The Hits keep on Comin' "Smallest Tobacco Crop in Cuban History"

[Puros Y Vino]

Just got this from CA.

https://www.cigaraficionado.com/article/cuba-faces-smallest-tobacco-crop-in-history

Another factor to raise prices on new stock and for vintage.  Even if you can make some $ selling your treasured boxes, there's a good chance you'll never be able to build up your CC stock again without a mortgage.  😬

[NSXCIGAR]

Smaller than the 1980 blue mold 90% loss? Doubt it. 

[Corylax18]

Just now, NSXCIGAR said:

Smaller than the 1980 blue mold 90% loss? Doubt it. 

I don't. The last week of February (when most of the tobacco should be out of the ground and in the drying barns there where still 24" tall plants all over the place. I saw very few plants taller than about 3'/1m. Not only does that mean lower yields, but the leaves them selves are much, much smaller than they typically would be. 

So you add a lower quantity of leaves, to the much lower volume of leaves, to the fact that there is no where to dry most of it and its about as bad as the situation can be. Many  farmers didnt even waste their time/money trying this year. Many very large, very famous farms. The photo below would be a perfect fit for November 27th, even December 27th but the plants looking like that on February 27th mean they are essentially worthless. From an export grade perspective. Maybe they can still use some of it for domestics cigars, definitely for cigarettes, but only if they find somewhere to dry it. 

The one bright spot (kind of) is that it has been bone dry since the hurricane hit. Everything is dried out and the leaf they do get into barns should be drying just fine right now. However, if the normal rainy does arrive the leaf that's hanging now could very easily mold or not dry properly. 

[NSXCIGAR]

2 minutes ago, Corylax18 said:

I don't. The last week of February (when most of the tobacco should be out of the ground and in the drying barns there where still 24" tall plants all over the place. I saw very few plants taller than about 3'/1m. Not only does that mean lower yields, but the leaves them selves are much, much smaller than they typically would be. 

I don't doubt it was bad but hectares planted are much more than in 1980 and knowing Cuba will take any opportunity to embellish bad news I have a hard time believing it was THE worst crop, although it may be the worst crop in HSA's era. 

[LizardGizmo]

So CA quotes the Cuban Government's paper, then calls a farmer on the ground who says, despite everything, that he's recovered 100% and his crop is "muy bueno" this year?

I am not disputing what @Corylax18 saw, which is certainly troubling, but I just do not believe a word the Cuban gov't says. I wish they spoke to more than one farmer, but still.

 

[El Presidente]

30 minutes ago, NSXCIGAR said:

I don't doubt it was bad but hectares planted are much more than in 1980 and knowing Cuba will take any opportunity to embellish bad news I have a hard time believing it was THE worst crop, although it may be the worst crop in HSA's era. 

When Prieto leaves, you can guess that everything "no esta relejado" 

[helix]

Has Hector planted or did he indeed leave ?

[El Presidente]

6 minutes ago, helix said:

Has Hector planted or did he indeed leave ?

His son has taken over (as I was told February).  I am not sure how much of a crop was planted. They took a massive hit from Ian. 

 

[helix]

Yes  the pictures from Ian looked to be total destruction at the Prieto finca. Hector was on top of the world our visit in 2014. Man Cuba is a tough go.

[Corylax18]

On 4/5/2023 at 6:39 AM, helix said:

Has Hector planted or did he indeed leave ?

On 4/5/2023 at 6:48 AM, El Presidente said:

His son has taken over (as I was told February).  I am not sure how much of a crop was planted. They took a massive hit from Ian. 

 

I don't think Hector is done forever, (at least I really hope not) but he needed to get away and clear his head/blow off some steam. Reevaluate things. He is just fed up with the system, the government, the B.S. I heard him say things I never, ever thought I would. Specifically about the people in power. Hector's son and daughter in law are running the show for now, but its really just a vegetable farm as we speak. 

Zero Tobacco was planted on the farm this year. His seedlings where ruined by Ian and the government didn't give him a dime to fix anything, his home, the drying barns, anything. They did however pressure him into planting, they didn't have seedlings for him to plant, a plan to process the tobacco, nothing. But they threatened him with consequences if he didn't. That was the veritable "Last Straw"

They cleaned up the rubble and started rebuilding the Bar/Restaurant/guest house, but they had run out of materials to keep building by late February. 

