Light at the end of the tunnel ?

[Nino]

Good news an hour ago and the stock markets are exploding - Pfizer/BioNTech announce a 90% effective vaccine for Covid-19 and will request emergency approval next week.

BioNTech share price went 24% up last 90 minutes, the DAX 6%, IBEX 9%.

Especially happy as BioNTech is a "local" company from Mainz, around the corner from where I live.

Details :

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/09/health/covid-vaccine-pfizer.html?campaign_id=60&emc=edit_na_20201109&instance_id=0&nl=breaking-news&ref=cta&regi_id=83141946&segment_id=44009&user_id=20e2ef107d129c8068f6a6f86ee4c0a5

"Work on the vaccine began in Mainz, Germany, in late January, when Ugur Sahin, the chief executive and co-founder of BioNTech, read about the virus in the Lancet that filled him with dread. “I almost instantly knew that this would affect us,” Mr. Sahin said in an interview. That same day, the first European cases were detected, in France.

Mr. Sahin assembled a 40-person team to work on the vaccine. Many employees canceled vacations and Mr. Sahin authorized overtime pay. They called it Project Lightspeed.

BioNTech used a technology that had never been approved for use in people. It takes genetic material called messenger RNA and injects it into muscle cells, which treat it like instructions for building a protein — a protein found on the surface of the coronavirus. The proteins then stimulate the immune system and are believed to result in long-lasting protection against the virus. Other companies, including Moderna, are also using messenger RNA technology.

BioNTech quickly identified 20 vaccine candidates, and began testing them on rodents. But the company lacked the experience and resources to rapidly conduct a major clinical trial. So Mr. Sahin called Pfizer. The two companies had been working to develop a flu vaccine since 2018, and within a day of Mr. Sahin calling Dr. Jansen at Pfizer, the companies agreed to partner on a coronavirus vaccine. In mid-March, the companies announced their partnership.

After early human trials, they determined that two vaccine candidates produced a robust immune response, including antibodies against the virus and powerful immune cells known as T cells. They chose the one with fewer side effects to start a trial with more than 30,000 volunteers in the U.S., Argentina, Brazil and Germany. In September the company expanded the trial to 44,000 participants."

More details :

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54873105

[Drguano]

Good news! We still have a ways to go. If approved, get the doses to the clinics, get people to get inoculated and then dance in the streets!  

I hope there are minimal side effects...

[dangolf18]

Great news. Such odd timing though in my opinion. Right after the election....?

[SigmundChurchill]

I got an email about a week ago that said that we would have the vaccine by late November-early December, and they wanted to know if I would be willing to get it when it comes in.  I said yes.  I figured I have a lot more at risk from the disease than from the vaccine.  I know there are 2 companies that are just about ready, but the email didn't say which vaccine they would be giving me.

[BellevilleMXZ]

On 11/9/2020 at 11:40 AM, SigmundChurchill said:

I got an email about a week ago that said that we would have the vaccine by late November-early December, and they wanted to know if I would be willing to get it when it comes in.  I said yes.  I figured I have a lot more at risk from the disease than from the vaccine.  I know there are 2 companies that are just about ready, but the email didn't say which vaccine they would be giving me.

How are things where u are? I always app. the updates. I dont believe a thing I see on the news. 

[SigmundChurchill]

13 hours ago, BellevilleMXZ said:

How are things where u are? I always app. the updates. I dont believe a thing I see on the news. 

There is definitely a big uptick in cases that started in mid September, but this time it is different than last time.  Back in March, it was like being in a war zone.  Intubating 20 patients a day, with people dying right and left.  Then by June, COVID disappeared as quickly as it came.  This time, the hospital has been quietly filing up with COVID patients, but we were only intubating 1 or 2 per week.  About 2 weeks ago, we started intubating 1 or 2 per day.  And now, we are intubating 2-3 per day.  The mortality rate is much lower as well.  Keep in mind, that we only intubate the patients that are near death, and will definitely die without it.

