Merged: US Cuba policy change


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lol guys. it is really poor form to sit here and complain about your cigars potentially being more expensive when the US opening up normal relations with Cuba is likely going to help the Cuban people

Easy! I'm very happy for Mr. Gross and the people of Cuba. But we're on a cigar forum. I think it's fair game to comment on the effect that a diplomatic shift might have on our cigars.

There's talk that Castro might even announce that Mus will be admitted to the country the next time he turns up in Havana

..I'm trying to understand what the concrete benefits would be for the Cuban people as a whole vs. as an individual....?

More trade, more money coming in, generally means more opportunities for everyone.

People with more money and more choice generally want that choice to transpose to their system of government (unless they're billionaires in which case the status quo would suit them very well, but there aren't many of those in Cuba. I count 2).

Between trade, better internet access, the opportunites it creates and the money that provides, hopefully more Cubans will call for faster political change.

Not everyone will want to leave.

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Reopenng an embassy....restarting diplomatic ties.....don't they mean just recognizing the rather large (non) embassy already there and the figure head normally referred to as an ambassador and his very large staff?

This is a very small first step and don't foresee any change to the normal goings on for a might long time.

First rule is you cannot believe everything you see on tv, OR READ ON THE INTERWEBS.

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This is really great news and surely the beginning of the end of a failed outdated policy that has hurt the Cuban people. So happy that Americans are free and home!

I can now send more money to my family there and bring back cigars without worry of confiscation. The vast majority of Americans do not support the embargo. The young generation here in Miami want a change and it is coming fast. Business here wants a change. The failed policy supports a few companies that have contracts to do business with Cuba. Why should any American be restricted from traveling to Cuba? Where is the freedom in that? Open relations will bring about change much faster than the failed policy of the last 50 years has.

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The other big change is allowing the use of US bank cards and credit cards. This must mean (and I am guessing here a little) a relaxation of banking restrictions between American banks and Cuba. This could have a global impact. For example, one of the main Irish banks, Bank of Ireland, cannot trade currently with Cuba as BoI uses a US bank as its SEPA (payments) clearing bank.

Bank of Ireland would be a small player in Cuban trade but every bank worldwide that uses a US clearing bank would have the same restrictions, Spanish, French, German, Asian etc. Lifting this, and it looks like this change has, could have an enormous impact for worldwide trade with Cuba.

The changes promised yesterday, while the embargo is still in place, could make it much easier for Cuba to trade with the rest of the world. That would be a very big one.

and a Cuban Aficionado with easy Internet access and an entrepreneurial frame of mind could do very well. biggrin.png

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Six emails in my CCW inbox this morning from people asking to become the official US distributor...innocent.gif

lmao.gif Wow, talk about jumping the gun!!!

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what this means is the non cuban cigar industry will be smashed

it also means people that have been saying cubans are overrated will now me chainsmoking habanos cigars

i think its funny.

what i think is the rarer edition cigars will be going through the roof in price

*I respectfully disagree, stigmata. I think very much of the NC cigar market out here has more than proved itself as far as quality and enjoyability. And ESPECIALLY if they begin to start adding "some" Cuban tobacco in their blends I don't think the Dominican and Nicaraguan cigar industry will suffer much at all. Just think; Padron. Arturo Fuente. Pete Johnson and Tatuaje, My Father, and others.

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This is really great news and surely the beginning of the end of a failed outdated policy that has hurt the Cuban people. So happy that Americans are free and home!

I can now send more money to my family there and bring back cigars without worry of confiscation. The vast majority of Americans do not support the embargo. The young generation here in Miami want a change and it is coming fast. Business here wants a change. The failed policy supports a few companies that have contracts to do business with Cuba. Why should any American be restricted from traveling to Cuba? Where is the freedom in that? Open relations will bring about change much faster than the failed policy of the last 50 years has.

