Crypto and swimming naked?

[El Presidente]

 

"As Warren Buffett says, “When the tide goes out, you see who is swimming naked”—and it’s far from clear the crypto market has reached low tide."

 

• FTX spooked the market. Was it simply a  poorly run fund by millennials playing grownup in the Bahamas... or a foretelling of serious cracks in the crypto foudation? 
• What benefit is there to govenments to step in and provide called for regulation? They can simply wait,  pick up the pieces, and build their own "cryptoverse". 
• Where to now for Crypto?  Can you crystal ball the next 12 months?

[Ken Gargett]

21 minutes ago, BoliDan said:

Government making a legal tender crypto sounds scary.

I've kept the hell away from crypto and plan to stay the course. 

100% agree. 

[BrightonCorgi]

There is a need and a demand for Crypto currencies.  A lot of tech we take for granted today went through cycles and attrition.  Will it be Bitcoin or something that hasn't been invented yet?

[El Presidente]

8 hours ago, BrightonCorgi said:

There is a need and a demand for Crypto currencies.  A lot of tech we take for granted today went through cycles and attrition.  Will it be Bitcoin or something that hasn't been invented yet?

The core tech is brilliant and best practice. 

The pan handling /snake oil gurus on the other hand 

[Arabian]

Isn’t the whole purpose of Crypto is to stay away from government regulations and interference?!. I personally go by ‘something you don’t understand to a certain extent, don’t invest in it’. The whole thing sounds like a Ponzi scheme.

[Corylax18]

17 hours ago, El Presidente said:

Was it simply a  poorly run fund by millennials playing grownup in the Bahamas...

No, just stupid Criminals.

The atmosphere that allowed them to survive and even thrive is the much, much bigger problem. Its the same kind of environment that allows Tesla to become the highest valued automaker in history, worth 3-4 times more than Toyota, before they ever made a penny in profit. The same atmosphere that lead to the last crash, and the one before that. Greed and unneeded speculation by selfish idiots that eventually sucks everyone down with them. 

Most of the company's "value" was in a "coin" they created and controlled the value of. So it was all fake. The CEO (aka Founder's Ex Girlfriend) openly admitted to siphoning customer funds from FTX to Alameda capital, repeatedly.(Which is a crime) They offered 7% returns on deposits, more than double what even other, un registered, un insured, "Crypto Houses" where willing to offer. 

Nothing about this "company" was ever legitimate, in any way. It was all a big fraud, from the start. None of tis collapse was an accident, or surprising. It was all inevitable and its going to happen again, soon. Most Crypto/Coins/NFTs are just modern day fraud. However, that doesn't mean block chain and the underlying technologies are bad.  

 We're seeing the same thing we saw in 2000/1, people who dont understand the basics of their own day to day life think they're going to get rich quick because they're smarter then everyone else. It turns out they weren't and still aren't. These where and continue to be speculative markets, calling it "FinTech" doesn't change the underlying weakness. Just like we saw in 2000/1 getting rid of the "deadwood" (about 80% of the .com boom) ended up being very good for the tech space as a whole. Amazon, Facebook, Google, Apple as we now know it, all emerged from the ashes of the last crisis to completely change the world. 

Charlatans like this guy stopped getting free money from stupid investment bankers (who all got fired) and the real sharps had to get to work looking for real companies, with real business models and cashflows to place real investments with. I think the same thing is going to happen here. We will see massive reduction in tech related values (most of which wasn't real anyway) and eventually the survivors will emerge. Hundreds or thousands of "businesses" will close down, there will be consolidation and stronger, healthier companies will emerge. I wish we had politicians and regulators with a spine, who wouldn't allow things to get this out of hand in the first place, because it makes the fall that much worse. But its actually getting worse. I was dumbfounded that Ben Bernanke won a Noble peace price for "fixing" the recession his stupid policies helped cause. It's like Giving Putin a Noble Peace prize for ending the war in the Ukraine. 

