So here we are. Where to for the Cuban Cigar Industry?

[RDB]

The really big unknown for me is: what has happened to demand? In the longer term it’s not HSA that sets prices, it’s the interaction of supply and demand.
 

It’s only a few years since I was passing on Winnies, choosing which box of Lanceros to buy, turning down MdO#4 etc. Some things were always rarer than others, but it wasn’t remotely like today. So at that point supply and demand must have been roughly in line.

Presumably supply can recover. I mean for goodness sake, they have even more incentive to sort it out now! 
 

Let’s assume for a minute that Cohiba is now a different kind of thing. Let’s leave Trinidad aside for a minute too. What has happened to demand for the regular production from global brand marcas like Monte, Partagas, Romeo etc?

[Fugu]

23 hours ago, Puros Y Vino said:

On a personal note, my days of buying Cohiba and Trinidad are pretty much done.  And rather than explore NC's,  I'd prefer to sample more of the "cheaper" CC's.  There are already several Quinteros that I enjoy.  Maybe this is time to explore more RG, JLP, LFDC, Fonseca, etc.  Ever since I started smoking, I've been pretty aggressive with my buying and can comfortably smoke from my inventory for years to come without making a single purchase from this day forward.

Pretty much sums it up for me. Trini and Cohiba purchases will be a thing of the past. While I got enough stock to draw from - from a plain smoker’s perspective - these have always been just another ‘marca’ for me, bringing change to the rotation. Nothing less, nothing more. Can do without from here on. (But will miss the Fundie more than the Lance). It’s not just a question of being able to afford for me, it is a question of value. Can do better with that money. Leaving them to those with unlimited means. Though it will become tricky smoking your own aged stock while tuning out how much money you’re burning.

But truly sorry for the Reyes, which have been a go-to, a regular staple (these tasty little morsels).

No NC switching for me.

Can draw a lot of enjoyment from JLP and Quintero.

So perhaps HSA is doing it right. They aren’t losing me as a customer, I’ll just shift my portfolio. And there will still be enough suckers as it seems. I don’t even see difficulties for B&Ms in Europe through this move, since for a couple of years now, non-locals are invading even the tiniest shop in the remotest town to rid them of Cohiba and specials.

But there is always a risk of over-stretching and in putting all one’s eggs in one basket.

[SCgarman]

10 hours ago, HopeUgood said:

Can I ask how long your current stash will last your smoking a couple of cigars a week?  My plan is similar but to add about 3-4 boxes a year of particular cigars (unless prices keep climbing at the current rates). 

More than 2 years of inventory but likely less than 5. 

[Tstew75]

Will never defect to NCs, my hook was set on CCs from the beginning.

RE: Cohiba, I won't be buying any & will smoke thru most over the next 10 years. Trini, same thing..except I will return to purchasing when this brand crashes in like 3 years.

All other marcas are just fine for me, i dont have an issue with the pricing & will continue to sock boxes away for the future.

[rcarlson]

I'm rooting for the move on Cohiba and Trini to produce a net loss for HSA.  Forced scarcity while there's a global economic pinch on regular consumers?  Head scratching. 

It may be wishful thinking, but what if we see that Cohiba and Trini knockoffs with a different band breach the span?  Suckers can buy the bands and get what they want and the rest of us get what we want with a substitute.   

I'm gonna do my part by pissing and moaning until cigar equity is realized.  This aggression cannot stand, man.       

[Rhinoww]

18 minutes ago, rcarlson said:

.   

I'm gonna do my part by pissing and moaning until cigar equity is realized.  This aggression cannot stand, man.       

Amen Brother. 
 

I have been preparing for Armageddon and unfortunately it has arrived. And I don’t feel properly prepared even w plenty on hand. So much for having to allocate my cigar collection in my will. Now each premium stick I smoke will come with a twing of remorse over cost and that I won’t likely replace them w another box.  Yes, I will buy here and there  those purchases will be very strategic for me For the next few years as opposed to the “why not get a box” approach for everything but Cohiba for nearly the last three years  

I’m still pissed. Give me some time

 

[Bijan]

2 hours ago, rcarlson said:

Forced scarcity while there's a global economic pinch on regular consumers?  Head scratching. 

