ISIS in the news - Australia getting in on the action...

[CanuckSARTech]

Well, looks like some of the international movements are being reported on. "Australia counterterrorism: 15 detained in alleged 'random beheading' plot":

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/australia-counterterrorism-15-detained-in-alleged-random-beheading-plot-1.2769754

Wondering aloud if this will make the G8 public much more willing for government / military action. However, (and without us getting into a political discussion on the matter, or what nation is to blame for what) no matter what is done against the ISIS threat directly, be it direct action or defensive re-action, the whole mid-east region is just turning into more and more of a crap show and quagmire.

Lord help the next generation or two who inherits this mess.

[CaptainQuintero]

Without getting political too, it will be interesting to see what the Kurds will do after this is over; a group previously deemed terrorist in nature by Nato due to it's attacks on Turkey in a bid for their own autonomous region. Now heavily armed and trained by the West in order to avoid using their own troops, I'm guessing they will all just throw their new weapons away and forget all their new training and go be farmers.

Intervention by nations with zero knowledge of the intricacies of the region and with ulterior motives will never bring peace for the average poor sod. No one in power seems to understand or care.

They don't seem to realise the repercussions of intervention in theatres on the other side of the World. Not expecting asymmetric attacks as a result is as short sighted as the poorly thought out interventions to begin with.

Like you say Keith, I can only hope that future generations have more foresight and wisdom in the matter, if only for the countless lives lost already and the hundreds of thousands that are already doomed to be wasted.

[ebhead]

Can't help but jump in, and I hope I'm not getting too political...but the Kurd issue is not so clear cut...at least from my remembrance of the issues. Kurds on the Iraqi side and the Kurds on the Turkish side don't follow the same political side....motivations are different.

Minor issue, I know...figured I put it out there.

But at the end of the day I wouldn't say it's getting worse...it's the same as it has always been there...and that ain't gonna change soon.

E

[Puros Y Vino]

If the Australian group is similar to the "Toronto 18" I think we're looking at a ploy to prop up support for troops again in the region.

[Skyfall]

There have been several ISIS arrests ( and detainments) made in South Texas recently, with even further concerning intel about ISIS camps in Mexico, very close to border towns and one major Military Base, which is on a 24hr high alert.

[DoubleDD]

There have been several ISIS arrests ( and detainments) made in South Texas recently, with even further concerning intel about ISIS camps in Mexico, very close to border towns and one major Military Base, which is on a 24hr high alert.

This is what concerns me. ISIS is very dangerous with their ability to blend in to the general fabric.

[CanuckSARTech]

...But at the end of the day I wouldn't say it's getting worse...it's the same as it has always been there...and that ain't gonna change soon.

I would counter that it is getting worse, definitely. Better weapons, better training, more adept recruiting and propaganda wings for these groups (due to internet prolifiency), better financing tactics, etc., etc.

If the Australian group is similar to the "Toronto 18" I think we're looking at a ploy to prop up support for troops again in the region.

Negative. Not a similar group, or in that nature, not a similar-themed group.

However, I'm in agreeance that politicos of all stripes will pick and choose the facts-in-issue that they wish to best support their own political views and planning.

There have been several ISIS arrests ( and detainments) made in South Texas recently, with even further concerning intel about ISIS camps in Mexico, very close to border towns and one major Military Base, which is on a 24hr high alert.

That base - lol - is almost always on a high alert. Be it the drug cartels, or one terrorist group or another trying to infiltrate through that border.

However, there's been LOTS of action on the world stage, and it seems that everyone (no matter if it's one "lone wolf" perpetrator, to a 6-member wannabe group, to a many-person "splinter" or aligned cell) wants to tie themselves to the terrorist group du jour. LOL. These types don't just seem to be aligning themselves to an ideology or set of wants anymore. It seems like they don't think the public or governments will respect and/or fear them enough if they're not connected in some way to a brand-name.

[Puros Y Vino]

There have been several ISIS arrests ( and detainments) made in South Texas recently, with even further concerning intel about ISIS camps in Mexico, very close to border towns and one major Military Base, which is on a 24hr high alert.

