supply. If even before the pandemic all kinds of Cohiba, Trinidad, Montecristo or Partagás cigars could be found, to give a few examples among many others, today it is difficult to obtain according to what references.

Andorra has been a pilgrimage point for lovers of this type of product for many decades, but  China's entry into the cigar market has changed the rules of the game . The rise in the Chinese market, in addition to causing shortages, also explains the escalation of prices, which in some references has tripled.

 

All this responds to the fashion that is registered in Asia, where cigars are synonymous with luxury and socio-economic status. A phenomenon similar to that recorded in Europe about a century ago. Smoking a havana  then symbolized economic power in the old continent, and now it is in countries like China, where intermediaries and speculators acquire and hoard large batches of cigars to resell in their country.

 

In 2019, the Asian giant ranked as the world's largest consumer of cigars, ending the almost privileged relationship that Spain and some countries such as Andorra had when importing cigars . This reality has meant that havans are beginning to become scarce in most tobacconists, also in those in the Principality, where when a reference is finished more and more often it is not known when the next order will arrive.

 

According to data from Habanos SA, the demand for cigars has increased by 50% in Asia in just one luster. Although Europe maintains a market share of 60%, it is declining year after year. The increase in Chinese demand has its greatest impact on some of the best-known brands such as Cohiba and Trinidad, devised by Fidel Castro in the 1960s for the exclusive consumption of friendly foreign leaders.

[La_Tigre]

Believe that’s a store on the French side…and if they’ve got that actual supply they are doing leaps better than most cavas. Although, that store did have some sus storage conditions on the one visit made there. Had to walk away from a box of Connie A from release year upon inspection. 

[JustDave]

For someone who is new to CC, what's the relationship between Andorra and CC or Cigars in general?

[SirVantes]

Complete this sentence: Live by _____, die by ______ 

A. the sword

B. capitalist principles

C. your sole source of product 

D. being happy with a globalised economy when the dollars come to you, but not when they go elsewhere 

[La_Tigre]

30 minutes ago, JustDave said:

For someone who is new to CC, what's the relationship between Andorra and CC or Cigars in general?

The best prices duty free outside of Cuba before the price changes. 

[JustDave]

3 minutes ago, La_Tigre said:

The best prices duty free outside of Cuba before the price changes. 

thanks for the context

[Corylax18]

5 hours ago, El Presidente said:

It is nice to have a bogey man. Those damn Chinese 

Bogey Man? By definition, bogey men are fake. 

Hong Kong(really just China now) Firm purchases Half of HSA. Less than 2 years later, all prices are standardized to match the HK market. That Actually Happened, its not a fake dooms day scenario.

We've all seen the busloads of Chinese business men pouring into LCDH's in Havana and buying up very box of Cohiba and moving on to the next one. I suspect this will be the main source of future purchases on the island after the current hikes. It certainly wont be fed by educated cigar tourists anymore. This same phenomenon happens at LCDHs around the world. Again, not fake, a real thing. 

I'm not saying the Chinese/HK are the Soul cause of the current situation, but they are a very large, very Real part of it. Supply issues aside, the New owners of HSA clearly see a demand floor within their own country, at their already established prices. It appears they don't believe they even need cuban cigar smokers in the rest of the world and the moves they're making are actively pushing forward that reality. 

[JohnnyO]

When Freddy Kruger goes to bed at night, he checks under his bed to make sure that the Chinese cigar flippers aren't there. John

[SigmundChurchill]

Meanwhile, on the other side of Spain, the only full box I could find for sale was a box of D4s in one of the Barcelona shops.  
 

Ibiza was no better.  I took a pic of the humidor in the Duty Free shop in Ibiza.  Here it is in all it’s glory…

Im not even going to waste my time here on Mallorca.

[Islandboy]

So, one luster = 5 years....good to know. Seems like a 50% increase in demand in 5 years may not be the smoking gun it’s meant to be. Wonder what the increase in US demand was in the same luster?

That said, I guess the increase in Chinese sales would have been larger if supply was keeping up with demand. 

[BrightonCorgi]

Down the road, would you feel comfortable buying these hoarded cigars from a Chinese website?  They'll have to do a lot of convincing the cigars are authentic.

[El Presidente]

5 hours ago, Corylax18 said:

. Supply issues aside,

1. There is no putting "supply issues aside"  The supply train is broken/shattered. 

2. My understanding is that the Chinese 1/2 of HSA had minimal input in this direction.  The pinning of the price to the highest market by HSA was an effort to raise revenue and stop arbitrage dead. You may have different information. Right now all I see is supposition. 

