vaccines v herd immunity


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1 hour ago, Philc2001 said:

It's intriguing how this topic has become such a politically divisive issue. I wonder if that sort of resistance existed in the 1300s when the Black Death was wiping out 1/3 of the human species (estimated 75 million to 200 million people died). If it were not for technological advancements, COVID and many other plagues throughout history would have decimated the world population

COVID isnt nearly as lethal as any of the plagues. It's pretty much the flu except we have no resistance and we didnt have vaccines ready. As for why this is politically divisive, is this disease major enough to warrant what are pretty extreme and unprecedented measures? Perhaps it is, perhaps it's not. With a mortality rate of 2%, which doesnt actually represent the average person's chance of death, that's quite a bit lower than the plague wiping out over half of Europe's population. The average person if they're healthy has only a fraction of a percent chance of dying, really the group which needs to be protected are the elderly, who make the disease appear to be statistically far more lethal than it actually is.

Compare this to the spanish flu, which targeted young adults in their prime, I dont think this outbreak is nearly as bad, yet our reaction to it has been much stronger.

My question is why we couldnt quarantine just the elderly who were most at risk and legitimately need to be protected from this virus, while allowing healthy young and middle aged adults to continue on as is. This way our economies wouldnt be crippled. 

This isnt to say that the economy is more important than people's lives, but people's livelihoods have been ruined not even by the virus, but by the overreaction of our leaders. I doubt it was an easy choice, but still, I dont think we need to grind our society to a halt for every new bug that comes out

 

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Stop the BS and get the Jab.

Do you enjoy your social security checks or will you in the future?( I never will) Cause I sure love giving a couple hundred bucks a paycheck to the least personally responsible generation in history.

good post. i am old enough (just) to remember, as a young kid, the screaming and outrage when seats belts became mandatory (i'm sure if you told a lot of young people about the resistance to wearing s

2 hours ago, FrancisK7 said:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/fully-vaccinated-people.html

There have been anecdotal reports of vaccinated people catching the virus more than 2 weeks after their first dose, and of people having COVID, beating it, then catching it again, but there's not enough scientific data to conclude the safety level of transmission after vaccination. 

Masks are here to stay for some time I think. 

 

 

As you said, belief doesn't count.  So much that has been surmised (such as this), has frequently proved to be dead wrong.  Yet the scorn from certain segments remains constant.  It's not only losing its potency, it's creating the type of apathy and resentment from the masses that will have the opposite effect of what's intended by it.  Human nature.  And that's why I think absent something more compelling, masks are on their way out, at least in the U.S.  Hell, they already are in many areas like mine.       

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2 minutes ago, FrancisK7 said:

Measures like masks only work if a majority of people have a social conscience and are capable of empathy, so YMMV.

Funny thing, many that oppose mask mandates say the exact same thing.  Perhaps that's the the larger problem.      

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5 minutes ago, FrancisK7 said:

Measures like masks only work if a majority of people have a social conscience and are capable of empathy

I find the whole discussion mildly irritating--I judge people by the entirety of their actions, day after day.  Do they keep their word?   Do they treat people with respect?  etc etc

I have found no correlation between either good or bad people and mask wearing.

I just follow the old "when in Rome do as the Romans do" rule.   It is getting more difficult since some of the Romans are wearing masks and some are not.....

😉

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3 hours ago, FrancisK7 said:

Measures like masks only work if a majority of people have a social conscience and are capable of empathy, so YMMV.

It is confusing and frustrating that some folks will make a stand and throw a fit in public against mask wearing in a crowded airplane, yet they abide by the seatbelt rule. 

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Seeing the responses here makes me happy to be a healthcare provider.

Some of yall are going to be making me rich. I need to build a cave humidor and stock it. My latest acquisition is nearly full.

Next week the town nearest me is having a huge biker rally for 5 days. The business owners sponsoring it feel just awful for the other businesses which have suffered. Not for the all of deaths we've had in their tiny blip on the map, nor for the numerous costly hospital treatments and extended stays. I'm excited. There was a lull.

Thank you all. Thank you. 

 

Edit: I'm so glad to live out in the middle of a desert. 

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5 hours ago, Thatsze said:

COVID isnt nearly as lethal as any of the plagues. It's pretty much the flu except we have no resistance and we didnt have vaccines ready. As for why this is politically divisive, is this disease major enough to warrant what are pretty extreme and unprecedented measures? Perhaps it is, perhaps it's not. With a mortality rate of 2%, which doesnt actually represent the average person's chance of death, that's quite a bit lower than the plague wiping out over half of Europe's population. The average person if they're healthy has only a fraction of a percent chance of dying, really the group which needs to be protected are the elderly, who make the disease appear to be statistically far more lethal than it actually is.

