Which Regular Production Cigars Appreciate in Value the Most with Age?

[LateApex]

Which regular production sticks appreciate in value the most with age?  (5-10+ years)

I've noticed CoRo and CoLa carry a consistent premium with a few years, for example.  What would a short list look like of others that have a demonstrated, predictable trajectory? 

 

[NSXCIGAR]

Cohiba Linea Clasica models by far, particularly the Lanceros, Robustos, Esplendidos. Cohiba ELs probably more. Also the Reservas/Gran Reservas tend to perform very well. I'd throw in some real limited ERs like the Edmundo Dantes and La Escepcions, and most of the 109s. Hunters & Frankau ERs probably as well. 

[Bartolomeo]

Cohiba.....nuff said

and then any discontinued boxes will also rise faster than current production

[Philc2001]

Most anything aged goes up, but not all. Cohiba seems to grow faster than other regular production lines. Then you have the discontinued vitolas, but again, not all discontinued vitolas appreciate equally. If they were popular to begin with, they become more sought after when they are disco'd. I recently saw some 2000-2002 Tainos going for $1200, Punch SS2 going for $1300, and Punch SS1 going for $1500.  Some discontinued Lonsdales also fetch high dollars. Big vitolas, i.e. churchills, and DCs, seem to appreciate faster as well.  But it's not very consistent, so I can't quite figure out why some appreciate more than others besides the obvious limited production stuff.

[GP012]

Although not quite regular production, I'd also add select Regionals or EL's in "connoisseur" vitolas otherwise known as "HSA, WTF WERE YOU THINKING DISCONTINUING THIS VITOLA!" 

For RE's: PL Lonsdales, most any 109, PL Magnificos, Boli Especiales #2, PL Encantos (there may be a theme here), La Escepcion Selectos Finos and RA 898s (supposed duds now but I'd venture a guess they will turn around) all come to mind.

[LLC]

Although not quite regular production, I'd also add select Regionals or EL's in "connoisseur" vitolas otherwise known as "HSA, WTF WERE YOU THINKING DISCONTINUING THIS VITOLA!" 

For RE's: PL Lonsdales, most any 109, PL Magnificos, Boli Especiales #2, PL Encantos (there may be a theme here), La Escepcion Selectos Finos and RA 898s (supposed duds now but I'd venture a guess they will turn around) all come to mind.

I'd add the 2013 ERDM Infante RE Cuba. They were 59 CUC and go for many times that on the secondary market.


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[Puros Y Vino]

Cohiba Linea Classica for sure. Esplendidos always seem to be in low supply which tells me collectors sock them away.  BHK's are starting to appreciate especially given the last few bad seasons, wrapper and medio tiempo shortages.  But pretty much anything Cohiba. I'd then go with Sir Winstons.  Monte Especiales No 1 and A's seem to have more demand than supply.  You're seeing LGC MdO 2's jump as well.  Trinidad Fundadores are a good bet. Anything long and skinny these days seems to garner interest. 

[Notsocleaver]

The safe answer is always Cohiba. Just know that if you are buying now, you are getting on the train after a massive price hike. The guys who bought CoRo a couple of years ago can be making 30% just by reselling them at today's prices, with no up charge for age.

There really hasn't been enough time for everything to shake out, but it feels like some of the recent 'sure fire' investment buys like the 2014 Cohiba LE and the La Escepcion Don Jose haven't had the skyrocket returns that previous releases have had. Not that they are losing money on the resale market, I'm just not seeing people get those 50% returns. Maybe in time.

If you can get Bolivar Coronas Gigantes at retail you might look at that. But at this point we have seen discontinued cigars occasionally reappear, so even that is no guarantee.

For contrarian play, consider any petit corona you can find on sale. Prices seem to inching up each year. My hunch that Habanos SA is trying to position them between the minuto and robusto price point rather than being just basically the a few bucks more than a minuto.

[NSXCIGAR]

2 hours ago, Notsocleaver said:

The safe answer is always Cohiba. Just know that if you are buying now, you are getting on the train after a massive price hike. The guys who bought CoRo a couple of years ago can be making 30% just by reselling them at today's prices, with no up charge for age.

There really hasn't been enough time for everything to shake out, but it feels like some of the recent 'sure fire' investment buys like the 2014 Cohiba LE and the La Escepcion Don Jose haven't had the skyrocket returns that previous releases have had. Not that they are losing money on the resale market, I'm just not seeing people get those 50% returns. Maybe in time.

