Can We Survive a Cigar Shortage?

[Duxnutz]

I thought that only recently we were talking about massive bundles of tobacco sitting aging away?

Explaining the 'approachability' of 2014 tobacco due to much of it being pre aged bu a considerable amount.

Is it all gone????

[shlomo]

Shortage!!! I must buy all the new crap HSA is shoving down my throat and pay double for it!! Shortage?!!? Oh no!!

I must "reload", "stock up" and "go deep" otherwise I might have to be stuck smoking regular production Bolivar for a few weeks. Heaven help us!!

[LGC]

Maybe the marketing department is putting their experiences to "good" use. They've obviously learned that discontinuations leads to collectibility, which leads to hype, which leads to moving of stagnant or inferior stocks... and the doubling of prices for re-introducing "limited" cigars that were once regular production at a fraction of the price. Curtailing production could lead to increased sales (even during price hikes) due to fear of consumer availability. At the same time, this would allow the stock piling of resources IF the embargo ever drops in the near future I've learned to believe in rumors when they come to fruition... especially when it comes from anyone holding any type of financial interests.

[IcedCanuck]

Could I personally survive? Yes, I have built up enough 'stock' over the years I wouldn't run out of cigars for a while unless my smoking habbits changed.

[Al3xanderdelag]

How long do you guys think the eventual dip in quality will last?

[CdnLimitada]

I hope I have (at least) a good 2 years to stock up. Scary but it does look like the US will open soon and I can't see the price remaining the same not to mention the quality.

[planetary]

Let's not forget that there are at least two milestones to pay attention to:

(1) The point at which cigars bought overseas are no longer blocked at Customs. Requires exec orders, or an act of Congress.

(2) the point at which most of the global (and certain regional?) brand cigars are on sale and generally available within the US. Also requires that trademark disputes (on a brand-per-brand basis, apparently) are resolved.

I would expect demand bumps at each, but the large iceberg of demand from your average joe isn't going to be felt until (2) occurs, which could be years after (1), for many brands.

Beyond this, there are several other interesting milestones we might consider, like:

(3) Broad modernization of cigar production, e.g. rolling & quality control on par with the best NC producers

(4) The use of Cuban tobacco in non-puros.

Both of these are more complex and have more to do with political and economic conditions on the island than just the embargo, but I feel like many of us have this conversation in the context of broader changes, in some ways similar to the westernization of Soviet Bloc nations in the 1990s and 2000s, after the fall of the Iron Curtain.

[PHXCSC]

I just keep stocking up period!

[planetary]

Tend to agree. Need to get more humidor capacity lit up.