There was talk that the cartels themselves would take out the ISIS camps to prevent outside "help".

[ebhead]

I would counter that it is getting worse, definitely. Better weapons, better training, more adept recruiting and propaganda wings for these groups (due to internet prolifiency), better financing tactics, etc., etc.

To me what that shows is that the violence has moved from State sponsored (i.e. Saddam, etc.) to a splintered group (old Saddam loyalists - which are the main leaders in ISIS). So, in that way, no, it isn't worse. They're getting their bit of revenge.

It seems worse because the west now identifies with the victims. And the media, being the media (this is not a left/right media thing) needs to drum up fear to get ratings....

The scary thing in my mind about this is that we are living in a "pre-crime" world. And that is far scarier than anything else going on...

[Fosgate]

Caught 4 connected at the border on the 10th. Of course the people in charge of our protection haven't a clue. http://toprightnews.com/?p=5917

Thinking from a tactical standpoint there are so many radicals out there committed to the destruction of western civilization that dropping a few bombs is not going to make a difference. It will take a really bad attack on our own soil before people rally behind the effort to put the amount of manpower into exterminating this threat once and for all. At that point the Rules of Engagement will be lifted to prevent them from being used against us at the advantage of the terrorists.

http://www.mrctv.org/videos/heritage-foundation-panelist-radical-islam

[CanuckSARTech]

To me what that shows is that the violence has moved from State sponsored (i.e. Saddam, etc.) to a splintered group (old Saddam loyalists - which are the main leaders in ISIS). So, in that way, no, it isn't worse. They're getting their bit of revenge.

It seems worse because the west now identifies with the victims. And the media, being the media (this is not a left/right media thing) needs to drum up fear to get ratings....

The scary thing in my mind about this is that we are living in a "pre-crime" world. And that is far scarier than anything else going on...

Trust me, I'm not basing this off of media (of any stripe).

Using your state-sponsored thing, I'm still saying it's worse. If the hounds get too loose, there's nothing holding them back at the leash to restrain them.

I'm curious about your "pre-crime" thought...

Are you talking about it in the measure of the whole "pre-emptive strike" thing, like the justification the U.S. had for Iraq? (Just being specific on this question to clarify - don't want to go down the whole U.S. / Iraq thing on this).

Or are you talking "Minority Report" type thing, of judging the group's members before they've actually done anything (ISIS themselves? The people arrested in Australia?)

[ebhead]

"Or are you talking "Minority Report" type thing, of judging the group's members before they've actually done anything (ISIS themselves? The people arrested in Australia?)"

This...

[CanuckSARTech]

...The scary thing in my mind about this is that we are living in a "pre-crime" world. And that is far scarier than anything else going on...

...I'm curious about your "pre-crime" thought...

Are you talking about it in the measure of the whole "pre-emptive strike" thing, like the justification the U.S. had for Iraq? (Just being specific on this question to clarify - don't want to go down the whole U.S. / Iraq thing on this).

Or are you talking "Minority Report" type thing, of judging the group's members before they've actually done anything (ISIS themselves? The people arrested in Australia?)

"Or are you talking "Minority Report" type thing, of judging the group's members before they've actually done anything (ISIS themselves? The people arrested in Australia?)"

This...

Ok. I get what you're going with there.

I'd say that for this particular issue, it's anything but. When you have 15 people to be arrested/detained, a dozen different locations, intel coming from months of looking at the money transfer / barter traditional institutions, and over 800 officers involved in the raids....trust me, it's based on more than simple conjecture.

And these types of raids, these types of investigations, it's not "Minority Report" (perceived or styled) in that it's not about charging them "pre-crime". It's not a case of (to overly simplify it) pulling over someone in a red Ferrari as they're getting on a highway and handing them a speeding ticket because the cop just KNOWS they're going to speed. To use this subject's context though, my understanding is that you feel these people are detained, arrested, and going to be charged with something (attempted murder perhaps, or something like that?) even though they MIGHT not have actually followed through and committed the act, for whatever reason.

