Can We Survive a Cigar Shortage?

[El Presidente]

This is an article I came across yesterday.....it is from the Washington Post August 1980

What I found fascinating was that the tenet of the article was back to back poor growing seasons in Cuba seeing a spike in Europeans purchasing Non Cubans hence depleting non cuban supplies into the US.

35 years later and one wonders if history will repeat itself somewhat (many variables have changed).

For our European members (and those who visit European B&M's often) how have you seen the mix of Non Cubans in B&M stores over the past few years? How big a footprint do they have?

https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1314&dat=19800813&id=ooBRAAAAIBAJ&sjid=ZQgEAAAAIBAJ&pg=7116,5859759&hl=en

[HarveyBoulevard]

Yes...yes I can.

[JohnS]

If one stocks up before the projected 2016 shortage kicks in, then you can survive. The moral to the story? Start stocking up!

[Jeremy Festa]

If one stocks up before the projected 2016 shortage kicks in, then you can survive. The moral to the story? Start stocking up!

Bugger that. I'm just heading over to Jeff's place.

[SparklePony]

If one stocks up before the projected 2016 shortage kicks in, then you can survive. The moral to the story? Start stocking up!

I'll be right over. I'm bringing a shopping bag.

[raymond5737]

That article was written in Aug. 1980...WTF. What am I missing John concerning a projected shortage in 2016?

Tell me what I need to know and Don't scare me like that...

[planetary]

To answer the "are you ready?" question on a personal note...

I've been a pipe smoker for 15 years, and my pipe tobacco cellar is ...extensive. Well over 1000 tins. Far more than I have use for! This is a pleasure and a refuge, should cigar quality nosedive, or supply plummet.

I got into cigars earlier this year. NC first. Even sticks like Padron made me question whether this was something I should pursue. But then I tried a CC. Then another. Then a third -- and I knew this was something else entirely. So I dove in. Results were hit-or-miss with other vendors, but I found a home at FOH, have never been disappointed, and here I remain.

Coming from pipes, and studying the idea of aging and cellaring there (I ran a site called tobaccocellar.org for a while, and I pulled together a Aging and Cellaring FAQ in the 2000's), I am intimately familiar with cellaring strategy. My first goal was to stock the hell up and get the aging clock started on a wide range of boxes which are likely to be good in a range of years into the future: 10+, 5+, and 2+. Don't want too many peaking all at once, beyond your likely smoking pace, or else they'll age out. (Quantities beyond consumption rate are excellent gifts, and a great opportunity to share.) I've supplemented these purchases with aged stock from PCC via Rob, and some cigars which I am discovering that I enjoy with minimal age, so I have "good stuff" to smoke now, and can not dip into stuff I intend to age for a while.

If supplies are short into the future -- worst case, I'll probably be fine for at least half a decade if I smoke 3 sticks a week. I can certainly also crack open some exquisitely aged pipe tobacco, as well, to balance things out.

But yes. Stocking up is the key. That's the short of it.

[JohnS]

That article was written in Aug. 1980...WTF. What am I missing John concerning a projected shortage in 2016?

Tell me what I need to know and Don't scare me like that...

There was discussion a few days ago that retailers may be down on stock by 25 to 30% in 2016. I think Rob may have brought it up in the 24:24 listing recently which had Cohiba Siglo IV's. Anyway, we can at the very least expect a Cohiba shortage at the beginning of 2016 like we had at the beginning of 2015. This explains why the Cohiba listings we are getting lately are so few. I know Rob would want more, but you can only sell what you get given.

[polarbear]

Theres always a shortage of something coming from HSA

Usually its not a "Shortage" at all, its just everything theyre sending from certain marcas is crap

I've got plenty stashed away to last me 5-7 years, longer if I smoke my pipe more regularly

[JohnS]

Theres always a shortage of something coming from HSA

Usually its not a "Shortage" at all, its just everything theyre sending from certain marcas is crap

I've got plenty stashed away to last me 5-7 years, longer if I smoke my pipe more regularly

Yes, of course this is true too. This has definitely been the case with the Trinidad marca in 2015.

[SCgarman]

This is an article I came across yesterday.....it is from the Washington Post August 1980

What I found fascinating was that the tenet of the article was back to back poor growing seasons in Cuba seeing a spike in Europeans purchasing Non Cubans hence depleting non cuban supplies into the US.

35 years later and one wonders if history will repeat itself somewhat (many variables have changed).

For our European members (and those who visit European B&M's often) how have you seen the mix of Non Cubans in B&M stores over the past few years? How big a footprint do they have?

https://news.google.com/newspapers?nid=1314&dat=19800813&id=ooBRAAAAIBAJ&sjid=ZQgEAAAAIBAJ&pg=7116,5859759&hl=en

Now you have members running scared thinking cigar shortage from an article written 35 years ago. Please put their minds at ease mate!!

[HarveyBoulevard]

Bugger that. I'm just heading over to Jeff's place.

I'm counting on you to steer that container ship from Oz to an 'undisclosed address' when the time comes. Be ready my friend...be ready.

[Guest photorob]

Everything I've read has confirmed this forecast of a potential shortage and/or quality dive.

