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Posted

Maybe this has already been addressed … what happened to all the tobacco the past few years when Covid had the factories shut down. It seemed like the supply issue was originally that the factories weren’t running and rollers couldn’t get their hands on stockpiled tobacco. Now the factories are running and there’s a shortage of tobacco due to crop issues? Do I have this completely misunderstood? 

Posted
2 minutes ago, Bri Fi said:

Maybe this has already been addressed … what happened to all the tobacco the past few years when Covid had the factories shut down. It seemed like the supply issue was originally that the factories weren’t running and rollers couldn’t get their hands on stockpiled tobacco. Now the factories are running and there’s a shortage of tobacco due to crop issues? Do I have this completely misunderstood? 

As far as I am aware, there is only a shortage of large wrapper. Plenty of other tobacco for the next couple of years. 

Posted

You know the sh*t has hit the fan when the ubiquitous Monte4 is virtually non existent. 

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Posted
Just now, SCgarman said:

You know the sh*t has hit the fan when the ubiquitous Monte4 is virtually non existent. 

Monte 4 is everywhere in Cuba. It's absence is quite surprising. Although D4, P2 and E2 was nonexistent Q3-Q4 22. DE was getting pretty tough to find as well. 

22 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

I haven't seen an R&J Churchill in 12 months.

There was quite a bit in Cuba in June and Sep and I believe I saw some petacas in Feb. Aside from some Lusi in Jan DCs have been zero in Cuba. 

Posted
19 minutes ago, NSXCIGAR said:

Monte 4 is everywhere in Cuba. It's absence is quite surprising. Although D4, P2 and E2 was nonexistent Q3-Q4 22. DE was getting pretty tough to find as well. 

There was quite a bit in Cuba in June and Sep and I believe I saw some petacas in Feb. Aside from some Lusi in Jan DCs have been zero in Cuba. 

Interesting isn't it. We have never been out of D4 even through the toughest of times. Monte 4....none in Asia/Pacific for near 5 months. 

Posted
1 hour ago, El Presidente said:

Interesting isn't it. We have never been out of D4 even through the toughest of times. Monte 4....none in Asia/Pacific for near 5 months. 

Haven't you put up 1 and 3 pretty consistently? Remarkable it's 4 that's nowhere. Since D4 outsells Monte 4 they must have cut back production on 4 massively. Either they're allocating it to 1 and 3 or the leaf isn't there which is pretty hard to believe for the 4 (although I have thought 1-5 have had separate blends for quite a while now. 

Posted
4 hours ago, El Presidente said:

As far as I am aware, there is only a shortage of large wrapper.

If they’re already short then it’s gonna be really lean on large formats for a while, since I can’t imagine they harvested much (if any) large wrappers this year. 

Posted

Personally I’m seeing more availability on global sources as I suspect most of the market that couldn’t get from the island were scrounging online sources. Now that they can go back to the island for stock up the global suppliers are better stocked. I’ve seen availability of a range of stuff out there recently. Including lusis and so on. I have RAG with SEP 22 code so they were being made towards end of last year. I see a huge improvement from 3 months ago it’s just a matter of finding a price you’re comfortable with. Buying grey market at the moment is a matter of how deep your pockets are. Much better deals to be had from elsewhere at the moment which is evidenced by the prices on here. One brand I can’t see any of anywhere right now is JLP. Who would have thought JLP would be out of stock. Available in grey market ofcourse but not worth the price.  

Posted
3 hours ago, LordAnubis said:

Now that they can go back to the island for stock up the global suppliers are better stocked. I’ve seen availability of a range of stuff out there recently.

I've been told the Chinese visits have been way down all year. Apparently stock in Asia has recovered quite a bit. They were really only buying in Cuba because of supply, not price although that was a bonus. Now Cohiba and Trini cost the same in Cuba as China. 

All the other premium stuff is widely available like Trini, RyJ LdO and Monte 1935. There aren't that many buyers for it anyway at these prices. The Chinese were hoovering all of it up at pre-cigarmageddon prices but I think they're scoffing at the prices. They want Cohiba and the super premiums like the books, Reservas and special releases like SC 20th, Trini 50th and LGC LCDH 25th. Although they are also after the LCDH Glorias and JLSE pretty aggressively. Also Fundys. The other Trinis aren't really moving. 

