Popular Post El Presidente Posted May 8, 2023 Popular Post Posted May 8, 2023 I promised a market update last week. There are some green shoots on the supply side over the past 8 weeks with a little more breadth in stock lines. Quantities are still very thin. Monte 4 still one of the rarest cigars in the world today so you know that Tabacuba are a long way from getting on the starting grid toward competency. We are all aware that Cuba is a basket case and in a perilous state. There is no money and needs everywhere for whatever little there is. Unless you are a new hotel or another govt/military pet project, you are at the back of a long que. Tobacco infrastructure is important to the Cuban economy but still behind other infrastructure needs such as power generation let alone Medical/medicine supplies and food imports. Tourism numbers are still half of those of 2019. Hotel occupancy rates are estimated at between 16 - 20%. From the retail floor, sales are brisk globally. That is if you are receiving stock. It is estimated 1 million cigars a week are being produced in Cuba currently. While it sounds like a lot it is less than a weeks global demand. They can't catch up. This reinforces/underpins their pricing strategy. I can't see them catching up in the foreseeable future even if they had the will to do so. Distributors are supplying their core retail organs first. LCDH/retailers with long relationships. Pretty much everyone else has been told "good luck, you are on your own for now". Many in Europe/Asia have run to the NC market to shore up supply. NC supply is piecemeal and does not quite meet the hole left by Habanos. Not yet at least. It will take a few years for manufacturers to gear up. There is some stock piling up in some parts of the world. Essentially, they are Trinidad and small Cohiba. I assume production of those lines will stop to allow backlogs to disappear over time. They will need to revisit their strategy, but some triage is required now. Cuba LCDH retail is interesting. From what I am being told, unit sales have halved but revenue is not far off 2019. The Chinese/Cuba tourist market opened up 12 weeks ago, so I am interested to see how the back end of the year goes for Cuba retail. The rest of the worlds retail would welcome any surplus stock from Cuba retail. No one is holding their breath. Large formats such as DC/Churchill are almost non-existent. I haven't seen an R&J Churchill in 12 months. New "launches" continue a regular basis, but it is mostly "smoke and mirrors" as the production reserves are not there to support a regional, let alone global release. We have all heard that a lack of large wrapper leaf is apparently to blame. That doesn't augur well for the next couple of years. I am not sure the reasoning rings 100% true. Factories are officially in 100% production. Unofficially they are 50%. The truth will be somewhere in between. There have been crackdowns in regard to "stock count aberrations". In summary, the second half of 2023 may see some improvement in terms of supply, but it will be marginal. 10 11
Bri Fi Posted May 8, 2023 Posted May 8, 2023 Maybe this has already been addressed … what happened to all the tobacco the past few years when Covid had the factories shut down. It seemed like the supply issue was originally that the factories weren’t running and rollers couldn’t get their hands on stockpiled tobacco. Now the factories are running and there’s a shortage of tobacco due to crop issues? Do I have this completely misunderstood?
El Presidente Posted May 8, 2023 Author Posted May 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, Bri Fi said: Maybe this has already been addressed … what happened to all the tobacco the past few years when Covid had the factories shut down. It seemed like the supply issue was originally that the factories weren’t running and rollers couldn’t get their hands on stockpiled tobacco. Now the factories are running and there’s a shortage of tobacco due to crop issues? Do I have this completely misunderstood? As far as I am aware, there is only a shortage of large wrapper. Plenty of other tobacco for the next couple of years.
SCgarman Posted May 8, 2023 Posted May 8, 2023 You know the sh*t has hit the fan when the ubiquitous Monte4 is virtually non existent. 3 1
NSXCIGAR Posted May 9, 2023 Posted May 9, 2023 Just now, SCgarman said: You know the sh*t has hit the fan when the ubiquitous Monte4 is virtually non existent. Monte 4 is everywhere in Cuba. It's absence is quite surprising. Although D4, P2 and E2 was nonexistent Q3-Q4 22. DE was getting pretty tough to find as well. 22 minutes ago, El Presidente said: I haven't seen an R&J Churchill in 12 months. There was quite a bit in Cuba in June and Sep and I believe I saw some petacas in Feb. Aside from some Lusi in Jan DCs have been zero in Cuba.