[porkchop]

Bankman-Fried is nothing but a shabby little huckster. The whole lot of them are. That's what democracy gets you - bandits fighting over a cut of the loot.

[ha_banos]

Only gamble what you can afford to lose. When the fun stops, stop.

https://www.begambleaware.org/

[Andy04]

I listened to a audio book for 5 hours about crypto, blockchain and coin wallets. 

Apart from blockchain technology (which I believe can be applied in many non-crypto related fields), I ended up more confused and less confident with crypto after the 5 hours.

 

I don't understand how it is taken so seriously, with people "investing" their life savings into it, yet it is deposited and traded without regulation?

Most people would never deposit $100 in a bank if the potential return was either $200 or $0, which is the exact risk that the layman has undertaken with crypto.

 

FTX sounded like it was a cash cow, SBF's loans between FTX and Alameda was his downfall. 

He went into the river wearing Gucci, but after the price of his "investments and leveraged trades" headed south, his greed left him butt naked and a long way from shore.

 

Until crypto is held to the same standards and regulations imposed upon a commercial bank, crypto is not an investment and can only be considered a gamble.

 

Thar being said, anybody interested in starting a FOH Coin (backed by Guantanamera Cristales...) before this rubbish finally becomes regulated?

[mater3333]

Bitcoin and crypto are two different things. 99% of ‘crypto’ is centralized and ripe with ponzi’s and governmental crackdowns and control. Bitcoin will continue to do what its been doing the next 12months with a new block (source of truth) being created ever 10minutes and there isn’t a thing governments and fraudsters can do about it. Remember its still very early

[amberleaf]

 

1 hour ago, Andy04 said:

I listened to a audio book for 5 hours about crypto, blockchain and coin wallets. 

Apart from blockchain technology (which I believe can be applied in many non-crypto related fields), I ended up more confused and less confident with crypto after the 5 hours.

I work in IT and have studied blockchain since its inception. It pretty much has no viable use that can't be done a lot better with existing technologies. This despite armies of coders spending over a decade trying and failing to make it work. One prime example is the Australian stock exchange spending 7 years and $170 million trying to build a blockchain-based clearing system, only to have to abandon the whole thing as it proved to be unworkable.

It's the ultimate solution looking for a problem.

[Corylax18]

13 minutes ago, mater3333 said:

Bitcoin will continue to do what its been doing the next 12months with a new block (source of truth) being created ever 10minutes and there isn’t a thing governments and fraudsters can do about it. Remember its still very early

Right, but not forever. Over 19 million of the 21 million possible coins have already been mined. It really isn't all that early anymore. Its 2022, not 2012. Once the remining 1.5-2 million "coins" are mined then transaction fees will remain as the soul way to profit from Bitcoin. Eerily similar to one of those banks we're sure this will eliminate the need for. Other than being the first, Bitcoin itself isn't all than different than Ethereum or many of the other Algorithms that have been created since 2008. Just like the US dollar, its only real value is the value people see in it, weather that reflects fundamentals or not. Bitcoin or Ethereum or Doge Coin, or FTT dont change that basic fact. If everybody decides one day that Bitcoin is the New standard world currency, then it will only go up.(just as the Dollar has after Bretton Woods) But, as others have insinuated, that will never happen, it wont be allowed to happen. 

[mater3333]

58 minutes ago, Corylax18 said:

Right, but not forever. Over 19 million of the 21 million possible coins have already been mined. It really isn't all that early anymore. Its 2022, not 2012. Once the remining 1.5-2 million "coins" are mined then transaction fees will remain as the soul way to profit from Bitcoin. Eerily similar to one of those banks we're sure this will eliminate the need for. Other than being the first, Bitcoin itself isn't all than different than Ethereum or many of the other Algorithms that have been created since 2008. Just like the US dollar, its only real value is the value people see in it, weather that reflects fundamentals or not. Bitcoin or Ethereum or Doge Coin, or FTT dont change that basic fact. If everybody decides one day that Bitcoin is the New standard world currency, then it will only go up.(just as the Dollar has after Bretton Woods) But, as others have insinuated, that will never happen, it wont be allowed to happen. 