Is it?

The world managed to double the prices on such gross necessities as food, gas and housing.

Is it really head scratching that Cohiba cigars have doubled in price?

[Homer]

11 minutes ago, Bijan said:

Is it?

The world managed to double the prices on such gross necessities as food, gas and housing.

Is it really head scratching that Cohiba cigars have doubled in price?

Salaries has not been rising at least not in Europe.

[Bijan]

5 minutes ago, Homer said:

Salaries has not been rising at least not in Europe.

Salaries have not been rising that much in north America either and certainly haven't doubled.

My point is that if necessary and basic goods such as food, fuel and shelter double, I am not shocked if luxury goods rise even higher.

[rcarlson]

26 minutes ago, Bijan said:

Is it?

The world managed to double the prices on such gross necessities as food, gas and housing.

Is it really head scratching that Cohiba cigars have doubled in price?

I don't follow.  

[Bijan]

14 minutes ago, rcarlson said:

I don't follow.  

Either the cost of labour has gone up or the value of money has gone down. Likely both at the same time.

That should be reflected in the price of basically everything, except some unusual goods like electronics that get cheaper over time.

Luxuries like CCs and super luxuries like Cohibas I expect to increase even more as almost all other such goods have done (one everyone keeps mentioning is the case of watches like Rolex, etc.). But at a minimum I am not shocked.

[SCgarman]

1 hour ago, Bijan said:

Is it?

The world managed to double the prices on such gross necessities as food, gas and housing.

Is it really head scratching that Cohiba cigars have doubled in price?

Food, energy and housing are absolute necessities in life. Cigars are a want we enjoy, not a need to sustain life. My life would still be fine without them, as I'm sure many others would be. 

[Bijan]

11 minutes ago, SCgarman said:

Food, energy and housing are absolute necessities in life. Cigars are a want we enjoy, not a need to sustain life. My life would still be fine without them, as I'm sure many others would be. 

For sure. I still don't see what has to do with prices though.

Edit: for a similar comparison the more luxurious food (tenderloin, steak, etc. seems to have risen more than basic food).

[DaBoot]

With the supply they are able to produce, the price hike is on par with sales to main markets at prices people will pay.  For how long, who knows, that goes for anything. 
 I personally don’t want to pay wholesale box price of 15$ robusto, most NC is under 10$ wholesale/online . I’m not talking opus or 1926 or davidoff or Ashton. They are great premium NC cigars and charge 20$ + a stick. I’d rather have a D4 or Connie A , every time!!

we were just lucky while it lasted. 
not complaining as most goods/items are about equal as a price increase percentage 

[rcarlson]

1 hour ago, Bijan said:

Either the cost of labour has gone up or the value of money has gone down. Likely both at the same time.

That should be reflected in the price of basically everything, except some unusual goods like electronics that get cheaper over time.

Luxuries like CCs and super luxuries like Cohibas I expect to increase even more as almost all other such goods have done (one everyone keeps mentioning is the case of watches like Rolex, etc.). But at a minimum I am not shocked.

I'm talking about the strategy of deliberately pricing two brands out of the broader market, not that the price went up.  We're talking 200-300% increases (or more) to move those two into the ultra premium tier with no change in the product.    

And I hope that strategy fails.   

[Bijan]

8 minutes ago, rcarlson said:

I'm talking about the strategy of deliberately pricing two brands out of the broader market, not that the price went up.  We're talking 200-300% increases (or more) to move those two into the ultra premium tier with no change in the product.    

And I hope that strategy fails.   

I hope it fails too.

But right now most merchants have 1/4 or less of Marcas in stock (not even vitolas, but actual Marcas).

Of the 3 or 4 major internet retailers one doesn't have any Bolivar in stock, one has no upmanm, etc.

And I'm pretty sure that part is not artificial.

