Trend toward Larger Gauge Cigars = shortage

[Moogypug]

Do you think that the continuing trend toward larger gauge cigars contribute to shortages? Looking at the line ups, they're just getting bigger and bigger. The island has finite land and even with increased land utilization, they must be reaching some type of limit (without compromising on quality). 

[CaptainQuintero]

From what I understand the island has plenty of prime land not being used with even more they could develop if they wished, the issue is more to do with failed harvests than lack of space.

But then again if they were utilising the space they have to once again make 300 million premium cigars a year then I'm guessing the size of this problem with be less severe

[danny]

Never thought about it that way.  I'm sure it definitely has something to do with it.  But shortages for something like Cohiba products would probably not be caused from too much wrapper/filler/binder used from say some of the larger RG cigars from H. Upmann, HdM, etc.  I'd have to assume that it heavily has to do with the failed harvests as CaptainQuintero said, since it seems like quality wrappers for higher end cigars are limited (ie. typically the colorado shades you'd find on Lanceros, Behikes, Esplendidos, Sir Winstons, and so on.)  Good point though!

[Corylax18]

56 minutes ago, CaptainQuintero said:

From what I understand the island has plenty of prime land not being used with even more they could develop if they wished, the issue is more to do with failed harvests than lack of space.

But then again if they were utilising the space they have to once again make 300 million premium cigars a year then I'm guessing the size of this problem with be less severe

Yes, much more of a quality issue than quantity. They struggle to get good results from what they plant, there is no reason to believe they would be able to effectively manage more acreage than they do now. I've heard a lot of farmers are switching to other crops as well, leaving years of tobacco growing experience behind. 

The shortages seem to be mostly, or all, wrapper leaf. Wrapper is much harder to grow then filler. Binders are often (maybe always??) wrapper leafs with cosmetic issues. If bugs or a storm roll through your filler leaf field causing small water spots or tiny bits of damage to the leaves its ok, nobody can tell, as long as it still tastes good. If the same thing happens to your wrapper leaf field, that tobacco isn't wrapper anymore. Those tiny little spots are unacceptable on wrappers for the higher end marcas. A totally perfect wrapper leaf is not an easy thing to produce. 

Wrappers are also fermented for longer than filler and binder leafs making it harder to quickly fill a gap in availability. Its The larger rings actually alleviate the current wrapper shortages. Rolling a lot of short fat cigars helps you spread what available wrapper you have through larger quantities of filler leaf.  

[Ethernut]

Enjoying the read gents. Great info!

[NSXCIGAR]

I'd also like to throw out the observation that certainly for the last 15 years I have generally found that the large RG cigars are milder and less rich than smaller RG cigars. Could it be possible that Cuba has a general glut of volado relative to quality ligero and seco? I would imagine this would not be an unrealistic situation--volado is much more plentiful and has much less flavor and is less prone to quality issues. What's the perfect way to deal with this issue? Make cigars that use more volado than seco and ligero--namely, large, mild cigars. 

This is just a hypothesis--would love to hear other's thoughts on it.

[CaptainQuintero]

2 hours ago, NSXCIGAR said:

I'd also like to throw out the observation that certainly for the last 15 years I have generally found that the large RG cigars are milder and less rich than smaller RG cigars. Could it be possible that Cuba has a general glut of volado relative to quality ligero and seco? I would imagine this would not be an unrealistic situation--volado is much more plentiful and has much less flavor and is less prone to quality issues. What's the perfect way to deal with this issue? Make cigars that use more volado than seco and ligero--namely, large, mild cigars. 

This is just a hypothesis--would love to hear other's thoughts on it.

There certainly seems to be an increase of 'volado bombs' over the past decade. In regional releases at the very least.

[ElReyDel757]

3 hours ago, Corylax18 said:

Yes, much more of a quality issue than quantity. They struggle to get good results from what they plant, there is no reason to believe they would be able to effectively manage more acreage than they do now. I've heard a lot of farmers are switching to other crops as well, leaving years of tobacco growing experience behind. 

The shortages seem to be mostly, or all, wrapper leaf. Wrapper is much harder to grow then filler. Binders are often (maybe always??) wrapper leafs with cosmetic issues. If bugs or a storm roll through your filler leaf field causing small water spots or tiny bits of damage to the leaves its ok, nobody can tell, as long as it still tastes good. If the same thing happens to your wrapper leaf field, that tobacco isn't wrapper anymore. Those tiny little spots are unacceptable on wrappers for the higher end marcas. A totally perfect wrapper leaf is not an easy thing to produce. 

