HSA Price Rise.

[Duxnutz]

1 hour ago, TBird55 said:

The amount of  taxes in OZ, shouldn't be allowed. Do you think, that in the future, there is any chance of a reduction in the amount of taxes that the state has imposed on you all,

Close to ~$775+ in tax per kg already and from memory in our recent government budget they announced further increases. 

Doesn't affect me too much but we're all living on borrowed time. 

[Fugu]

3 hours ago, semifan1 said:

This is the easiest thing  to say^^, but if it's something you like or  you enjoy. What are you going to do except bitch and complain since you still want it. 

If you want it so hard (or think you "need" it), that you still buy it anyway, well, then it is worth the price obviously. But - consider this - do you really need it to be happy (read: a happy smoker)? Or are you just following a hype?

Not saying that I like it, but - folks, let's face it - WE are the market. All I am saying is, all complaining is without avail. Prices reflect demand (actually, they even appear to be driving demand these days...). Of help would only be a major change in general buying decisions of us customers.

People falling for "bling" editions, double and triple banders (and - yes - I have to admit being guilty of that, too, at times ...), while at the same time never having smoked a single Monte No.3 (and that already is a 'premium' marca, but you have to look hard for a "generic" Coronas these days...), are driving the price race and the cannibalization of proven, solid and affordable regular production. Apart from the occasional exceptional special edition (such as e.g. Party D1, Cohiba 1966 springing to mind), there rarely is a true quality plus over regulars. As long as people willingly shell out the coin for a Monte 80 Aniv. or XXX-Anejados I don't see any justification for complaints about HSA's pricing policy. They are just playing along.

[PigFish]

1 minute ago, Fugu said:

If you want it so hard (or think you "need" it, that you still buy it anyway, well then it is worth the price obvuiously. But - consider this - do you really need it to be happy (read a happy smoker)? Or are you just following a hype?

Not saying that I like it, but - folks, let's face it - WE are the market. All I am saying is, all complaining is without avail. Prices reflect demand (actually, they even appear to be driving demand these days...). Of help would only be a major change in general buying decisions of us customers.

People falling for "bling" editions, double and triple banders (and - yes - I have to admit being guilty of that, too, at times ...), while at the same time never having smoked a single Monte No.3 (and that already is a 'premium' marca, but you have to look hard for a "generic" Coronas these days...), are driving the price race and the cannibalization of proven, solid and affordable regular production. Apart from the occasional exceptional special edition (such as e.g. Party D1, Cohiba 1966 springing to mind), there rarely is a true quality plus over regulars. As long as people willingly shell out the coin for a Monte 80 Aniv. or XXX-Anejados I don't see any justification for complaints about HSA's pricing policy. They are just playing along.

God bless you brother.

This IS the state of affairs for the Cuban cigar. The minute that cigars became a thing to collect, they started to become a thing they were never meant to be, a simple, inexpensive and enjoyable custom... 

Paying top dollar to 'see' if you can score a box of untested and overpriced cigars is just nuts. This is why I don't do it.

I am again off the train. While I like to continue to add to my 'humble' smoking stock, I am not even going to pay the old prices for a box that is  25 to 30% garbage! Tabacuba abuses its customers. What is worse, we not only put up with it, we encourage it...

-Piggy

[einzelgaenger]

Relative to the other things in this increasingly messy world that can promise an hour of no-strings-attached bliss (of which there are very few, if any), I say a Cuban Cigar is still quite affordable. 

[JR Kipling]

For me personally, if prices get too far out of line, I'll spend more of my tobacco money on pipe tobacco. I can smoke good tobacco in a pipe for a fraction of the cost of cigars now. I like them both, but will go almost exclusively to the pipe if things get crazy in the habanos world.

[Puros Y Vino]

11 hours ago, Lotusguy said:

The flipping game is alive and well - still plenty of room for price increases before people stop buying, apparently. Just take one look at Facebook.

Yeah. It's getting ridiculous.  People are hoarding RE's and EL's and either auctioning them off for 2 to 3x or up to 5x via a Powerball style lottery.  Even worse, people who win the Powerballs will then in turn Powerball it again!    Sadly, it's a lot of Canadians doing this on the Canadian FB groups.  For what they're spending they can easily hop down to Havana for 3 days, bring back 50 cigars and have had a good time!  I'm OK with paying a premium on vintage stuff but the new EL/RE's? No way.  These days I'm more interesting in stocking up on my regular production favourites.  

