NC Production issues under the microscope.

[El Presidente]

One of the takeaways from Dortmund was the inability of many NC manufacturers to take European/Middle East/Asian orders from traditionally Cuban retailers/distributors.  They simply did not have the capacity to supply in the short to medium term. They were happy to sign up for distribution but a $500 USD order would take 6 months + to fulfill. In the main, they do not have the capacity to meet demand. 

Just increase production?  Not quite so simple 

DREW ESTATE DISCONTINUES 100+ SKUS

Drew Estate has informed retailers that it is beginning to trim its portfolio by discontinuing more than 100 SKUs, notably including the entirety of the La Vieja Habana and Undercrown Sun Grown lines.

“The premium cigar industry continues to face many challenges, including lingering supply chain disruptions and production difficulties across the board,” said David Lazarus, svp of sales for Drew Estate, in a letter to retailers. “Complications such as these have led us to perform a deep-dive study of our entire product portfolio to gain a deeper understanding of the performance of every one of the brands/SKUs we offer.

CONTINUED

[NSXCIGAR]

Maybe I'm reading this as they're realizing they're producing the wrong things. This would align with a recent comment that NCs have too many lines and blend inconsistency. Perhaps the market expansion is going to force them into a more CC-style model of fewer brands and lines. I hope so as this has always seemed like the wrong approach for NCs to me. It's simply impossible to keep track of these NCs and who makes them. I've always thought it was a big mistake. Too many brands, too many lines. This is a huge opportunity for NCs to take serious market share but they need to grow up and do it right. 

[gustavehenne]

1 hour ago, NSXCIGAR said:

Maybe I'm reading this as they're realizing they're producing the wrong things. This would align with a recent comment that NCs have too many lines and blend inconsistency. Perhaps the market expansion is going to force them into a more CC-style model of fewer brands and lines. I hope so as this has always seemed like the wrong approach for NCs to me. It's simply impossible to keep track of these NCs and who makes them. I've always thought it was a big mistake. Too many brands, too many lines. This is a huge opportunity for NCs to take serious market share but they need to grow up and do it right. 

Couldn't agree more. The variety is overwhelming and as a consumer I have, for the most part, no idea where to start or begin.

I've also found in certain marcas that not only do they have so many lines (many of which suck) but the quality also isn't there. I've had a hugely bad run with My Father cigars recently thats totally put me off them.

Would rather see fewer, more quality driven lines that have real differentiation rather than the cast of a thousand that taste similar and/or don't draw well.

Thanks for sharing the article

[El Presidente]

8 minutes ago, stevenhaugen said:

Couldn't agree more. The variety is overwhelming and as a consumer I have, for the most part, no idea where to start or begin.

I've also found in certain marcas that not only do they have so many lines (many of which suck) but the quality also isn't there. I've had a hugely bad run with My Father cigars recently thats totally put me off them.

Would rather see fewer, more quality driven lines that have real differentiation rather than the cast of a thousand that taste similar and/or don't draw well.

Thanks for sharing the article

It is broadly agreed that 2000 and 2021 NC QC has been the worst in memory. That was the result of covid and what was largely enforced "remote" factory management.  QC should have been shunted back into groove this year. 

 

[Cigar Surgeon]

7 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

It is broadly agreed that 2000 and 2021 NC QC has been the worst in memory. That was the result of covid and what was largely enforced "remote" factory management.  QC should have been shunted back into groove this year. 

 

And I will say as someone who critiques NCs all week long; we're talking about 99% of cigars reviewed being perfect going down to say 80%. It's a significant drop, but the vast majority are still flawless. 

[Cairo]

19 minutes ago, stevenhaugen said:

I've had a hugely bad run with My Father cigars recently thats totally put me off them.

My experience with NCs is that you want them when they are relatively unknown and "boutique" since they are produced in smaller quantities and under the watchful eye of experienced tobacco folks.   My Father is a great example--in their first couple of years they were excellent--now, not so much...

Once they get "popular" the production quantity goes up, the quality goes down.

There are a couple of well known exceptions--but I still prefer new "boutiques" to the old standbys.