Wrappers are also fermented for longer than filler and binder leafs making it harder to quickly fill a gap in availability. Its The larger rings actually alleviate the current wrapper shortages. Rolling a lot of short fat cigars helps you spread what available wrapper you have through larger quantities of filler leaf.  

I actually have some Cohiba Robusto tubos that have the green "frog eyes" water spots.  Is this not normal for premium brands as it is for the lesser expensive marcas?

[oakalley]

Having no experience with growing tobacco, but a fair amount growing other crops here in the Southern part of the USA, I would believe that what was said about quality vs quantity is probably the limiting factor. The vagrancies of weather are a huge factor in the production of quality crops. Not just tobacco, but all crops suffer from too much rain, as well as too little. Of course you can irrigate to mitigate too little rain, but there is nothing you can do about too much.

It was brought up that farmers are switching to other crops. There is a reason for this, simply economics. the tobacco farmer is forced to sell his leaf to the state which controls the price. The same acreage can be put into growing produce, tomatoes, corn, edible beans, etc. which can be sold directly to individuals, restaurants, as well as providing some of the food for the farmer and his family. If Cuba were to become a free enterprise system, and tobacco farmers got a fair return on their crops, there would be no shortage of leaf, unless there were a natural disaster like a hurricane.      

[PigFish]

As long as the heads of Tabacuba are occupied with party members and not top shelf industrialist (industry leaders) the company and the cigars will suffer from bad decisions and mistakes. Weather happens! Smart company leaders plan for it!!! They also pay their vendors!!!

-Piggy

[zeedubbya]

Along these same lines I still believe the shortage is a combination of things, but I think 4 things contributed to it.  

1.) Weather (we've heard this one many times).  

2.)  Cohiba 50th anniversary had to have used up some unkown amount of the stores of premium leaf which has had the extra fermentation, thus a Cohiba shortage.  This had to strain the production of Cohiba to some degree.  

3.) US President visiting Cuba and rumors of an Embargo lifting have certainly put prospectors and collectors and smokers on notice to hoard already on the shelf product.  

4.) Bad management and a terrible organizational structure as Ray has stated above. 

I will say I've been extremely happy with what I've seen this year and last.  Some amazing cigars other than Cohiba coming to market!  Gorgeous stuff.  

[NSXCIGAR]

6 hours ago, oakalley said:

Having no experience with growing tobacco, but a fair amount growing other crops here in the Southern part of the USA, I would believe that what was said about quality vs quantity is probably the limiting factor. The vagrancies of weather are a huge factor in the production of quality crops. Not just tobacco, but all crops suffer from too much rain, as well as too little. Of course you can irrigate to mitigate too little rain, but there is nothing you can do about too much.

It was brought up that farmers are switching to other crops. There is a reason for this, simply economics. the tobacco farmer is forced to sell his leaf to the state which controls the price. The same acreage can be put into growing produce, tomatoes, corn, edible beans, etc. which can be sold directly to individuals, restaurants, as well as providing some of the food for the farmer and his family. If Cuba were to become a free enterprise system, and tobacco farmers got a fair return on their crops, there would be no shortage of leaf, unless there were a natural disaster like a hurricane.      

Some good points. I would imagine, however, that the state would not allow Robaina, for example, to grow anything but tobacco primarily. For some farmers, switching crops is likely not an option.

Also, without economic sanctions it would likely be the case that Cuba would begin importing crops that are less profitable or more difficult to grow allowing even more land for tobacco. I would be surprised if tobacco wasn't Cuba's most valuable crop per acre farmed. Cuba should not be growing anything they can import cheaper. 

Something's obviously going on since total annual cigar production is actually lower today than it was in the late 70s (~100 million cigars) although it's reported that the 100 million mark was reached in 2008 (notwithstanding the 200 million+ crap cigars pumped out in the late 90s). Not sure if crop imports from the Soviet Union ever were a factor at that time but clearly Cuba can successfully produce a lot more tobacco than they do now either through more acreage or better technology.

Another thing of note is that HSA officially claims no cigar under 36 RG contains any ligero. As I have previously stated, I have personally found many sub-36 RG cigars to be stronger and richer than many 50+ RG cigars, particularly in the last 5 years. If the sub-36s can be as strong and rich as they are with only seco (if HSA is to be believed), imagine how little--if any--ligero and/or seco is being used in the mild big boys. 

