Gold - has it topped?

[riderpride]

3 hours ago, Chas.Alpha said:

Silver at $109. Today. 🤔

Shanghai premium is $20usd above Comex, so it's not slowing down for a while.

Cheers!

[Nevrknow]

Couldn't resist anymore. Sold 10% at $100 today. Plan on converting more if the ratio keeps dropping. We'll see.

[vladdraq]

Silver puts today to hedge UUUU, MP, rare earths and uranium in general. 

[LordAnubis]

So after my super (pension fund) has near on doubled, I’m looking at exiting my gold positions right about now. Someone convince me otherwise. 

[El Presidente]

7 hours ago, LordAnubis said:

I’m looking at exiting my gold positions right about now. Someone convince me otherwise. 

Millions around the world pondering the same question. 

So where do you put the moola? 

Equities? Key market overvalued possibly.

Unlikely to be USD/currencies 

Property? Top of the market possibly. High costs of entry and exit. 

Crypto? no idea. 

 

I think you should put the money in Cuban Cigars. Current stock may all become Pre Revolution II shortly. 

[Obscureobject7]

The question should really be “ has the dollar bottomed”. And the answer to that  is: absolutely not. It’s not really gold increasing in price, it’s the dollar being devalued, which Trump and Bessent have been planning all along. I think they made that abundantly clear. PMs will keep going up as long as this remains the administration policy. 

[Obscureobject7]

On 1/27/2026 at 11:31 AM, vladdraq said:

Silver puts today to hedge UUUU, MP, rare earths and uranium in general. 

Bad idea. You will get your head ripped off shorting right now. Wait until the dollar reverses. Which won’t be for a while.

[ha_banos]

The future's gold and not orange then? It's blasted to 5500$ I've had 3 price alerts including 4000£. It's fun times! When to take profits and pay the CGT!? Dca in is the easy bit! Now to Dca back out!

[LordAnubis]

6 hours ago, El Presidente said:

Millions around the world pondering the same question. 

So where do you put the moola? 

Equities? Key market overvalued possibly.

Unlikely to be USD/currencies 

Property? Top of the market possibly. High costs of entry and exit. 

Crypto? no idea. 

 

I think you should put the money in Cuban Cigars. Current stock may all become Pre Revolution II shortly. 

My super strategy is 100% cash or 100% high risk. No middle ground. It was in cash between 2023 till early 2025 (bad decision in hindsight I guess I was expecting a market crash) when it went to gold in 2025. I’ve made good gains and I’m not greedy. I’d cash out and leave as cash probably. 

[Chibearsv]

52 minutes ago, El Presidente said:

I think you should put the money in Cuban Cigars. Current stock may all become Pre Revolution II shortly. 

If only there was a BR locker system that would hold my purchased FOH inventory until a future BR sale and shipment 🤔

[Chibearsv]

5 hours ago, LordAnubis said:

My super strategy is 100% cash or 100% high risk. No middle ground. It was in cash between 2023 till early 2025 (bad decision in hindsight I guess I was expecting a market crash) when it went to gold in 2025. I’ve made good gains and I’m not greedy. I’d cash out and leave as cash probably. 

I’m leaning toward selling too but my procrastination has been too lucrative 🤣. 

[cnov]

What to put it in though? Cash is handy if there's a dip in the stock market, but if there's a dip in the stock market, surely gold presses on? 

[Nevrknow]

5 hours ago, cnov said:

What to put it in though? Cash is handy if there's a dip in the stock market, but if there's a dip in the stock market, surely gold presses on? 

Real estate. I don't mean rental house or office buildings. Remote work "appears" to be emptying office buildings. Rents will go through the roof on homes. All of this is assumption (i.e. looking for debate here). I say this based on MY situation. In MY situation I have vacant acres around me I can turn my silver into. (Did with my last silver sale.) Planning on acquiring more. My thinking is this:- Farmable/resaleable land with zero upkeep/expenses except for taxes. 

But then I'm worst case scenario. I can grow food. Can't eat cash or gold. I've never been a city guy anyway. 

Gold will press on forever. Always has. Fiat never lasts forever. IF it goes to s**t, I do not want to be holding toilet paper in my hands. Or in the immortal words of my stepson, "it's never happened before so it won't happen."

What a history idiot. But I digress...

[vladdraq]

On 1/29/2026 at 10:29 AM, Obscureobject7 said:

Bad idea. You will get your head ripped off shorting right now. Wait until the dollar reverses. Which won’t be for a while.

I guess it wasn't that bad after all. Sold some, kept some. 

 

[Obscureobject7]

On 1/31/2026 at 4:55 PM, vladdraq said:

I guess it wasn't that bad after all. Sold some, kept some. 

Yep. I was wrong as usual😁. Warsh nomination really spooked everyone. 

[ha_banos]

Ok, I think we're past the top! 😁

[vladdraq]

On 2/2/2026 at 11:08 AM, Obscureobject7 said:

Yep. I was wrong as usual😁. Warsh nomination really spooked everyone. 

I didn't expect such a brutal move in such a short time either. Rare earths, uranium, it's in the US administration plans, worth a watch, in my opinion. Also marijuana stocks, with all the rescheduling talks, that's material change. But yeah, otc stocks are not for the faint hearted. 