Here is a NC reviewer I like--almost all "boutique" smokes on his list:

https://kohnhed.com/2021/12/21/my-top-25-cigars-of-2021-cigar-reviews-by-the-katman/

[SCgarman]

23 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

It is broadly agreed that 2000 and 2021 NC QC has been the worst in memory. That was the result of covid and what was largely enforced "remote" factory management.  QC should have been shunted back into groove this year. 

 

I must say the QC with the N3 nudies has been top notch so far! Perfect draw, burn. No need for re-lights of having to babysit the cigar.

[El Presidente]

Just now, SCgarman said:

I must say the QC with the N3 nudies has been top notch so far! Perfect draw, burn. No need for re-lights of having to babysit the cigar.

It helps QC when you only have 5 pairs in the making process 

I still get the occasional "tighter" one. No plugged ones as yet.  

The team did a great job given the gauge. 

[SCgarman]

27 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

It helps QC when you only have 5 pairs in the making process 

I still get the occasional "tighter" one. No plugged ones as yet.  

The team did a great job given the gauge. 

Absolutely!

[dominattorney]

The underground sun grown line needed to go anyway, in my opinion. I think the NC brands are under enormous pressure to create new lines and blends each year just to stay ahead of the competition. There was a time when foundry just made one off cigars in different blends and violas and when they were gone, no more of them and on to the new. That may still be the case with them but I haven't dabbled in non-nudie NCs for over a decade. 

[El Presidente]

1 hour ago, dominattorney said:

I think the NC brands are under enormous pressure to create new lines and blends each year just to stay ahead of the competition. 

Hence the 50 SKU's and 5 blend scenario that is very common 

[NSXCIGAR]

4 hours ago, dominattorney said:

I think the NC brands are under enormous pressure to create new lines and blends each year just to stay ahead of the competition.

That sounds like they're trying to win the short game. As I noted, it might be time to grow up and play the long game. They're beginning to see that the existing model isn't conducive to breaking into major global markets that have been 90% CC for 200 years. The success is going to come with consistent cigars that please, not branding and marketing hijinks. People want to discover the cigars they like and stick with it. New cigars are fine but you cannot compromise existing products to do it. 

[Bagman]

20 hours ago, El Presidente said:

It is broadly agreed that 2000 and 2021 NC QC has been the worst in memory. That was the result of covid and what was largely enforced "remote" factory management.  QC should have been shunted back into groove this year. 

 

Not been my experience at all. I've moved heavily to non-cubans and 2021 in particular has been quite good.  Course there are thousands of cigars that I've never tried, but I have been very impressed in what I have tried. Only had some 2022, but they are even better so far.

[Arabian]

On 9/30/2022 at 6:05 AM, NSXCIGAR said:

 It's simply impossible to keep track of these NCs and who makes them. I've always thought it was a big mistake. Too many brands, too many lines. This is a huge opportunity for NCs to take serious market share but they need to grow up and do it right. 

I remember watching a video where Sanj Patel mentions that +90% of 'cigar experts' don't know anything about tobacco yet they fly out and manufacture their own label. maybe that's why there are too many of them. They saw an investment opportunity and took an advantage of it. 

[NSXCIGAR]

1 hour ago, Arabian said:

I remember watching a video where Sanj Patel mentions that +90% of 'cigar experts' don't know anything about tobacco yet they fly out and manufacture their own label. maybe that's why there are too many of them. they saw an investment opportunity and took an advantage of it. 

Well, that's amateur hour as I say. If they want to play in the global sandbox they're going to have to grow up. It seems like that next step up is going to weed out all the jokers and force some consolidation. 

[Cigar Surgeon]

8 hours ago, Arabian said:

I remember watching a video where Sanj Patel mentions that +90% of 'cigar experts' don't know anything about tobacco yet they fly out and manufacture their own label. maybe that's why there are too many of them. They saw an investment opportunity and took an advantage of it. 

There's some truth to that. In the past all it took was a hand shake and $50,000 to launch a 'cigar brand'. Of course those brands then (and now) were typically dead 8-10 months after the tradeshow.