Either way, I think it's an interesting theory. Could the trend toward larger RG and a severe cutting back of sub-46 RG in the last 15 years be a strategy to cover up the lack of ligero and seco relative to volado? The number of sub-46 RG cigars cut in the last 10 years is quite remarkable and downright bizarre in my view. I'm also not sure I quite understand how a wrapper leaf shortage would lead to a move away from smaller RG since no more than one-half leaf is ever used for one cigar and if there was a shortage of large leaves, wouldn't that mean more smaller RG and less larger RG? Perhaps someone can enlighten me on this...

[LordAnubis]

Does anyone think the shortage is just a scam? Really HSA is hoarding their cohibas and sir winstons and just waiting for the embargo to end or people to get desperate then release to the market when everyone is willing to pay whatever it costs? Why sell now at a low price when you can get a high price later?

[fabes]

28 minutes ago, LordAnubis said:

Does anyone think the shortage is just a scam? Really HSA is hoarding their cohibas and sir winstons and just waiting for the embargo to end or people to get desperate then release to the market when everyone is willing to pay whatever it costs? Why sell now at a low price when you can get a high price later?

Beginnings of an Añejado program?

[Ryan]

It's not just the weather, though that has played its part with difficult harvests.

There are still untold amounts of "custom-rolls" and "farm rolls" etc, most with beautiful wrappers. Certainly not in Habanos type quantities (80 million or so) but great quality leaf and lots of them.

Farmers aren't happy with what they're being paid by Tabacuba. Factory workers and other tobacco workers aren't happy with their pay/conditions. Some factories more than others. I have a feeling that this, at least as much as the weather, is what is contributing to shortages. All Cohiba vitolas have been in short supply for a couple of years now, worldwide.

Cuba itself is suffering due to the situation in Venezuela, more and more talk of rolling blackouts.

[JohnInCleveland]

7 hours ago, LordAnubis said:

Does anyone think the shortage is just a scam? Really HSA is hoarding their cohibas and sir winstons and just waiting for the embargo to end or people to get desperate then release to the market when everyone is willing to pay whatever it costs? Why sell now at a low price when you can get a high price later?

Honestly, no.  I don't believe that HSA is positioned to have mediocre sales numbers in perpetuity bc they're working a long con.  I think they've had crop shortages for multiple years, and it's started to impact output.

[garbandz]

Add to this the 3 consecutive poor years for tobacco growing.

However, you cannot believe what you hear from HSA, they seem to be confused...............

[oakalley]

15 hours ago, NSXCIGAR said:

Something's obviously going on since total annual cigar production is actually lower today than it was in the late 70s (~100 million cigars) although it's reported that the 100 million mark was reached in 2008 (notwithstanding the 200 million+ crap cigars pumped out in the late 90s). Not sure if crop imports from the Soviet Union ever were a factor at that time but clearly Cuba can successfully produce a lot more tobacco than they do now either through more acreage or better technology.

Got to remember those were the heydays of the Soviet Union's  involvement in Cuba. This was to the tune of millions if not billions of dollars in "foreign aid" from the USSR. That money bought lots of things including fertilizer, farm equipment and money to build infrastructure like curing barns, better farm to market roads, etc. When the USSR collapsed and financial aid to Cuba ceased, the economy fell on really bad times. During the Soviet Union's time in Cuba, they definitely exported cars (Lada's) as well as trucks and tractors to Cuba. Cuba sent a lot of sugar to the Soviet Union. My wife who grew up in one of the old Soviet Union republics told me that they ate sugar that was labeled  "made in Cuba". Of course when the collapse came, that all stopped.  Over the years, the loss of funds from the Soviet Union was mitigated somewhat by Venezuela selling Cuba cheap oil that could be refined and sold for much needed cash. Unfortunately for Cuba, Venezuela has fallen on hard times, Hugo Chavez is dead, and they can't feed and provide for their own people much less Cuba.

If land is being taken out of tobacco production and not being utilized to grow other crops, then I would suspect that the primary reason is the lack of resources to cultivate these acres. I have no idea as to how "Organic" the growing of tobacco is, but I feel sure they use fertilizer, and possibly some chemical pesticides. If these are lacking, it's pretty difficult to grow a good quality crop.