It is not like a flu, and it is not limited to the elderly. It's actually surprising to hear that analogy still, considering what we have learned over the past year. You may be underestimating its lethality, and we are still learning about the long-term health implications of people who were infected but haven't died from it.

Although fewer people have died from COVID than in major historic plagues (at least so far) I believe that is largely because of our coordinated global reaction to it, as well as the immense healthcare heroics that saved millions of people from dying.  Look at what is currently happening in India, over 400K new infections daily (which is grossly undercounted), crematoriums running 24/7, people dying in the streets waiting to be admitted and hospitals completely overwhelmed, out of PPE, oxygen and other supplies. That could easily be happening across the entire world.

Consider how many more millions would have died if hospitals didn't intubate and use oxygen, or if social distancing and other precautions had not been implemented. The pandemic would be ravaging every continent, worse than the 1918 epidemic given how widespread COVID is geographically across the planet. Had it broken out 100 or 200 years ago, it would be far more lethal.

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10 hours ago, FrancisK7 said:

There have been anecdotal reports of vaccinated people catching the virus more than 2 weeks after their first dose


anecdotal: 
(of an account) not necessarily true or reliable, because based on personal accounts rather than facts or research.
"while there was much anecdotal evidence there was little hard fact"
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https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/science/science-briefs/fully-vaccinated-people.html
There have been anecdotal reports of vaccinated people catching the virus more than 2 weeks after their first dose, and of people having COVID, beating it, then catching it again, but there's not enough scientific data to conclude the safety level of transmission after vaccination. 
Masks are here to stay for some time I think. 
 
 
This doesn't mean vaccinated people still spread the virus, “Breakthrough” cases of COVID-19 among vaccinated people are expected.

It doesn't mean that the vaccines currently in use are not highly effective.

They are, just not 100 percent effective.

So, yes, you can still get sick even if you’re vaccinated, but it’s exceedingly rare.
According to the CDC, 87 Million Americans had received the COVID-19 vaccine as of April 20, 2021. Among vaccinated people, there were 7,157 breakthrough cases, with fewer than 500 hospitalizations and 88 deaths.

The cases are about 1/100th of 1 percent of those vaccinated.




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Well said, @mprach024. I would also add that while the economic impact of shutdowns has been massive, it will end up paling in comparison to the long term recession/depression brought on by the financial crisis of ‘08/09. We’re already seeing a tightening labor market, GDP and earnings growth, and wage inflation. The economic impact of a prolonged pandemic with more casualties, more highly infectious variants, and an incapacitated healthcare system would have been much worse.

In hindsight, more strict quarantine and lockdown restrictions earlier on would have helped stop community spread in the US and allowed the economy to fully open sooner. Avoiding restrictions in the name of short term economic impact is penny wise and pound foolish.

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5 hours ago, Thatsze said:

Many of your points were similar to Ken's so some of my responses will be there. I never said it only affected the elderly, I just said it affected them disproportionately. As for me underestimating the lethality, my 90 year old grandma caught it and was perfectly fine, granted she probably got lucky, but when you have another guy likening it to the plague I'm gonna call bullshit. 

 

India is a third world country. Additionally, I'm not saying the government should have done nothing, but I think they took it too far, when you look at the relief bills that have been passed not to help people suffering from covid, but for people suffering under the lockdown, yes I think it is too much.

 

As for how many more would have died if people didnt have oxygen or ppe, what the hell is your point here? I'm not saying our hospitals shouldn't be properly equipped to handle this, I just dont think we should cripple our own economy.

As for how covid has spread worldwide unlike the spanish flu, two caveats. One, global trade was much less significant, the world is far more interconnected today than it has ever been, naturally diseases would spread more quickly. If the world economy were more similar to that of the 1910s, that is with imperialist protectionism, (remember at this time all of Europe's empires were still well) the disease wouldnt have spread as quickly. Secondly, it was during ww1, which limited trade even more. Most goods only flowed between the belligerent powers.

Finally, pardon my French, but no sh*t the disease woulda been more lethal 100 years ago. What the hell is your point here. 

 

I'd like to apologize for my aggressive posturing, however I dont think you really understand what I'm trying to say here, nor do I think you have much respect for me, so why should I have much for you. That is all

Perhaps take a deep breath and take a little more time to digest before you unleash your temper. 