I'm watching Ronan Farrow (Mia Farrow's son) who has his own news show on MSNBC, and he ran one of those polls to have the public chime in to say whether or not they feel that this is a right move in normalizing relations with Cuba. The poll results were 100% in favor. World record as far as NO disagreement! Also, I'm wondering why these types of allowances are only for everything BUT for fun and pleasure; i.e. no Marijuana use (initially) except for medical reasons. And now no travel to Cuba except for artistic or research reasons...no allowance for just fun at the beaches and enjoyment of their hallowed cigars, rum, sugar, etc.! drool.gif Why do our politicians and government officials have to decide that we, the regular public, don't have the right to just plain "enjoyment"!?

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If and when the embargo does fall, and I hope it does, I don't care about McDonalds on every corner, I don't have to go in and they provide opportunites, jobs and revenue.

Of course - it's up to the Cubans as to what they wish to allow or not.

I think very much of the NC cigar market out here has more than proved itself as far as quality and enjoyability.

No doubt. I'm of the opinion that if anything, the current Cuban cigar industry will have to up their game as far as overall quality is concerned.

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More trade, more money coming in, generally means more opportunities for everyone.

People with more money and more choice generally want that choice to transpose to their system of government (unless they're billionaires in which case the status quo would suit them very well, but there aren't many of those in Cuba. I count 2).

Between trade, better internet access, the opportunites it creates and the money that provides, hopefully more Cubans will call for faster political change.

Not everyone will want to leave.

Yeah, I understand that, but I am also a big believer in Mo' money, mo' problems.... really could go either way for the average Cuban citizen. It certainly won't be all sunshine, unicorns and lolipops. Batista did not exactly do great things for the people.

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I think very much of the NC cigar market out here has more than proved itself as far as quality and enjoyability. And ESPECIALLY if they begin to start adding "some" Cuban tobacco in their blends I don't think the Dominican and Nicaraguan cigar industry will suffer much at all. Just think; Padron. Arturo Fuente. Pete Johnson and Tatuaje, My Father, and others.

What can make you think that Cubataba would sell premium leaves to the NC industry? It would be counterproductive and even stupid when they are assured to sell huge quantities of cigars on the US market.

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What can make you think that Cubataba would sell premium leaves to the NC industry? It would be counterproductive and even stupid when they are assured to sell huge quantities of cigars on the US market.

Capitalism is what makes me think so. There is no shortage of "high end" producers across the spectrum of industry that, in addition to their premium product lines, also manufacture, market or distribute "lower end" products. This occurs everyday in almost every industry through different various means (i.e. branding strategies, corporate partnerships) in order to "protect" the higher end line through a perceived disassociation.

There is no reason to think that one wouldn't sell the tobacco a Cuban brand might not feel posseses the appropriate qualities, to a non-Cuban cigar manufacturer. In simplistic terms it opens up another potential brand to the market.

Cheers

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One thing to remember is that Cuba owes a lot of money to US companies. Castro seized the assets of of many American companies and citizens to the the tune of 1.8 billion dollars when the embargo was enacted. There is still a lot that needs to be worked out before the embargo can be lifted.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/ideas/2014/04/18/cuba-you-owe-billion/jHAufRfQJ9Bx24TuzQyBNO/story.html

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The Cuba Deal: Why Now?

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It comes down to two words: biology and technology.

On Wednesday, Presidents Barack Obama and Raúl Castro announced the most profound change in relations between the United States and Cuba in decades.

Why now? What explains the timing of this historic change to a policy in place for over half a century? The short answer is that the decision to restore diplomatic ties between the two countries was driven by a surprising convergence of biology and technology. Biology dictated the aging of the Castro brothers and other leaders of their revolutionary generation in Cuba, as well as the graying of the Cuban exile population in Florida. This dynamic altered old political balances both inside the Cuban regime and in U.S. electoral politics. Technology—especially innovations in the extraction of shale oil and gas—allowed the United States to upend the world’s energy map and push down the price of oil, thus undermining the ability of Venezuela, a major oil-exporter, to continue providing a lifeline to Cuba’s bankrupt economy. Cuba needed an economic alternative, and the U.S. became one.