We also know that Behike and Cohiba have been going from purchase to bond Roberts directly the past 6 months to a year(they got rid of the aging requirements). So again it wasn't just habanos move and it wasn't artificial scarcity.

I hope supply goes back to normal and prices stabilize. But I have never smoked a Behike and I never expected to. Slowly but steadily i guess more CCs are going to move into that category.

[rcarlson]

1 hour ago, Bijan said:

I hope it fails too.

But right now most merchants have 1/4 or less of Marcas in stock (not even vitolas, but actual Marcas).

Of the 3 or 4 major internet retailers one doesn't have any Bolivar in stock, one has no upmanm, etc.

And I'm pretty sure that part is not artificial.

We also know that Behike and Cohiba have been going from purchase to bond Roberts directly the past 6 months to a year(they got rid of the aging requirements). So again it wasn't just habanos move and it wasn't artificial scarcity.

I hope supply goes back to normal and prices stabilize. But I have never smoked a Behike and I never expected to. Slowly but steadily i guess more CCs are going to move into that category.

Damn it Bijan!  Are you with us or against us?  This blog ain't gonna piss and moan itself.  

I know you and Frank are from a communist country, but you're among friends.  No need for ovine passivity here.

As our greatest living president Ben Franklin said:  "lead, follow or get out of the hell out of the way."

Take it to the streets my brother!

  

[Bijan]

2 minutes ago, rcarlson said:

I know you and Frank are from a communist country, but you're among friends.  No need for ovine passivity here.

Yeah that's where I'm coming from. We might be socialist/communist over here, but we can still get serious traction for solving bread and butter issues.

But anything to do with luxuries is a lost cause. (As our tobacco taxes make clear) Trying to get solidarity amongst the people who were buying $1,000 boxes of Siglo VI and Esplendidos... to lower prices so that the working man can smoke Cohibas... Yeah not going to happen...

As for pissing and moaning, that's one of the core activities of our noble hobby. At least since the turn of the last century.

But I'm happy with it at previous levels, I don't need to see it go into overdrive.

[MossybackR]

21 hours ago, SCgarman said:

love Monte4 but at $300usd/box? F it. I'm outta the game. I'll burn my inventory a couple a week and when they're gone I'm done. FTW!

The recent 24:24 has Monte 4 at $253

[SCgarman]

32 minutes ago, MossybackR said:

The recent 24:24 has Monte 4 at $253

Give it a few more weeks.......

 

4 hours ago, Bijan said:

For sure. I still don't see what has to do with prices though.

Edit: for a similar comparison the more luxurious food (tenderloin, steak, etc. seems to have risen more than basic food).

Tenderloin steak was never a cheap food here in the US, ever. More expensive now, yes but still affordable as a once in awhile treat. The greenie weenies would be happy to have cows completely eradicated from the earth. Don't you know their flatulence destroys the atmosphere? Never mind the 8 billion humans that all pass methane out the backside. 🤣

[MossybackR]

19 minutes ago, SCgarman said:

Give it a few more weeks..

Well, the German list that we saw last week, listed the M4 at $270. We’ll see.

[Bijan]

30 minutes ago, SCgarman said:

Never mind the 8 billion humans that all pass methane out the backside. 🤣

Quick eco tip: "Terminate" two random strangers in a dark alley and you now have a negative carbon footprint 🤣

[Fugu]

9 hours ago, SCgarman said:

Don't you know their flatulence destroys the atmosphere?

It’s them belching not their farting that causes the problems. Not that it would matter which/in the end anyway ... Just to contribute to the argricultural excursus. 🤓 😂

[HawkI84]

On 6/4/2022 at 3:59 AM, RDB said:

The really big unknown for me is: what has happened to demand? In the longer term it’s not HSA that sets prices, it’s the interaction of supply and demand.
 

It’s only a few years since I was passing on Winnies, choosing which box of Lanceros to buy, turning down MdO#4 etc. Some things were always rarer than others, but it wasn’t remotely like today. So at that point supply and demand must have been roughly in line.

