One for the economists among us: Resource scarcity. Is inflation locked in for the foreseeable future?

[NSXCIGAR]

15 hours ago, MrBirdman said:

your claim that “the current administration” is holding up production is nonsense too. They are trying to investigate them for violating antitrust laws by keeping production too LOW. That’s pressure just not the kind that’s gonna hold up gas production. 

I would say for oil it's more like a 9-year boom. And again, for many if not most of those years big oil was reporting losses. 

But clearly production isn't low. It's about 10% below the all-time high in 2019. So the idea that production is being intentionally cut is absurd. Antitrust getting involved would be nothing more than political pandering. 

I also never said this administration was holding up production. What they are doing is causing great trepidation among oil companies to invest, which should not be surprising given Biden's multiple statements that he wants to end the fossil fuel industry (whether he actually means that or not.)

https://www.google.com/amp/s/oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Saudi-Energy-Minister-Insufficient-Investment-To-Blame-For-High-Fuel-Prices.amp.html

15 hours ago, MrBirdman said:

Number of refineries doesn’t mean a whole lot, most of those shut were marginal anyway. 

Here are a few articles detailing the significant bottleneck in refining.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-27/the-oil-market-s-big-refining-bottleneck-in-five-charts?leadSource=uverify wall

https://www.wsj.com/articles/bottleneck-fuels-record-high-gas-prices-11653750180

[MrBirdman]

51 minutes ago, NSXCIGAR said:

I would say for oil it's more like a 9-year boom. And again, for many if not most of those years big oil was reporting losses. 

But clearly production isn't low. It's about 10% below the all-time high in 2019. So the idea that production is being intentionally cut is absurd. Antitrust getting involved would be nothing more than political pandering. 

I also never said this administration was holding up production. What they are doing is causing great trepidation among oil companies to invest, which should not be surprising given Biden's multiple statements that he wants to end the fossil fuel industry (whether he actually means that or not.)

https://www.google.com/amp/s/oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Saudi-Energy-Minister-Insufficient-Investment-To-Blame-For-High-Fuel-Prices.amp.html

Here are a few articles detailing the significant bottleneck in refining.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-27/the-oil-market-s-big-refining-bottleneck-in-five-charts?leadSource=uverify wall

https://www.wsj.com/articles/bottleneck-fuels-record-high-gas-prices-11653750180

Dude, oil execs are very open about not increasing production to keep prices high. It’s not a secret. 

I’m gonna bow out here since I sense you’re one of those members who can’t take an L and will continue consuming my time over a minor point I made (which is irrefutably true). 

[NSXCIGAR]

1 hour ago, MrBirdman said:

oil execs are very open about not increasing production to keep prices high. It’s not a secret.

No oil executive has ever said they are not increasing production to keep prices high. What they have said is they are not increasing production because they are reluctant to invest in that new production. Oil is a long-term investment. In addition, more oil production would run up against already existing refinery limitations.

As far as refining capacity it has gone up about 15% since 1985. Total. So while it hasn't gone down (although 2022 is an 8-year low) the bottleneck is clear when trying to produce at historic levels. Claiming "it hasn't gone down" over and over is a essentially a red herring. Barely going up since 1985 is the issue. 

I guess Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ, Forbes and NPR are all wrong. MSNBC must be "irrefutably" correct. I post charts, I (and others) post several articles but I see none for your "irrefutable" facts. 

You're going to have to show me some charts, articles or quotes before I take any Ls. "It's not a secret" doesn't cut it. 

[rcarlson]

[MrBirdman]

Sad that you guys take one minor point about renewables and an increase in domestic production and have to turn it into an enormous row with a variety of tangential arguments I didn’t make just so you can claim you were right about subjects I didn’t even raise. Very sad.

Though I do particularly like the sophistry of “they aren’t intentionally keeping production low, they aren’t investing in new production!!” Obviously the two are one in the same. Whether it’s the market or investors driving the decision, the effect is the same. And in any case domestic production isn’t going to have a huge impact on a global market.

My original comment about inflation stands - renewables aren’t making it worse. 

[BEVOSREVENGE]

On 11/12/2022 at 8:48 AM, MrBirdman said:

they aren’t investing in new production

This is a true statement, whether you want to believe it or not.  