The United States first enacted its economic embargo on Cuba in 1961 with the explicit purpose of ousting the Castro regime. In 1996, the policy was hardened with the passage of the Helms-Burton act, which tightened the embargo and sought international sanctions against the regime in an effort to unseat Castro and bring democracy to the island. It didn’t work. Not only did the Helms-Burton act fail to attain its goals, but it also constrained the White House’s foreign-policy options. Both the Clinton and Bush administrations were stymied in their ability to make any significant changes to a law that was shaped more by narrow calculations related to U.S. domestic politics than by a broader view of U.S. national interests in the hemisphere. Specifically, Republican and Democratic politicians sought the support of the large population of Cuban exiles who voted in the swing state of Florida, and resisted efforts to change or liberalize some of the most stringent conditions of Helms-Burton.

Presidents always had the possibility of acting unilaterally through executive orders, but this electoral calculus deterred them from doing so. That calculus changed with two recent political trends: persistent congressional gridlock and the results of the 2014 midterm elections, which gave Republicans a majority in both the House and the Senate. Obama confronted two more years of complete inaction—a prospect he found unacceptable. If congressional paralysis continued, he promised in his last State of the Union address, then “Wherever and whenever I can take steps without legislation … that’s what I’m going to do.” He’s since followed through on his pledge with transformational and controversial policy reformsranging from adopting measures to curb climate change to implementing a plan to protect up to 5 million immigrants from deportation. Cuba was next on the to-do list.

But domestic politics is only part of the story. The aging of the Castro brothers—Fidel is now 88, Raul 83—and the emergence of succession politics in Cuba contributed to a shift in the regime’s calculations. The graying of the Cuban exile population in the United States (whose median age is 40, compared with 27 for Hispanics overall) also created more favorable conditions for the deal between the U.S. and Cuba. In Florida, an older generation of Cuban exiles that was fiercely opposed to any liberalization in America’s Cuba policy has increasingly been replaced by a younger generation of Cuban-American voters who are more willing to explore alternative relationships between their old and new countries. The shift in attitudes is most apparent among second- and third-generation Cuban Americans, who arrived in the United States after 1980 in search of economic opportunity rather than in fear of political persecution, as was the case with many of the preceding waves of Cuban immigrants. These younger generations know that Cuba’s moribund economy desperately needs an overhaul. Few believe that Cuba will soon become a market economy or, much less, a democracy. But Raúl Castro has been explicit in his criticism of the country’s current economic model and has expressed a preference for a “Chinese approach” in which a more open economy coexists with a closed political system.

The Castro regime, however, has long managed to postpone these reforms, which would strengthen the economy but also constitute an admission that Fidel’s revolution had failed. And postponing this reckoning became possible thanks to the huge subsidies that Cuba received from Venezuela for more than a decade. That lifeline is now at risk.

Again, biology has intervened. President Hugo Chávez death from cancer in 2013 has stoked political instability in Venezuela, as his handpicked successor Nicolás Maduro has proven ineffectual in tackling the nation’s many problems and overcoming power struggles between different factions of Chávez supporters. Venezuela’s economic collapse and institutional chaos was an important factor in motivating the Cuban regime to look for alternatives to Caracas’s largesse.

This would not be the first time that Havana successfully switched benefactors. In the early 1990s, the collapse of the Soviet Union created a painful economic crisis in Cuba. At the time, Russia’s nascent regime halted a subsidy ($5 to $6 billion annually) that had been keeping the island’s economy afloat. Many factors contributed to the Soviet Union’s demise, but among them was a steep decline in oil prices from 1985 to 1991, which meant a loss of approximately $20 billion per year—a severe blow to the Soviet economy that strengthened the hand of reformers in the country.

