I take it back....

[dougincanada]

If the US lifts the embargo other countries will have an easier time trading with Cuba. Poor management could lead Cuba to import tobacco and create blended cigars to create less expensive options more suited to american tastes. Now that would be weird. Would a cigar made in Cuba with 60% cuban filler still be a Cuban cigar? Would Rob sell such offerings? Would FOH have to become FOHH out of necessity. Friends of Habanos and Honduras? Stay tuned....

[Smallclub]

As for me I think that I have a theory that I guess that IMHO I believe that… err… what's the question again?

[Dbone]

Isn't the U.S. already Cuba's number one cigar buying customer?

[joeypots]

It's a fore gone conclusion that the end of the embargo will disrupt the Cuban cigar industry. Many have believed this for years. The industry may not be capable of managing the change efficiently for loads of reasons. What may happen, imvho, is that embargo cigar may develop the cache pre embargo have had. That box of .... you've been saving may be worth some real coin in a few years.

[ayepatz]

Not to poop on anyone's parade, but look what massively increased demand from the Far East has done to the Scottish whisky industry, not to mention En Primeur Bordeaux.

Stock up while you can.

[ElLoboLoco]

Yes...my theory is the U.S. will impose taxes on Cuban cigars similar to Canada if they become legal...Yikes, indeed! Glad I took the time and effort to build my coolidor

Why so?

[CaptainQuintero]

It all depends what President Trump decides or not

it all seriousness from the last 15 years or so the Cuban cigar industry has acted as if it found a well thumbed copy of 1995 Idiots guide to business.

It sounds like they have no problem with supply being low in the case of the embargo being lifted because chapter 7 says that if demand is high and supply is low its fine; this means they can jack the price up significantly, win-win for them; they don't have to spend their reserves of hard currency on modernising and increasing yields and get bigger profit margins for the same amount of work.

They can slowly increase supply eventually and keep the new higher prices set by the high demand/low supply surge. Even more win/win for HSA

[HarveyBoulevard]

I wonder what the first "RE 'Merica" will be...Will it have a 3rd band? Will it be the first cc 70 rg? Oh, the possibilities!!!

The best part about ending the embargo (for ME, on a purely selfish basis) would be having a LCDH I can visit here in the US. I like the shopping part of it, the tactile experience of groping and fondling the boxes...

I won't buy anything there I can get here mind you but it is fun shopping for smokes.

[JY0]

The embargo cannot be lifted by Executive Order or Obama would have lifted it. Only Congress can vote to lift it and I don't think that will happen for a few more years. Congress continues to be deadlocked on almost every issue. I would expect the same regarding the Embargo. Even though the power and influence of the expat Cuban community has waned a bit they still have tons of money and will lobby against a lift until they run out of money.....which is unlikely. It may be more likely after a couple of more generations. The first and second generation expat Cubans are still opposed to any changes in the Embargo and are still looking for restitution.

I agree that if lifted demand with skyrocket and quality will suffer. I've been stocking up for a few years to insulate myself from this and suggest that others do the same.

One must assume that if legal, taxes added will effectively double the price of cigars. I do not plan on changing my Cuban source no matter what happens.

Regarding the idea of American companies moving in on the Cuban cigar industry I think that is very unlikely. They will protect this golden goose. I also believe that Cuba will not be in favor of blending their tobacco with non Cuban tobaccos, again, they will protect the golden goose.

Edited to add: I hope the embargo is lifted for the sake on Cuban citezens. It will wreak havoc on the cigar world but they deserve the improved life that I believe will result from lifting the embargo. I think lifting the embargo could eventually force change in Cuba from the influx of American tourists and their dollars. I think if lifted the cat will be out of the bag and can never be put back in.

[ElLoboLoco]

Why will the US impose a "special" Cuban Cigar tax? Is that what is being suggested in a couple posts?

[El Presidente]

Isn't the U.S. already Cuba's number one cigar buying customer?

Currently estimated at roughly 30% of current Cuban production or 30 million cigars a year.

[Smallclub]

ROTT, many Dominican and Nica cigars are far superior to ROTT CCs.

[ElLoboLoco]

[...]