Presumably supply can recover. I mean for goodness sake, they have even more incentive to sort it out now! 
 

Let’s assume for a minute that Cohiba is now a different kind of thing. Let’s leave Trinidad aside for a minute too. What has happened to demand for the regular production from global brand marcas like Monte, Partagas, Romeo etc?

There's a ton of anecdotal evidence that says demand in one country has exploded (all the stories about tourists, a different website has a set of guidelines posted addressing just how much those customers can order, etc), so now HSA has set pricing to try to mimic what cigars go for in that country.

[phantomwhiff]

On 6/3/2022 at 10:57 PM, PigFish said:

Totally disagree with you mate.

I cannot speak for others here, but there are many people who say enough is enough regardless of who makes the product. Capitalism through completion keeps most industries in check around my country. We have monopolies still certainly... government for one, media and some high tech.

When the airlines price themselves (or are priced by market forces) above the threshold of pain, people stop flying. When beef is too high, people move to chicken and pork... We do the same here to our capitalism comrades all the time.

Me, I am rooting for Tabacuba to fail. I have been for a decade. I was way... way... out in front of this pack. They have been destroying the traditional concept of the cigar, cigar smoking, smoking evolution for decades now. I hope they have to pay the piper! I am glad some people are pissed! I hope more get there.

Look, I do not want this to go awry... but your analogy is power companies!!! At least 50% of the population everywhere knew that the greens were going to destroy the energy sector as we know it, sooner or later. That is not capitalism. That is a minority ruling the energy sector via fiat. And for those who voted for the fools running the show... you, me, we... get what we deserve.

Go to one of our gas pumps and see who is raping the end user. It is not the driller or the refiner. It is those in the capital domed buildings collecting the taxes. While the refiner makes a few cents a gallon, in my state, the government (collectively) is taking a buck or more! ... and the roads still suck... and the government still wants more money to fix them!

Cuba has been in a sweet spot for the blame game for decades now. A lot on this forum over the years. People have been giving them a pass and protecting them (typically our resident socialists) for years and years. Blame America...  blame the embargo... I have read and seen it all. Their economic and political system is a shambles. That is because it is build on the ideas of losers, thugs and charity cases. 

 

This is likely going to lose everyone, but I will pitch it. Look at what is happening with the CC. You happy? Look at what your dependence on a communist country with socialist/communist leadership has gotten you. F'd.

Now look abroad. What has Europe gotten by being lead by the greens... and other socialist groups/philosophies. Dependent on Russia for oil (another good reliable communist run country). And what do they always do with the money.... ? Expand the empire!

Look at America... who runs it currently? The greens and other socialists... Where has it gotten us? Same boat. I paid $6.99 a gallon for fuel in the Peoplez Republik of Kalifornia (the capital by the way...) yesterday.

A plainer lesson on capitalism vs. socialism right down to your favorite hobby. One needs to be blind not to see the correlation.

Cheers! -R

The thing is, historical and extant communist countries were/are not 'green' at all. That agenda is entirely pushed by the elites of the 'capitalist' West. You would say of course that it is the work of 'socialists' in the West but these people bear little relation to the project of communism as it is understood by actual communist countries. Russia is not a communist country, this isn't the cold war.

You're stuck in an outdated libertarian understanding of what 'capitalism' and 'socialism' are. There are no 'capitalist' countries in the sense of not having a government which intervenes in the market. Every state does this. It's not even a question of 'how much?'. The question is simply a what kind of intervention is there and toward what end. 

Actually, in many respects, 'socialist market' economies such as China and Vietnam have freer markets at the level of small to medium sized businesses than the US does (far fewer regulatory barriers to entry, much less capital is required to enter the market). And they're definitely not complying with the Western demands to reduce carbon emissions! 

It's understandable that your understanding of what a real communist is might be something like a green party European social democrat except more extreme, because most 'communists' in the West are basically staging a kind of elaborate performance to assert their rebellion against their conservative parents, but are actually just extreme liberals, underneath the Che tshirt. These people aren't actually of the same ilk as communists in historically existent communist countries.