And things are still getting produced in very small quantities. Probably going to China. I've seen 21 or 22 production of most of the hardest to find stuff--898, LGC MdO4, Fundys, Libertadores, Party and Cuaba Salomon. Dip 2, HU 2. Right now there's a ton of Cohiba Ambar and Ideales being made. Lots of BHK. Probably all going to China. Even Majestuosos are still being made. 

Posted
11 hours ago, El Presidente said:

Interesting isn't it. We have never been out of D4 even through the toughest of times. Monte 4....none in Asia/Pacific for near 5 months. 

Makes me really glad I grabbed a box when I did. I haven't touched them yet, and idk when I will. I've got Monte 5 and 1s to keep me out of the 4s lol.

Posted

Habanos doesn’t want to sell to povo Monte 4 buyers anymore. They don’t want volume sales. They want maximum margin per stick. Be crazy to be making Monte 4 when monte 2 make you so much more money. 
I would really like to know if there’s specific tobacco they designate for specific cigars. As in this tobacconfrom this farm is kept solely to put into monte 4. Or is all just lumped together as volado seco or whatever and then just based on percentage rolled for the cigar. Monte 2, P2, dip 2, Upmann 2 all seem to be out at the moment. 

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Posted
7 hours ago, LordAnubis said:

I would really like to know if there’s specific tobacco they designate for specific cigars.

There are certain recipes/formulas and the tobacco is categorized pretty specifically. This is the accepted story at any rate.

 

7 hours ago, LordAnubis said:

Monte 2, P2, dip 2, Upmann 2 all seem to be out at the moment. 

Demand on the one hand and (lack of) wrapper size and roller skill, on the other, would probably be the most likely.

Posted
7 hours ago, Bijan said:

Demand on the one hand and (lack of) wrapper size and roller skill, on the other, would probably be the most likely.

No no. I mean available everywhere to buy. Those mentioned were available as of yesterday for purchase. 

 

7 hours ago, Corylax18 said:

There isn't, Tabacuba just doesn't work that way.

So then. My main point is. Why would habanos roll Monte 4 right now instead of Monte 2? Or why would they roll rass instead of Monte 2. Would the same tobacco grade go into all? Just at varying ratio ie blend? Or is there a specific tobacco they put only into the Monte 4 or rass that necessitates they can only roll that because they don’t have the specific tobacco that goes into something else. As an example. Bhk that has the medio tiempo or whatever. If they don’t have the leaf they can’t roll bhk. Would the be something limiting them being able to roll Monte 4 right now other than poor financial decision. To me the interest is aboutnlrocess optimisation. You have a finite amount of resources (leaves) and how can you use that amount to make the maximum possible revenue. We do this in mining where you have ore in the ground. And in order to get the maximum revenue you have to manipulate what you mine, how you process when you process etc. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, LordAnubis said:

Habanos doesn’t want to sell to povo Monte 4 buyers anymore. They don’t want volume sales. They want maximum margin per stick. Be crazy to be making Monte 4 when monte 2 make you so much more money. 
I would really like to know if there’s specific tobacco they designate for specific cigars. As in this tobacconfrom this farm is kept solely to put into monte 4. Or is all just lumped together as volado seco or whatever and then just based on percentage rolled for the cigar. Monte 2, P2, dip 2, Upmann 2 all seem to be out at the moment. 

We don't know this, and it is your subjective opinion. I would imagine Monte 4 is still a large percentage of HSA sales, and they would be foolish to just sweep it under the rug. As Rob stated many times only a small percentage of the Habanos catalog is being produced at the moment. Things are beyond dysfunctional in Cuba at the moment 

Posted
1 minute ago, LordAnubis said:

Why would habanos roll Monte 4 right now instead of Monte 2?

Size of the available leaf, most harvests generate a wide variety of leaf size. Some plants in the same field get more shade, less water, whatever. So even if it meets the grade, not every leaf is big enough to roll Pyramides, or Churchills, Etc. Monte 2 and No 4 should be rolled with very similar leaf if the whole marca/blend myth holds true. I don't doubt that the Factory Managers and Blenders try their hardest, but as you said, they don't always have all the parts and pieces needed to roll each cigar/blend. 