[ElLoboLoco]

Lol

[Colt45]

I hope I am wrong because if the information provided to me is correct, there are going to be some dark days ahead in terms of global supply

Are you actually questioning the integrity, loyalty, and respect for "tradition" of a corporate monopoly?

[perkinke]

It has been mentioned several times about the initial rush and then reaction to cc's not being the magic fruit they are rumored to be. I was wondering if after that reaction we will see a glut on secondary and resale markets?

[El Presidente]

Are you actually questioning the integrity, loyalty, and respect for "tradition" of a corporate monopoly?

I was wavering in 2008/09. Almost walked away from the industry due to quality.

I was excited with Altadis coming on board circa 2000. Much needed money and professionalism.

I had high hopes with the LE Program of the early 2000's.

I was over the moon with the introduction of draw machines, freezing, tobacco reserves, the smoke-ability of young stock 2005/06.

I lost my rose coloured glasses with the Monte Open release of 2009 and confirmation of VP Garcia fraud (on a grand scale) in 2010. Something that had been known within Industry circles for some years prior.

Forward on to 2015. Some 2014 cigars not yet released. Many running a year late. Most Cohiba not produced for 6 months. Tobacco shortages.

Great core product. Great traditions. Completely baffling/dysfunctional management.

Hard to back them to get the next 5 years right.

[Colt45]

Hard to back them to get the next 5 years right.

They need you and your peers

P.S. Monte Open - those were good times!

[DrunkenMonkey]

I have no desire to see the embargo lifted because I would rather not suffer through any drop in quality.

Perspective. There are more important things in the world than cigars. I'd gladly trade a temporary disruption in the cigar market for some relief from the economic suffering that the Cuban people have been experiencing.

[canadianbeaver]

Isn't the U.S. already Cuba's number one cigar buying customer?

Certainly members on cigars forums are!

Returning to the original post, the bad news is the dinishing crop yields might mean less coming out to select decent boxes from among the shipments to Oz, correct? The selection is slim as it is! The good news is we who have been quietly buying what we can to put away for investment will do very well.

On a more entertaining note, the American-Cuban cigar market, I think, will not look like Macanudo Club or some kind of swish Cuban cigar display at all. Rather it will be "Monte's 100% Authentic Cuban Blend Robusto 'Gars" 9.99/dozen. Buy 1 get 1 free at the flea market type thing.

[CUBANO]

Perspective. There are more important things in the world than cigars. I'd gladly trade a temporary disruption in the cigar market for some relief from the economic suffering that the Cuban people have been experiencing.

Well said my friend.

[stogieluver]

It all depends what President Trump decides or not

it all seriousness from the last 15 years or so the Cuban cigar industry has acted as if it found a well thumbed copy of 1995 Idiots guide to business.

It sounds like they have no problem with supply being low in the case of the embargo being lifted because chapter 7 says that if demand is high and supply is low its fine; this means they can jack the price up significantly, win-win for them; they don't have to spend their reserves of hard currency on modernising and increasing yields and get bigger profit margins for the same amount of work.

They can slowly increase supply eventually and keep the new higher prices set by the high demand/low supply surge. Even more win/win for HSA

DING DING DING DING DING. WE HAVE A WINNER! Economics 101, except in this case, we're dealing with Communists who are trying to work a little good ole capitalism into their economic model, and they're going to screw it up bigtime. They, like all good Socialists/Communists, don't understand that when government tries to exert unnatural forces on the economy, the outcome they desire is never achieved.

And if you think counterfeits are gone wild in South America, just wait.

[Hoepssa]

chance for NC is coming, for CC lovers it will be dark days like early 2000's, HSA should sit down and open the economic textbook, why ppl never learn from the history?

[hoffmr3]

A large contingent of vocal Cuban Americans live in a state that is of great political significance. As long as the Castro brothers rule, there will be very, very little political will to anger a core constituency in what we Americans call a "swing state." Certainly not before the big election next November, even if both brothers vanish from sight tomorrow.

This all makes me wonder what happens after the Castro boys have passed. Anybody have a guess as to whether a post-Castro Cuba would liberalize enough to allow foreign investment? I think American tobacco companies would be eager to trade a massive infrastructure investment for the exclusive rights to distribute CC in the U.S.