[OZCUBAN]

7 hours ago, TBird55 said:

The amount of  taxes in OZ, shouldn't be allowed. Do you think, that in the future, there is any chance of a reduction in the amount of taxes that the state has imposed on you all,

Er NO ?By if the government have their way no one will be smoking them irrespective of price ,it's the stark reality of it 

cheers

[Benzopyrene]

Guess I need to start getting my Cohibas direct from el lagito.  

[Boss Hog]

4 hours ago, bundwallah said:

Yeah. It's getting ridiculous.  People are hoarding RE's and EL's and either auctioning them off for 2 to 3x or up to 5x via a Powerball style lottery.  Even worse, people who win the Powerballs will then in turn Powerball it again!    Sadly, it's a lot of Canadians doing this on the Canadian FB groups.

And to think that these same individuals consider themselves brothers of the leaf.

Sad indeed, my fellow brother.

[TNT009]

Start incorporating more Opus, Padrons and Ligas into my collection.

[NSXCIGAR]

16 hours ago, Fugu said:

Don't complain - just don't buy.

As long as you buy prices simply ARE justified.

I don't think it's a matter of buying at all, but buying more. As price rises, less of the good or service is demanded, i.e. one might buy 2 boxes instead of 3. The potential issue will be inventory not purchased by distributors. When it begins piling up prices must drop. This is of course dependent on the great crop producing more cigars and not just increasing quality. If they can increase quality without ending up with excess stock then they might even be able to raise prices more!

[El Presidente]

3 minutes ago, NSXCIGAR said:

I don't think it's a matter of buying at all, but buying more. As price rises, less of the good or service is demanded, i.e. one might buy 2 boxes instead of 3. The potential issue will be inventory not purchased by distributors. When it begins piling up prices must drop. This is of course dependent on the great crop producing more cigars and not just increasing quality. If they can increase quality without ending up with excess stock then they might even be able to raise prices more!

The only excess stock they will have is what people won't buy.........and I will lay whatever bet you like that those cigars will not be Cohiba. 10% increase, 20% or 30%.

There has been such an influx of new buyers from Eastern Europe, Asia, Middle East and North America over the past 8 years that shows no sign of slowing down.  Cohiba is both a marketing statement and a cigar (whether people like it or not). 

 

 

 

 

[maxcjs0101]

18 hours ago, NSXCIGAR said:

I guess HSA is going to find out exactly where supply and demand meet when production ramps back up in 2018 and 2019 with these higher prices. They may find themselves sitting on a lot more stock than they'd like wishing they had many of the discontinued cigars of the last 15 years back in production. Instead they'll just be unable to sell all the Wide Churchills, Mag 54, PSE2 and QdO 54s they're cranking out en masse.

You forgot they have the "Anejados" band & "Revisado" hot stamp.

Lots of stock? No problem. Keep them for a few years, put on the magic Anejados band and stamp revisado on the back of the box.

[TNT009]

25 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

The only excess stock they will have is what people won't buy.........and I will lay whatever bet you like that those cigars will not be Cohiba. 10% increase, 20% or 30%.

There has been such an influx of new buyers from Eastern Europe, Asia, Middle East and North America over the past 8 years that shows no sign of slowing down.  Cohiba is both a marketing statement and a cigar (whether people like it or not). 

 

 

 

 

Good points, at least for me it'll be one, maybe two Behike boxes and I can settle for cheaper makers. So supply will be there, but point is for how long.

[NSXCIGAR]

2 hours ago, El Presidente said:

The only excess stock they will have is what people won't buy.........and I will lay whatever bet you like that those cigars will not be Cohiba. 10% increase, 20% or 30%.

There has been such an influx of new buyers from Eastern Europe, Asia, Middle East and North America over the past 8 years that shows no sign of slowing down.  Cohiba is both a marketing statement and a cigar (whether people like it or not). 

I wouldn't be betting against you on that to be sure. But there is a supply and demand intersect somewhere. I guess the question is, do you think you could confidently move 30-50% more product if you had it at 3-10% higher prices (assuming 2014-2016 levels of quality)? If yes, than perhaps they're still underpricing, or at least accurately pricing, and they're in fine shape. 

It will be interesting to see if this point is approached with the combination of these price rises and the record amount of tobacco coming into the picture. I understand there are a lot of games they can play with aging, special releases and whatnot, and of course new customers and emerging markets. But the bottom line is that at some point in the supply and demand curves there is a breaking point. Not saying it will happen soon but it is a possibility, particularly if quality doesn't increase and number of cigars produced increases and number of vitolas offered continues to stagnate with steady losses of classic vitolas and models.