Are we better at treating it or is it that the less virulent strains are more prevalent now?  Probably a bit of both.  We are definitely better at keeping people from getting to the terminal stage, but I have a feeling we are also dealing with weaker strains now as well.  We are still running our operating rooms at full capacity with elective surgeries, so that is a good sign.  At least for now.

I have been reading about other cities with overwhelmed hospitals right now, like Salt Lake City, and I definitively feel for them because we went through that already.  So our current experience is not universal.  It is really bad out there, depending on where you are located.

[Bijan]

1 hour ago, SigmundChurchill said:

There is definitely a big uptick in cases that started in mid September, but this time it is different than last time.  Back in March, it was like being in a war zone.  Intubating 20 patients a day, with people dying right and left.  Then by June, COVID disappeared as quickly as it came.  This time, the hospital has been quietly filing up with COVID patients, but were only intubating 1 or 2 per week.  About 2 weeks ago, we started intubating 1 or 2 per day.  And now, we are intubating 2-3 per day.  The mortality rate is much lower as well.  Keep in mind, that we only intubate the patients that are near death, and will definitely die without it.

Are we better at treating it or is it that the less virulent strains are more prevalent now?  Probably a bit of both.  We are definitely better at keeping people from getting to the terminal stage, but I have a feeling we are also dealing with weaker strains now as well.  We are still running out operating rooms at full capacity with elective surgeries, so that is a good sign.  At least for now.

I have been reading about other cities with overwhelmed hospitals right now, like Salt Lake City, and I definitively feel for them because we went through that already.  So our current experience is not universal.  It is really bad out there, depending on where you are located.

If you're in New York then a lot of people have got it the first time around, so there's a degree of herd immunity (I think NYC was 10-20% infected), multiplied by the fact that the people most likely to get it (and most likely to transmit it) were more likely to get it the the first time around (greatly reducing the R factor since less superspreaders).

Combine that with the fact that testing was much worse the first time around, and bad cases out of total cases looked much worse then, but deaths are much lower now.

Up here in Canada we have the change in testing effect, but not so much the herd immunity.

[mprach024]

We know so little yet, our amazing doctors have gone through hell to keep as many alive as possible.  My hats off and great thanks to the ones that stood in ERs and did what they could on minimal knowledge with the fear they themselves could get it at any moment.  I’ve worn N95s, not comfortable and can’t imagine running around in a 14 hour shift in one.  I’m sure a lot of lessons learned, coupled with the fact we are finally testing at high numbers and people being smarter (remember the spring breakers?) has something to do with mortality rates dropping.  All I know is this will be studied from a health, economic, and sociological stand point for decades to come.  I’m sure we’ve got some docs/nurses here, to you I say bless you all and stay safe.

[Lunettesman]

Sweden didn't need a lockdown to see the light... Neither a vaccine! This is a joke.

[Ken Gargett]

On 11/10/2020 at 2:21 AM, dangolf18 said:

Great news. Such odd timing though in my opinion. Right after the election....?

karma?

[Ken Gargett]

8 minutes ago, Lunettesman said:

Sweden didn't need a lockdown to see the light... Neither a vaccine! This is a joke.

i know a lot of differing opinions on this and sweden has been discussed at length, here and elsewhere, but the latest figures are that sweden has had 162,000 cases and 6,057 deaths. as you note, they didn't go the way of the lockdown.

if you look at the three neighbouring scandinavian countries, they went with lockdowns (i'm sure we have members who can more accurately attest to what was happening but my friends from finland were telling me that the problem, even with the lockdowns, was infections coming from sweden - without those, the figures would have been even more stark).

together, the other three nations have around 22 mill population. sweden has 10 million. and yet the figures for the other three nations are - 

norway - 25,000 cases and 285 deaths.

finland - 18,000 cases and 363 deaths.

denmark - 56,000 cases and 750 deaths. 

so 162,000 cases and 6,057 deaths opposed to 99,000 cases and 1,398 deaths, yet they have well over twice the population. would seem to be rather compelling evidence at this stage. 

not sure the families of all of the deceased would be seeing it as a joke. perhaps sweden might have been better advised to go with the lockdown. 

as for a vaccine, if we look just at the USA, there are around one quarter of a million americans dead. i wonder what they and their families would think about a vaccine? whether they would think one was needed. 