A large percentage of small brand blending is most commonly done by mailing a series of samples and then the owner of the brand picking the one he likes. True blending isn't done by most. Heck even some of the really large companies do blending by panel.

[BurstReynolds]

I know nothing, but the endless NC skus reminds me of what’s been happening in craft beer for the last decade. At first the variety is exciting and compelling, but ultimately it’s exhausting. The trend doesn’t seem to be slowing in that space. 

[NSXCIGAR]

9 hours ago, Cigar Surgeon said:

A large percentage of small brand blending is most commonly done by mailing a series of samples and then the owner of the brand picking the one he likes. True blending isn't done by most. Heck even some of the really large companies do blending by panel.

That sounds like these products aren't a labor of love. Perhaps that's the issue. 

Maybe the only way to do it is the pre-Rev Cuban model. An owner who fully oversees a brand that has common DNA. Not that larger brands couldn't buy or own other brands but each brand should be fully developed and maintained as such. All new lines are within brands, not separate. 

In fact, even post-Rev Cuba works that way. A company that controls 27 brands and all new lines are within brands. All brands are (supposed to be) distinct and unique. Brands don't come and go on a whim. 

But what do I know...I don't even smoke the damn things. 

[SRH1]

On 9/29/2022 at 5:52 PM, SCgarman said:

I must say the QC with the N3 nudies has been top notch so far! Perfect draw, burn. No need for re-lights of having to babysit the cigar.

 

On 9/29/2022 at 5:55 PM, El Presidente said:

It helps QC when you only have 5 pairs in the making process 

I still get the occasional "tighter" one. No plugged ones as yet.  

The team did a great job given the gauge. 

The quality is consistently exceptional. Fewer hands and Hamlet’s production model have produced skinnies of consistently exceptional quality. Kudos! 

[JustDave]

10 hours ago, cjmaas said:

I know nothing, but the endless NC skus reminds me of what’s been happening in craft beer for the last decade. At first the variety is exciting and compelling, but ultimately it’s exhausting. The trend doesn’t seem to be slowing in that space. 

The overlap here with the craft whiskey industry is very apparent as well.

[PrairieSmoke]

3 hours ago, JustDave said:

The overlap here with the craft whiskey industry is very apparent as well.

Yup. The U.S. is completely enamored with the "new" in many sectors. 

[Ford2112]

I see a lot of these so called instagram cigar aficionados who smoke a different cigar every day and I have heard of maybe 2 of the brands. Walk into any B and M and they have shelves full of cigars I'll never try lol. Padron, Fuente and some other brands are consistent in quality and flavor for me. Those are what I'll buy 

[El Hoze]

I fly back and forth from Miami to Santiago, Dominican Republic alot as we live in South Florida and my wife’s family lives in Santiago. Probably the easiest route in the AA system to get upgraded on and a big cigar industry route…I always joke if I’m sitting next someone on that route there’s an 80% chance they’re in the cigar business. I’ve sat next to everyone from Carlito Fuente (a couple times) to Manuel Quesada to guys that are clearly just trying to make a buck and don’t really care about the world of tobacco and cigars and will probably be selling something else entirely in a year or two. There are alot of those guys. Pretty shocking that you’d have your own cigar brand and know less about blending tobacco than I know and I’m hardly an expert by a longshot. 

I echo the comments of there being far too many NC variations floating around. Like hey these are the very best 85 blends we could come up with. Same with beers…these breweries with 14 different IPAs. How about 2 really good ones. 

[NSXCIGAR]

13 hours ago, El Hoze said:

Pretty shocking that you’d have your own cigar brand and know less about blending tobacco than I know

I'm beginning to see that this is much more of an issue than I ever suspected. Indeed, I don't know if you can take an industry global without the passion, pride or the knowledge. 

[ilubtv]

On 10/1/2022 at 12:13 PM, cjmaas said:

I know nothing, but the endless NC skus reminds me of what’s been happening in craft beer for the last decade. At first the variety is exciting and compelling, but ultimately it’s exhausting. The trend doesn’t seem to be slowing in that space. 

That’s exactly what I think of. At first, it’s fun to try the different brands and blends . The brands would seem lose their identities and also the customers develop no loyalty to the brands.