Ukraine

[NSXCIGAR]

I'm not sure you can believe any reports of success/defeat on either side but it does seem like Russia is taking an awfully long time to gain control. 

If they still haven't within the next 12 hours there's going to be some serious financial losses in Russia when the markets open Monday morning. 

The entire world is slowly coming to support Ukraine. I see more pressure on Russia and more support for Ukraine every day this goes on. Could it be that Ukraine has a chance here?

[MrBirdman]

2 minutes ago, NSXCIGAR said:

The entire world is slowly coming to support Ukraine. I see more pressure on Russia and more support for Ukraine every day this goes on. Could it be that Ukraine has a chance here?

I think there is definitely a chance - Putin did not expect the West to respond so robustly. And the Russians did not expect these kinds of logistical issues until they’d pushed further into the country. As long as Zelensky stays alive they will keep fighting. 

[GoodStix]

I'm looking forward to a box of the 7x47 Zelenskyy 😉

[riderpride]

Canada sending $25mil in equipment and thousands of troops on standby 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/joly-putin-madness-ukraine-1.6366326

Cheers

[Kaptain Karl]

2 hours ago, BEVOSREVENGE said:

 

People see these maps and can think Russia has made some epic advances. In reality for the defense, giving up territory to shorten interior defensive lines and logistics while doing the opposite to the invader has proven again and again in history to be a powerful formula for the defenders. I just read “the Guns of August” again, and the two great battles of the opening of WW1, Tannenberg and the Marne, were won this way. I see the Russian military getting brutalized in the next few weeks here, especially with over extended Russian logistical problems and the influx of high technology squad operated anti tank and SAM missiles. 

[BEVOSREVENGE]

 

 

2 hours ago, NSXCIGAR said:

I'm not sure you can believe any reports of success/defeat on either side but it does seem like Russia is taking an awfully long time to gain control. 

If they still haven't within the next 12 hours there's going to be some serious financial losses in Russia when the markets open Monday morning. 

The entire world is slowly coming to support Ukraine. I see more pressure on Russia and more support for Ukraine every day this goes on. Could it be that Ukraine has a chance here?

The Ruble is already being reduced to rubble.

The best hope for Ukraine is that the invading soldiers don’t, won’t or can’t do what they are ordered to do.

[MrBirdman]

The question is becoming whether Putin is willing to destroy large swaths of Kiev and indiscriminately kill large numbers of civilians to achieve his goal. They have held off so far to sustain Putin’s ridiculous claims of liberation. 

[BEVOSREVENGE]

14 minutes ago, MrBirdman said:

The question is becoming whether Putin is willing to destroy large swaths of Kiev and indiscriminately kill large numbers of civilians to achieve his goal. They have held off so far to sustain Putin’s ridiculous claims of liberation. 

Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that.

 

 

[Kaptain Karl]

16 minutes ago, MrBirdman said:

The question is becoming whether Putin is willing to destroy large swaths of Kiev and indiscriminately kill large numbers of civilians to achieve his goal. They have held off so far to sustain Putin’s ridiculous claims of liberation. 

The deeper he goes in, the more destructive it will be for them. Urban warfare in a destroyed city (see Stalingrad) is murderous for the invader. Defense in depth is the key for the Ukrainians, we’re now entering the period where Ukrainian lethality will significantly increase. Maneuver warfare in open ground is where the Russians will have the clear initiative. 

[NSXCIGAR]

1 hour ago, MrBirdman said:

The question is becoming whether Putin is willing to destroy large swaths of Kiev and indiscriminately kill large numbers of civilians to achieve his goal. They have held off so far to sustain Putin’s ridiculous claims of liberation. 

If that starts happening and the consensus is that Ukraine still has a chance you might see more overt and immediate support from countries like Hungary and Poland. At the very least there may be strong motivation for volunteer soldiers to come in to keep the governments out of it. If the Russians engaged in total war anyone helping Ukraine would be considered heroes to the world and loved forever in Ukraine.

 

US intel saying Belarus is coming in for Russia:

https://theweek.com/russo-ukrainian-war/1010678/us-official-belarus-is-preparing-to-join-russian-invasion-of-ukraine

[Ken Gargett]

2 hours ago, Kaptain Karl said:

The deeper he goes in, the more destructive it will be for them. Urban warfare in a destroyed city (see Stalingrad) is murderous for the invader. Defense in depth is the key for the Ukrainians, we’re now entering the period where Ukrainian lethality will significantly increase. Maneuver warfare in open ground is where the Russians will have the clear initiative. 

talking with an old friend of mine who worked for State, Defense and Homeland at various stages. retired now. she is not so convinced the Ukraine can hold out long term. overwhelming forces and equipment. actually, she and i visited Kyiv back in the 80s, about ten days before Chernobyl went off. loved the place. 

hearing this fruitbat putting troops on nuclear alert is terrifying. he might just be mad enough to press the button. and what on earth would be the response to that? 