[GP]

Sweden didn't need a lockdown to see the light... Neither a vaccine! This is a joke.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/sweden-brings-in-regional-measures-cases-surge-2020-11%3famp

One of the highest death rates in the world from Covid, no joke


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Meklown]

15 minutes ago, Ken Gargett said:

would seem to be rather compelling evidence at this stage. 

As controversial a politician as he is, I have to admire Boris for backtracking on their initial "herd immunity" plan and trying to implement lockdown for the UK. It takes a man of guts to stand down from their position, effectively admit that they were wrong, and do such a dramatic u-turn. You become a very high profile laughing stock. Yet he did that to save lives in his country. Of course, he blamed the conflicting science at the beginning, botched the whole lockdown implementation, made many other mistakes along the way .... but I say credit where it's due for this particular correction. 

[Nino]

1 hour ago, Ken Gargett said:

not sure the families of all of the deceased would be seeing it as a joke. perhaps sweden might have been better advised to go with the lockdown. 

as for a vaccine, if we look just at the USA, there are around one quarter of a million americans dead. i wonder what they and their families would think about a vaccine? whether they would think one was needed. 

This  ^^^

[SGD316]

There's still a ways to go in the study itself. They want to achieve 50 more infection and extrapolate out but the early data is very promising. Also, it's not political. Pfizer is not part of Warp Speed and took no government aide. 

In a perfect world where everything works, production and distribution ramp up in early 2021, medical staff and the vulnerable get it first in the Spring and its available to the general populace in the Summer. If all goes well, the world starts to return to normal in Fall 2021. 

God's speed to all. 

[BellevilleMXZ]

11 hours ago, SigmundChurchill said:

There is definitely a big uptick in cases that started in mid September, but this time it is different than last time.  Back in March, it was like being in a war zone.  Intubating 20 patients a day, with people dying right and left.  Then by June, COVID disappeared as quickly as it came.  This time, the hospital has been quietly filing up with COVID patients, but were only intubating 1 or 2 per week.  About 2 weeks ago, we started intubating 1 or 2 per day.  And now, we are intubating 2-3 per day.  The mortality rate is much lower as well.  Keep in mind, that we only intubate the patients that are near death, and will definitely die without it.

Are we better at treating it or is it that the less virulent strains are more prevalent now?  Probably a bit of both.  We are definitely better at keeping people from getting to the terminal stage, but I have a feeling we are also dealing with weaker strains now as well.  We are still running out operating rooms at full capacity with elective surgeries, so that is a good sign.  At least for now.

I have been reading about other cities with overwhelmed hospitals right now, like Salt Lake City, and I definitively feel for them because we went through that already.  So our current experience is not universal.  It is really bad out there, depending on where you are located.

Thanks for the update! Hopefully as it gets colder/more people inside, it doesn't keep trending up. Fingers crossed!

[SigmundChurchill]

24 minutes ago, BellevilleMXZ said:

Thanks for the update! Hopefully as it gets colder/more people inside, it doesn't keep trending up. Fingers crossed!

Unfortunately, more people inside usually means more spread, not less.

It is a lot easier to fill a room with vaporized virus than it is to fill the sky.

[vhampl03]

Hopefully the political vitriol doesn't dissuade people from getting the vaccine once approved....

But then there are people (some in my family) who are convinced they got the flu from their shot one year and now don't get a flu shot...sigh

[helix]

Wrong approach in Sweden was taken , plain to see. USA  politicised masks 250K dead and rising . Science must be adhered to , no choice.  

[mprach024]

If anyone owns trucks with deep freeze storage capability, you’re about to get a boom in business

[porkchop]

Covid, for the well connected, is big $$$$ - would expect one more national scare to warrant another huge spending bill.

