Is it me or are CC distributors around the World bracing themselves for what's coming?

[Li Bai]

As I've shared in another thread, CC supplies have been surprisingly good in the last weeks in France, it seems to also be the case in Switzerland and Andorra as far as I can see.

So here's my question for you @El Presidente and for any of you who might know anything on the matter, are all distributors around the World trying to sell their stock in order to make room for a last big refill before everything falls apart in Cuba?

[El Presidente]

Some major distributors have advised their subdistributors/major retailers that tough supply times are ahead. Jan/Feb incoming hasn't been kind. 

France has been underperforming on the supply side for years. No idea why outside of competence. Switzerland are always well looked after as are usually Andorra. 

Hard currency is in short supply in Cuba. I would be selling everything I have including the kitchen sink. 

 

[Li Bai]

12 hours ago, El Presidente said:

France has been underperforming on the supply side for years. No idea why outside of competence. Switzerland are always well looked after as are usually Andorra.

Underperforming is a nice way to put it Rob, through COVID we went from "almost everything's available" to "we can only provide premium lines and Mille Fleurs" and nobody knows why, even some friends who are well connected.

As far as Switzerland and Andorra, their supplies have been decent for years but it looks like the latest ones have been unusually large, even for them. 🤔

[lb.cigars]

What if the importers are moving the stock before sanctions kick in?

[Puros Y Vino]

A Canadian example. LCDH Windsor 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/canada-cigar-stores-cuba-fuel-shortage-9.7125783

[Li Bai]

Things seem pretty clear actually, the sun is setting and we're witnessing a green flash...

But I'm confident it will rise again soon!

[El Presidente]

On 3/12/2026 at 10:39 PM, lb.cigars said:

What if the importers are moving the stock before sanctions kick in?

Distributors are in a no man's land right now. The current US-Cuba standoff could play out several ways and everyone is making policy decisions depending on:

Option 1. 

Situation drags on for months. Production and shipments from Cuba are inconsistent at best, cut at worst. 

Option 2. 

Cuba collapses. No Cuban cigar production for the immediate future. Possible Habanos irrelevance. 

Option 3. 

Deal is done between Cuban/US governments. Not much (if anything) changes for Habanos. Supply and shipments get back to some level of normality. 

Option 4.

Deal is done between Cuban/US governments. Embargo lifted within 12 months. Cuban cigars permitted in the US. Possible distributor announced for the US (Habanos or new entity). Serious wholesale/distributor competition for the supply of Cuban cigars ensues. 

[DeeBeezy]

12 hours ago, El Presidente said:

Distributors are in a no man's land right now. The current US-Cuba standoff could play out several ways and everyone is making policy decisions depending on:

Option 1. 

Situation drags on for months. Production and shipments from Cuba are inconsistent at best, cut at worst. 

Option 2. 

Cuba collapses. No Cuban cigar production for the immediate future. Possible Habanos irrelevance. 

Option 3. 

Deal is done between Cuban/US governments. Not much (if anything) changes for Habanos. Supply and shipments get back to some level of normality. 

Option 4.

Deal is done between Cuban/US governments. Embargo lifted within 12 months. Cuban cigars permitted in the US. Possible distributor announced for the US (Habanos or new entity). Serious wholesale/distributor competition for the supply of Cuban cigars ensues. 

What is your general sentiment if you had to predict most likely outcome ?

[Malt]

I personally think that if this goes on for a while and CC’s get too expensive, customers will look at other options. Right now buying Cohibas, for example, is getting out of reach for a hobby guy like myself but the Nudie Canonazo was a close option for 1/4 the price and according to Hamlet every bit as good.
For someone like myself that might have a cigar a week, this option is more than sufficient to appease the appetite. As a footnote I would not know this if I wasn’t here. The info highway here allows me to make good decisions with no risk.

I also think option 3 is the best for Cuba, the people there are who needs to make the change not the US, at least not under its current administration. 

[anacostiakat]

8 hours ago, Malt said:

I personally think that if this goes on for a while and CC’s get too expensive, customers will look at other options. Right now buying Cohibas, for example, is getting out of reach for a hobby guy like myself but the Nudie Canonazo was a close option for 1/4 the price and according to Hamlet every bit as good.
For someone like myself that might have a cigar a week, this option is more than sufficient to appease the appetite. As a footnote I would not know this if I wasn’t here. The info highway here allows me to make good decisions with no risk.

I also think option 3 is the best for Cuba, the people there are who needs to make the change not the US, at least not under its current administration.  

It's already happening. I have not bought a Cuban cigar in about three years. I do have enough stock to last me out. I buy mostly for the wife now.

[Lucas Buck]

Option 4 please. 

[Puros Y Vino]

Option 4 would be fun. All the big NC makers will soil themselves for two reasons.