3. The Chinese market was largely being fed by cheap european sources. It has been the case for years. Those "Chinese flippers" are largely European/US sellers. 

4; I also saw busloads of "white" tourists flooding LDCH in Havana. I never heard a peep from anyone. 

4. 

noun: bogey-man

1. an imaginary evil spirit or being, used to frighten children.

   "with the blankets pulled over our heads to keep out the bogeyman"

    

    

   What I see is a lot of race mongering.   Part fact, plenty of fiction. 

[Hammer Smokin']

how can there be "US" sellers when the product is illegal in the US? So the US is not only importing illegal products (with their eyes closed) they are also exporting the same illegal products? 

amazing that the easiest and cheapest country to import/export cuban cigars is the country that cuban cigars are apparently illegal in. 

[El Presidente]

Just now, Hammer Smokin' said:

how can there be "US" sellers when the product is illegal in the US? So the US is not only importing illegal products (with their eyes closed) they are also exporting the same illegal products? 

amazing that the easiest and cheapest country to import/export cuban cigars is the country that cuban cigars are apparently illegal in. 

Euro sellers are the bulk sellers via grey. 

US and Euro private sellers (single box/part collections/full collections) have been going great for years. Nothing wrong with that. 

 

[Hammer Smokin']

well technically, the whole illegal thing would be wrong. 

but apparently that is only in theory, not in practice. 

[El Presidente]

2 minutes ago, Hammer Smokin' said:

well technically, the whole illegal thing would be wrong. 

but apparently that is only in theory, not in practice. 

Generally, selling cigars to China (outside of the US) is perfectly legal for both the seller and the chinese buyer as long as declarations are properly made. 

[BoliDan]

At these prices I should start flipping myself. Shoot. I could use a boat.

[Hammer Smokin']

Sorry Prez, my comment was specifically referring to your comment regarding the US sellers.  It was the "nothing wrong with that". 

 

US and Euro private sellers (single box/part collections/full collections) have been going great for years. Nothing wrong with that. 

[LordAnubis]

Pretty real boogey man i think. "A guy jsut orderd 87 box of Habaneros" .. is stories i hear from retailers regarding chinese customers. One one retailer there's a disclaimer that says that chinese buyers must restrict pruchasing lower than $5000 and less than 8 boxes... pretty clear whats going on really. It's not new, it's been going on for a few years now. I'm waiting for the ball to drop.... for a massive cache of cigars to go to sale at current inflated prices as the biggest "day trade" in history.

The american secondary market is the most fascinating to see. Even at current prices, with a 10% markup, stuff is selling out super quick in the channels. Easiest money anyone could ever make in that region.

[El Presidente]

27 minutes ago, LordAnubis said:

Pretty real boogey man i think. guy"A jsut orderd 87 box of Habaneros" .. is stories i hear from retailers regarding chinese customers. One one retailer there's a disclaimer that says that chinese buyers must restrict pruchasing lower than $5000 and less than 8 boxes... pretty clear whats going on really. It's not new, it's been going on for a few years now. I'm waiting for the ball to drop.... for a massive cache of cigars to go to sale at current inflated prices as the biggest "day trade" in history.

The american secondary market is the most fascinating to see. Even at current prices, with a 10% markup, stuff is selling out super quick in the channels. Easiest money anyone could ever make in that region.

They are huge buyers Mus. No one disagrees. Second only to US buyers. 

You should know full well. Retailers are full of it 

"A jsut orderd 87 box of Habaneros " .. is stories i hear from retailers regarding chinese customers.

I will call Bull**** on that one. not Cohiba, not Trinidad, not happerning. 

[Corylax18]

16 hours ago, El Presidente said:

4; I also saw busloads of "white" tourists flooding LDCH in Havana. I never heard a peep from anyone. 

I've never seen it, but that doesn't mean its never happened before. 

16 hours ago, El Presidente said:

2. My understanding is that the Chinese 1/2 of HSA had minimal input in this direction.  The pinning of the price to the highest market by HSA was an effort to raise revenue and stop arbitrage dead. You may have different information. Right now all I see is supposition. 

Right.....  Quite the coincidence though, huh? Seriously Rob? After 20 years of tiny, yearly bumps, they just got this brilliant idea, completely out of the blue? If you really believe the Actual business people had nothing to do with the this Business decision, I have a bridge you might be interested in buying....

It sounds to me like someone is already trying to find a scapegoat. 