With Russia no longer willing to sustain Cuba’s economy, the island entered into a painful time of extreme economic austerity known as the “special period.” After a prolonged ordeal, in the early years of this century, Cuba ably created a replacement for its old Soviet benefactor: Chávez’s newly elected Venezuelan government. For almost a decade, Cuba has been receiving about 100,000 barrels of subsidized Venezuelan oil per day. Assuming an average price of $100 per barrel, this would amount to over $36 billion that the Cubans have been paying for in kind: Cuban sports trainers, doctors, security services, military training, and agricultural products cover just a fraction of what Venezuela could have earned by selling its oil in the open market.

But the oil market has changed. Prices have dropped to around $60 a barrel (down 50 percent since June). Weak global demand for energy compounded with a dramatically increased supply, thanks to new technologies like fracking in the United States, have battered countries like Venezuela that are dependent on revenue from oil exports.

The impact of lower oil prices on international relations is evident in Cuba’s new stance toward its northern neighbor. In the same way that it replaced the Soviet Union with Venezuela, Cuba is now hoping to replace the Bolivarian Republic with remittances, tourism, trade, and investments from the United States, its longtime nemesis.
What’s the upshot of the rapprochement between the U.S. and Cuba—the offspring of biology and technology? Cuba is unlikely to embark on a political opening any time soon, unless the current regime suddenly implodes. Cuba’s dictatorship has proven very resilient to political pressures, and systematically and brutally clamps down on dissidents. The government will surely try to maintain its chokehold on the population; at times, the repression may even become harsher as the need to reassert the regime’s power mounts. But in the long run, it will be hard for the Castro regime to maintain a tightly controlled political system if it allows more freedom of communication, travel, commerce, and investment. It’s easier to keep a lid on politics when a country is closed, hungry, and isolated than when it’s more open to the world.
In the aftermath of the agreement, the Cuban government will no longer be able to blame the island’s bankruptcy on U.S. policies. Throughout Latin America, the embargo has been perceived as a relic of heavy-handed U.S. intervention in the region. But that symbol is now fading for critics of the United States. If a closer relationship with America is good for its archenemy Cuba, how can it not also be good for other nations like giant Brazil or tiny Bolivia—two nations that have a fraught relationship with the U.S.? The unintended consequences of the deal are likely to be as surprising as they are varied.
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Here in Toronto, when you want to do some serious mall shopping, you get in your car and drive to Buffalo. So it was no surprise when I read this in this morning's Toronto Globe and Mail.

“For some, however, an opening up of trade between Cuba and the United States is entirely bad news. Anis Serhan, manager of the Downtown Cigar Shop in Windsor, Ont., said an end to restrictions on U.S. imports of Cuban cigars would be very damaging to his business, which sees a large number of Americans crossing the border to buy them in Canada. Mr. Serhan said even his Canadian customers will desert him to cross-border shop if those cigars are available in the United States with lower taxes. While Cuban tobacco restrictions have not yet been fully lifted, when they are, “it is going to hurt my business, really big time,” he said.”

And if Altadis comes up with a Cohiba Green Dot "Putter", I am going to barf.

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Cuba Protects America’s Most Wanted

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Cop-killers, hijackers, and bomb-makers are living in tropical paradise 90 miles from justice. Will they ever be tried for their crimes?

With the prisoner exchange and the normalizing of relations with Cuba arises the question of the dozens of American fugitives enjoying asylum there—including a cop-killer on the FBI’s Most Wanted Terrorists List with a $1 million rewardoffered for her capture.