If you can get Bolivar Coronas Gigantes at retail you might look at that. But at this point we have seen discontinued cigars occasionally reappear, so even that is no guarantee.

For contrarian play, consider any petit corona you can find on sale. Prices seem to inching up each year. My hunch that Habanos SA is trying to position them between the minuto and robusto price point rather than being just basically the a few bucks more than a minuto.

I'm not so sure I agree with all of this. True, as there is a serious shortage of Cohiba Lanceros, CE, Robustos and Esplendidos at the moment, any stock is selling at a 5-10% premium over 2014-2015 prices. As these Cohiba models tend to appreciate at 10-20% per year anyway, I see this as nothing unusual and those who happened to buy in 2016 are getting a bit of a value bump for a year, but the normal appreciation of Cohiba will carry it past that in 6-12 months anyway.

As far as the Cohiba Robustos Supremos, the average price I can see right now from several trusted vendors is about $640. The average price around late 2015 when these were widely released was around $450. So in a span of less than 18 months the CRS has appreciated at an incredible rate of 42%--very much in line with all the other Cohiba ELs, if not even more. This one is not a slow starter by any means.

The La Escepcion SF was a very unique release and no one knew if there would ever be another La Escepcion release. Also, it was very well-reviewed cigar. And finally, only 2,000 boxes were made. The Don Jose was far less positively received and 4,000 boxes were made--double the SF's production. The Don Jose also showed that it's likely the La Escepcion brand will be seen again in the future. So the SF's high value compared to the DJs lower value is explained completely.

One can even compare the Cohiba Linea Clasica with the Behike. The original price of Behike 52 was around $420 in 2010-2011. In 2015 a DEC 10 box sold at auction for $940. That's a 120% increase in about 5 years, or about 25% appreciation--not that far off from the Linea Clasica appreciation of nearly 20% per year (CoRo typically doubles in value after about 5-6 years)

The Cohiba Linea Clasica is where I'd put my money if I was looking for value in the short-to-medium term. I'm not sure if they really command the value at 10-20 years that certain special production might but over a 5-10 year period, a box of El Laguito Cohiba Robustos is about as good an investment as one can make in cigars.

[Notsocleaver]

2 hours ago, NSXCIGAR said:

I'm not so sure I agree with all of this. True, as there is a serious shortage of Cohiba Lanceros, CE, Robustos and Esplendidos at the moment, any stock is selling at a 5-10% premium over 2014-2015 prices. As these Cohiba models tend to appreciate at 10-20% per year anyway, I see this as nothing unusual and those who happened to buy in 2016 are getting a bit of a value bump for a year, but the normal appreciation of Cohiba will carry it past that in 6-12 months anyway.

As far as the Cohiba Robustos Supremos, the average price I can see right now from several trusted vendors is about $640. The average price around late 2015 when these were widely released was around $450. So in a span of less than 18 months the CRS has appreciated at an incredible rate of 42%--very much in line with all the other Cohiba ELs, if not even more. This one is not a slow starter by any means.

The La Escepcion SF was a very unique release and no one knew if there would ever be another La Escepcion release. Also, it was very well-reviewed cigar. And finally, only 2,000 boxes were made. The Don Jose was far less positively received and 4,000 boxes were made--double the SF's production. The Don Jose also showed that it's likely the La Escepcion brand will be seen again in the future. So the SF's high value compared to the DJs lower value is explained completely.

One can even compare the Cohiba Linea Clasica with the Behike. The original price of Behike 52 was around $420 in 2010-2011. In 2015 a DEC 10 box sold at auction for $940. That's a 120% increase in about 5 years, or about 25% appreciation--not that far off from the Linea Clasica appreciation of nearly 20% per year (CoRo typically doubles in value after about 5-6 years)

The Cohiba Linea Clasica is where I'd put my money if I was looking for value in the short-to-medium term. I'm not sure if they really command the value at 10-20 years that certain special production might but over a 5-10 year period, a box of El Laguito Cohiba Robustos is about as good an investment as one can make in cigars.

Dont get me wrong, I think Cohiba is still a good buy. I don't think the bottom is going to fallout, I just think you shouldn't anticipate returns on stuff bought right now to match quite what previous gains have been, especially with the shortages bumping up prices and the growing talk that 2016 will be considered a down year when people start talking about vintages. 10 years from now, I can see people asking about cigar vintages and getting 'just skip the 2016 CoRo and get some 2014 instead'. Almost certainly not '2001 CoLa in cardboard packs selling for less than current production' levels of bad, but maybe not what you could have made in previous years.

