Ukraine

[Paladin865]

The Ukrainians are showing brass ones, why not the rest of the world?

[Webbo]

31 minutes ago, Corylax18 said:

I paid .99 cents a gallon during the height of the pandemic, we're just not used to prices like that here. Pumps  automatically shut off at $99 here, that would only get me about half a tank at $5.00 a gallon. 😪

More or less US$10 per gallon here in the UK right now.

[BEVOSREVENGE]

32 minutes ago, Corylax18 said:

We've got more than enough oil here, thanks.

That is a partially true statement.  We have plenty of light sweet crude.  Heavier stuff like the Canadian oil sands are mixed with our light sweet crude to resemble a mix of mid east oil.  Our refineries were built to process mid east oil.  Retooling is expensive and you take out production when you retool.  Additionally, getting a new refinery permitted and built is more than an act of congress difficult.

Ask @SignalJoe, he makes sure the ones we have don't fall apart and/or explode.

Canadian oil sands still get to the US via truck vs pipeline, which is dumb (inefficient and more dangerous).

[Corylax18]

1 minute ago, Webbo said:

More or less US$10 per gallon here in the UK right now.

Ouch. There would be anarchy. 

1 minute ago, BEVOSREVENGE said:

That is a partially true statement.  We have plenty of light sweet crude.  Heavier stuff like the Canadian oil sands are mixed with our light sweet crude to resemble a mix of mid east oil.  Our refineries were built to process mid east oil.  Retooling is expensive and you take out production when you retool.  Additionally, getting a new refinery permitted and built is more than an act of congress difficult.

Ask @SignalJoe, he makes sure the ones we have don't fall apart and/or explode.

Canadian oil sands still get to the US via truck vs pipeline, which is dumb (inefficient and more dangerous).

This is what needs to change. Ive understood the basics of what you detailed above, but your description helps crystalize it. Its insane that we cant refine the majority of our own oil and ahvent been able to for a long time. Politicians chirp about energy independence all day, but most refuse to do anything to actually solve the problem. 

Its funny how the loudest supporters of cutting off Russian Oil imports are senators in the largest oil/fossil fuel producing states. No offers to build refineries, but they're happy to put their rubber stamp on a supply pinch.

[Chas.Alpha]

1 hour ago, Corylax18 said:

We've got more than enough oil here, thanks. We don't have nearly enough refining capacity though. The Keystone pipeline isn't a refinery, so it wont open up the refining bottleneck, in any # of years. Its a great way for Canadian Oil sand producers to get their crude into our system, so that it can be exported. It wont alleviate $5.00 a gallon gas in the US though, despite what some politicians and other people with financial interests in the project might tell you. 

I'm not necessarily against building it, but I really don't think it factors into the calculus in this situation. 

Probably the most astute comment on the subject thus far. Those that watch the "News" here in the US might not know this... 🙄

[rckymtn22]

57 minutes ago, Corylax18 said:

Ouch. There would be anarchy. 

This is what needs to change. Ive understood the basics of what you detailed above, but your description helps crystalize it. Its insane that we cant refine the majority of our own oil and ahvent been able to for a long time. Politicians chirp about energy independence all day, but most refuse to do anything to actually solve the problem. 

Its funny how the loudest supporters of cutting off Russian Oil imports are senators in the largest oil/fossil fuel producing states. No offers to build refineries, but they're happy to put their rubber stamp on a supply pinch.

The whole NIMBY thing is big too. Don't want a dirty refinery here!

[SpecialK]

18 hours ago, Corylax18 said:

Its funny how the loudest supporters of cutting off Russian Oil imports are senators in the largest oil/fossil fuel producing states. No offers to build refineries, but they're happy to put their rubber stamp on a supply pinch.

I think they may be playing the long game to get  the misery index up so far that Biden / Green agenda democrats have to relent and knowing they wont' cause enough political misery to defeat them... 

[Webbo]

 

[TheCigarslayer]

On 3/3/2022 at 6:10 PM, Corylax18 said:

Ouch. There would be anarchy. 

Already up to nearly $5 in the NYC metro, and seeing reports in CA over $7. I expect it to keep going up. We went from 3.15->4.75 in 2 days. 

 

 

[NSXCIGAR]

On 3/3/2022 at 1:40 PM, 99call said:

I guess my point was the interview I saw, was very much suggesting that fusion had been dragging it's heels, (the scientists themselves has suggested progress had been slow and disapointing)  but recent new developments had shown signs a corner had been turned. 

Fusion looks to be past the theoretical stage and into the engineering phase but we're talking at least a generation away and probably longer. 

Nuclear would solve the problem now. I'm not sure that there are any compelling arguments against Gen 4 nuclear. 