16 hours ago, El Presidente said:

3. The Chinese market was largely being fed by cheap european sources. It has been the case for years. Those "Chinese flippers" are largely European/US sellers. 

OK? The US market was Largely fed by the same cheap European vendors, again, for nearly 20 years now. With ZERO upward affect on world wide pricing. None. Now a "middle class" develops in China, A Chinese firm buys the distribution arm, prices sky rocket, and its all the US buyers fault? That's Quite a stretch. The system worked well for everyone, for a long time, it doesn't seem to work well now for anyone who isn't a seller. 

16 hours ago, El Presidente said:

1. There is no putting "supply issues aside"  The supply train is broken/shattered. 

Supply has barely met or not met demand for years now, I really don't think the drop in production is nearly as drastic as people are making it out to be. It was never all that high to begin with. Add into it the absolute Boom in cigar consumption in the last two years. I think that Very rapid (and honestly brief) spike in demand made things look a lot worse. There is obviously work that needs to be done, but this isn't going to do it. Demand WILL be waning over the next 1-5 years, we can debate how much, but not if. If I believed one dime of the new revenues would be fed back into the business to solve this problems, I might feel differently. But it wont, it will keep getting worse as people continue getting paid nothing to work in dilapidated factories. (just like in China, where the "communist" overlords collect the real money) Ill check for new suicide nets at the Havana Factories next week. 

16 hours ago, El Presidente said:

What I see is a lot of race mongering.   Part fact, plenty of fiction. 

Easy on Crying Racism, Nancy. I've mentioned earlier it seems like you're fighting a nasty case of Stockholm syndrome right now and I get it. But, don't let this be your Chinatown Moment. Remember, Coronavirus was real, and it DID come from China. Whatever you want to call the current bullshit, its real too, and it came from the same place. 

[Puros Y Vino]

16 hours ago, Hammer Smokin' said:

how can there be "US" sellers when the product is illegal in the US? So the US is not only importing illegal products (with their eyes closed) they are also exporting the same illegal products? 

amazing that the easiest and cheapest country to import/export cuban cigars is the country that cuban cigars are apparently illegal in. 

Lots of US citizens make their way done several times a year, as do Canadians, for the sole purpose of buying to flip.  Despite all the measures the US has against Cuba, hassling the majority of travelers on their cigar and rum purchases isn't one of them.

[El Presidente]

11 hours ago, Corylax18 said:

 

Easy on Crying Racism, Nancy. I've mentioned earlier it seems like you're fighting a nasty case of Stockholm syndrome right now and I get it. But, don't let this be your Chinatown Moment. Remember, Coronavirus was real, and it DID come from China. Whatever you want to call the current bullshit, its real too, and it came from the same place. 

Agree to disagree. 

Lucky you missed the incessant bus tours from "white" cruise ships decending on the LCDH Divans! Not a peep from anyone. 

You seem to be confusing causation with correlation. 

We both know and respect a guy who has just come back this week from talking to approximately 40 Spanish retailers. 

When he was there in Spain in November, to retailers  it was all about "Blame the Chinese".  Fast forward to July 2022 and  the retailers are all blaming PRODUCTION. 

Why? Because it can't be hidden any longer. Retailers/distributors have had access to Havana since January/February  2022 and are seeing the empty warehouse, the empty benches and the complete mess for themselves. 

PCC and Infifon (Asia and China distributors) have no stockpile of cigars. They are in the same postion as Tabacalera, 5th or H&F. 

For anyone following the news, you would know that the HSA JV partners have their own challenges with a Director being arrested in China in December last year. 

Cheap Euro stock to the US traditionally went out by the box/online.  The problem with cheap Euro stock to China wasn't the "walk in" buyer. It is the cheap stock that  went out by the goods pallet via professional operations. Very different operations. 

The Chinese market has grown to rival the  US.  This has happened. in the past 10 years. 

Production is down to 30% of 10 years ago. 

SUPPLY/PRODUCTION cannot meet DEMAND and will not be in a position to do so for many years to come, if ever. 

There is no need to look for a bogeyman. What is going on is primarily a response to the structural change in the market. 

Again, agree to disagree.

[bates40]

With prices in Cuba and elsewhere going insane I have recently been dreaming of a trip to Andorra to get ahold of some old stock at potentially good (not the new) prices. Is this dream a reality?

[El Presidente]

11 minutes ago, bates40 said:

With prices in Cuba and elsewhere going insane I have recently been dreaming of a trip to Andorra to get ahold of some old stock at potentially good (not the new) prices. Is this dream a reality?

Unfortunately...around 5 years too late for aged finds.