Trump eyes surprise economic deal with Cuba

[El Presidente]

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2026/03/08/trump-administration-cuba-economic-deal/89054230007/

After the dramatic U.S. capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and the abrupt cutoff of oil shipments, the island appeared to be the administration’s next target for regime change. But instead of a blunt-force campaign to topple Havana’s communist government, the Trump administration is advancing moves designed to make Cuba economically dependent on America —an approach that reframes regime change through economic reliance, staving off an all-out confrontation.

 

[RedLantern]

Looking forward to the new "gold motif" cigar line in that case. Something sure to rival Montecristo Opens.

[Lucas Buck]

The best thing that could possibly happen is to end the GD embargo once and for all. 

[BrightonCorgi]

Sounds positive.  

[JohnnyO]

Write it down in your ration card: "It's all BS". Here's the record:

Korea 0-1

Vietnam 0-1

Iraq 0-1

Iran 0-1

Afghanistan 0-1

Iran 0-0 in the 1st quarter

The only plan was a lot of bombs, dead soldiers and civilians, economic collapse at US taxpayers' expense. I don't see how he is improving the life of the average day Venezuelan and there is no clarity as to where the $$$ is going from the oil sales. Conoco-Phillips was awarded $9 billion in a lawsuit for the seizure/nationalization of their assets in Venezuela and has not seen one cent. So the orange haired Ayatollah isn't going to help anyone. No politics, just facts.

[El Presidente]

Flipside argument. 

The potential enrichment of the US administration and or it's participants is the only reason Cuba is receiving any attention at all. Play their cards right and the cuban military govt could come out of this wealthier and entrenched politically for another 65 years. 

 

 

[bmac]

I think it’s safe to say Cuba needs some help.

[rcarlson]

10 hours ago, JohnnyO said:

The only plan was a lot of bombs, dead soldiers and civilians, economic collapse at US taxpayers' expense. I don't see how he is improving the life of the average day Venezuelan and there is no clarity as to where the $$$ is going from the oil sales. Conoco-Phillips was awarded $9 billion in a lawsuit for the seizure/nationalization of their assets in Venezuela and has not seen one cent. So the orange haired Ayatollah isn't going to help anyone. No politics, just facts.

Hogwash.

And the award was $8.7 billion from a World Bank Tribunal, not $90 billion. No matter the judgment, collecting from a country, especially Venezuela with its current economic status (illiquidity), is another matter and would unquestionably be harmful to the average day Venezuelan, who were celebrating the Maduro ouster.     

[rcarlson]

6 hours ago, bmac said:

I think it’s safe to say Cuba needs some help.

Which it never has and never will receive under the current regime. I pray the people of Cuba one day get out from under the oppression of communism.  Feeding the monster is not the answer. Humanitarian aid that won't be seized and misapplied is important though.     

[Fugu]

Much easier to make “deals” with a corrupt leadership. There will be nothin’ in it for the Cuban people. And I see no flipside. Seems to be the eternal Cuban fate, if you look back in history.

They don’t need humanitarian aid. What they need is to eventually be allowed to reap their own riches.

[JohnnyO]

4 hours ago, rcarlson said:

Hogwash.

And the award was $8.7 billion from a World Bank Tribunal, not $90 billion. No matter the judgment, collecting from and country, especially Venezuela with its current economic status (illiquidity), is another matter and would unquestionably be harmful to the average day Venezuelan, who were celebrating the Maduro ouster.     

Sorry for the typo. Fixed for you. John

[rcarlson]

4 hours ago, Fugu said:

Much easier to make “deals” with a corrupt leadership. There will be nothin’ in it for the Cuban people. And I see no flipside. Seems to be the eternal Cuban fate, if you look back in history.

They don’t need humanitarian aid. What they need is to eventually be allowed to reap their own riches.

So, maintain the status quo? We're probably saying the same thing. What's fascinating is that Cuban immigrants to the U.S. (some right here on this blog that I know) are nearly unified in their support of the U.S. approach. The soul-robbing communist ideology is laid bare by history and personal by experience from those that suffered under it. The egocentric projection of one's own sensibilities onto the ones that don't share it bothers me to no end. 

I'm optimistic that Cuba may have reached a tipping point that might result in true improvement.  And I don't care which administration is behind it.  

[rcarlson]

12 hours ago, JohnnyO said:

Sorry for the typo. Fixed for you. John

Understood. I can be pedantic at times. 😁

But my larger point still pertains. I like where things are with Venezuela and Cuba.    

[El Presidente]

4 hours ago, Fugu said:

Much easier to make “deals” with a corrupt leadership. There will be nothin’ in it for the Cuban people. And I see no flipside. Seems to be the eternal Cuban fate, if you look back in history.

They don’t need humanitarian aid. What they need is to eventually be allowed to reap their own riches.

I would love to see a truly free Cuba. I am not Cuban so I defer to the Cubans in my life as well as on this board. 

It has been some 70 years since the last democratic elections. The current populace has no democratic traditions. Miami/US/European/some Latin America expats excluded. Nicaragua at least has a recent memory of an elected parliamentary system. Corrupted of course. 

Assuming this US administration does a deal with the current Cuban military govt. I would say the Vietnam model would be the communist gold standard. 

One state government. 4th largest economy in South East Asia. Currently experiencing one of the fastest rates of wealth growth in the world. 

"Start by doing what's necessary; then do what's possible; and suddenly you are doing the impossible." Saint Francis of Assisi.

[chasy]

I guess the question is, what do you do to help a country where the citizens live in terrible conditions under an authoritarian leader? I truly do not know. Try to help? Sorry it’s not my problem? Who is allowed to help and who isn’t?