I agree 100% with your take on the La Escepcion, but I still think people were rushing to buy it like it was going to be an investment purchase and that was a mistake imho.

The places I'm seeing CRS for ~$640 I also see Punch Punch for ~$270. Given that I recently bought some Punch on sale for $180, I am sure I can conclude that Punch is much better investment, appreciating by 50% in the time it took to ship to me. Last private sale of CRS I saw dropped to $470 before it moved last week. That gave me pause, I thought it would have been snapped up instantly. But that is just one anecdote and ultimately, if you can find a buyer who will give you your price and you can sit on your stock until they do, what does it matter? 

 

[NSXCIGAR]

7 hours ago, Notsocleaver said:

Dont get me wrong, I think Cohiba is still a good buy. I don't think the bottom is going to fallout, I just think you shouldn't anticipate returns on stuff bought right now to match quite what previous gains have been, especially with the shortages bumping up prices and the growing talk that 2016 will be considered a down year when people start talking about vintages. 10 years from now, I can see people asking about cigar vintages and getting 'just skip the 2016 CoRo and get some 2014 instead'. Almost certainly not '2001 CoLa in cardboard packs selling for less than current production' levels of bad, but maybe not what you could have made in previous years.

I agree 100% with your take on the La Escepcion, but I still think people were rushing to buy it like it was going to be an investment purchase and that was a mistake imho.

The places I'm seeing CRS for ~$640 I also see Punch Punch for ~$270. Given that I recently bought some Punch on sale for $180, I am sure I can conclude that Punch is much better investment, appreciating by 50% in the time it took to ship to me. Last private sale of CRS I saw dropped to $470 before it moved last week. That gave me pause, I thought it would have been snapped up instantly. But that is just one anecdote and ultimately, if you can find a buyer who will give you your price and you can sit on your stock until they do, what does it matter? 

 

I think I see what you mean, and I agree--a higher current selling price due to a shortage of Cohiba now won't result or contribute to higher overall long-term prices. 2016 Cohiba won't be worth more in 2021 because there wasn't much of it in 2016. There will be plenty of 2017 and 2018 Cohiba right behind it by then. In 2021, 2016 Cohiba will be worth what 5-year old Cohiba is usually worth--about double, give or take. 

I don't even want to get into the 01 Lanceros 5x5s. Those are just weird oddballs out there in the world right now. Was it you who bought some of those recently? Someone here did. I'm very curious to know it turned out. 

I think the Don Jose will perform like any other sought-after ER, so in that sense, it wasn't a total bust. But anyone who thought it would have the same value as the SF was simply mistaken and ignorant of the differences between the two, which as I broke down, were quite apparent prior to release with the obvious exception of the reviews of the cigar. 

And regarding the CRS, yes, the vendors that currently have stock are the less popular vendors with generally higher prices, but that's usually the way it shakes out over time. Most of the desirable ERs/ELs released over the last 5-10 years can only still be found (if they can still be found at all) at the higher-priced European vendors. A sale at $470 would mean that these have not increased in value much at all in 18 months which is unlikely, and I think you also have a tendency to underprice between BOTLs. Private sales are not really that accurate for determining market value, particularly with recent special releases. Many BOTLs are very much against any perceived "flipping" for profit, so there tends to be a lot of downward pressure on private sales of recent production--even very desirable special production.

There is quite a bit of CRS stock still out there, so it may indeed be priced high, but perhaps the vendors know this and are banking on appreciation catching up and will begin adjusting pricing upwards when they begin selling, which at $640 they will at some point. This is, after all a Cohiba EL, and every other Cohiba EL has performed very well in the short to medium term.

[Notsocleaver]

I totally agree that CRS will eventually sell for $640, and once these places that actually have stock that sells out, it is safe to say we have reached that point. I just wouldn't peg it at that value yet.

BOTLs certainly give each other deals, but when I see stuff listed under market rate, it is gone in minutes. When something sits for a day, and then sells with a small price reduction, I tend to think that its closer to market rate. I think the right move is to base your expectations on what savvy buyers will pay rather than hope that rubes will overbid at auctions, at least until what you have is old and rare enough that you can only find it at auction.

 

[luvdunhill]

I don't even want to get into the 01 Lanceros 5x5s. Those are just weird oddballs out there in the world right now. Was it you who bought some of those recently? Someone here did. I'm very curious to know it turned out. 

What do you want to know?