Its the same story at most of the well known farms. Maximo planted nothing and Tabacuba hadn't picked up last years crop from his farm yet, so he let it sit and rot. A couple tons of the most beautiful leaf on the island, turned into compost. I don't believe Robaina planted a single plant. Hoyo de Monterrey was a dustbowl. Hoyo de Mena/Salvador Carvajal planted roughly 15-20% of their normal acreage and all of it filler leaf. (Salvador is known for his wrapper.) Everyone of these farms has an HSA "Man of the Year" trophy on site, copies of all CA and CJ articles the farms are featured in hanging on the wall. These farms are the cream of the crop, arguably some of the most Valuable/Important acreage on the entire island.   

If these extremely productive, well respected farmers couldn't get what they needed to plant, imagine how tough it was for the average farmer. When faced with the choice, many farmers planted corn, beans, things they can eat. It was an easy choice over planting tobacco that the government would eventually steal from them. 

[MrBirdman]

Whether it’s actually the smallest or not, it’s bad. Sounds like they won’t be harvesting any larger format wrapper leaf at all, and that’s scarce enough as it is. 

[LizardGizmo]

46 minutes ago, Corylax18 said:

If these extremely productive, well respected farmers couldn't get what they needed to plant, imagine how tough it was for the average farmer. When faced with the choice, many farmers planted corn, beans, things they can't eat. It was an easy choice over planting tobacco that the government would eventually steal from them. 

All while the Cuban gov't and HSA are leveraging the story to milk even more money out of customers - for the farmers to receive absolutely none of it.

[El Presidente]

1 hour ago, Corylax18 said:

 

If these extremely productive, well respected farmers couldn't get what they needed to plant, imagine how tough it was for the average farmer. 

 

Hector Luis Prieto. Habanos Man Of The Year 2008 (Production Category). 

 

When guys like Hector have had enough, the time is 5 minutes to midnight for the Cuban cigar industry. They need everything to go right from this point on. 

You can listen to Tabacuba/HSA/Factory Manager talking heads all day long. Take them to dinner/lunches/bring gifts/medicine over many years. You will hear three different stories on the same issue over three days, from each of them .  They truly are full of it. 

Follow the money. Farmers produce or perish. Fewer and fewer want to produce tobacco right now for reasons covered extensively. The next step? Forced plantings. Servitude. 

[SCgarman]

1 hour ago, MrBirdman said:

Whether it’s actually the smallest or not, it’s bad. Sounds like they won’t be harvesting any larger format wrapper leaf at all, and that’s scarce enough as it is. 

Be prepared for Marevas, Minutos and similar. Those who love their DC and Churchill sizes may be SOL

[JohnS]

2 minutes ago, SCgarman said:

Be prepared for Marevas, Minutos and similar. Those who love their DC and Churchill sizes may be SOL

Indeed. Had this same conversation with with El Pres recently. Sadly, it is as you say.

[Corylax18]

38 minutes ago, SCgarman said:

Be prepared for Marevas, Minutos and similar. Those who love their DC and Churchill sizes may be SOL

 

35 minutes ago, JohnS said:

Indeed. Had this same conversation with with El Pres recently. Sadly, it is as you say.

 

1 hour ago, LizardGizmo said:

All while the Cuban gov't and HSA are leveraging the story to milk even more money out of customers - for the farmers to receive absolutely none of it.

Tabacuba Should have plenty of leaf for the next 18 to 24 months at a minimum. Even with the fires, the last few harvests prior to 2022 where very good. Both in quality and quantity. Maybe tabacuba screwed it all up during the fermentation process, but the farmers grew a lot of good leaf from 2016-2022. Its the reason why the quality of current production is where it is, the raw material was solid. For reference, the photos below were taken in March of 2022. Unfortunately, most of this leaf was ruined in the barns, but its an example of filler and wrapper leaves that make a Monte A look small. The video linked below shows the vast scale of the wrapper fields at Hoyo de Mena, both Salvador and Hector had harvests that looked like this for several of the last few years. But, the cliff is coming. 

 

 

[BossHogg]

23 minutes ago, Corylax18 said:

Tabacuba Should have plenty of leaf for the next 18 to 24 months at a minimum. Even with the fires, the last few harvests prior to 2022 where very good. Both in quality and quantity. Maybe tabacuba screwed it all up during the fermentation process, but the farmers grew a lot of good leaf from 2016-2022. Its the reason why the quality of current prodcution is where it is, the raw material was solid. For reference, the photos below were taken in March of 2022. Unfortunately, most of this leaf was ruined in the barns, but its an example of filler and wrapper leaves that make a Monte A look small. The video linked below shows the vast scale of the wrapper fields at Hoyo de Mena, both Salvador and Hector had harvests that looked like this for several of the last few years. But, the cliff is coming.