 

57% of Covid deaths in the US have been individuals 75 or older (124,826/217,348). Life expectancy in the US is 78, give or take. 

79% of Covid deaths in the US have been individuals 65 or older (171,814/217,348). Retirement age in the US is 65, give or take. 

*Stats from CDC as of Nov. 4th.

Why not simply take extra precautions for those that are vulnerable and allow everyone else to continue on? Appears the vulnerable are mostly out of the flow of the economy already.

[mprach024]

25 minutes ago, porkchop said:

Covid, for the well connected, is big $$$$ - would expect one more national scare to warrant another huge spending bill.

 

57% of Covid deaths in the US have been individuals 75 or older (124,826/217,348). Life expectancy in the US is 78, give or take. 

79% of Covid deaths in the US have been individuals 65 or older (171,814/217,348). Retirement age in the US is 65, give or take. 

*Stats from CDC as of Nov. 4th.

Why not simply take extra precautions for those that are vulnerable and allow everyone else to continue on? Appears the vulnerable are mostly out of the flow of the economy already.

Pragmatic view, logical and simple.  As much as that benefits you and the large majority of people here, that’s not how it works in this country, right or wrong.  Can you imagine the storm that would come from attempting to impose restrictions on only specific ages or groups of people?  Then the money just shifts, instead of in aid or support to individuals it would end up in the hands of Civil Rights attorneys.  I’m not arguing or disagreeing with your logic at all, just the feasibility given the construct we can operate within here in the USA.  China could do this, we can’t.  If you don't like the construct, your only recourse is to get out and vote unfortunately.

[Ryan]

22 minutes ago, porkchop said:

Why not simply take extra precautions for those that are vulnerable and allow everyone else to continue on? Appears the vulnerable are mostly out of the flow of the economy already.

While life-expectancy may be 78, I don't know of many people over 75 happy with the notion of dying of Covid because they're going to die of something anyway.

Anyway, the numbers you use are a bit skewed. People who have already reached 75 have a far higher chance of living past 78 (the average) than the general population. Without Covid that is.

Also, this is a brand new disease. Nobody knows what the full set of long-term effects might be among those who survive it. Studies on people who have had it are showing more and more potential long term problems. Along with increased suffering for many of the survivors, what might be the future health care cost?

And then, while most people will survive it, many survivors need hospital care in the short term. If it is allowed go rampant, can hospitals cope with the increased stress? The answer has been shown to be "No", in those areas where it has gone rampant. The idea of precautions is to slow it down, so hospitals can cope until a longer term solution is found, and longer term solutions are being found.

Also, "extra precautions for those who are vulnerable while everyone else continues on". What about the bartender who lives with his elderly mother, the schoolteacher, the nurse and the millions of examples like that. It's not as simple as it might seem.

[Bijan]

1 hour ago, porkchop said:

Life expectancy in the US is 78, give or take. 

Interesting statistical fact is that the older you are the higher your total life expectancy.

At 75 years of age you have about 13 years on average, so 88.

At 80 years of age you have between 9-10 years on average so 89-90.

https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html

I'll leave the policy discussion to others.

[porkchop]

If you are older than 75 and determined to remain above ground, that is awesome (and also entirely on you). It is a completely selfish pursuit - an entire country does not need to shutdown so you can achieve that goal.

Hospitals have 100% been able to cope in the US. When the virus first hit, many field hospitals were constructed and staffed, at great expense to the taxpayer - only to go unused. The 1,000 bed hospital ship that docked in NYC took on 182 patients and departed within a month. All the arguments for stricter lockdowns are emotional pleas. America is not about one individual (or their suffering), it is about a system that allows individuals to flourish. To blow a hole in that system, to put people out of work, unless there are other political machinations, is not wise. We have not even begun to pay for the damage done back in the spring. 

As for protecting the vulnerable, the idea is not for the government to decree them into isolation. The vulnerable can protect themselves by whatever means they deem appropriate.