El Presidente Posted May 9, 2023 Author Posted May 9, 2023 19 minutes ago, NSXCIGAR said: Monte 4 is everywhere in Cuba. It's absence is quite surprising. Although D4, P2 and E2 was nonexistent Q3-Q4 22. DE was getting pretty tough to find as well. There was quite a bit in Cuba in June and Sep and I believe I saw some petacas in Feb. Aside from some Lusi in Jan DCs have been zero in Cuba. Interesting isn't it. We have never been out of D4 even through the toughest of times. Monte 4....none in Asia/Pacific for near 5 months.
NSXCIGAR Posted May 9, 2023 Posted May 9, 2023 1 hour ago, El Presidente said: Interesting isn't it. We have never been out of D4 even through the toughest of times. Monte 4....none in Asia/Pacific for near 5 months. Haven't you put up 1 and 3 pretty consistently? Remarkable it's 4 that's nowhere. Since D4 outsells Monte 4 they must have cut back production on 4 massively. Either they're allocating it to 1 and 3 or the leaf isn't there which is pretty hard to believe for the 4 (although I have thought 1-5 have had separate blends for quite a while now.
MrBirdman Posted May 9, 2023 Posted May 9, 2023 4 hours ago, El Presidente said: As far as I am aware, there is only a shortage of large wrapper. If they’re already short then it’s gonna be really lean on large formats for a while, since I can’t imagine they harvested much (if any) large wrappers this year.
LordAnubis Posted May 9, 2023 Posted May 9, 2023 Personally I’m seeing more availability on global sources as I suspect most of the market that couldn’t get from the island were scrounging online sources. Now that they can go back to the island for stock up the global suppliers are better stocked. I’ve seen availability of a range of stuff out there recently. Including lusis and so on. I have RAG with SEP 22 code so they were being made towards end of last year. I see a huge improvement from 3 months ago it’s just a matter of finding a price you’re comfortable with. Buying grey market at the moment is a matter of how deep your pockets are. Much better deals to be had from elsewhere at the moment which is evidenced by the prices on here. One brand I can’t see any of anywhere right now is JLP. Who would have thought JLP would be out of stock. Available in grey market ofcourse but not worth the price.
NSXCIGAR Posted May 9, 2023 Posted May 9, 2023 3 hours ago, LordAnubis said: Now that they can go back to the island for stock up the global suppliers are better stocked. I’ve seen availability of a range of stuff out there recently. I've been told the Chinese visits have been way down all year. Apparently stock in Asia has recovered quite a bit. They were really only buying in Cuba because of supply, not price although that was a bonus. Now Cohiba and Trini cost the same in Cuba as China. All the other premium stuff is widely available like Trini, RyJ LdO and Monte 1935. There aren't that many buyers for it anyway at these prices. The Chinese were hoovering all of it up at pre-cigarmageddon prices but I think they're scoffing at the prices. They want Cohiba and the super premiums like the books, Reservas and special releases like SC 20th, Trini 50th and LGC LCDH 25th. Although they are also after the LCDH Glorias and JLSE pretty aggressively. Also Fundys. The other Trinis aren't really moving. And things are still getting produced in very small quantities. Probably going to China. I've seen 21 or 22 production of most of the hardest to find stuff--898, LGC MdO4, Fundys, Libertadores, Party and Cuaba Salomon. Dip 2, HU 2. Right now there's a ton of Cohiba Ambar and Ideales being made. Lots of BHK. Probably all going to China. Even Majestuosos are still being made.
Cabbie Posted May 9, 2023 Posted May 9, 2023 11 hours ago, El Presidente said: Interesting isn't it. We have never been out of D4 even through the toughest of times. Monte 4....none in Asia/Pacific for near 5 months. Makes me really glad I grabbed a box when I did. I haven't touched them yet, and idk when I will. I've got Monte 5 and 1s to keep me out of the 4s lol.