[99call]

1 hour ago, NSXCIGAR said:

Nuclear would solve the problem now. I'm not sure that there are any compelling arguments against Gen 4 nuclear. 

I find it really interesting with regards to re-investing in Nuclear, that the topic of attacks on prospective plants, never seems to come up.     People opposed to it, are always very concerned about natural disasters, or human error.........but foreign enemies looking to attack plants as a devastating act of war never seems to come up.        Whats recently happened in Ukraine seems to be a very obvious tool of war

I agree, until fusion becomes a reality,  a mix of conventional nuclear, and green renewables is the obvious path forwards. Even  environmental protesters, (who have previously been very negative toward nuclear) are now seeing it as the rational path. 

[NSXCIGAR]

20 hours ago, 99call said:

but foreign enemies looking to attack plants as a devastating act of war never seems to come up. 

I don't believe that's an issue with Gen 4. They are effectively meltdown-proof (and, in fact, there is almost no waste). I don't believe there's ever been an event with a Gen 3 plant let alone a Gen 4. Gen 3 may be susceptible to attack but I don't believe Gen 4 is. 

Also, operating under the assumption that an enemy's goal is to occupy a particular area I'm not exactly sure how likely it would be for an enemy to target a nuclear site for attack as it would render the area uninhabitable. 

As far as the renewables the problem is that for the forseeable future their inefficiency results in reliance on fossil which ultimately means energy dependency. Asia will always be drilling and ready to provide oil and gas to windmill countries like Germany that for decades had deluded themselves into believing renewables were viable in the near term. I think this whole Ukraine event has slapped the developed world in the face in terms of economic independence for critical industries as a national security matter. 

Nuclear solves all of this within a decade. Low cost, zero emissions, no waste and energy independence for all. And the cost for nuclear is low enough that there won't be that many entrenched interests to resist the adoption of fusion when it arrives. 

 

On 3/4/2022 at 9:26 AM, Corylax18 said:

I'm not saying Fusion power will never happen, but "Lets make the Sun" just seems like peak arrogance from our species.

All I'll say is that there is much more evidence that humans can create a star than there is to suggest that humans can control the climate of an entire planet. 

[Chas.Alpha]

1 hour ago, NSXCIGAR said:

All I'll say is that there is much more evidence that humans can create a star than there is to suggest that humans can control the climate of an entire planet. 

I think there is quite a bit of evidence that humans can control the poisoning of our atmosphere. I saw a nice photo from Darjeeling during the COVID shutdown where they could actually see Annapurna. Hadn’t been seen for some 40 years...

[Ken Gargett]

1 hour ago, Chas.Alpha said:

I think there is quite a bit of evidence that humans can control the poisoning of our atmosphere. I saw a nice photo from Darjeeling during the COVID shutdown where they could actually see Annapurna. Hadn’t been seen for some 40 years...

the photos of annapurna and the himalayas are, i would suggest, evidence of the opposite. that we cannot control it. or much else.

i saw some of those photos - not sure if the same but no doubt similar. amazing. you'd think it would have given us all the incentive we'd need but you can bet it will make no difference. the only reason we could see such photos is because covid cleared the streets, stopped the cars and the pollution. shows how quickly the planet might recover, or at least parts of it, if we gave it the chance. 

the odds are a million to one that we will do nothing and that things will be back to what they were before we know it and that they will simply continue to get worse until we kill the planet. 

 

1 hour ago, Chas.Alpha said:

Not sure how to read this one, Ken. On one hand, you seem to agree that there is nothing (we) humans can do to stop climate altering emissions, but on the other hand think that doing nothing will somehow work itself out?

I may have missed your point.

we might be at cross purposes here. i took the post to which i responded to suggest that the photos showed that humans can control the poisoning of the atmosphere. my response meant to say that the photo shows that it can be done but that i do not believe for a second that it will be done. and i am most definitely not of the belief that it will work itself out. 

[Chas.Alpha]

1 minute ago, Ken Gargett said:

we might be at cross purposes here. i took the post to which i responded to suggest that the photos showed that humans can control the poisoning of the atmosphere. my response meant to say that the photo shows that it can be done but that i do not believe for a second that it will be done. and i am most definitely not of the belief that it will work itself out. 