I disagree. With all due respect, your response proves that my statement stands thats its early, really early.

The last bitcoin wont be mined until 2140. Each singular bitcoin is made up of 100 million units, often referred to as satoshi’s or sats. Its only unit bias at this point.

Bitcoin is decentralized, the other ones you mention are not. The all have singular attack vectors and can easily be the next FTX or censored chain. In fact this already happened with ETH years ago, they rolled back the chain to undo transactions.

The beauty of bitcoin is its not only decentralized and uncensorable but it’s a singular source of immutable truth ledger. Not anything like the US dollar. Remember the paper/currencies we use today where only created to be an IOU of ones gold held in a bank(s) which was recorded on its ledger. 

For anyone interested in further exploration I suggest this book. 

The Bitcoin Standard: The Decentralized Alternative to Central Banking

Book by Saifedean Ammous

We are early.

[dominattorney]

On 11/27/2022 at 3:52 PM, El Presidente said:

 

"As Warren Buffett says, “When the tide goes out, you see who is swimming naked”—and it’s far from clear the crypto market has reached low tide."

 

• FTX spooked the market. Was it simply a  poorly run fund by millennials playing grownup in the Bahamas... or a foretelling of serious cracks in the crypto foudation? 
• What benefit is there to govenments to step in and provide called for regulation? They can simply wait,  pick up the pieces, and build their own "cryptoverse". 
• Where to now for Crypto?  Can you crystal ball the next 12 months?

My favorite thing about it is there are firms trying to track where FTX crypto went. Let that sink in. The privacy factor behind crypto, the one thing that was "solid" about it, melts into air before our very eyes. 

Never can I resist an opportunity to quote Karl Marx. 

[helix]

Turns out to be a farce after all.

[Ken Gargett]

On 11/29/2022 at 3:18 AM, porkchop said:

Bankman-Fried is nothing but a shabby little huckster. The whole lot of them are. That's what democracy gets you - bandits fighting over a cut of the loot.

no argument about the hucksters but i think perhaps that democracy has other advantages and not sure it is quite fair to blame human greed and failings on a system of government, especially in comparison to the alternatives. 

[Chas.Alpha]

Crypto is: When Toto finally realizes he is actually the Wizard...

[porkchop]

6 hours ago, Ken Gargett said:

no argument about the hucksters but i think perhaps that democracy has other advantages and not sure it is quite fair to blame human greed and failings on a system of government, especially in comparison to the alternatives. 

Pretty much agree...could be said, at least with democracy people get to fight over the loot. However, the parameters on who can vote should be stricter.     

[Ken Gargett]

25 minutes ago, porkchop said:

Pretty much agree...could be said, at least with democracy people get to fight over the loot. However, the parameters on who can vote should be stricter.     

in a perfect world, only those who agreed with me would get (or deserve) a vote but doesn't restricting parameters rather defeat the concept of democracy?

[porkchop]

11 hours ago, Ken Gargett said:

in a perfect world, only those who agreed with me would get (or deserve) a vote but doesn't restricting parameters rather defeat the concept of democracy?

Not at all. You should have to put in before you can take out.

And ideas are judged by their results not their intentions. The idea of democracy extending to larger and larger swaths of the population is relatively modern, no?

[Ken Gargett]

6 hours ago, porkchop said:

Not at all. You should have to put in before you can take out.

And ideas are judged by their results not their intentions. The idea of democracy extending to larger and larger swaths of the population is relatively modern, no?

not sure that because a concept or idea is modern is something to knock. we'd still be standing on a flat earth using leeches in hospitals otherwise. 

as for results and intentions, sure, but i think it was churchill who said, to paraphrase greatly, democracy is a load of rubbish but every other system is a bigger load of rubbish. if you have a better system than democracy then please, let's hear it. only getting to vote if you 'put in', is not it. 

