Swiss Franc


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You swiss are some lucky bast..I mean folks. I've spent a lot of time in Switzerland and always found it rather expensive, but I never thought it'd be this expensive. For those of you out of the loop, the CHF is now on parity with the euro. Last time I was in Zurich, I paid 28 CHF for a croque monsieur and small salad at a small cafe. And in Geneva, a lunch for two at a pizza joint added up to 100 CHF. I remember asking a swiss friend what bankers make and he said bankers at the low end of the totem pole (really crappy bankers) made easily 90,000 CHF a year. I might just have to move to Switzerland.

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The Swiss this morning removed the 1.20 CHF - 1 euro tracker. The euro immediately slumped 30% then came back up slightly. Not a good sign really for those of us in Euroland. Quantitative easing coming in around the corner, about 7 years too late.

Other than the lucky few who live in France and work in Geneva it's not good in the near term for the Swiss either. I don't know the numbers but the majority of Swiss exports must be to euro zone countries, specifically France, Germany and Italy.

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Holy Crap. I just got back from my first ever trip to Switzerland this past Saturday, having bought several boxes of cigars in Geneva. I would have paid hundreds more overall if this had happened earlier - or just bought far less. Sometimes you just get lucky......

And yes the country is mind-numbingly expensive (Geneva particularly)....but since I live in London, it wasn't a huge jump in pricing for us wacko.png

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Only things that are cheaper are energy drinks (love those cheap generic energy drinks from Migros which are essentially Red Bull) and of course the chocolate. Standard Lindt chocolate bars go for around 1 CHF, though there are a ton of better options (personal favorite is Frey). Also worth it is Rivella and Feldschlossen/Calanda.

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I for one am ecstatic about the low Euro - my sales numbers get converted from USD to Euro and I do a fair amount of online shopping in EUR denomination :innocent:

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It wasn't that long ago that Switzerland imposed negative interest rates after the GFC, then deliberately devalued the Franc to stimulate exports and tourism. I just checked XE.com and it's not just the Euro has has devalued against the Swiss Franc today, ALL major currencies have done so, as the Swiss Franc has appreciated in value by 20% in ONE DAY today!

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This was the first shot across the bow of the Grand Currency Reset. Stay tuned. Its going to get funky with the Euro and the USD. The winners here are the Iraqi Dinar, the Chinese Renminbi and the Aussie Dollar. It's all about gold-backed currencies now.

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The Swiss paid a very high price in the past being fixed to the Euro. This way they support the export industries, they have. May they have now enough money and start to do some company & Real estate shopping in Europe. On the other side goods can be import to an much lower price. That's on the positive side

Now the negative side:

In the past retailers around the border to Europe suffered very much. Can't compete with the prices in Food, clothes, furniture, gastronomy, tourisms - name it.

And now with the let loose of the € I think a lot of small companies/retailers will go south.

Just a small example: a box of Cohiba Robusto Supremos is 500 CHF and in Germany 350€. Guess who is shopping where?

We will see how the story with € ends up.

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SNB was forced to move as they could no longer maintain the 1.20 peg with ECB QE coming down the pike. SNB Balance Sheet has been swelling these past 3 years as they have been printing Francs to buy Euros during this intervention to weaken the Franc. Would soon surpass 100% of GDP if they didn't pull the Peg. Easy to abandon and take the short term hit versus taking the longer term risk of jeopardizing the Nation with this Fiscal Policy.

Negative interests rates are to dissuade foreign capital from continuing to come into the Swiss Banks. Not gonna happen imo as Oligarch money will continue to seek safe haven at a negative interest rate versus continuing to be devalued staying in the Russian Ruble. This is happening because of the weakened Oil market and the imposed Economic sanctions.

Net-Net Switzerland becomes more expensive for Outsiders. Locals see a bump in their purchasing power outside Schweiz. Maintain status quo in their everyday lives though their Stock portfolio took a hit. Swiss Companies exporting goods will be harmed trying to compete at higher prices. Inevitably it should correct back over time as things tend to overshoot in the short term.

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SNB was forced to move as they could no longer maintain the 1.20 peg with ECB QE coming down the pike. SNB Balance Sheet has been swelling these past 3 years as they have been printing Francs to buy Euros during this intervention to weaken the Franc. Would soon surpass 100% of GDP if they didn't pull the Peg. Easy to abandon and take the short term hit versus taking the longer term risk of jeopardizing the Nation with this Fiscal Policy.

 

Negative interests rates are to dissuade foreign capital from continuing to come into the Swiss Banks. Not gonna happen imo as Oligarch money will continue to seek safe haven at a negative interest rate versus continuing to be devalued staying in the Russian Ruble. This is happening because of the weakened Oil market and the imposed Economic sanctions.

 

Net-Net Switzerland becomes more expensive for Outsiders. Locals see a bump in their purchasing power outside Schweiz. Maintain status quo in their everyday lives though their Stock portfolio took a hit. Swiss Companies exporting goods will be harmed trying to compete at higher prices. Inevitably it should correct back over time as things tend to overshoot in the short term.

London is fast taking over as the home for new money it seems, old money and old customers are still fine in Swiss accounts but it seems the avenue is being closed off to newer customers. The laws in the UK are making it seemingly a very powerful magnet.

Nearly all of the new real estate in London are primarily investment pieces for new money it seems.

The place is the new tax haven of choice

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This was clearly not a decision taken lightly. Only a few weeks ago the SNB reiterated its commitment to peg the Euro exchange rate at 1:20; however, I think that the recent deflation figures from the Eurozone changed everything.

Personally speaking, I'm quite happily on the fence with some decent CHF deposits which will make the next few ski trips this season (relatively) painless smile.png

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This was the first shot across the bow of the Grand Currency Reset. Stay tuned. Its going to get funky with the Euro and the USD. The winners here are the Iraqi Dinar, the Chinese Renminbi and the Aussie Dollar. It's all about gold-backed currencies now.

In Australia, we have had continual media reports and comments by our Reserve Bank that the AUD should be around US75c. On the weekend, there were multiple media reports stating the AUD will go to US70c in 2015. Somehow NastyPirate, your comment is like a 'lone voice in the wilderness'. However, I can't help but feel that you definitely know what you are talking about. Will the Euro continue to slide and the CHF continue to appreciate then I presume?

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