Trump administration weighs naval blockade to halt Cuban oil imports

[Hammer Smokin']

11 hours ago, BrightonCorgi said:

Things could be a lot worse.  

It depends on what set of eyes you are watching from. 

 

[M777]

As expected, Mexico has no interest in losing trade agreements and paying tariffs. 
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/mexico-seek-diplomatic-solution-after-us-threatens-cuba-oil-tariffs-2026-01-30/

Also, as of Jan 21st 2026, the US has seized 7 sanctioned oil tankers linked to Venezuela. The tankers were simply overtaken by U.S. forces, no oil tankers have been bombed or otherwise destroyed to the best of my knowledge. 
https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2026/1/21/us-seizes-a-seventh-venezuela-linked-oil-tanker

Under these circumstances, I seriously doubt any country would be bold enough to risk more tariffs and loss of tankers over trying to get crude to the Cuban regime. 

[griller]

I acknowledge that this is a warped view, and my heart aches for the Cuban people and this entire situation. I can only assume that this is the way this administration has chosen to starve the military of fuel to the point to where they can't operate to enforce/keep the current regime in place. Major military hardware requires petrol, tech infrastructure as well. No power, no fuel, then we're back to a military with the fighting capacity of the Napoleonic army with automatic rifles (doubt they have the black power to fire a cannon if they could even transport one since they're theoretically out of fuel). Maybe they eventually lose a fight with what's left of the healthy/young Cuban population with pointed sticks, etc. by simply returning to their families & leaving their post.

[El Presidente]

2 hours ago, M777 said:

Under these circumstances, I seriously doubt any country would be bold enough to risk more tariffs and loss of tankers over trying to get crude to the Cuban regime. 

I agree. 

China may agitate to escalate a crisis (pure theatre) and make the US administration look worse internationally than it does currently. 

If the "tariff" stick is waved, China should join with Canada and India and threaten to dump their US Bond Holdings. Now that would be a blowtorch moment. 

 

[JohnnyO]

Ya'll getting ahead of yourselves. The US is ready for another government shutdown tomorrow and one of the big points is the reckless spending going on without Congressional approval. Yeah, Rubio went in front of them with his explanation why they are doing things in a certain way. But they are going to cut them off. Rubio has stated not one soldier is going to set foot in Venezuela, I guess they are going to "run things" with a remote control. It was like he was reading a fairy tale to pre-schoolers: "The big bad wolf Maduro wanted to bite grandma with his narco-terrorist teeth, and Diaz-Canel sharpens them. So we had to react quickly, boys and girls". The truth is they are trying to work an inside straight and don't have 1/2 the cards yet. They have no plans, just talk. 

[MrBirdman]

12 hours ago, BrightonCorgi said:

It's pretty reasonable to think the military is prepared to use force. If a ship breaks the blockage, it's not going to get to its destination. We've seen this repeatedly with drug boats leaving Venezuela.

It’s not “reasonable” to assume the government will treat legally operating vessels from great powers the same as illegal swift boats from a minor one. I don’t think a blockade is viable for just that reason - economic sanctions are the most effective card they have to play, with much less risk. 

[M777]

11 hours ago, El Presidente said:

I agree. 

China may agitate to escalate a crisis (pure theatre) and make the US administration look worse internationally than it does currently. 

If the "tariff" stick is waved, China should join with Canada and India and threaten to dump their US Bond Holdings. Now that would be a blowtorch moment. 

That would be an interesting one. 

[NYGuido]

On 1/30/2026 at 1:43 AM, Wiclovis18 said:

I think this administration is going to attempt to take total control of this hemisphere - by any means necessary. A ship approaching a blockade is warned several hundred nautical miles before approach. Steaming ahead despite those warnings is what will cause something to turn kinetic.

Their position seems to be to allow Russia to attack Europe and control that part of the world, allow China to do whatever it wants in its part of the world, and Trump gets to do whatever he wants over here. 

3 years left of this lunacy. May god have mercy on our souls. 

[JohnS]

2 hours ago, NYGuido said:

Their position seems to be to allow Russia to attack Europe and control that part of the world, allow China to do whatever it wants in its part of the world, and Trump gets to do whatever he wants over here. 

3 years left of this lunacy. May god have mercy on our souls. 

This description seems eerily similar to the three ruling states of George Orwell's famous dystopian novel, 1984! (I.e. Oceania, Eurasia and Eastasia.) How prescient!

[NYGuido]

20 minutes ago, JohnS said:

This description seems eerily similar to the three ruling states of George Orwell's famous dystopian novel, 1984! (I.e. Oceania, Eurasia and Eastasia.) How prescient!

A lot of that novel ended up being eerily prescient.

[Cestis4]

Venezuela 2.0 in a few months.

[Duxnutz]

Me thinks there’s gonna be real estate/Amazon/energy deals to be had in Cuba. I just hope to go back for a visit before the Walmarts and Starbucks come. 

[BrightonCorgi]

14 hours ago, Duxnutz said:

Me thinks there’s gonna be real estate/Amazon/energy deals to be had in Cuba. I just hope to go back for a visit before the Walmarts and Starbucks come. 

They'll be influx of ex pats returning to take back what they consider still theirs.

I've heard stories of families (within the Jewish community) burying "treasure" before leaving Cuba. Hopefully the next generations have good maps on where their family treasure is buried.

[JohnnyO]

The 15-20 days statement is similar to the orange haired guy saying "COVID will be over in two months". Cuba does have heavy sulfured crude oil that they are drilling for, along with a substantial supply of natural gas. As you all guessed, they have not re-invested in their equipment over the years. There is some investment from China and Canada at the moment, but its not as productive as it could be. Added to that the Sulfur damages machinery over time so its not as desirable as the Venezuelan crude that is more efficient. This is why Cuba was refining the Venezuelan crude and selling it to the Bahamas, Jamaica, Cayman islands etc and kept some for local use. As China is being cut off to the Venezuelan crude, they might be the only ones to invest more in Cuba's oil. That will take time for any measurable turnaround. Venezuela is in the same situation. Exxon and Chevron executives have stated that investment in Venezuela is "inadvisable" until political and economic adjustments are made. So its's just all talk, no plans. But any measure by the US will not be enough to fulfill their wishful thinking. John

[Ken Gargett]

On 1/31/2026 at 9:11 AM, El Presidente said:

I agree. 

China may agitate to escalate a crisis (pure theatre) and make the US administration look worse internationally than it does currently. 

 

agree re making the US admin look worse (although why would you bother wasting your time - the US is doing a bang up job of that themselves).

not so much the theatre comment. china has its eye very firmly on Taiwan and poking the bear in the US backyard provides a distraction but also tests the waters. what they are witnessing with Ukraine and elsewhere must give them great confidence that the time to make a move to reunite Taiwan is fast approaching. if providing support, oil or otherwise, to Cuba ties up the US then why not? 

quite seriously, at the moment, it might be the epstein files which are saving taiwan. when the oval office needs its next diversion to take the focus away from the contents of the files, a dust-up with china would be about the best diversion one could imagine (or perhaps they will just find the next Minneapolis - or ramp things up with Cuba). and i suspect we all know that the oval office would put its own interests (and i do not mean the interests of the country) ahead of supporting taiwan.