Is that where you're going with the thought?

[Ryan]

Terrorists don't have to have carried out terrorist attacks to have committed a crime.

Planning a terrorist attack is a crime in itself in most jurisdictions. The authorites in Aus must have had reason to round these guys up. They'll need evidence of a plan to charge them, I'd imagine.

So rounding them up 'before a crime is committed' doesn't necessarily come into it at all.

[ebhead]

Ok. I get what you're going with there.

I'd say that for this particular issue, it's anything but. When you have 15 people to be arrested/detained, a dozen different locations, intel coming from months of looking at the money transfer / barter traditional institutions, and over 800 officers involved in the raids....trust me, it's based on more than simple conjecture.

And these types of raids, these types of investigations, it's not "Minority Report" (perceived or styled) in that it's not about charging them "pre-crime". It's not a case of (to overly simplify it) pulling over someone in a red Ferrari as they're getting on a highway and handing them a speeding ticket because the cop just KNOWS they're going to speed. To use this subject's context though, my understanding is that you feel these people are detained, arrested, and going to be charged with something (attempted murder perhaps, or something like that?) even though they MIGHT not have actually followed through and committed the act, for whatever reason.

Is that where you're going with the thought?

I'll respond in detail in a bit....but everything you've mentioned is called "overkill" I'm sorry but if you need 800 people to arrest fifteen losers who you've been listening to for months...that's called padding your overtime budget for next year, not public safety...

E

[ebhead]

oh and....

[Maplepie]

So rounding them up 'before a crime is committed' doesn't necessarily come into it at all.

"

Attempted murder!?! Oh now what kind of crime is that!?

Do they give a reward for 'Attempted Nobel Prize in Chemistry'

"

[CaptainQuintero]

To me what that shows is that the violence has moved from State sponsored (i.e. Saddam, etc.) to a splintered group (old Saddam loyalists - which are the main leaders in ISIS). So, in that way, no, it isn't worse. They're getting their bit of revenge.

It seems worse because the west now identifies with the victims. And the media, being the media (this is not a left/right media thing) needs to drum up fear to get ratings....

The scary thing in my mind about this is that we are living in a "pre-crime" world. And that is far scarier than anything else going on...

That's the issue though, it is still state sponsored. A number of phone calls from Washington to certain princes, emirs etc would end the funding of these groups. But very powerful lobbies, entities and economic interests benefit massively from a splintered and chaotic middle east.

[CanuckSARTech]

Like Andy said (thanks Andy, I was getting there LOL, jk! ) there's lots of things that "attempts" / planning / conspiracy-to-commit, etc., etc. are their own crimes.

These are very eggregious crimes where there's large public safety and other mass concerns.

I'll respond in detail in a bit....but everything you've mentioned is called "overkill" I'm sorry but if you need 800 people to arrest fifteen losers who you've been listening to for months...that's called padding your overtime budget for next year, not public safety...

E

Regarding "overkill", to the contrary.

The nature of all their intel is unreleased. IF the details come out and relate certain things, honestly, this could be simple precautions. If one of the raid sites was a large warehouse complex or a wilderness area, for example, then you'd need tons of extra manning and manpower. It's all about "covering your arcs" of fire, ensure the safety of the responding officers first and foremost with this. Everything is what's called a 1+1 rule: if you know there's one gun, expect two; if there's two suspects known to be there, expect four. With this math, manning changes as well. If these guys are truly tied into ISIS (puppet / support / etc.), then danger-threshold levels will be extremely high - looking at their tactics in Iraq and Syria and their stated rhetoric and such shows it. Again, this makes the manning go up. If there was mention or intel of any potential explosives, again, obviously specialty concerns there, and the manning goes up.