Popular Post JohnS Posted May 9, 2023 Popular Post Posted May 9, 2023 When there's a hiatus on Montecristo No.4, well then...you know fully that things are really bad. Together with the Partagas Serie D No.4 and Montecristo No.2, you'd think that those three cigars have accounted for the most sales by volume worldwide in the recent years prior to cigarmageddon (i.e. mid-2022 or thereabouts). What's more disconcerting is the lack of production of longer cigars across the board. You see, ever since Habanos cigar production was centralised post-revolution, circa 1961 onwards, there's always been a nod to producing certain cigars out of a sense of tradition and brand awareness, let's say. The Romeo y Julieta Churchills and even the Partagas Lusitanias are cigars that embody that tradition and for them to be in hiatus in the current time goes to show how desperate things are. 4 2
LordAnubis Posted May 10, 2023 Posted May 10, 2023 Habanos doesn’t want to sell to povo Monte 4 buyers anymore. They don’t want volume sales. They want maximum margin per stick. Be crazy to be making Monte 4 when monte 2 make you so much more money. I would really like to know if there’s specific tobacco they designate for specific cigars. As in this tobacconfrom this farm is kept solely to put into monte 4. Or is all just lumped together as volado seco or whatever and then just based on percentage rolled for the cigar. Monte 2, P2, dip 2, Upmann 2 all seem to be out at the moment. 1
Bijan Posted May 10, 2023 Posted May 10, 2023 7 hours ago, LordAnubis said: I would really like to know if there’s specific tobacco they designate for specific cigars. There are certain recipes/formulas and the tobacco is categorized pretty specifically. This is the accepted story at any rate. 7 hours ago, LordAnubis said: Monte 2, P2, dip 2, Upmann 2 all seem to be out at the moment. Demand on the one hand and (lack of) wrapper size and roller skill, on the other, would probably be the most likely.
Popular Post Corylax18 Posted May 10, 2023 Popular Post Posted May 10, 2023 On 5/10/2023 at 4:27 PM, LordAnubis said: Habanos doesn’t want to sell to povo Monte 4 buyers anymore. They don’t want volume sales. They want maximum margin per stick. Be crazy to be making Monte 4 when monte 2 make you so much more money. Bingo. On 5/10/2023 at 4:27 PM, LordAnubis said: I would really like to know if there’s specific tobacco they designate for specific cigars. As in this tobacconfrom this farm is kept solely to put into monte 4. Or is all just lumped together as volado seco or whatever and then just based on percentage rolled for the cigar. Monte 2, P2, dip 2, Upmann 2 all seem to be out at the moment. There isn't, Tabacuba just doesn't work that way. Once the drying and first fermentation are completed by the farmer, Tabacuba takes possession of the leaves and regrades them. Thickness, quality, color, Priming, etc. Once the leaf starts the the 2nd fermentation process its been mixed with tobacco from countless other farms. Leaves with the same size, thickness, priming and quality level undergo the 2nd and 3rd fermentations, together. Doing it this way should lead to a much more consistent product on the back end. After fermentation, the tobacco is stripped of the central vein, regraded, then aged. So by the time a bale shows up at a factory(photo below), its impossible to tell what farms the tobacco is from. In all fairness to HSA/Tabacuba, they don't hide any of this. Its all there, out in the open, if you're willing to take the time to read it. https://www.habanos.com/en/the-world-of-the-habano/ "Sorting and classification of Fillers and Binders It is at this stage that theEmpresa de Acopio y Beneficio del Tabacobuys the filler and binder leaves from the farmer and assumes the responsibility for the next phase which takes place in theEscogidaor Sorting House, where the leaves are taken after the first fermentation in the curing barn. The leaves are first moistened and aired to make them easier to handle and less vulnerable to damage during the classification. Then they are sorted and grouped in the four essential categories of flavour or that will be combinedin the blends of filler for Habanos: , , and .Volado leaves are collected from the lowest part of the plant and have little strength. They are also referred to as 1 (Strength 1) and the biggest and best of them are classified as binder. Thesecoleaves are taken from the middle of the plant and are renowned for their aroma. They have medium strength (Fortaleza2).Ligeroandmedio tiempoleaves come from the top of the plant and are the strongest in flavour (Fortalezas 3 and 4). After this strict process of selection that is essential to the Habano, only around half of all the leaves will make the grade and be classified asmedio tiempo, ligero, seco, voladoand binder that will finally be used to make Habanos. Second and third fermentations of Fillers and Binders Following classification into thetiemposorfortalezasthat will be used in the preparation of blends in the factories, the leaves continue their long process of refinement. In a building called the or Stripping House where they have been taken from the Sorting House, themedio tiempo, ligeroandsecoleaves undergo a second fermentation (sometimes also known as the pre-stripping fermentation) inpilonesor piles for a period of 15 days. Thevoladoand binder leaves, which are thinner, are only aired at this stage." 8 2