Thanks for sharing 👍 

[Rhinoww]

So depressing 

[El Presidente]

3 hours ago, Corylax18 said:

For reference, the photos below were taken in March of 2022. Unfortunately, most of this leaf was ruined in the barns, but its an example of filler and wrapper leaves that make a Monte A look small.

Cory, magnificent photo's/Vid!

Keep in mind that the green leaf will shrink 30-40% during the curing process. 

I can't think of another reason why there is no R&J Churchill/DC (any) in the market right now outside of the fact that they are short of appropriate wrapper. I could be wrong however. 

[helix]

Cool video what a spot.

[helix]

From CA what the hell? . "Despite the adversity, tobacco grower Hector Luís Prieto has been fortunate. “I have recovered 100 percent, thanks to a lot of work and support,” he tells Cigar Aficionado. “The quality this year is muy bueno,” he says, adding that the quantity on his farm was about normal and that all of his barns have been rebuilt."

And this ??  “Habanos S.A. and Tabacuba, as usual, are closely and effectively working to support the tobacco sector in its recovery and minimize the impacts…We can assure that Habanos S.A. will do its best to guarantee the highest quality and the excellence of all its marketed products and will never put demand above quality.” 

 

https://www.cigaraficionado.com/article/cuba-faces-smallest-tobacco-crop-in-history 

[Corylax18]

19 hours ago, helix said:

From CA what the hell? . "Despite the adversity, tobacco grower Hector Luís Prieto has been fortunate. “I have recovered 100 percent, thanks to a lot of work and support,” he tells Cigar Aficionado. “The quality this year is muy bueno,” he says, adding that the quantity on his farm was about normal and that all of his barns have been rebuilt."

And this ??  “Habanos S.A. and Tabacuba, as usual, are closely and effectively working to support the tobacco sector in its recovery and minimize the impacts…We can assure that Habanos S.A. will do its best to guarantee the highest quality and the excellence of all its marketed products and will never put demand above quality.” 

 

https://www.cigaraficionado.com/article/cuba-faces-smallest-tobacco-crop-in-history 

Hector gets "used" quite a bit. I dont know when (or if) Mr. Mottola spoke to him in person. But I did and as of February 27th, there was no tobacco in the ground at Quemada de Rubi and his main barn was just a skeleton, no walls or roof. Maybe they fixed it and grew 4-5 months of tobacco in the last 4-5 weeks, but its not likely. 

My guess, like we've seen previously, is that an HSA or Tabacuba Rep is passing along lies. Hector doesn't speak English, so that quote is highly suspect to me. It doesn't sound like anything I've heard him say before. 

The second quote is just the standard propaganda B.S. they've been spewing for years. Its never been true, it will never be true. Nothing is going to materially change until until the industry is opened up again. 

[helix]

Pitiful that CA is either gullible and not fact checking or somehow in cahoots' .  

[NSXCIGAR]

On 4/7/2023 at 7:30 AM, helix said:

Pitiful that CA is either gullible and not fact checking or somehow in cahoots' .  

The statement "he tells Cigar Aficionado" rings to me like someone at the magazine was handed a statement "from" Hector and wasn't a conversation between Mottola and Hector directly. If that's the case CA should know better than to publish anything other than first-hand information. 

[Ole]

On 4/6/2023 at 9:41 PM, Corylax18 said:

Hector gets "used" quite a bit. I dont know when (or if) Mr. Mottola spoke to him in person. But I did and as of February 27th, there was no tobacco in the ground at Quemada de Rubi and his main barn was just a skeleton, no walls or roof. Maybe they fixed it and grew 4-5 months of tobacco in the last 4-5 weeks, but its not likely. 

My guess, like we've seen previously, is that an HSA or Tabacuba Rep is passing along lies. Hector doesn't speak English, so that quote is highly suspect to me. It doesn't sound like anything I've heard him say before. 

The second quote is just the standard propaganda B.S. they've been spewing for years. Its never been true, it will never be true. Nothing is going to materially change until until the industry is opened up again. 

Thank you.

Going to San Juan y Martinez in two weeks, 5 years since last visit.

Any update on Quemada de Rubi would be appreciated!