 

just read something that cannot possibly be true??? surely? 

the UN has had russia veto responses through their permanent position on the security council - as one would expect. but there is a resolution for a hearing by the general assembly sponsored by the security council, which they can do.

and if i have this right (and i really can't believe that humanity could possibly be so stupid), the acting chairman for the session from the security council will be .....

russia! 

[Fuzz]

4 hours ago, Ken Gargett said:

talking with an old friend of mine who worked for State, Defense and Homeland at various stages. retired now. she is not so convinced the Ukraine can hold out long term. overwhelming forces and equipment. actually, she and i visited Kyiv back in the 80s, about ten days before Chernobyl went off. loved the place. 

hearing this fruitbat putting troops on nuclear alert is terrifying. he might just be mad enough to press the button. and what on earth would be the response to that? 

 

just read something that cannot possibly be true??? surely? 

the UN has had russia veto responses through their permanent position on the security council - as one would expect. but there is a resolution for a hearing by the general assembly sponsored by the security council, which they can do.

and if i have this right (and i really can't believe that humanity could possibly be so stupid), the acting chairman for the session from the security council will be .....

russia! 

The Presidency of the UN Security Council changes every month between the permanent and non-permanent members of the Council. Right now it is Russia, but tomorrow (1st March) it switches to the United Arab Emirates.

Presidency in 2022

Month	Country
January	Norway
February	Russia
March	United Arab Emirates
April	United Kingdom
May	United States
June	Albania
July	Brazil
August	China
September	France
October	Gabon
November	Ghana
December	India

 

 

[BEVOSREVENGE]

 

 

19 hours ago, Ken Gargett said:

i did see the appalling decision that russia be allowed to continue qualification for the world cup. shame on the organisation allowing that. love to see every other nation simply announce that if russia not excluded then they will withdraw. 

They have reversed course on this.  Russia is out.

[NSXCIGAR]

Russia out of Eurovision:

https://www.vulture.com/2022/02/eurovision-2022-russia-ukraine-invasion.html

[El Presidente]

As I retire for the evening, my heart is for all those Ukranian souls fighting invasion. Regardless of the outcome, your resistance is inspirational. I am humbled. God blessed. 

[BEVOSREVENGE]

 

[...]

Pardon my bold language but it seems fu**ed up that in this day and age, mindless violence and all out war would still be understood as being the right option to go forward with. What will it take, as a specie, to make the right choices, re-purpose all nuclear weapons, disable divisive thinking and enable common goal, dispassionate actions from our leaders?

[Kitchen]

Just saw that the EU is fast tracking Ukraine entering into it, and I must admit I have no idea if this is the right thing to do or not, but I have to wonder if the people of Europe are actually coming to recognize the true consequences of this move.  

Putin is riding a tiger now and he cant get off until he takes over Ukraine.  If he does stop, he is finished politically and perhaps is not long for this world either.  And, although Ukraine is doing good so far, in the long run it is more then likely not going to win alone against Russia.  

So, bringing Ukraine into the EU ultimately means coming to the aid of Ukraine with soldiers on the ground, which could lead to war in Europe.  I can not imagine if Europe comes to aid Ukraine, Belarus and Georgia and other Russian proxy states will continue to sit it out.  But if Europe does not provide aid, in the short run there will be less loss of life but will it embolden Putin and China to push their borders more?  

Which is the lesser evil?  I have no clue. 

The best hope is that eventually the Russian generals and/or Oligarchs start looking around and say, "we cant possibly win if the whole of Europe unites against us, and if we keep this going all of us are going to find ourselves at the end of a rope.  Lets just take this guy out now and be seen as doing the world a favor."    

Anyway, I just cant help but think about the naiveté so prevalent in 1860 in the USA about what our civil war would entail, and wondering if that same naiveté surrounds this decision in Europe.  

[RichG]

11 minutes ago, Kitchen said:

The best hope is that eventually the Russian generals and/or Oligarchs start looking around and say, "we cant possibly win if the whole of Europe unites against us, and if we keep this going all of us are going to find ourselves at the end of a rope.  Lets just take this guy out now and be seen as doing the world a favor."

This feels like the only way this conflict has any prayer of an expeditious end. I wonder if any of them are thinking…we could become the hero’s of the world with one decisive move.

[BEVOSREVENGE]

3 minutes ago, RichG said:

This feels like the only way this conflict has any prayer of an expeditious end. I wonder if any of them are thinking…we could become the hero’s of the world with one decisive move.

Surely, the West's hope is that Putin is dealt with internally.  How long will that take?  How much destruction happens to Ukraine  in the time being?  Who fills the vacuum in a nuclear Russia, if he is gone?

Not sure most of the western world can sit by and watch some of the gruesome stuff that is happening and the only help offered is ammo, weapons, food and money.