[joeruby]

2 hours ago, El Presidente said:

The only excess stock they will have is what people won't buy.........and I will lay whatever bet you like that those cigars will not be Cohiba. 10% increase, 20% or 30%.

There has been such an influx of new buyers from Eastern Europe, Asia, Middle East and North America over the past 8 years that shows no sign of slowing down.  Cohiba is both a marketing statement and a cigar (whether people like it or not). 

 

 

 

 

'There has been such an influx of new buyers from Eastern Europe, Asia, Middle East and North America over the past 8 years'

I agree, its all market driven.

Interesting, about 8 years since the GFC, and then one of the biggest  market booms which followed ..

Wait until another financial crisis or GFC occurs, I bet a lot of these new buyers wont be too keen on smoking premium Cohiba when the markets correct, as they always do.

History always repeats..

[Lotusguy]

Yeah. It's getting ridiculous.  People are hoarding RE's and EL's and either auctioning them off for 2 to 3x or up to 5x via a Powerball style lottery.  Even worse, people who win the Powerballs will then in turn Powerball it again!    Sadly, it's a lot of Canadians doing this on the Canadian FB groups.  For what they're spending they can easily hop down to Havana for 3 days, bring back 50 cigars and have had a good time!  I'm OK with paying a premium on vintage stuff but the new EL/RE's? No way.  These days I'm more interesting in stocking up on my regular production favourites.  

It's those powerballs and stuff that I really don't get - you're actually just buying a *chance* to win that particular lot.

[Winchester21]

I will get mad and bitch about it. But I love Cohibas so as long as they continue to be good I will just suck it up and pay the price. Life is too short for bad whiskey and cheap cigars. You only go around once

[Fugu]

21 hours ago, NSXCIGAR said:

I don't think it's a matter of buying at all, but buying more.

What I was meaning to say is, it is not so much a matter of whether, but what you buy. Buy intelligently - buy price conscious, buy quality, buy formats that can actually be "smoked", widely ignore "exclusives", ignore overpriced. On a broader basis of customers voting with their wallet, such and only such could make HSA move in a certain direction. Following the first cigar boom of the 90s prices actually fell. There are chances the new newbs will learn their lesson, too, and the market will settle and consolidate.

21 hours ago, NSXCIGAR said:

As price rises, less of the good or service is demanded, i.e. one might buy 2 boxes instead of 3.

That's part of the plan obviously: Make more profit from less product (or prod. diluted with volado). That's why we have what feels like >50% special eds.
As long as people buy that, I am the last to blame Cuba for that business model.

And - instead of leaving the major margin to the flippers (classified Bordeaux had done exactly the same a few years ago, keeping more bottles in their stock and/or withdrawing from the primeur system at all), they want to "adjust" pricing to keep a larger bit of the cake for themselves (that's actually what we were debating about a year ago). They may be Cuban, they may be socialist, but they are certainly not stupid. Flip side (pun not intended) of this is - the more rapidly prices rise, the more you are fueling hoarding and flipping... before you finally make the bubble burst.

19 hours ago, NSXCIGAR said:

and the record amount of tobacco coming into the picture.

Not sure whether we are really speaking about a "record" harvest or whether Cuba will just be back to "normal" (whatever that might be ...).

[PigFish]

I am somewhat insulted by this as many of you are. Yet, I have enough cigars to last me to my death, I am sure. I largely buy cigars for some security purposes, if I live to 100... and I surly doubt it... -LOL I also buy some cigars because I am active in the community, this one at least, and some purchases keep me current. It is nice to have a box coming now and again. They are typically not fancy, or expensive or special, PC's and sub-PC's to smoke day in and day out. Frankly, I never need to buy another cigar.

For me it is actually encouraging to see online retailers expand their markets into NC cigars. I hope it works out for them. I have no interest in them but it is a move in the right direction. Sure Tabacuba can feel smug in its monopoly position (for now), but frankly they are stupid about it. As they go about haphazardly following the expats and what they produce. At the same time they lose market share. That share will be hard to win back.

I largely think that their dream of the mother-load with the southern part of the North American market is largely lost to them. Another 10 years and they might not even survive there in a competitive arena, not the way they are headed. There are 'premium' NC brands and models as well. No, I don't smoke them... not now anyway. But by the time they figure out a way to make something comparable to the RGPC, well, I will be!

The market is not just the high end segment. This is a huge mistake to make. I don't know why so many people seem to fall in this 'all or none' mindset about how to produce cigars. I have said in many times. The brand names that are co-owned by members of HSA and Tabacuba, the NC brands have a wide range of models and those models are inclusive, not exclusive. Tabacuba is nailing its own coffin.