 

On 11/11/2022 at 11:26 PM, MrBirdman said:

Dude, oil execs are very open about not increasing production to keep prices high. It’s not a secret. 

Karine Jean-Pierre is that you?

[MrBirdman]

1 hour ago, BEVOSREVENGE said:

This is a true statement, whether you want to believe it or not.  

I never said otherwise. 

1 hour ago, BEVOSREVENGE said:

Karine Jean-Pierre is that you?

I don't know how to even respond to something this asinine. 

[NSXCIGAR]

On 11/12/2022 at 6:48 AM, MrBirdman said:

Though I do particularly like the sophistry of “they aren’t intentionally keeping production low, they aren’t investing in new production!!” Obviously the two are one in the same

No, they aren't the same thing at all. One is an unintended consequence and the other is intentional ploy.

Why would a company invest in new production if their industry appears to be under attack? I guess they can't win. Make unprofitable investments or else! 

You make factually loose statements like "oil execs are very open about not increasing production to keep prices high. It’s not a secret," provide no evidence, and then seem to get indignant when it's picked apart. I don't know if you're going for hyperbole or what. 

[Zigatoh]

6 hours ago, NSXCIGAR said:

No, they aren't the same thing at all. One is an unintended consequence and the other is intentional ploy.

Why would a company invest in new production if their industry appears to be under attack? I guess they can't win. Make unprofitable investments or else! 

You make factually loose statements like "oil execs are very open about not increasing production to keep prices high. It’s not a secret," provide no evidence, and then seem to get indignant when it's picked apart. I don't know if you're going for hyperbole or what. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61188579

"The world's major oil exporters have agreed to cut production by two million barrels a day.

Members of oil producers' group Opec+ - which includes Russia - are taking the action to help boost oil prices."

Unless everyone is just talking about US production...

[MrBirdman]

41 minutes ago, Zigatoh said:

Unless everyone is just talking about US production...

I wasn’t. 

[NSXCIGAR]

10 hours ago, Zigatoh said:

Unless everyone is just talking about US production...

I am. 

[El Presidente]

It is truly distressing to witness the decline of the art of discussion. 

What was once a crossing of intellectual swords in the pursuit of truth and the testing of one's arguments rigor, is now a contest of blunt clubs devoid of wit, respect or finesse. 

 

 

 

[Puros Y Vino]

9 hours ago, El Presidente said:

It is truly distressing to witness the decline of the art of discussion. 

What was once a crossing of intellectual swords in the pursuit of truth and the testing of one's arguments rigor, is now a contest of blunt clubs devoid of wit, respect or finesse.

This has been the case for over a decade IMO.  Or thousands of years via the "divide and conquer" tactic.  Everything is broken down to supporting a "team".  Mindless mobs show their undying support over their favourite sports team and that sentiment has permeated into almost everything else.  Are you Team "Mac" or "Intel"?  Are you Team Johnny or Amber, etc, etc....

[MrBirdman]

9 hours ago, El Presidente said:

It is truly distressing to witness the decline of the art of discussion. 

What was once a crossing of intellectual swords in the pursuit of truth and the testing of one's arguments rigor, is now a contest of blunt clubs devoid of wit, respect or finesse. 

Please just let this thread die.It’s pretty clear that at some point no one was on the same page as to what the topic was.

[El Presidente]

7 minutes ago, Puros Y Vino said:

This has been the case for over a decade IMO.  Or thousands of years via the "divide and conquer" tactic.  Everything is broken down to supporting a "team".  Mindless mobs show their undying support over their favourite sports team and that sentiment has permeated into almost everything else.  Are you Team "Mac" or "Intel"?  Are you Team Johnny or Amber, etc, etc....

That is part of it Frank and one of the reasons that I take great personal delight in the wealth dimunition of Facebook / Google. Two monoliths who built algorithm empires that suck on the human soul. 

I love watching a great debate. Intellect, argument, respect, wit. 

It is a dying art as can be seen on this thread.  All members should attempt to revive it. 

[BEVOSREVENGE]

On 11/12/2022 at 8:48 AM, MrBirdman said:

And in any case domestic production isn’t going to have a huge impact on a global market.

I disagree with this statement.  Relative to the discussion of inflation, O&G prices are germane.  Parachuted money given to people to sit at home (worldwide) is also germane.  

My final comment on the oil subject is presented as a visual aid to assist in understanding that the largest single producer and consumer of oil does impact the global market.