The European leadership, thus far, has been impressive.  

18 minutes ago, Kitchen said:

So, bringing Ukraine into the EU ultimately means coming to the aid of Ukraine with soldiers on the ground, which could lead to war in Europe.

The EU has the ability to clear this problem from the air with both manned aircraft, drones and cruise  missiles.  The only ground assets committed, thus far, are those there to protect the Ukrainian president (you will never hear official confirmation of this).

26 minutes ago, Kitchen said:

it embolden Putin and China to push their borders more

Seeing how the world is galvanized against Putin, I am not sure this is making Xi feel froggy about invading any of its desired pieces of the "motherland".  Culturally, I believe they have a long term greedy approach to the future as opposed to Putin's jousting windmills approach.

[Kitchen]

2 hours ago, RichG said:

This feels like the only way this conflict has any prayer of an expeditious end. I wonder if any of them are thinking…we could become the hero’s of the world with one decisive move.

In all honesty, I think this is a fantasy though and eventually becomes a moot point.  After you have been fighting long enough to know you will be executed by your adversary when you stop, there is no point to stop.  This is why the German generals continued fighting at the end of WW2, to protect themselves not the cause. 

 

2 hours ago, BEVOSREVENGE said:

The EU has the ability to clear this problem from the air with both manned aircraft, drones and cruise  missiles.  The only ground assets committed, thus far, are those there to protect the Ukrainian president (you will never hear official confirmation of this).

Seeing how the world is galvanized against Putin, I am not sure this is making Xi feel froggy about invading any of its desired pieces of the "motherland".  Culturally, I believe they have a long term greedy approach to the future as opposed to Putin's jousting windmills approach.

Although I agree with you on China, and I am glad to see the West finally galvanize, I think we need to be cautious about your first statement.  Maybe they do have the fire power to stop this fast, or maybe, just like the North in 1860, we only think they have the fire power to stop this fast.  

Anyway, I do think it is the right thing to do.  But, if I was living in Europe, I would not be celebrating this, but bracing the severe possible outcome.  

[BEVOSREVENGE]

1 minute ago, Kitchen said:

Although I agree with you on China, and I am glad to see the West finally galvanize, I think we need to be cautious about your first statement.  Maybe they do have the fire power to stop this fast, or maybe, just like the North in 1860, we only think they have the fire power to stop this fast.  

Anyway, I do think it is the right thing to do.  But, if I was living in Europe, I would not be celebrating this, but bracing the severe possible outcome.  

Don't think anyone is celebrating anywhere right now, nor should they.

Regarding ending things fast, that had to do with decimating invader forces within Ukraine.  However, doing so would likely enlarge the battlefield beyond just Ukraine.  It also humiliates the director of the invaders and what could come next is not a topic anyone would want to entertain.  

Something to consider:  https://www.globalr2p.org/what-is-r2p/

 

[helix]

Best solution elliminate Putin at his Dacha.

[Ken Gargett]

21 minutes ago, helix said:

Best solution elliminate Putin at his Dacha.

sadly, that sort of stuff is largely hollywood driven. if it comes internally, then unless it is some lone wolf who somehow beats all the security (so one in a squillion), then it has to be coordinated and broadly supported among the generals and higher powers. who have to believe that they will then have overwhelming support from the russian people - they would be all too aware of what can happen without any of that. anyone hearing that there is any sort of groundswell for that? i'd suggest nothing but a deafening silence. i suspect that the generals are mostly of a generation. like putin, who remember a time when russia was a world power and held control over huge areas. suspect more than a few share putin's view that it would be nice to have them back. 

if it comes from outside, then it is basically an act of war. and while we might think it a good thing, i suspect that the russian people, even those not overly fond of putin, would take it badly. the old 'i can insult members of my family but you as an outsider cannot' argument ramped up a squillion times. it would also open the west to various reprisals. we'd be a touch miffed if the russians assassinated any of our leaders but if we have taken out theirs, what can you expect. have a look at various leaders of aggressor nations in wars or where there was massive loss of life and ask why they were not taken out? hitler, stalin, mao, and so on. pol pot died in his sleep. even idi amin died in saudi luxury of kidney failure. if it was that easy...

as for joining the EU, you have to see that as more symbolic than anything else. certainly isn't NATO. they have various treaties which raise the consideration of cooperation in defence and support and supplying materials (PESCO? - sounds like a dodgy fish). given the rather bureaucratic nature of the organisation, this isn't going to be the avengers suddenly touching down. the ukraine will be lucky if this amounts to anything more than a strong finger-wagging. if the EU was serious, this has been coming for so long, why did they wait until now? it does not scream the acts of an entity that will save the day. 

[amberleaf]

I only realised today how this conflict is yet more bad news for Cuba. Russia is a source of aid and their visitors helped keep tourism alive on the island throughout Covid. The closing of air corridors and the plunging Rouble will put an end to that.