The reason I brought up plagues is because COVID-19 would easily have been deemed a plague in a different era if we weren't as advanced in DNA sequencing and medical diagnosis as we are today. Or flipping it around, plagues that killed many millions of people centuries ago would be far less lethal today with our current capabilities. Thus, COVID-19 is a relative cousin to a modern day plague in context of the global reach, the number of people it has infected and the number that have died. The point is that the massive coordinated effort of the governments, scientists, and the medical community is what saved millions from death, and not because the virus is non-lethal.

You may dismiss India as a third-world country if that somehow drives your point to something. Indian leaders made a miscalculation, they incorrectly assumed they had evaded the pandemic or believed they had some measure of immunity against the virus because their infection rate was so low last summer. So they let their guard down, lifted the social distancing restrictions, and opened their economy back up. Only now they realize they were far better off with the economic impacts of the shutdowns then compared to the massive and rising death toll, and more shutdowns as a result. It is a classic case study in the making.

Again, the point is I believe you may be underestimating the criticality of the virus, and overreacting to the shutdowns. 

 

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@Thatsze

No one is more moral here.  Being here is a privilege, to keep your privilege you need to follow the rules.  

Here they are:

If you’re looking for a fight or an emotional reaction to you cursing (we all know what your dashes and asterisks mean), you won’t get one.  Keep it respectful and your points will carry more weight.  Hope this helps

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58 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

US Politics

Language

Do better .

As an American the political free content here is something that makes this place somewhat of a haven for me in the last six months, where I can peacefully read and learn and laugh. I really appreciate the environment that has been fostered here.

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4 hours ago, Ken Gargett said:

good post. i am old enough (just) to remember, as a young kid, the screaming and outrage when seats belts became mandatory (i'm sure if you told a lot of young people about the resistance to wearing seat belts, they'd think you stark staring). the greatest infringement of human rights imaginable. government bullying. people claiming that they would never wear one. the difference this made to the death toll in car accidents was so dramatic that this seems bizarre, even writing about it now. now, it is something we do without thinking. you get in a car and you put it on. an involuntary action. the world has not crumbled.

but get vaccinations to protect yourself, your family, your community? the greatest infringement of human rights imaginable. government bullying. what a load of rubbish. it really is time an awful lot of self-entitled dimwits grew up. 

if there are medical reasons you can't be vaccinated then of course, don't be. but the 'i won't have government dictating to me' argument is beyond ridiculous. never a problem for the same people if the government does something they agree with but if not, suddenly it is 1984. so too, the 'i'll make a decision as to whether or not it benefits me' argument is just as ridiculous. anyone who thinks that they have the freedom to do that at will really needs to take off their tin hat and join the real world. personally, i'd be far better off if i did not have to pay tax. that would be to my benefit. but it is not my choice. 

none of this is to suggest that governments always get it right or should not be held to account. quite the contrary. but we seem to have so many people determined to ignore the science. or create their own. we could start on climate change but perhaps best left for another day. 

the medical risk? well i'm told that there are a tiny percentage of car accidents where a seat belt can contribute to injuries (no idea if that is true). i suspect probably a similar percentage to a bad reaction to a vaccine. in other words, very very small. 

as rob has said, in australia we have the luxury of not being in any rush, not that our government has exactly rolled out the vaccines at speed, and can be more certain about the shots and from which provider. and as someone who has had clots, that is something i am watching. but otherwise, not getting the shot is so utterly selfish and beyond comprehension. 

Honestly, you can't understand why people have a problem with putting what is rightly termed an experimental vaccine into their bodies?  Selfish?  For the record, I've taken the vaccine.  But I loathe the moral judgment passed on those that question it by those that do not.  While the risks of dying from Covid if contracted can be assessed statistically, the long term effects of the vaccine (if any) are not known.  And government fallibility and politics most certainly plays a role.  The swine flu vaccine debacle comes to mind.  Hell, we have elected officials pushing it now that said they wouldn't take it if Trump said to.  Officials have no more trust from their opponents now than their supporters did for their opponents then.  But more than anything the name-calling has to stop.  If you're trying to convince people you've got it right, it's totally counterproductive.                 

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1 hour ago, Ginseng said:

This discussion is pushing into the realm of the personal. Let's be mindful of each other, people. We need not accept each other's viewpoints but we can acknowledge them.

Agreed :thumbsup:

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