[Notsocleaver]

Factory Code to start, review of the construction would be nice too. Were these a recent buy, or something you have held on to for a while?

[NSXCIGAR]

6 hours ago, Notsocleaver said:

Factory Code to start, review of the construction would be nice too. Were these a recent buy, or something you have held on to for a while?

Yep, this ^^ 

[JZBdano]

I purchased a box of the 2001 CoLa right when they came out in January '17 before it was common knowledge that all the 5x5 packs popping up were 2001s.  Several had old dry mold on them, a few felt plugged, about half had wrapper damage (peeling and chipped feet) most likely from being dried out and brittle at one point in time.  I returned them but I was out shipping both ways.  The response I got from the vendor was that I should expect cigars that are 15+ years old to have encountered some less than ideal storage conditions at one point or another.  I used the credit towards 2 boxes of BCG which will probably appreciate at the same rate as CoLa over the next 5 years.

[joeypots]

I'm pretty sure that cigars that are popular with experienced cigar smokers that are being  discontinued will have good chance of strong appreciation. The BCG comes to mind as well as the SLR DC. I agree that Cohibas and to a lesser degree MC that are aged will attract attention.But,  I wonder if the guy with 40 or 50 boxes of cigars who hangs on to  a box of COROs for 8 years can get the kind of $$ for his aged stock on the secondary market that reputable vendors can. May be the answer is to rent a locker at a B&M and have them sell the mature cigars, but then the rental and commission has to cut into the profit in a big way. Plus, the merchants got to hold on to most of the very best stuff for them selves. My experience has been that people will buy aged cigars on various websites but getting prices like I see at the European B&M get is difficult. Plus, you got to keep your mitts off of those beauties that you have loved and cherished for years.

[NSXCIGAR]

2 hours ago, joeypots said:

I'm pretty sure that cigars that are popular with experienced cigar smokers that are being  discontinued will have good chance of strong appreciation. The BCG comes to mind as well as the SLR DC. I agree that Cohibas and to a lesser degree MC that are aged will attract attention.But,  I wonder if the guy with 40 or 50 boxes of cigars who hangs on to  a box of COROs for 8 years can get the kind of $$ for his aged stock on the secondary market that reputable vendors can. May be the answer is to rent a locker at a B&M and have them sell the mature cigars, but then the rental and commission has to cut into the profit in a big way. Plus, the merchants got to hold on to most of the very best stuff for them selves. My experience has been that people will buy aged cigars on various websites but getting prices like I see at the European B&M get is difficult. Plus, you got to keep your mitts off of those beauties that you have loved and cherished for years.

Here's a couple of threads on the feasibility and profitablilty of actually investing in CCs:

 

[NSXCIGAR]

14 hours ago, JZBdano said:

The response I got from the vendor was that I should expect cigars that are 15+ years old to have encountered some less than ideal storage conditions at one point or another.

I'd be running in the other direction at full speed if the vendor told me that, and no--I would expect any cigar sold by a reputable vendor to have been stored properly for its entire life no matter the age.  That's basically an admission that these have been stored poorly and are of totally unknown provenance, like a mastercase was discovered in the corner of a dusty warehouse after going belly up or the climate control had failed. I think it's irresponsible for a reputable vendor to sell cigars like this, and costly too, as they found out when you returned them. It's bad business. This isn't an auction--a vendor should always be representing a high-quality product. I know the vendors that are selling these are trusted, but I would generally advise them against selling this kind of product. It can result in unhappy customers and isn't worth the bad PR.

[rhcolbert]

Fascinating topic.  Mine don't last long enough ?

[dominattorney]

20 hours ago, JZBdano said:

I purchased a box of the 2001 CoLa right when they came out in January '17 before it was common knowledge that all the 5x5 packs popping up were 2001s.  Several had old dry mold on them, a few felt plugged, about half had wrapper damage (peeling and chipped feet) most likely from being dried out and brittle at one point in time.  I returned them but I was out shipping both ways.  The response I got from the vendor was that I should expect cigars that are 15+ years old to have encountered some less than ideal storage conditions at one point or another.  I used the credit towards 2 boxes of BCG which will probably appreciate at the same rate as CoLa over the next 5 years.

I am happy i didn't pull the trigger. Sorry you got burned 

[jfire]

If you were one of the people with a bad enough "problem" to buy 10 plus boxes of $285.00 (on sale in mid 13) CoRo boxes with the BTO/MUO 13 codes. They are already selling for 550-600.


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