You may call it overkill (which, on the surface of it, I can see how people can interpret it that way). Know that not all 800 of those officers were "boots through the door". They were command and control officers, snipers on rooftops, white-collared brass overseeing the operation, electronic intel personnel watching the online chatter to see about any of the group's personal activity while the raids were going on (to see about "spotters" in other locations, or see if they were otherwise warning each other, etc.), maybe different levels of law enforcement and government involved (certain offences are the jurisdiction of different agencies sometimes), etc., etc., etc.

For all we know too, perhaps they were expecting 100 people at these different locations. 800 officers isn't a bad number then. Maybe they're looking for more. Who knows.

Regardless, as someone in it....

If there's 1 lonely suspect sitting in a "hardened" building, with potential ties to a known aggressive group, and there's intel (perhaps) on multiple weapons, perhaps explosives, etc., I'm not going in there alone if that suspect isn't actively shooting or it isn't an immediate life and death threat. I'm waiting until I have 20, 30, 100 of my buddies and specialty assistance to deal with him. Believe it or not, I want to go home at the end of my shift. So does every other one of those 800 officers in this operation. Using as much resources and specialties and manning as is required to ensure that the number-crunch points to a 100%-success-rate of everyone going home at the end of the day is essential.

It's not overkill. It's not about "padding overtime". The command & control for any op like this is HEAVILY answerable to the penny-pinchers. Trust me, a heavy threat to any officer's life, due to lower manning to save a couple bucks, is not negotiable for some simple overtime. Sometimes, in dynamic and immediately-life-threatening situations is can't be avoided. But if it's a planned op, manning is always key. A show of heavy, overbearing force ensures that a situation (generally) can be contained and the powers-that-be can ensure it comes to a swift and successful resolution.

There's SO many details that aren't known / aren't out for public consumption. And perhaps never will be. There's lots of various ops and things happening that sometimes get massively played down or not released at all, worldwide.

[Ryan]

"

Attempted murder!?! Oh now what kind of crime is that!?

Do they give a reward for 'Attempted Nobel Prize in Chemistry'

"

Conspiracy to commit and attempts at committing are different crimes.

[CanuckSARTech]

I'll respond in detail in a bit....but everything you've mentioned is called "overkill" I'm sorry but if you need 800 people to arrest fifteen losers who you've been listening to for months...that's called padding your overtime budget for next year, not public safety...

E

Enis, I actually hate to do it (I honestly do), but I'll lay out to what I personally think may be a trump card on this (though I'm not trying to "win" - just to help you see why these decisions are sometimes made, whether things can be said publicly or not)...

You say it's overkill for:

• "800 officers" to arrest
• "15 losers" and
• "listening to for months"
• that nothing had been done by them YET
• and that it's a case of "padding" the overtime budget

Well, I'd put it to you like this then.

Yes, it may be overly sensationalizing it, and the public doesn't fully know the extent of this Australian situation yet, but...

9-11.

19 hijackers / "losers" killed 2977 people. Their plans were being co-ordinated for months. Nothing done by them prior to the date itself ("pre-crime").

Would that have been worth devoting (at least, less than, or more than?) 800 officers to stop, and to not have a single life lost, not even the hijackers themselves?

[CanuckSARTech]

"

Attempted murder!?! Oh now what kind of crime is that!?

Do they give a reward for 'Attempted Nobel Prize in Chemistry'

"

PLEASE tell me this was meant to be tongue-in-cheek sarcasm, and you're not being serious...

Conspiracy to commit and attempts at committing are different crimes.

Good point. Distinguishing mens rea (guilty mind) and foreplanning issues there.

[...]

What Captain Q said. Wars are so lucrative. Endless wars are a business model to many (including US based) corporations lobbying and funding governments worldwide. Just sayin' ...

[ebhead]

You can try to "win" but your points don't trump anything.

How is it that with the months and months of listening they came up with this:

They arrested 15 (but now that's dropped to 6)...

...they are, and were, only after one individual who is the leader...who spoke about this a couple of days ago...(which means they had nothing until that phone call....

...they arrested one dude with one prohibited weapon and ammunition....

This is not 9/11 territory and should never be confused as such...

now back to my reading

[Skyfall]