stinkhead Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 Is there a consensus on what a standard markup would be for aged stock? I doubt there is some sort of hard and fast rule but would be nice to have a ballpark idea when dealing with aged stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LordAnubis Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 No rule. Some old stuff is old for a reason. Cos its shite! Some new stuff is chased after and has a high secondary market value. Some old stuff is the same. I would think something 15 years old would be double to triple current retail price, and anything in the 20 plus year range would be getting to 4 times current retail prices and above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dominattorney Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 I think that largely depends on a variety of factors. I have bought from one online vendor at a premium of less than 15 percent on boxes with 8 plus years on them. However, the tradeoff was that it was truly a blind purchase, no box codes, just the year. I got burned once with a box with 6 plugged sticks, but I also bought 8 other fantastic boxes, so your mileage may vary. The vendor currently has slim pickings. I've seen most other vendors charge between 25 and 50 percent for aged stock depending on the Cigar. However, at these higher prices, you get more information. What it all means is the golden ticket question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrightonCorgi Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 First of all, how do you defined aged? I consider that be around 10 years old. I could be way off the consensus. I don't bother with aged cigars at this point. I have enough cigars that will age themselves before I get to them. I would not pay a premium for them and never have. Go for quality first and never mind how old they are. Some less popular but fantastic smokes can sit for years by virtue of what they are; not because of quality. I would not pay premium for those either. Would certainly ask a premium if I were to sell them... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
garbandz Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 no formula to guarantee a great box. best chance is to inspect box before buying. provenance most important, best provenance gets top dollar. the rest is year, factory, roller, and what he was rolling that day. simple,yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rhcolbert Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 So subjective. Seeing "vintage" tab on an HK sellers website was interesting. Some things are 10 years plus, others are like 2014 or something??? Prices all over the place too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryNY Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 I've reviewed some of my recent "aged" buys mostly from Rob and a few of the other vendors. This is a rough approximate guide to the premium I paid compared to 2016 stock: 2013: +25% 2011: +50-70% 2008: +75-100% 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stinkhead Posted February 23, 2017 Author Share Posted February 23, 2017 1 hour ago, LordAnubis said: No rule. Some old stuff is old for a reason. Cos its shite! Some new stuff is chased after and has a high secondary market value. Some old stuff is the same. I would think something 15 years old would be double to triple current retail price, and anything in the 20 plus year range would be getting to 4 times current retail prices and above. I guess I should have been clearer. I am more interested in what the stuff I currently own is worth. Like I have an intact HUSW from 2010 (don't remember the box code off hand). I tend to agree with what is stated above. That some stuff is old for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wabashcr Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 Anymore the supply of aged stock with acceptable provenance, in my experience, greatly outweighs the demand, to the point that I'm effectively priced out of that market. The locker sales here are a good example. Most of that stock is priced much higher than I would be willing to pay for it, yet it all sells out instantly, with dozens of people disappointed to have missed out. Auctions are the same for me. It's very rare that I see an aged box go at auction for a price I would be willing to pay. Hell, even many sellers of questionable provenance are asking and receiving more than I'd be willing to pay in many cases. My disposable income is better suited to buying more current production stock and letting some of it age on its own. For certain cigars it's often possible to get a small head start by getting a box with a couple years of age on it from a vendor. YMMV 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MahDooRow Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 Whenever I contemplate a purchase of aged stock I am always mindful of very sage advice from @El Presidente... you're buying the seller. The reputation of the seller, his (or her) ability to verify provenance, chain of custody, storage conditions, along with an honest assessment of quality, etc. will (above all else) dictate price and premium for aged cigars. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Presidente Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 2 hours ago, stinkhead said: Is there a consensus on what a standard markup would be for aged stock? I doubt there is some sort of hard and fast rule but would be nice to have a ballpark idea when dealing with aged stuff. None. Depends what you hold, from where you bought, how it was kept, quality, scarcity, demand. Box to box assessment. 2010 Monte 4 might get 25% above list retail today. 2010 Winnies 100%-150% 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philc2001 Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 Some folks on other forums tend to charge a 5-10% premium per year. But it is very subjective for reasons already stated.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