Assata Shakur, also known as Joanne Chesimard, escaped from prison in 1979 after being convicted of murdering state trooper Werner Foerster. She had been in a car with two fellow members of the Black Liberation Army when Foerster and another trooper pulled them over on the New Jersey Turnpike.
Shakur was on the run for five years after her prison break before managing to reach Cuba, where she was granted asylum in 1984.
In 1997, the New Jersey State Police wrote to Pope John Paul II asking him to raise the question of Shakur with Fidel Castro on an upcoming visit to Cuba.
Whether the pope did or not, Shakur continued to live undisturbed in Cuba despite a 1998 resolution by the U.S. Congress asking that she be returned. She was joined by her daughter, who was conceived while Shakur was in a New Jersey prison and initially raised by Shakur’s own mother in New York.
Cuba also granted asylum to three black militants who hijacked an airplane from Albuquerque while being sought for the 1972 murder of New Mexico State Trooper Robert Rosenbloom during a traffic stop.
One of the three, Ralph Goodwin, is said to have drowned while swimming at a beach outside Havana. Michael Finney died of cancer. Charlie Hill continues to live in Cuba. Hill told a Washington Post reporter in 1999 that he had no regrets about killing Rosenbloom, who had a wife and two young daughters.
“I have never felt guilty about that cop,” Hill was quoted saying. “I never think about that dude.”
For her part, Shakur denied actually firing the bullets that killed trooper Foerster, who was murdered with his own gun. The FBI continued to consider her so dangerous that it offered the $1 million reward in 2005 and put her on the Most Wanted Terrorists List last year.
Among the roughly 80 other American fugitives in Cuba is Ishmael Ali LaBeef, who hijacked an airplane after he and four buddies murdered eight innocents during a robbery at a Virgin Islands golf course in 1972.
There is also Victor Gerena, who is wanted in connection with a $7 million armored car robbery in Connecticut in 1983.
And then there is William Morales of the Puerto Rican independence group the FALN. He lost most of both hands while assembling a device in an FALN bomb factory in 1979, but managed to escape from a hospital ward where he was being fitted for prosthetic hands after being convicted of weapons charges and sentenced to 99 years.
Morales made his way to Mexico, where an effort to capture him led to a shootout, which ended with a local cop being killed. He served five years in a Mexican prison but then was allowed to board a plane for Havana despite American efforts to extradite him.
The most wanted of the fugitives is still Shakur, who remains in Cuba 17 years after the New Jersey State Police’s entreaty to Pope John Paul II.
The present pontiff, Pope Francis, was reportedly a major force in the surprise change in relations between the United States and Cuba, urging the Castro regime to release the imprisoned American contractor Alan Gross.
Gross and an unnamed American intelligence agent were freed Wednesday in exchange for three Cuban spies. One of the spies, Gerardo Hernández, was doing time for a murder conspiracy that led to the downing of an anti-Cuban activist pilot whose private plane was lured toward Cuban airspace.
In announcing the end of the embargo, President Obama was clearly happy to announce that Americans visiting there will even be able to use their credit and debit cards.
The question is whether we will be doing so in a country that continues to shelter cop-killers and a terror bomber and a mass murderer.
The FBI did not immediately seem interested in pushing the matter, publicly anyway.
“At this time the FBI does not have any comment on the reports from today,” a spokesman said. “I do not believe we have a current count of fugitives for publication, but will inquire.”
Retired Det. Tom Nerney, formerly of the NYPD Major Case Squad, investigated Shakur. He reports that a small bridge near the spot on the New Jersey Turnpike where Foerster was murdered has been named after the fallen trooper.
“That’s about all he got,” Nerney said Wednesday.
Nerney fears that Foerster has otherwise been largely forgotten except by his family and fellow cops.
“When you’re dead, you’re dead,” Nerney said.
Shakur remains very much alive, along with Hill, Finney, Morales, Le Beef and the others.
Unless Cuba sends them back, you might consider following the now lifted embargo with your own personal boycott.
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Meet America’s Next Ambassador to Cuba