I don't really care if it is tulip bulbs or tobacco leaves, this collector stuff is a bubble. I should be more in tune to it, so I can scalp some of these morons myself. All this coin for a bunch of rolled tobacco! Insanity!!! MHO...

Speculators will do to this what they tend to do to every market that they ride high on. They burn it out. I am not saying that one should not ride the wave, but only as a segment of one's core business. It is not a sustaining model.

If real estate falls in price, gold and currencies as well, tobacco too will have its day in court. Remember when oil was $140 a bbl., and we were all told it will never roll back. Ahh, yes, market soothsayers strike again!

I am glad that some of the online sellers of Cuban cigars are showing their forward thinking by stocking other cigar makers' products. Tabacuba should take note of this. They don't have these people by the gonads like they do La Casa owners and other market partners.

I love Cuban cigars. They are my only choice today. But tomorrow is a new day, and this dynasty is dying. Anyone with objective eyes can see it. Tabacuba is mismanaged and has no vision for the future. They are disrespectful of the their customer and they are downright abusive to us. They have been caught cheating their marketing partners, the farmers, their vendors etc. They are a third rate company from the third world and they act like it. Their days are numbered... 

If the smallest crack opens the dam of communism on that island, Tabacuba will be bought out and sold out by the people it has abused in less time it takes to write 'good riddance.' After all this, it will truly make me laugh to watch some 'imperialist' company go over there and run these bastards out of town! Ahh, the great laugh I will have if a Spanish company once more runs that island...!

History repeats itself! Here is to hoping. Until then, I still have a supply of Diplomaticos #1's!

FU again Tabacuba!

-the Pig

[PigFish]

3 hours ago, Fugu said:

What I was meaning to say is, it is not so much a matter of whether, but what you buy. Buy intelligently - buy price concious, buy quality, buy formats that can actually be "smoked", widely ignore "exclusives", ignore overpriced. On a broader basis of customers voting with their wallet, such and only such could make HSA move in a certain direction. Following the first cigar boom of the 90s prices actually fell. There are chances the new newbs will learn their lesson, too, and the market will settle and consolidate.

That's part of the plan obviously: Make more profit from less product (or prod. diluted with volado). That's why we have what feels like >50% special eds.
As long as people buy that, I am the last to blame Cuba for that business model.

And - instead of leaving the major margin to the flippers (classified Bordeaux had done exactly the same a few years ago, keeping more bottles in their stock and/or withdrawing from the primeur system at all), they want to "adjust" pricing to keep a larger bit of the cake for themselves (that's actually what we were debating about a year ago). They may be Cuban, they may be socialist, but they are certainly not stupid. Flip side (pun not intended) of this is - the more rapidly prices rise, the more you are fueling hoarding and flipping... before you finally make the bubble burst.

Not sure whether we are really speaking about a "record" harvest or whether Cuba will just be back to "normal" (whatever that might be ...).

... anther great post my friend! -R

[Cep]

so...  what is product diluted with volado?   Which cigars are we talking about here?

 

[83Nation]

Forgive me for a potentially irrelevant question, but was there a comparable price jump in the 90's when the whole CC craze started? I wasn't into cigars back then, so I have no frame of reference for this, but would think that CC vs NC prices have somewhat been on the same trajectory over the past 25 years. It's possible that NC makers have been raising steadily over this time, while the CC powers to be make fewer, bigger jumps, making these jumps very painful. Plus, it seems that Capitalist Countries would announce a price hike on X Date in the future allowing everyone to jump in at the old prices and keep them happy for a while.
To take it a step further, could this be in anticipation of the US opening up trade with Cuba? A year ago, I would have bet my next 24:24 order that this would happen in the next few years. Now, I'm not so sure.


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[83Nation]

To take it a step further, could this be in anticipation of the US opening up trade with Cuba? A year ago, I would have bet my next 24:24 order that this would happen in the next few years. Now, I'm not so sure.


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Forgot to finish my thought...

Now, I'm not so sure, but I'm sure the people that decided to raise the price, have better intel than me!


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[heminway186]

On 2017-6-5 at 2:53 AM, Lotusguy said:

The flipping game is alive and well - still plenty of room for price increases before people stop buying, apparently. Just take one look at Facebook.

There is one guy who uses a grey market distributor, buys their monthly on sale products, and then like clockwork flips them at 50-100% margin. Thankfully members of that community have become increasingly snarky towards him. As I get more and more into this hobby I am more and more thankful for clearance mondays on FOH. Picking up boxes for even less than what they go for in Cuba. Utterly brilliant.