Falling in love with the new world?… again.

[DeeBeezy]

Prior to 2019, despite being based in Europe, the bulk of my cigar consumption was new world. 
In the summer of 2019 I embarked on a Cuban cigar journey deciding to work over the summer for a London cigar merchant based in Mayfair. This made me really fall in love and appreciate the quality in flavour of Cuban cigars, I drastically reduced my non Cuban consumption since the start of that job. 

I recently spoke to a very well known figure in the cigar industry, a close friend of mine, an established cigar retailer in London. He WAS somebody who wouldn’t even look at new world cigars, his words last week “the future is in the new world”. Word is rollers are leaving, Cuba is not supplying enough and quality is set to get worse given less rollers and reported bad crops.

This conversation really got me thinking, is it time to start consuming more new world cigars? Do they really have better rollers? Do Cuban cigars warrant their higher price point?

Curious to hear what members think about my friends opinion...

[ha_banos]

Hey Dan. No idea if we've ever met. This is the opinion of just about everyone at the moment lol I expect it's what birthed the Nudies. It's why LCDH around the world are selling NW cigars. It's why many say many of their cigar friends have left Cuba. The mass exodus is well reported in the press. The shift Habanos have made to less, costing way more. The crop reductions are also reported. The economy in Cuba continues to decline by any measures. 

I expect Cuban cigars to become no more than a small brand in the 'NW' cigar portfolio. A minor, albeit premium, brand, by numbers and reputation, at that.

Prices are still going up by the way...

[SCgarman]

The whole Cuban cigar industry is in shambles. Tourism/and dollars from it are virtually non existent. Things there only seem to worsen, not get better. Yeah, the Non Cuban cigar industry is in far better condition. And I would venture to bet a large number of rollers are either working in other cigar producing countries or are in the US doing something else. 

[El Presidente]

8 hours ago, dan benhamou said:

Prior to 2019, despite being based in Europe, the bulk of my cigar consumption was new world. 
In the summer of 2019 I embarked on a Cuban cigar journey deciding to work over the summer for a London cigar merchant based in Mayfair. This made me really fall in love and appreciate the quality in flavour of Cuban cigars, I drastically reduced my non Cuban consumption since the start of that job. 

I recently spoke to a very well known figure in the cigar industry, a close friend of mine, an established cigar retailer in London. He WAS somebody who wouldn’t even look at new world cigars, his words last week “the future is in the new world”. Word is rollers are leaving, Cuba is not supplying enough and quality is set to get worse given less rollers and reported bad crops.

This conversation really got me thinking, is it time to start consuming more new world cigars? Do they really have better rollers? Do Cuban cigars warrant their higher price point?

Curious to hear what members think about my friends opinion...

Perspective.

1. They are doing it tough. 

2. They caused most of the issues themselves. 

3. Cuba hasn't supplied enough for four years. I estimate 60% down in pure stick numbers since 2019 

4. Cuba has pivoted it's positioning structure (as we all know) to minimise the supply impact. 

5. Cuban sales at current pricing are holding in the main. 

6. This years crop while small looks good. Previous two crops were dismal. They can maintain current supply levels with what they have. 

7. Brain drain is hurting them at all levels. However, 2023 quality was excellent by their standards. It hasn't all imploded which lends some hope that there is some intelligent life in the operation. 

8. Most Euro / Asian retailers now need to sell NC cigars to make a buck. 

9. Most retailers tell white lies 

 

[El Presidente]

5 hours ago, VeguerosMAN said:

 I believe 90% of Habanos are now shipped to China and once the China experiment fails the prices will come down to earth, in my opinion. 

That is a common trope but incorrect. Take a walk in any Beijing, Shanghai B&M and the situation is not too far different to Geneva, London, Madrid, Paris, HK, Lebanon.  

This is a base supply issue. Not a redirection of supply issue....well at least not wholly. 

[joeypots]

What is a cigar merchant going to say about the current upheaval in the industry?

"Cuban cigars are vastly superior to anything we can get from the new world. Suck it up and buy the stuff I have because you can’t afford the few cuban cigars I can get.” 

Or, “ Wow, those new world cigars are way better than they used to be.”?

 

[El Presidente]

4 minutes ago, VeguerosMAN said:

 I still don't think LCDHs outside of Cuba are selling Non Cubans, though. 

Incorrect. 

I am not badgering you VMan, but simply to set the record straight, all LCDH internationally were permitted to sell NC since 2021/22.  

Even Habanos realised that they either permitted it or they would lose their franchises, given that they were not in the position to supply the required stock levels for often high street operations to turn a coin. 

[Arabian]

16 minutes ago, VeguerosMAN said:

WOW WOW.  I have been under the cave for too long. 

Both my LCDH and Habanos Specialist sell more NC than Cubans, they are in survival mode. What’s even more hilarious, the LCDH is selling his own NC label cigar. 

[Juliano88]

New world is where it’s at. So many great options. 

[SCgarman]

2 hours ago, Arabian said:

Both my LCDH and Habanos Specialist sell more NC than Cubans, they are in survival mode. What’s even more hilarious, the LCDH is selling his own NC label cigar. 

I would imagine most LCDH around the globe are in survival mode. 