5 minutes ago, LordAnubis said:

To me the interest is aboutnlrocess optimisation. You have a finite amount of resources (leaves) and how can you use that amount to make the maximum possible revenue.

I'm in the camp that a Habanos isn't a certain "cigar" (RASS or P2 or whatever) until the band is applied. Before that its just a robusto. The blender has a "recipe" for robustos and thats that. Another for churchills, etc. The blender gets his bundles of tobacco, the factory manager has his list of cigars that need to be rolled for the week (1000 Robusto, 2000 PC, etc) and the bands get delivered from somewhere outside the country. There are plenty that disagree with me, but the more I visit farms, escogidos, factories and talk to the people that work there, the firmer my belief is. 

 

9 minutes ago, LordAnubis said:

We do this in mining where you have ore in the ground. And in order to get the maximum revenue you have to manipulate what you mine, how you process when you process etc. 

This is definitely happening. You mentioned BHK, which was the first "ultra premium" line. The "Behikefication" of the entire portfolio is already in process. First it was the Monte Linea series, then the Line de Oro for RyJ, now Partagas will have its own up market brand releasing soon. Eventually, these double/triple banded dollar gobblers will make up the entire portfolio. As I've mentioned in other threads, HSA hasn't found some miracle strain, they haven't figured out a better way to process it. there isnt any new or better tobacco being introduced. All they've done is add more bands, created new "lines" and drastically increased the price charged for the same tobacco. 

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Posted
5 hours ago, LordAnubis said:

No no. I mean available everywhere to buy. Those mentioned were available as of yesterday for purchase. 

If Monte 4 are sold out, but Monte 2 are available I'd say price. I was buying 2:1 Monte 4 and 5 vs Monte 2 and Maybe 1:1 Monte 1 and 3 vs Monte 2. In part due to prices then, before they doubled.

Definitely a lot more MF, Super Partagas, etc. being sold these days.

 

5 hours ago, Corylax18 said:

I'm in the camp that a Habanos isn't a certain "cigar" (RASS or P2 or whatever) until the band is applied. Before that its just a robusto. The blender has a "recipe" for robustos and thats that. Another for churchills, etc. The blender gets his bundles of tobacco, the factory manager has his list of cigars that need to be rolled for the week (1000 Robusto, 2000 PC, etc) and the bands get delivered from somewhere outside the country. There are plenty that disagree with me, but the more I visit farms, escogidos, factories and talk to the people that work there, the firmer my belief is. 

Maybe in some cases. I could see a PSD4 and a JL2 maybe getting swapped, Punch Punch and JL1. But Epi 2 and RASS? RyJ Churchill and Sir Winston or Esplendidos? PLPC and Monte 4? Trinidad and anything else (granted Trinidad are unique sizes).

(Also wouldn't it be that if they're rolling RASS Robustos, the factory/rollers would get the tobacco suitable for RASS, so that they'd just have to follow the Robusto recipe with the RASS ingredients (more or less) ?)

Posted
35 minutes ago, Corylax18 said:

This is definitely happening. You mentioned BHK, which was the first "ultra premium" line. The "Behikefication" of the entire portfolio is already in process. First it was the Monte Linea series, then the Line de Oro for RyJ, now Partagas will have its own up market brand releasing soon. Eventually, these double/triple banded dollar gobblers will make up the entire portfolio. As I've mentioned in other threads, HSA hasn't found some miracle strain, they haven't figured out a better way to process it. there isnt any new or better tobacco being introduced. All they've done is add more bands, created new "lines" and drastically increased the price charged for the same tobacco. 

Never thought about it this way...really such a bummer to just envision the "uniqueness" of these upmarket sticks being the marketing etc. Obviously blends change, but like you said, it isn't the result of some new breakthrough method being used

Posted
43 minutes ago, Corylax18 said:

I'm sure that they would prefer every cigar have its own, specific, exact blend, but they only have so much to work with. I'm not saying they don't try to achieve it, but Reality is rarely perfect, especially in Cuba. 

Oh ok thanks! I didn't know any of the details.

Your previous message made it sound like they didn't try 🙂

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