"You should have to put in before you can take out." who defines who puts in? good luck getting agreement on that. and who enforces it? we can vote from 18. how many 18 year olds have "put in"? so they don't get to vote? what exactly do you have to do to get that vote?

some bloke builds a great business. sure, that is putting in and they deserve a say under any system. but his idiot kid lives off the trust fund. no vote for him? or actually does his best to continue the business but simply is not a good businessman and the business goes south. he lose his vote? 

even if the idea of putting in to be allowed to vote was accepted, which moves us completely out of a democracy, it is unworkable. 

[Nevrknow]

Like everyone before us @Ken Gargett we do the best we can. We don't quit, but we do the best we can with what we have.

[porkchop]

12 hours ago, Ken Gargett said:

not sure that because a concept or idea is modern is something to knock. we'd still be standing on a flat earth using leeches in hospitals otherwise. 

as for results and intentions, sure, but i think it was churchill who said, to paraphrase greatly, democracy is a load of rubbish but every other system is a bigger load of rubbish. if you have a better system than democracy then please, let's hear it. only getting to vote if you 'put in', is not it. 

"You should have to put in before you can take out." who defines who puts in? good luck getting agreement on that. and who enforces it? we can vote from 18. how many 18 year olds have "put in"? so they don't get to vote? what exactly do you have to do to get that vote?

some bloke builds a great business. sure, that is putting in and they deserve a say under any system. but his idiot kid lives off the trust fund. no vote for him? or actually does his best to continue the business but simply is not a good businessman and the business goes south. he lose his vote? 

even if the idea of putting in to be allowed to vote was accepted, which moves us completely out of a democracy, it is unworkable. 

Some form of democracy is the best model.

Plenty of 18 year olds, at the very least, begin to put in through military service.

As for the idiot son, we can debate what else qualifies as putting in. Not sure why exerting effort for the slightest parameters to exist suddenly renders the concept unworkable. 

[Ken Gargett]

12 hours ago, porkchop said:

Some form of democracy is the best model.

Plenty of 18 year olds, at the very least, begin to put in through military service.

As for the idiot son, we can debate what else qualifies as putting in. Not sure why exerting effort for the slightest parameters to exist suddenly renders the concept unworkable. 

to be honest, a few years ago i would have assumed this was just a piss take and ignored it. but these days, who knows. if it is simply an attempt to entertain yourself, i really do have better things to do. but just in case...

leaving aside the issue of who is in and out for now, 'some form of democracy'? democracy is a bit like being pregnant. you are or you are not. you either have democracy or you don't. what you are suggesting is not some form of democracy. it is some form of tyranny. anyone with a genuine understanding of what democracy is would have little doubt of that. 

if you genuinely believe what you have said, then you are an opponent of democracy. 

you honestly expect that a sector of the population, large or small, is going to bed one night with the right to vote and waking up the next day having been disenfranchised and they are simply going to roll over and cop it? i do not know what country you are based in but you are delusional if you think that. what you are suggesting is germany in the 30s and we all know how that turned out for the planet. or perhaps you think your cronies (and we are assuming that you will be considered as one who gets to vote - how are you going to feel if you are excluded?) have learnt and can do it better. but there are plenty of examples of what you want - china, russia, cuba et al. and lots of third world dictatorships. 

but as for specifics, 'we can debate what else qualifies'. who can debate this? everyone? that might put the kybosh on the whole thing. or some form of selected elite (and who is selecting them or is this being done at the point of a gun?)? what about those who don't agree with what 'your elite' decide? well, i suppose you are giving the vote to 18 year olds in the military so that might assist. because you are going to need the military to prop up your dictatorship. 

what you are suggesting is basically the stuff of tinpot dictators and despots. and those who wish to be.

to consider it a form of democracy is utterly delusional. good luck.