polarbear Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 My rule of thumb is selling my personal stock: 5% on buy price compounded per year once stock is 3+ years old Example- Monte 4 from 2014 RRP $100us 2017 Price- $100us 2018 Price- $105us 2019 Price- $110.25us 2020 Price- $115.76us 2030 Price- $188.56 *Price quoted used only as example and not indicative of what actual rrp is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zeedubbya Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 Aged stock seems to really have skyrocketed in last 3 years. In the last year even more. I know a few people are selling off 2002-2010 stock because they believe like me recent production has been so good. I have a box of VR Famosos from 2015 right now and they are glorious cigars. Truly some of the best cigars I have ever had period. Have some 2014 Winnie's which I (likely) wouldn't trade for any box. Some 2014 Siglo 6 which I wouldn't trade for 2007s. Call me crazy, but there's no way I am paying a 10-20% per year markup on aged stock when in 5 years I believe current production will be incredible. However this is from a smokers point of view not an investors so take it for what it's worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fugu Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 Depends. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PapaDisco Posted February 23, 2017 Share Posted February 23, 2017 Y'all are too complicated. For regular production stuff from a reputable source (PCC Aging program and the like) it's about 7%/year, or double the price in about 10 years. For rare or highly sought after stuff it can be "the sky's the limit," but for 'regular' stuff, like 10 year old R&J or Hoyo Churchills it will be about double the price of a current box. That's my rule of thumb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philc2001 Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 What I can't just wrap my head around is the prices of most regionals. Many are fetching 100% and higher over regional prices within 2-3 years of release. That's outrageous. I'm sure the new Punch 48 will be 200% over Cuba retail for what was likely a regular production Punch corona gorda just a few years ago. Just not worth it to me. But lots will pay the premium.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnInCleveland Posted February 25, 2017 Share Posted February 25, 2017 On 2/23/2017 at 1:55 PM, stinkhead said: I guess I should have been clearer. I am more interested in what the stuff I currently own is worth. Like I have an intact HUSW from 2010 (don't remember the box code off hand). I tend to agree with what is stated above. That some stuff is old for a reason. I'll bet you can get twice what you paid for them. They seem to be the flavor of the week bc of scarcity. And bc they're awesome. I'd just smoke em though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NSXCIGAR Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 On 2/24/2017 at 5:39 PM, Philc2001 said: What I can't just wrap my head around is the prices of most regionals. Many are fetching 100% and higher over regional prices within 2-3 years of release. That's outrageous. I'm sure the new Punch 48 will be 200% over Cuba retail for what was likely a regular production Punch corona gorda just a few years ago. Just not worth it to me. But lots will pay the premium. With only ~50,000 sticks for most REs, it's a scarcity issue there. But I know what you mean. I happen to know that the going price for Edmundo Dante 109s is north of $2,000. Original price in 2007 was what, $500? Now you've got 10 years on them--expect it to go higher. $3-4K in 5 years, then maybe $5-7K after 20? It could happen. I have noticed extreme appreciation with certain coveted special releases. I could have told you ahead of time that the La Escepcions and the Edmundo Dantes would skyrocket, especially if they received positive reviews at all, which they did. And of course, the Gran Reservas are always winners. The Siglo VI GR sold for $4,140 in late 2015. PSD4 GR sold for $3,000, up from $2,000 the year before. Hunters & Frankau REs are probably going to have better results. Same for Cuba REs. Then you have the ELs, which it really only seems to be Cohiba that performs really well, although Monte does OK. The Sublimes and 520 have nearly tripled, but the Cohibas have done much better. 2001 Piramides EL sold for $2,400 in 2013. And 2004 Sublimes went for $3,310 in 2013. So I do think there are some gems to snag if you really want to make some coin. The Gran Reservas and Cohiba ELs seem to always be big winners over the long term. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Puros Y Vino Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 We've talked about this locally. "Consensus" is for any CC stock that is kept in proper conditions, they should appreciate in value at least by 5-8% annually. Higher end marcas like Cohiba can warrant a 10-15% yearly appreciation. EL's, RE's special humidors etc can greatly vary as well but could be expected to be more susceptible to supply/demand as their production numbers are actually published. Look at Conde 109's and the LGC Delicious jar for instance. So many factors at play really. Here in Canada a lot of us place a "premium" on something that is already in the country and has not been hit with duty. As easy as it is to order from here for instance, the real factor is having it arrive free and clear. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canadianbeaver Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 Like gambling, stock market value, real estate location and horses, love the answer above "Depends". The Behikes- 250% value increase in two years. LGC, San Cristobal, Trinidad, all said buy me now, we are going out in 2011 or so? Then gee, boxes at retail 2013. CB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adler_yeo Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 Like gambling, stock market value, real estate location and horses, love the answer above "Depends". The Behikes- 250% value increase in two years. LGC, San Cristobal, Trinidad, all said buy me now, we are going out in 2011 or so? Then gee, boxes at retail 2013. CBWish I could find a box of lgc mdo 2 for retail Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Notsocleaver Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 If I sold my 2013 Epicure Especiales for the price 2016s are going for I would make over 25% without even upcharging for them being "aged". You can make a bit just by keeping up with the price hikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shlomo Posted February 26, 2017 Share Posted February 26, 2017 I regularly have a good laugh at some vendors aged pricing. If we were to go by those prices, I'm sitting on a bagillion dollars in Cigars. ..LOL 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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