 

[MrBirdman]

8 hours ago, BEVOSREVENGE said:

I disagree with this statement.  Relative to the discussion of inflation, O&G prices are germane.  Parachuted money given to people to sit at home (worldwide) is also germane.  

My final comment on the oil subject is presented as a visual aid to assist in understanding that the largest single producer and consumer of oil does impact the global market.

This is a good example of the problem I referred to above - our statements are not mutually exclusive. “Not huge” is not the same as “negligible.”

In other words, we don’t disagree that the US affects oil prices; it’s a question of whether it can unilaterally stem energy inflation through production increases. It can’t, and I suspect you’d agree.

Also, you chart nicely proves what my whole point was initially, that we are bigger energy producers now than we were in the 70’s. Somehow someone then decided to change the subject to who knows what.

[BEVOSREVENGE]

3 minutes ago, MrBirdman said:

This is a good example of the problem I referred to above - our statements are not mutually exclusive. “Not huge” is not the same as “negligible.”

If we were talking about Liechtenstein, I would agree with you.

NMTS

[MrBirdman]

3 minutes ago, BEVOSREVENGE said:

If we were talking about Liechtenstein, I would agree with you.

NMTS

I have no idea what those words mean in Lichtenstein but in this country negligible and "not huge" are not synonyms. 

[Bijan]

47 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

That is part of it Frank and one of the reasons that I take great personal delight in the wealth dimunition of Facebook / Google. Two monoliths who built algorithm empires that suck on the human soul. 

I hate to say it but TikTok is both not soul sucking and a great place to see things debunked and debated (in 3 minute video pieces).

Also all sorts of dumb funny videos for sure, but a surprising amount of interesting political content.

[PuroDiario]

1 hour ago, Bijan said:

I hate to say it but TikTok is both not soul sucking and a great place to see things debunked and debated (in 3 minute video pieces).

Also all sorts of dumb funny videos for sure, but a surprising amount of interesting political content.

Great body types dancing half naked to the latest industry promoted tune also good on TikTok! Jajajaja 🤣 

[JohnnyO]

All this conversation confirms that my search for a 1968-70 Plymouth Road Runner/Satellite is more important than ever. The ability to burn rubber all over the neighborhood and waste gasoline is a top priority. God forbid in 10 years everything is EV and gasoline is $50/gallon. John 

[BettyHumpder]

each generation complains about the next, the downfall of it all, and the dumbing-down of society since the beginning of time.

[MrBirdman]

4 hours ago, PuroDiario said:

Great body types dancing half naked to the latest industry promoted tune also good on TikTok! Jajajaja 🤣 

The problem with TikTok is more it’s effect on young people precisely because 99% of success on the platform is driven by how beautiful you are. Social media use is associated with low self esteem and depression. Of course if you’re looking to perv out watching adolescent guys and girls dance half nude it’s a paradise.

For me it’s a cesspool of navel-gazing insanity. 

[PuroDiario]

6 minutes ago, MrBirdman said:

The problem with TikTok is more it’s effect on young people precisely because 99% of success on the platform is driven by how beautiful you are. Social media use is associated with low self esteem and depression. Of course if you’re looking to perv out watching adolescent guys and girls dance half nude it’s a paradise.

For me it’s a cesspool of navel-gazing insanity. 

Agreed. It is a reflection of society however algorithmically superboosted and at global scale. Meaning the issue is not the tool (the media) is the user (society) as with most things... And for social media specifically there is limited history of utilization as to determine the boundaries and limitations that are appropriate and needed, just getting started so it will get fixed just let regulat(ors)ion bridge the gap and the lag they operate under. Also the algorithm shows you what you consume, which is probably the first true mirror of an individual’s inner workings we have experienced to date which at a deeper level should grant a conversation beyond regulation.

That said, TikTok not sure a driver of inflation so allow me to post this article which I think insightful though away from Oil and Gas discussion specifics to re-guide the thread to its purpose.

https://www.bridgewater.com/research-and-insights/an-update-from-our-cios-progressing-through-the-tightening-cycle

and also this recent memo from Howard Marks monthlies which insightfully bifurcates between macro perspectives and forecasting and as a permabear he is gives insight into a lot of good stuff in his library. 
 

https://cnt.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/the-illusion-of-knowledge