Ryan is probably correct in that  a lot of tobacco gets diverted into local hands, farmers with a few rollers, small entrepreneurs that are rolling cigars in the back rooms of their homes or businesses. I seriously doubt that the vast majority of cigars consumed by Cubans ever saw the inside of a state owned rolling facility.

[CaptainQuintero]

13 hours ago, oakalley said:

Got to remember those were the heydays of the Soviet Union's  involvement in Cuba. This was to the tune of millions if not billions of dollars in "foreign aid" from the USSR. That money bought lots of things including fertilizer, farm equipment and money to build infrastructure like curing barns, better farm to market roads, etc. When the USSR collapsed and financial aid to Cuba ceased, the economy fell on really bad times. During the Soviet Union's time in Cuba, they definitely exported cars (Lada's) as well as trucks and tractors to Cuba. Cuba sent a lot of sugar to the Soviet Union. My wife who grew up in one of the old Soviet Union republics told me that they ate sugar that was labeled  "made in Cuba". Of course when the collapse came, that all stopped.  Over the years, the loss of funds from the Soviet Union was mitigated somewhat by Venezuela selling Cuba cheap oil that could be refined and sold for much needed cash. Unfortunately for Cuba, Venezuela has fallen on hard times, Hugo Chavez is dead, and they can't feed and provide for their own people much less Cuba.

If land is being taken out of tobacco production and not being utilized to grow other crops, then I would suspect that the primary reason is the lack of resources to cultivate these acres. I have no idea as to how "Organic" the growing of tobacco is, but I feel sure they use fertilizer, and possibly some chemical pesticides. If these are lacking, it's pretty difficult to grow a good quality crop.

Ryan is probably correct in that  a lot of tobacco gets diverted into local hands, farmers with a few rollers, small entrepreneurs that are rolling cigars in the back rooms of their homes or businesses. I seriously doubt that the vast majority of cigars consumed by Cubans ever saw the inside of a state owned rolling facility.

They certainly have the potential to do it by themselves, they hit around 300 million cigars in the early 1900s with minimal modern methods.

Organic wise, as far at I remember Cuba is one of, if not the number one market leader in organic production. Not on purpose, they have little to no access to modern chemical methods, but working with what they have got has pushed the organic box forward a lot.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2008/apr/04/organics.food

[Fugu]

two minor corrections / notes here

On 29/08/2016 at 8:50 PM, Corylax18 said:

Wrapper is much harder to grow then filler. Binders are often (maybe always??) wrapper leafs with cosmetic issues.

Wrapper leaves are not (usually) used as binders. If at all, such a downgrading is being done at an early stage, after the initial fermentation step latest, where leaves may be sorted out for other use or exportation. Wrapper leaf (grown and processed as that) is not structurally suited for binder use, and the binder on the other hand is an essential part of the Ligada, so cannot simply be replaced by de-classified wrapper leaf. Wrapper leaf that finished the process with flaws will usually be used for smaller format cigars (i.e. that part of the Capa that appears ok), cutting scraps will go into the "Picadura bin"... And they do come from two different plants, with wrapper leaves coming from one - filler and binder leaves from the other main tobacco variety, fka Corojo and Criollo, later Havana 2000 and Havana 92 and their subsequent strains of today.

On 29/08/2016 at 8:50 PM, Corylax18 said:

Wrappers are also fermented for longer than filler and binder leafs making it harder to quickly fill a gap in availability.

Vive versa actually - wrappers undergo a much shorter and very different, "milder" fermentation process due to the delicacy of the leaf.

[Fugu]

On 30/08/2016 at 7:52 AM, NSXCIGAR said:

Something's obviously going on since total annual cigar production is actually lower today than it was in the late 70s (~100 million cigars) although it's reported that the 100 million mark was reached in 2008 (notwithstanding the 200 million+ crap cigars pumped out in the late 90s)

Yes, something seems to have changed. But comparing numbers simply on a basis of produced units is tricky due to the mostly, on average, smaller-size cigars of former times. More meaningful would be a figure on the basis of mass. And in addition to that, it will only tell us something about export numbers, but not about 'production'. Keep in mind that the major part of tobacco production stays in Cuba for domestic consumption. It's only a fraction of total production that makes it into the so called "premium" sticks. So, one would also have to differentiate between tobacco qualities resp. acreage under crop in the different tobacco growing regions.