LordAnubis Posted May 11, 2023 Posted May 11, 2023 7 hours ago, Bijan said: Demand on the one hand and (lack of) wrapper size and roller skill, on the other, would probably be the most likely. No no. I mean available everywhere to buy. Those mentioned were available as of yesterday for purchase. 7 hours ago, Corylax18 said: There isn't, Tabacuba just doesn't work that way. So then. My main point is. Why would habanos roll Monte 4 right now instead of Monte 2? Or why would they roll rass instead of Monte 2. Would the same tobacco grade go into all? Just at varying ratio ie blend? Or is there a specific tobacco they put only into the Monte 4 or rass that necessitates they can only roll that because they don’t have the specific tobacco that goes into something else. As an example. Bhk that has the medio tiempo or whatever. If they don’t have the leaf they can’t roll bhk. Would the be something limiting them being able to roll Monte 4 right now other than poor financial decision. To me the interest is aboutnlrocess optimisation. You have a finite amount of resources (leaves) and how can you use that amount to make the maximum possible revenue. We do this in mining where you have ore in the ground. And in order to get the maximum revenue you have to manipulate what you mine, how you process when you process etc. 1
SCgarman Posted May 11, 2023 Posted May 11, 2023 1 hour ago, LordAnubis said: Habanos doesn’t want to sell to povo Monte 4 buyers anymore. They don’t want volume sales. They want maximum margin per stick. Be crazy to be making Monte 4 when monte 2 make you so much more money. I would really like to know if there’s specific tobacco they designate for specific cigars. As in this tobacconfrom this farm is kept solely to put into monte 4. Or is all just lumped together as volado seco or whatever and then just based on percentage rolled for the cigar. Monte 2, P2, dip 2, Upmann 2 all seem to be out at the moment. We don't know this, and it is your subjective opinion. I would imagine Monte 4 is still a large percentage of HSA sales, and they would be foolish to just sweep it under the rug. As Rob stated many times only a small percentage of the Habanos catalog is being produced at the moment. Things are beyond dysfunctional in Cuba at the moment
Corylax18 Posted May 11, 2023 Posted May 11, 2023 1 minute ago, LordAnubis said: Why would habanos roll Monte 4 right now instead of Monte 2? Size of the available leaf, most harvests generate a wide variety of leaf size. Some plants in the same field get more shade, less water, whatever. So even if it meets the grade, not every leaf is big enough to roll Pyramides, or Churchills, Etc. Monte 2 and No 4 should be rolled with very similar leaf if the whole marca/blend myth holds true. I don't doubt that the Factory Managers and Blenders try their hardest, but as you said, they don't always have all the parts and pieces needed to roll each cigar/blend. 5 minutes ago, LordAnubis said: To me the interest is aboutnlrocess optimisation. You have a finite amount of resources (leaves) and how can you use that amount to make the maximum possible revenue. I'm in the camp that a Habanos isn't a certain "cigar" (RASS or P2 or whatever) until the band is applied. Before that its just a robusto. The blender has a "recipe" for robustos and thats that. Another for churchills, etc. The blender gets his bundles of tobacco, the factory manager has his list of cigars that need to be rolled for the week (1000 Robusto, 2000 PC, etc) and the bands get delivered from somewhere outside the country. There are plenty that disagree with me, but the more I visit farms, escogidos, factories and talk to the people that work there, the firmer my belief is. 9 minutes ago, LordAnubis said: We do this in mining where you have ore in the ground. And in order to get the maximum revenue you have to manipulate what you mine, how you process when you process etc. This is definitely happening. You mentioned BHK, which was the first "ultra premium" line. The "Behikefication" of the entire portfolio is already in process. First it was the Monte Linea series, then the Line de Oro for RyJ, now Partagas will have its own up market brand releasing soon. Eventually, these double/triple banded dollar gobblers will make up the entire portfolio. As I've mentioned in other threads, HSA hasn't found some miracle strain, they haven't figured out a better way to process it. there isnt any new or better tobacco being introduced. All they've done is add more bands, created new "lines" and drastically increased the price charged for the same tobacco. 1
Marco_011t556 Posted May 11, 2023 Posted May 11, 2023 Seen some Partagas E2, Srm ago 22 Ges jul 22 but sadly no lusi 898
Bijan Posted May 11, 2023 Posted May 11, 2023 5 hours ago, LordAnubis said: No no. I mean available everywhere to buy. Those mentioned were available as of yesterday for purchase. If Monte 4 are sold out, but Monte 2 are available I'd say price. I was buying 2:1 Monte 4 and 5 vs Monte 2 and Maybe 1:1 Monte 1 and 3 vs Monte 2. In part due to prices then, before they doubled. Definitely a lot more MF, Super Partagas, etc. being sold these days. 5 hours ago, Corylax18 said: I'm in the camp that a Habanos isn't a certain "cigar" (RASS or P2 or whatever) until the band is applied. Before that its just a robusto. The blender has a "recipe" for robustos and thats that. Another for churchills, etc. The blender gets his bundles of tobacco, the factory manager has his list of cigars that need to be rolled for the week (1000 Robusto, 2000 PC, etc) and the bands get delivered from somewhere outside the country. There are plenty that disagree with me, but the more I visit farms, escogidos, factories and talk to the people that work there, the firmer my belief is. Maybe in some cases. I could see a PSD4 and a JL2 maybe getting swapped, Punch Punch and JL1. But Epi 2 and RASS? RyJ Churchill and Sir Winston or Esplendidos? PLPC and Monte 4? Trinidad and anything else (granted Trinidad are unique sizes). (Also wouldn't it be that if they're rolling RASS Robustos, the factory/rollers would get the tobacco suitable for RASS, so that they'd just have to follow the Robusto recipe with the RASS ingredients (more or less) ?)
