HSA Stock Update


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It continues to be ugly out there in the cigar supply world.  I took the opportunity to do a ring around of industry contacts  (in and outside of Cuba) Friday, the weekend and this morning.

This is what a Siglo 3 used to look like if anyone needed a reminder….. -lol Welcome back to the 90’s…..

I only speak for myself, but I think if I have to switch to NCs, it’s a sign that it’s time for me to quit cigars.

18 hours ago, MrBirdman said:

Hard to imagine them sanctioning that (at least officially) - besides the branding/image complications, the tobacco is much more valuable in a Habano. I just hope they don't make the mistake again of ramping up production by drafting an army of inexperienced rollers. If we start seeing boxes where 50%+ is plugged or with other major construction issues, it won't matter how good the tobacco is.  

Habanos should allow contract rollers to help out.

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14 hours ago, MossybackR said:

Hmmm … my quick checks showed a lot of bare shelves for some premium domestics. 

Well then for sure the second cigar boom is in full measure :)  I enjoy seeing folks smoking cigars, its good for the hobby in general.

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It's only "hearsay" but from what I've seen discussed on various forums is that you cannot discount the demand from China and Middle East based buyers. Paying premiums on various Marcas and releases doesn't faze them.  Habanos starts to get used to those margins and in turn, ensures they serve those markets first.  

Add in a worldwide Pandemic, now in its' second year and all the logistics issues throughout. Add a dash of bad weather destroying some crops too.  Here on FOH, through Rob, we've been privy to what Habanos is able to ship out and in what quantities to a certain degree.  Reports from members across the world echo the same findings: Stock is limited and scarce. 

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4 hours ago, Puros Y Vino said:

 Add a dash of bad weather destroying some crops too. 

When was that?  I heard of a delay due to some early rains, but that was this season.  Leaf that wouldn't be put into cigars for a few years.  Besides, it doesn't sound like there is any shortage of leaf.  So not sure what you mean by weather playing any part int he current situation.

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1 minute ago, Monterey said:

When was that?  I heard of a delay due to some early rains, but that was this season.  Leaf that wouldn't be put into cigars for a few years.  Besides, it doesn't sound like there is any shortage of leaf.  So not sure what you mean by weather playing any part int he current situation.

There's been issues with crop damage the past few years. Depending on what supplies are pulled from it could have affected the amounts and types of cigars that they were able to roll. 

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6 minutes ago, BrightonCorgi said:

What percent of rollers are working right now vs. 3-5 years ago?

You would only get those numbers from Tabacuba. 

Tabacuba doesn't give those numbers :D

To put it in perspective, you had a major factory temporarilly shut last week due to a lack of resources. 

 

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On 2/23/2022 at 11:02 PM, Corylax18 said:

But we haven't heard a whisper from them yet.

Their strategy was to maintain the existing management and observe/understand before taking a more active role. Perfectly reasonable. 

Then Covid hit. 

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1 minute ago, El Presidente said:

Their strategy was to maintain the existing management and observe/understand before taking a more active role. Perfectly reasonable. 

Then Covid hit. 

Yes. Totally reasonable.

Whats the over/under on years before we start to see their hand in the cookie jar? From now, not the initial purchase. 

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1 minute ago, Corylax18 said:

Yes. Totally reasonable.

Whats the over/under on years before we start to see their hand in the cookie jar? From now, not the initial purchase. 

 

I am sure they would like to do a lot of things. 

I am sure Imperial Tobacco wanted to as well ;)

They are 50% marketing partners.   Very few marketing departments have changed corporations 🤣

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Just now, El Presidente said:

 

 

 

I am sure they would like to do a lot of things. 

I am sure Imperial Tobacco wanted to as well ;)

They are 50% marketing partners.   Very few marketing departments have changed corporations 🤣

I'm just trying to be optimistic. 😄  Say what you want about the Chinese, but we could all learn from them about efficiency. 

I couldn't imagine a much larger culture clash though. I've seen the busloads of Chinese businessmen unloading at LCDHs in Havana. Same suit, tie, shirt, shoes. Its like watching "The Matrix".

I would love to be a fly on the wall for the meetings between Tabacuba brass and the managing director selected by the investment firm. Their speaking two different languages in more ways than one. 

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22 hours ago, Hammer Smokin' said:

more folks smoking cigars is good for the hobby. 

more folks hoarding cigars to sell for a profit (or to die with), reducing the overall number of available cigars (and thus increasing cigar costs), is not. 

One cannot prevent hoarding nor flipping. Capitalism is capitalism. 

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6 minutes ago, Corylax18 said:

I'm just trying to be optimistic. 😄  Say what you want about the Chinese, but we could all learn from them about efficiency. 

 

 

not a scrap of leaf on the floor 🤣

 

Cigars: Made in Asia - Tobacco Asia

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27 minutes ago, SCgarman said:

One cannot prevent hoarding nor flipping. Capitalism is capitalism. 

I understand that. 

But my comment was a specific response to the cigar boom being good for the hobby. The boom is good if it means more people are smoking cigars, and thus good for the hobby. 

Capitalism being capitalism has nothing to do with being good for the hobby. 

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1 hour ago, Hammer Smokin' said:

I understand that. 

But my comment was a specific response to the cigar boom being good for the hobby. The boom is good if it means more people are smoking cigars, and thus good for the hobby. 

Capitalism being capitalism has nothing to do with being good for the hobby. 

The eradication of tobacco via laws and taxes are the biggest threat to the cigar hobby.  Add in inflation for good measure.

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2 hours ago, Corylax18 said:

Maybe we should be asking how many generations it will take? 

Not long. These women, who are rolling the larger format cigars, are nearing mandatory retirement. The kids in the next room are rolling small format cigars. When they get older, they get to roll the bigger cigars. The nursery down the hall is training the next batch of rollers.

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 2/23/2022 at 5:02 AM, Corylax18 said:

I'm perfectly fine with them sitting on warehouses full of leaf. Its aging, getting better. What's the rush?

I don't know the ins-and-outs of the industry, but as an outsider/customer I'd certainly prefer quality over quantity given we can't have both.

@El Presidente you have your ear well to the ground.  Do you foresee significant risk of a decline in quality (talent and brain drain), or is quality likely to remain reasonably good? (albeit at low production and higher prices)  Or is the future of CCs entirely clear as mud?

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39 minutes ago, GoodStix said:

@El Presidente you have your ear well to the ground.  Do you foresee significant risk of a decline in quality (talent and brain drain), or is quality likely to remain reasonably good? (albeit at low production and higher prices)  Or is the future of CCs entirely clear as mud?

I suspect the loss of personnel will indeed have a detrimental effect. Supposition obviously. Time will tell. 

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