[Capt. Corona]

Physical gold and silver will never let you down. I still have my constitutional silver I collected off my paper routes 55 yrs ago. I was buying silver like a maniac between 20-30 an oz and gold at $600 a 1/4 oz which wasn't that long ago. Lucky gut feeling, I guess. When you look at the demand numbers vs the production numbers for both, the demand is still leading a historic high with China and India leading the pack. I wish I had bought more but I still had to eat also. 😁

I'm 70 now and getting close to selling out but not until after this summer or possibly the end of this year. Yeah, there was a historic dip that scared the crap out of everyone but I'm staying buckled in for now. I'm betting this year is going to be better than 2025 for the stackers.

 

[joeypots]

   As an amateur student of the equity markets I've long been puzzled by the people's insistence that there is some great long term value in holding these metals. The difference in long term gain between gold, silver and the S&P 500 stock index is profound. I'm not referring to trading, one can trade anything and make money if the skill is there. But for long term wealth accumulation the index, a well known benchmark, tells the tale as well as anything out there.  Never mind what a few good stock picks can do. Sure, hold a little, they may help in a severe downturn. But really, the metals are a lousy investment by any measure and are a drag on the long term systematic accumulation of wealth.

I understand, if there is a nuclear war we will need hard assets, not ones and zeros on a computer screen.

I also understand, "Never bet on the end of the world. It only will happen once and it's not likely to happen."

   

February 1992 to December 2025

https://curvo.eu/backtest/en/compare-indexes/gold-bullion-vs-silver-bullion-vs-sp-500?currency=usd

Index	Compound annual growth rate	Standard deviation	Sharpe ratio
Gold spot price	7.67%	15.31%	0.47
Silver spot price	8.82%	28.91%	0.39
S&P 500	10.78%	14.62%	0.68

[ha_banos]

9 hours ago, joeypots said:

   As an amateur student of the equity markets I've long been puzzled by the people's insistence that there is some great long term value in holding these metals. The difference in long term gain between gold, silver and the S&P 500 stock index is profound. I'm not referring to trading, one can trade anything and make money if the skill is there. But for long term wealth accumulation the index, a well known benchmark, tells the tale as well as anything out there.  Never mind what a few good stock picks can do. Sure, hold a little, they may help in a severe downturn. But really, the metals are a lousy investment by any measure and are a drag on the long term systematic accumulation of wealth.

I understand, if there is a nuclear war we will need hard assets, not ones and zeros on a computer screen.

I also understand, "Never bet on the end of the world. It only will happen once and it's not likely to happen."

February 1992 to December 2025

https://curvo.eu/backtest/en/compare-indexes/gold-bullion-vs-silver-bullion-vs-sp-500?currency=usd

Index	Compound annual growth rate	Standard deviation	Sharpe ratio
Gold spot price	7.67%	15.31%	0.47
Silver spot price	8.82%	28.91%	0.39
S&P 500	10.78%	14.62%	0.68

Why do governments and the central banks even bother? They are regulated and there is no regulatory reason they must hold gold. Fractional reserves yes.

Honestly I've never understood gold. Something to do with limited resource that does not spoil. Imagine there was an absolute scarcity limited resource. And imagine the greatest war fought ended (USD) something's got to fill the void. The hedge. But why any value?

Sure it's not the greatest investment vehicle. Until recently liquidity was a pita. But it's a great global track of value. One of the oldest tradable contract vehicles.

It's not about the end of the world. It's about accounting. Global immutable standard ledger.

[BrightonCorgi]

16 hours ago, ha_banos said:

Honestly I've never understood gold. Something to do with limited resource that does not spoil. Imagine there was an absolute scarcity limited resource. And imagine the greatest war fought ended (USD) something's got to fill the void. The hedge. But why any value?.

Gold looks good on our better halves.

[ha_banos]

4 hours ago, BrightonCorgi said:

Gold looks good on our better halves.

Nothing looks better.😜

[Arabian]

Buy a safe box, buy some gold and silver bullions, throw them in there and forget for the next 5/10/15 years. always diversify.

20 hours ago, ha_banos said:

Why do governments and the central banks even bother? They are regulated and there is no regulatory reason they must hold gold. Fractional reserves yes.

Honestly I've never understood gold. Something to do with limited resource that does not spoil. Imagine there was an absolute scarcity limited resource. And imagine the greatest war fought ended (USD) something's got to fill the void. The hedge. But why any value?

Sure it's not the greatest investment vehicle. Until recently liquidity was a pita. But it's a great global track of value. One of the oldest tradable contract vehicles.

It's not about the end of the world. It's about accounting. Global immutable standard ledger.

I don't think gold is an investment, I believe its a hedge against inflation. the USD has weakened and therefore gold went up. However in the recent weeks I see people day trading gold?  What's crazy is that the more prices go higher, the more people line up to buy more. 

[Obscureobject7]

On 2/4/2026 at 2:39 PM, vladdraq said:

I didn't expect such a brutal move in such a short time either. Rare earths, uranium, it's in the US administration plans, worth a watch, in my opinion. Also marijuana stocks, with all the rescheduling talks, that's material change. But yeah, otc stocks are not for the faint hearted. 

I just bought a few k worth of silver right before it crashed 😢. Been buying gold since 2023 though. 

Congrats on the big balls to short PMs  and the timing was with you.