Popular Post Corylax18 Posted May 11, 2023 Popular Post Posted May 11, 2023 On 5/10/2023 at 6:56 PM, Bijan said: Maybe in some cases. I could see a PSD4 and a JL2 maybe getting swapped, Punch Punch and JL1. But Epi 2 and RASS? RyJ Churchill and Sir Winston or Esplendidos? PLPC and Monte 4? Trinidad and anything else (granted Trinidad are unique sizes). (Also wouldn't it be that if they're rolling RASS Robustos, the factory/rollers would get the tobacco suitable for RASS, so that they'd just have to follow the Robusto recipe with the RASS ingredients (more or less) ?) The Factory Managers go to the Aging warehouses on a twice weekly or monthly basis and select their bales. I've never had a factory manager tell me that they roll up cigars and taste the tobacco at the warehouse. The tobacco has obviously been graded at several stages before it hits the aging warehouse, so the managers have some idea of what they're getting, but they dont go to the warehouse to selected "rass tobacco" or "cohiba tobacco" I've spoken to the last two managers at El Laguito in depth about this process, they supposedly get the first run at new lots of tobacco as they become ready. They do select wrapper based on the color its marked with on the outside of the bale, but they really dont know what they got until the tobacco gets back to the factory and they open the bales. The Blender is then responsible for taking those tobaccos and ensuring he provides enough packets of tobacco to keep the rollers busy. Once he tastes the tobacco, a group of people then weigh out each type of tobacco and assemble the "deck of cards" that each roller gets for the day. (photos below of this process being completed at at El Laguito) I'm sure that they would prefer every cigar have its own, specific, exact blend, but they only have so much to work with. I'm not saying they don't try to achieve it, but Reality is rarely perfect, especially in Cuba. "The blend for each size within each brand is specified and monitored by the Tobacco Research Institute together with Habanos s.a. as part of the Regulatory Council to ensure that the quality and taste characteristics of each cigar are respected. The task of the – Master Blender – in each factory is to make certain that the prescribe. It is a remarkable feature of Cuban tobacco that such a small acreage of can produce such a wide variety of flavours from area to area. Literally the tobacco grown on one side of a road in the can taste completely different from the tobacco grown on the other side. There is an established link between the factory and the areas that supply the leaf for the brands it manufactures. Nevertheless it is the Master Blender’s responsibility to sample the flavour of the tobaccos in use from day to day. He carries the recipe for each brand and size in his head and is the guardian of their consistency." 8
PerilousMarlin1 Posted May 11, 2023 Posted May 11, 2023 35 minutes ago, Corylax18 said: This is definitely happening. You mentioned BHK, which was the first "ultra premium" line. The "Behikefication" of the entire portfolio is already in process. First it was the Monte Linea series, then the Line de Oro for RyJ, now Partagas will have its own up market brand releasing soon. Eventually, these double/triple banded dollar gobblers will make up the entire portfolio. As I've mentioned in other threads, HSA hasn't found some miracle strain, they haven't figured out a better way to process it. there isnt any new or better tobacco being introduced. All they've done is add more bands, created new "lines" and drastically increased the price charged for the same tobacco. Never thought about it this way...really such a bummer to just envision the "uniqueness" of these upmarket sticks being the marketing etc. Obviously blends change, but like you said, it isn't the result of some new breakthrough method being used
Bijan Posted May 11, 2023 Posted May 11, 2023 43 minutes ago, Corylax18 said: I'm sure that they would prefer every cigar have its own, specific, exact blend, but they only have so much to work with. I'm not saying they don't try to achieve it, but Reality is rarely perfect, especially in Cuba. Oh ok thanks! I didn't know any of the details. Your previous message made it sound like they didn't try 🙂
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