It’s so murky to me, the pretense required to intervene. Honestly feels random in application and administration.

Is ousting the current Cuban government a good thing or a bad thing? Or is it a classic ‘it depends’ thing?

[LordAnubis]

Would the deal be to drop the embargo and let them determine their own fate as is their right and let them trade goods in the global market like almost everyone else? I wonder what the end goal is? Indebt the Cuban people to extinction? Not sure what else Cuba has to offer. Maybe there’s some inside information on what minerals and oil reserves they have that’s of interest to US to mop up. 

[riderpride]

No doubt that the Cuban people are in need of assistance. Until an actual representative of the Cuban people (I'm not even sure what that looks like at this point) has a seat at the table, then I'm a bit skeptical of the outcome and it's impact 5+ years out. Whatever else, I hope they get what they need.

Cheers!

[Fuzz AI]

Waiting for the announcement of "Trump Tower en el  Malecon".    

[JohnnyO]

2 hours ago, rcarlson said:

Understood. I can being pedantic at times. 😁

But my larger point still pertains. I like where things are with Venezuela and Cuba.    

Help me understand why you feel conditions are good for Venezuela and Cuba. I still have family in both and nothing has changed but for the worse. Personally I have not seen positive moves in the right direction. Right now in Marianao (Havana) they are burning piles of garbage and throwing rocks at government buildings, gasoline is $10 USD a liter. Venezuela still has "collectivos", authorized gangs that go around town pistolwhipping and bashing in heads when you speak out against the government. There are political prisoners in jail in both countries. Some just for posting an outburst on the internet. All these power outages force families and businesses to throw away what food they had in the fridge/freezer. You like that?

[El Presidente]

1 hour ago, JohnnyO said:

Help me understand why you feel conditions are good for Venezuela and Cuba. I still have family in both and nothing has changed but for the worse. Personally I have not seen positive moves in the right direction. Right now in Marianao (Havana) they are burning piles of garbage and throwing rocks at government buildings, gasoline is $10 USD a liter. Venezuela still has "collectivos", authorized gangs that go around town pistolwhipping and bashing in heads when you speak out against the government. There are political prisoners in jail in both countries. Some just for posting an outburst on the internet. All these power outages force families and businesses to throw away what food they had in the fridge/freezer. You like that?

I cannot answer for RC. 

Of course that doesn't stop me. 

Venezuela and Cuba are already clusterf***s. We all know it. On a scale of 1-10, 10 being the highest level of productivity and domestic bliss, Cuba would be scraping a .1 (point one) and Venezuela a 1. 

The "I like where things are with Venezuela and Cuba" could be interpreted as "there is at least a smidgeoon of hope that things could get better for the people on the ground"

Have we seen it...no.  Is there hope? I can't say but I do pray. 

These are entrenched systems of government. There are no magic wands. There is no appetite for boots on the ground and no certainty that such a move would be successful in either case. 

Sowing some seeds, dealing with the devil you know, extricating some wins knowing your limitations, playing the long game with a hand in the game.....may be that all can be realised at this time. 

I am being immensely gracious with the motives.

[rcarlson]

13 hours ago, El Presidente said:

I cannot answer for RC. 

Of course that doesn't stop me. 

Venezuela and Cuba are already clusterf***s. We all know it. On a scale of 1-10, 10 being the highest level of productivity and domestic bliss, Cuba would be scraping a .1 (point one) and Venezuela a 1. 

The "I like where things are with Venezuela and Cuba" could be interpreted as "there is at least a smidgeoon of hope that things could get better for the people on the ground"

Have we seen it...no.  Is there hope? I can't say but I do pray. 

These are entrenched systems of government. There are no magic wands. There is no appetite for boots on the ground and no certainty that such a move would be successful in either case. 

Sowing some seeds, dealing with the devil you know, extricating some wins knowing your limitations, playing the long game with a hand in the game.....may be that all can be realised at this time. 

I am being immensely gracious with the motives.

Yeah, that's my sentiment. Long game.  IMO, it's more than a smidgeon of a chance though.  

14 hours ago, JohnnyO said:

 You like that?

No.  I don't "like" suffering. You misinterpreted my comment.  

[Fugu]

12 hours ago, rcarlson said:

So, maintain the status quo?

Don’t know how this can be read from my post.

[rcarlson]

4 hours ago, Fugu said:

Don’t know how this can be read from my post.

Sorry. Misread your comment 'cause I'm a big dummy.  

[Puros Y Vino]

29 minutes ago, rcarlson said:

Sorry.  Misread your comment 'cause I'm a big dummy.  

Sorry. Couldn't resist. 

[JohnnyO]

6 hours ago, rcarlson said:

Yeah, that's my sentiment. Long game. IMO, it's more than a smidgeon of a chance though.  

No.  I don't "like" suffering. You misinterpreted my comment.  

Long game? 50 years like Vietnam? The haves surface and the have nots stay in the pit. Plus the ecological disaster that's developing. It seems like you feel that the ones that are outside of Cuba have more say than the ones inside Cuba. You said it not me, no misinterpretation there. Your smidgeon of chance is a fantasy. This could be approached differently and the US could have faster results chasing the money. DC and the Crab have recently been flying to Cayman and Panama more than usual, probably moving their $$$ around. From the flight lists they know they are coming. You attack that you get results. DC has $120 million+interest in an account in Tortola BVI from the Fidel days. Everybody wants a piece of that. You press charges of embezelment, laundering, hell even Rico statute and they'll get results. But everybody wants to sit around the campfire and sing kumbaya. Fantasies are good for people. John