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Believe it or not, the United States has a man in Havana—and he's set to get a big promotion.
Resuming diplomatic relations with Cuba means a promotion for Jeffrey DeLaurentis, the career foreign-service officer currently serving as chief of mission in the U.S. interest section in Havana. He will become charge d’affaires, which confers much the same status as ambassador. Once President Obama’s critics quiet down, and concede however grudgingly that he’s acting in the country’s best interest by taking this great leap forward with Cuba, DeLaurentis could well be the president’s choice for the historic posting of a U.S. ambassador to the island nation after a 54-year hiatus.
The Senate confirmed him once before, in 2011, for a posting to the UN. And he has served in Havana twice before, once in the early ’90s, soon after beginning his career after graduating from Georgetown University School of Foreign Service, and again from 1998 to 2002. He’s a highly regarded professional, says Ted Piccone, a senior fellow at Brookings and a Latin scholar, who was in Cuba Wednesday for the simultaneous historic announcements from the presidents in Havana and Washington.
“He is exceptionally well qualified to manage this historic and positive change in relations for the foreseeable future,” Piccone said in an email that praised Obama’s actions and noted that Secretary of State John Kerry’s announcement that he intends to visit Cuba in 2015 is “another very strong sign of the deep commitment to move this agenda forward, with or without congressional support.”
Implementing Obama’s decision to normalize relations is not for the faint-hearted. “This will take a lot of solid negotiating,” says Mark Schneider of the International Crisis Group. He cited among other factors narcotics, environmental issues, and counterterrorism, areas that require the skill of a career foreign-service officer like DeLaurentis. “He’s a smart guy, very committed, always concerned about issues of democracy, and he’s very professional, level-headed. He thinks through issues.” Schneider points out that DeLaurentis has been in his post in Cuba since the summer, so he’s been in on all the pre-planning that’s gone on unbeknownst to much of Washington for some time. “He’s smart, he’s serious, he’ll do an exceptional job,” says Schneider, a former director of the Peace Corps and a veteran of many international aid and development programs.
Sarah Stephens of Democracy in the Americas, a bipartisan group that has long promoted ending the embargo with Cuba, said in an email from Havana that when DeLaurentis was first appointed as chief of mission, “he was clearly not a caretaker (and not an ideologue) but someone who could help engineer a transition in relations, and people viewed his appointment that way.”
Johanna Mendelson, who chairs the board of visitors of the Western Hemisphere Security Institute and has worked with DeLaurentis, describes him as a “measured and cautious diplomat, which means he’ll do a great job. He’s not the life of the party, let’s put it that way. But he’s certainly personable, thoughtful, and responsive. He’s businesslike.”
Republicans are threatening to withhold funding for an embassy in Cuba, but more money won’t be necessary, says Piccone. “The large U.S. Interest Section building, which is the same building that used to be the embassy, sits in a prominent spot… and is easily convertible to an embassy without any need for increased funding from Congress,” he wrote in his email.
While Obama’s announcement Wednesday caught much of official Washington by surprise, those in the know were aware that this was coming, and many were in Havana for the big day. Among them is David Dreyer, a former Clinton aide whose Twitter account describes him as a communications strategist, media trainer, and student of Latin America, especially Cuba. I asked him to describe the U.S. mission that will likely revert back to the embassy it was more than a half century ago.
This is what he wrote: “The building is an imposing structure close to the sea wall—which Cubans call ‘the Malecon’—that separates the city from the harbor. This is where Cubans walk, couples hold hands, and classic cars drive by at night. It has also been a public space and flash point for demonstrations at hard moments in Cuba-U.S. relations.”
Dreyer recalled that during the tenure of Chief of Mission James Cason, a Bush appointee who served from 2002 to 2005, the United States installed a news ticker at the top of the building that flashed messages to Cubans walking by, ham-handed statements, according to Dreyer, that included “everything from quotes by Frank Zappa about how buying things makes you feel good, to insults about Cuban women (saying they went out with European tourists for money).”
Cason loved being provocative, says Dreyer. He once attended a Cuban trade fair, where American farmers were trying to sell beef, wearing a big button with a red line through a cow. Cason is now retired from the Foreign Service and is the mayor of Coral Gables, Florida.
When the ticker first went up, then-President Fidel Castro retaliated by installing 75 black flags on high poles to obscure the ticker and keep the U.S. propaganda from being seen by the Cuban people. Eventually both sides calmed down and the ticker delivered some real news, but it was a symbol of an era that Obama wanted to change. “One of Obama’s first moves as president was to shut the ticker down,” Dreyer wrote in his email. “It is now possible the building can be a symbol for progress.”
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