1. Their sales will crater while American consumers focus on the Cuban cigars flooding into the market. It could be few quarters of low sales or a year or two. A lot of lines and probably producers will disappear as a result. Other Tobacco producing nations, (Dominican Republic, Nicaragua, Honduras, etc) will probably take the hit as NC houses incorporate Cuban tobacco into their lines.
2. The big NC houses would love to acquire Cuban leaf and either makes Puros (at least likely initially) or add them to their blends (more likely as pride will factor in). I can see a lot of Pre-Embargo brands coming back to life as "Clear Havanas" as sales of existing lines dwindle.

Prices will probably come down a bit but given how most industries these days falsely use "Inflation" to inflate their prices, they'll probably remain the standard.

FWIW. I concede I'm probably missing a lot of naunces when it comes to NC and distribution, etc. I'm sure wiser folks will chime in.

[yuppie]

I think Cuba lacks a lot of infrastructure to satisfy the US market coming online. Other brands trying to get Cuban leaf is going to put an enormous strain on production and supply will be very limited without significant investment into Cuban infrastructure. Some brands may return and start up shop, but all that will take a long time to settle out.

[Chibearsv]

1 hour ago, Puros Y Vino said:

Prices will probably come down a bit but given how most industries these days falsely use "Inflation" to inflate their prices, they'll probably remain the standard.

If the US market opened up to Cuban cigars, I don't see how the prices go down. Demand would spike. 

[Li Bai]

All the major NC brands will want their share of Cuban tobacco for sure. And I'd definitely love to attend their PR teams' brainstormings when/whether it happens.

[WestCoastSmokin]

7 minutes ago, Li Bai said:

All the major NC brands will want their share of Cuban tobacco for sure. And I'd definitely love to attend their PR teams' brainstormings when/whether it happens.

It’s so funny how many brands and US consumers say that Cuban cigars are over rated or overhyped. But the second the embargo gets lifted, they will be all over them. 

[Puros Y Vino]

1 hour ago, Chibearsv said:

If the US market opened up to Cuban cigars, I don't see how the prices go down.  Demand would spike. 

I think so too. There might be brief fluctuation. I do think NC houses are going to take it on the chin for a while as US consumers go nuts to try CC's.  There'll be some brand loyalty for sure. Opus X, Padron, Fabrica 5  

 

[zacca]

On 3/16/2026 at 3:46 PM, Puros Y Vino said:

I think so too. There might be brief fluctuation.  I do think NC houses are going to take it on the chin for a while as US consumers go nuts to try CC's.  There'll be some brand loyalty for sure. Opus X, Padron, Fabrica 5  

I don’t see it personally. The thing is, Cuba doesn’t have a way to meaningfully increase supply to meet this additional demand. Cuba already has more demand around the world than their supply can accommodate, hence their current prices. So now adding in the biggest market in the world is going to make those prices go parabolic. 

Sure some casual cigar smokers will “want” to try Cubans, but when they go to checkout and a single Petit Corona is $80 or a Siglo IV is $200, they’re going to say “I’m not THAT curious.” So I think the NC manufacturers will be fine because there will be so little Cuban supply available in the US (relative to NC supply) that 99% of their customers are going to be immediately priced out. 

One additional consequence of this - the counterfeit market will absolutely explode and you’ll have the largest cigar consuming nation in the world almost entirely unaware and ignorant about how to spot them.

[Fugu]

Some European producers are incorporating Cuban leaf into their blends already today (and since long). To say those aren’t the most "upper tier“ products would be a vast understatement. Nothing special at all. Cuba is keeping its quality leaf to itself. I currently don’t see why or how that should change should the market once open up, and even if the Cuban industry would be privatised. What I’d see instead is foreign investors, perhaps even expatriates and their descendants, coming (back) to the island and going to start private businesses there, like it had been back in the day. But this would be the perspective for the long run.

[JohnS]

If option 4 plays out, can you imagine an ad like the one below getting redone in the near future?

[Nevrknow]

10 hours ago, zacca said:

One additional consequence of this - the counterfeit market will absolutely explode and you’ll have the largest cigar consuming nation in the world almost entirely unaware of ignorant about how to spot them.

Good thing I save bands! A couple boxes of Swisher Sweets and I'm RICH!!!!!!

 

 

😂

[zacca]

9 hours ago, JohnS said:

If option 4 plays out, can you imagine an ad like the one below getting redone in the near future?

[SUP8333]

Possibly Chen Zhi stopped funneling all the good stuff to his connections so now we have more. 😬

[teamrandr]

Bring back Clear Havanas.

[rcarlson]

On 3/17/2026 at 6:23 AM, Chibearsv said:

If the US market opened up to Cuban cigars, I don't see how the prices go down. Demand would spike. 

Presumably, so would supply. . .in the long term.