[MrBirdman]

5 hours ago, El Presidente said:

6. This years crop while small looks good. Previous two crops were dismal. They can maintain current supply levels with what they have. 

While that makes sense for filler, I’m still waiting to see the effect (Hurricane) Ian will have on wrapper quality over 12-24 months. I’ve taken the reappearance of some DCs as a good sign on that front, though your report from PCC about lead shipments being way down is concerning. 

[Kaips1]

2 hours ago, Juliano88 said:

New world is where it’s at. So many great options. 

If this was true then why do 99% of them just taste like hot dirt. I've had maybe 3 nw that stood out. 

[Cigar Surgeon]

1 hour ago, Kaips1 said:

If this was true then why do 99% of them just taste like hot dirt. I've had maybe 3 nw that stood out. 

Lots of great recommendations out there that won't fit that descriptor at all. Keep in mind a single new world brand can have a dozen or more offerings that taste different from each other. Far more when you get into bigger brands. 

[Juliano88]

2 hours ago, Kaips1 said:

If this was true then why do 99% of them just taste like hot dirt. I've had maybe 3 nw that stood out. 

Maybe you have access to a poor selection of new world cigars? The 10-12 brands that I smoke rarely provide me with that experience. 

[RDB]

I was in a quite famous European  LCDH around Xmas. Their stock of Cubans was pathetic… unless you wanted full-price Trinidad or the bling lines from Monte & RyJ.

Everyone in their lounge was smoking non-Cubans.

[Grimlock]

6 hours ago, Kaips1 said:

If this was true then why do 99% of them just taste like hot dirt. I've had maybe 3 nw that stood out. 

The last couple months I've been working my way through Illusione's lineup. Out of the 10+ I've tried I have yet to have one that disappoints. Give them a shot. 

[BatFastard]

5 hours ago, Juliano88 said:

New world is where it’s at. So many great options. 

I am on board with this as of late also... More availability, options, better pricing, etc... Love my CCs, but as they become harder and harder to procure, I'd rather venture down the path of least resistance.

[Juliano88]

22 minutes ago, Grimlock said:

The last couple months I've been working my way through Illusione's lineup. Out to the 10+ I've tried I have yet to have one that disappoints. Give them a shot. 

One of my all time favorite brands. 

[DeeBeezy]

3 hours ago, Kaips1 said:

why do 99% of them just taste like hot dirt. 

Tell us how you really feel 😂

[TBird55]

Before cigarmageddon I was smoking 100% CC. Now I am smoking 90% NC. I have yet to find any NC cigars that are remotely comparable to an esplendidos,  lancero,  lusitanias, ect... with 7 -10 years of age. Still have a decent supply of CC, thanks to our host, but haven't purchased any in 18 months or so. 

[Ford2112]

There are lots of different flavor profiles in the NC world. Nicaragua,Honduran,Dominican, Mexican, Costa Rican and Brazilian tobaccos all have different characteristics ,as do the various wrappers, Cameroon, Connecticut,etc. I try to have an open mind. 

 

 

Oh and also....

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wait for it.....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ninfas!! 

[Odessa]

3 hours ago, Grimlock said:

The last couple months I've been working my way through Illusione's lineup. Out to the 10+ I've tried I have yet to have one that disappoints. Give them a shot. 

Could you please specify which Illusione did you smoke? Thank you.

[Kaips1]

6 hours ago, Juliano88 said:

Maybe you have access to a poor selection of new world cigars? The 10-12 brands that I smoke rarely provide me with that experience. 

From Davidoff and down, is that a poor selection? Ive tried almost every boutique brand and major brand and literally 99% hot dirt 

 

6 hours ago, VeguerosMAN said:

"hot dirt" is a bit harsh 😁  Try Fuente Hemingway, Don Carlos lines and Padron 64 anni. 

Tried 2 out of 3 and wasn't impressed. The padron anny was at least not horrible.

 

6 hours ago, Grimlock said:

The last couple months I've been working my way through Illusione's lineup. Out of the 10+ I've tried I have yet to have one that disappoints. Give them a shot. 

One of theres once was tasty to me. Smoked through a couple samplers before. 

[GaryK 54]

12 hours ago, El Presidente said:

That is a common trope but incorrect. Take a walk in any Beijing, Shanghai B&M and the situation is not too far different to Geneva, London, Madrid, Paris, HK, Lebanon.  

This is a base supply issue. Not a redirection of supply issue.... well at least not wholly. 

Totally agree. As a resident of Shanghai and frequent traveler to Beijing, etc., the situation in China is exactly as Rob describes it. When I returned to Italy for the month of October, the depleted stock was as dismal as what I've become accustomed to in China.

The issue is as Rob states... totally base supply, not a redirection of CC stock to China and other parts of Asia. 

[El Presidente]

34 minutes ago, VeguerosMAN said:

Is this the beginning of the end for Cuban cigars?

Catastrophizing is all the rage 🤣

Worse situation I can see is that they will remain a 35-45 million premium cigar business remaining at the top of the prestige tree. 

The problem is they need to have ready on hand now 100 million cigars to refill global shelves and deliver some brand width. 

They don't have it. They will be scratching and clawing for the foreseeable future