With the immensely good quality that we've seen with the majority of 2014/2015 boxes, and possible upcoming quality control issues provided the embargo ends next year (I'm betting on it happening by the end of 2016), to me at least it's a strong time to buy.

Following that logic, my collection has gone from roughly 50% NC to 20% NC, as I'm stocking up on Habanos for the long haul. Maybe this is all over-speculation and I should quit listening to the histeria and take my tin foil hat off?

[planetary]

Following that logic, my collection has gone from roughly 50% NC to 20% NC, as I'm stocking up on Habanos for the long haul. Maybe this is all over-speculation and I should quit listening to the histeria and take my tin foil hat off?

Aging is a good reason to stock up (on many selections) in any case. There's a lot of upside to stocking up to a supply level that's 2-5 years of your consumption rate, IMO.

[garbandz]

"For our European members (and those who visit European B&M's often) how have you seen the mix of Non Cubans in B&M stores over the past few years? How big a footprint do they have"

This is a good question,Rob.

Certainly Davidoff has been marketing Non-US dealers strongly,but they have a seriously high buy-in cost,it is $5000.00 in the US.

Maybe it is less abroad.

The ECCJ Magazine reviewed a lot of Non Cubans in its day,it was surprising to see the many brands available in Europe that I had not seen stateside.

Many of the online dealers I have checked out offer a handful of NCs,quite often the better known brands I am familiar with in the US.

I feel that sales of Non Cubans will increase abroad,but I do not think they will occupy a significant percentage of brands if sold alongside Cuban cigars.

Right now I think Non Cuban cigars are a novelty abroad,something to try that is new and unknown,I certainly cannot think of any Non Cubans I would buy to replace what I smoke now..........

And the prices relative to both is not an issue for me,I wonder how much Non Cubans will cost abroad?

When I heard about the bad crop seasons,I started stocking up.

My feeling is that I can hardly go wrong with a stash of current stock.

Having said that,it is surprising that I have only gotten one box of 2015 cigars,this after buying three or more boxes a month since January 2015.

At least among my favorites there have been a lot of 2014s in the pipeline..........

[El Presidente]

the title of the thread was actually the title of the article in 1980

The reason I put it up was that there are some parralels to the current world of cigars.

• A Cuban cigar supply shortage due to a few back to back poor seasons.
• Possible Geo Political changes affecting global supply in the short to medium term.

The thought that went through my mind is that assuming Cuban supply decreases substantially to Europe, Asia, Middle East with the possible opening up of the embargo, will the hole be filled increasingly with Non Cuban cigars. Could the opening up of the US actually be a boom for NC makers?

[Jeremy Festa]

I'm counting on you to steer that container ship from Oz to an 'undisclosed address' when the time comes. Be ready my friend...be ready.

Born ready!

[Troels]

Living in Denmark most notable is that the number of shops selling cigars has droppes drasticly over the last couple of years. Cigars is not in vogue around here. Theres a handfull of tobaccoshops here in the Capital that sells cigars 15-25 pct of their stock is cuban. Small kiosks, bottleshops etc seems mostly to have tubed cubans and very few nc's - the number of these kind of shops is low.

[Colt45]

yes.

[Lotusguy]

I'm ready for the zombie apocalypse

[maxcjs0101]

[polarbear]

Yes, of course this is true too. This has definitely been the case with the Trinidad marca in 2015.

And Cohiba this year

And Ryj from 2008-2014

And Punch from 2007-2014

Trinidad has been crap since late 2012

Smaller Marcas like Diplo, Sancho Panza and VR have been hit or miss (at best) for years as well

Wasn't there also a shortage of larger wrapper leaves that led to supply issue with bigger formats like Churchills and DCs around late 2013?

[Ken Gargett]

Can We Survive a Cigar Shortage?

that would be the royal "we"?

[Randolph]

Its certainly a worry when the price of a Cohiba Robusto is equal to a good bottle of wine!

Would love to share this post with my local travel agent. He was agast when I booked a cruise earlier in the year and asked him to find out from the cruise operator if it would be acceptable for the wife and I to vacate our dinner table for a between courses smoke - while explaining the interval break would take 45 minutes. He couldnt comprehend my feelings that nothing could be worse than not enjoying a cigar break in between courses. I had to explain to him that while he likes to wear glasses with no lenses in them I like to enjoy a good cigar mid dinner.

I have to say I believe there's no nicer environment to enjoy a cigar than when your on a cruise liner.

[NSXCIGAR]

Wasn't the 1980 shortage due to a near total tobacco crop loss due to blue mold? Barring something like that I don't think there's going to be any disastrous shortage.

As others have noted, there may be a shortage of quality cigars before an actual volume shortage. HSA's never been afraid of rolling up donkey poop if it means shipping boxes out the door. After all, people were still buying CCs in 1999-2002 as quickly as ever--in fact at possibly record rates. RyJ and Punch were crap for years until last year and I'm sure they sold just fine during that time.

Am I mistaken or wasn't there talk of an imminent Cohiba shortage earlier this year? As in a shortage of stock predicted for late 15/early 16? That really didn't develop into a major issue as far as I could tell. I did notice some drop off in stock but If you really looked you could find pretty much what you wanted, when you wanted it.