I was just editing that! I was getting to the point that yes WE CAN do something. The post that we were replying to suggested that it’s all a “hoax”. A very popular theory here in the U.S. It reminds me of the 1st time I was in Havana. The smell was something familiar... Leaded gasoline. US cities used to smell that way, before 1975

[Ken Gargett]

1 minute ago, Chas.Alpha said:

I was just editing that! I was getting to the point that yes WE CAN do something. The post that we were replying to suggested that it’s all a “hoax”. A very popular theory here in the U.S. It reminds me of the 1st time I was in Havana. The smell was something familiar... Leaded gasoline. US cities used to smell that way, before 1975

yes we can. but will we? i do not believe so. at least not enough and not soon enough.

i don't have kids but if i did, i would be frantic for their future. it is beyond me that so many deny/ignore/deflect from where the planet is so obviously headed. but best we not go too far down that rabbithole here or there will be bans!! 

[El Presidente]

14 minutes ago, Ken Gargett said:

i don't have kids but if i did, i would be frantic for their future.

 

....oh so would I     

[Ken Gargett]

9 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

 

....oh so would I     

oh seriously? it is a great testament to ben's character that he has overcome the obstacles life threw in front of him. namely you! 

[NSXCIGAR]

2 hours ago, Chas.Alpha said:

I think there is quite a bit of evidence that humans can control the poisoning of our atmosphere. I saw a nice photo from Darjeeling during the COVID shutdown where they could actually see Annapurna. Hadn’t been seen for some 40 years...

Are we talking about controlling pollution or are we talking about controlling climate? 

The idea that there is a direct, i.e. causal relationship between controlling emissions and controlling climate does not exist. It is only theory and modelling. A classic case of correlation vs. causation. 

And for Ken: I am not ruling out that it is causal--only that it has not been proven as a scientific certainty. 

Fusion has been proven to be possible. Stars have been created in the lab. As I said, we're past the theoretical stage and into the engineering phase. From the most recent news, it appears that it's going to require quantum computing in order to make the nanosecond adjustments to the magnetic fields necessary to sustain the reaction which is quite a ways off. 

2 hours ago, Ken Gargett said:

the odds are a million to one that we will do nothing and that things will be back to what they were before we know it and that they will simply continue to get worse until we kill the planet. 

I agree. Developing countries aren't giving up fossils any time soon. That's why the only realistic and sensible course forward is nuclear and ultimately fusion. 

And the planet isn't going to "die". It's been through worse than us. Humans on the other hand...

 

[Ken Gargett]

55 minutes ago, NSXCIGAR said:

And the planet isn't going to "die". It's been through worse than us. Humans on the other hand...

sorry, that is exactly what i meant. 

[BrightonCorgi]

5 hours ago, NSXCIGAR said:

The idea that there is a direct, i.e. causal relationship between controlling emissions and controlling climate does not exist. It is only theory and modelling. A classic case of correlation vs. causation. 

And for Ken: I am not ruling out that it is causal--only that it has not been proven as a scientific certainty.

My dad is a retired Geologist.  Total liberal with dozens of publications & presidential awards in his subject manner.  He says the very similar. 

Our impact on the planet in geologic time will be hard measure.  Our existence will be a couple of blinks in the planetary history.

[SpecialK]

3 hours ago, BrightonCorgi said:

Our impact on the planet in geologic time will be hard measure.  Our existence will be a couple of blinks in the planetary history.

 

 

[Ken Gargett]

10 hours ago, BrightonCorgi said:

My dad is a retired Geologist.  Total liberal with dozens of publications & presidential awards in his subject manner.  He says the very similar. 

Our impact on the planet in geologic time will be hard measure.  Our existence will be a couple of blinks in the planetary history.

i think that your father is a very wise man. the problem is that because he comes from a scientific perspective, many will automatically dismiss whatever he has to say. would-be politicians, dimwitted and uneducated editors, tv talk show hosts, fruitbat keyboard warriors from their grandmother's basement are all presumed by many to know far more than scientists. 

we live in a very strange world. 

[Chas.Alpha]

1 hour ago, Ken Gargett said:

we live in a very strange world. 

When I spoke of the Indians being able to see the Himalayan mountains for the first time in decades, I was referring to the pollution that we humans pump into our atmosphere on a daily basis. Is that amount of sunlight reflecting particles and gas causing a change in global climate? I don’t know, but a lot of climatologist seem to think so. It certainly isn’t helping matters any.

[Ken Gargett]

7 minutes ago, Chas.Alpha said:

When I spoke of the Indians being able to see the Himalayan mountains for the first time in decades, I was referring to the pollution that we humans pump into our atmosphere on a daily basis. Is that amount of sunlight reflecting particles and gas causing a change in global climate? I don’t know, but a lot of climatologist seem to think so. It certainly isn’t helping matters any.

yes. i can remember seeing them from kathmandu in the late 80s. extraordinary sight. you were lucky to see across a street in delhi and a few other places. sad to think that it is likely that most off humanity will never have the chance. but we do seem to have strayed from russians invading the ukraine.