FOH Finance: Could the Bears eventually have their day?

[El Presidente]

FOH Finance: Could the Bears eventually have their day? 

It has been a long hibernating spell for market/economy bears. With some respected industry players now raising some "balloon" red flags, are we indeed set for a correction? 

I have a love of economics/business as do many of you. 

Share your perspective as to where you think your local economy as well as the general global economy will trend over the next 12 months. 

[Glass Half Full]

When I saw the title, I thought you meant the Chicago Bears

[Chibearsv]

3 hours ago, Glass Half Full said:

When I saw the title, I thought you meant the Chicago Bears

Me too.  I think the Bear market is coming sooner 🐿️

[my happy place]

I see a shift in the US economy and it’s repositioning for some type of reset. I wouldn't call it a correction because I don’t know if we’re closer to the top of the market or if we’re creating a new floor. The fixed income markets are showing some uncertainty the next year or two. I don't want to get too deep in the weeds so to simply my thoughts... as long as consumer confidence doesn’t collapse, and the average American debt to income ratio is consistent (I truly believe this one matters right now), the market will ride out the turbulence. It will probably happen quicker if we can bring some global stability (ie. tariff/trade "negotiations"). I'm not bearish, but optimistically cautious. I would be bearish if indicators showed a global recession on the horizon, but that doesn’t appear likely for now.

Also, GO BEARS!

[qs210]

It's coming.

[riderpride]

Massive inflation in the last 5 years, high debt levels, and pressures to lower interest rates are 3 scary things. Add in crazy high P/E ratios for AI stocks (and others as well) and we can see why people are flocking to metals and the money market.

Something is on the horizon,  just not sure how big it will be. 

Cheers!

[LordAnubis]

I’m in mostly cash assets and or assets that I believe will benefit from a crash. I thought it was coming 3 years ago, but it all kept going up.

I think to move into a crash now would mean some big players would need to wiped out, and I don’t see any government in any position to do any bailouts this time (I mean hey they’ll probably just BRRR the funny money printer even harder). 

Surely it’s gotta crash (I think in the vicinity of 40% across global markets). How can it keep going with record over valuations. I think this time will be a huge influx of money from other countries to fill the void. A lot Asia and Middle East is fluuuuuuuuush with money.

[my happy place]

51 minutes ago, LordAnubis said:

Surely it’s gotta crash 

Why? Most economists have been expecting China to collapse on their own house of cards for over a decade, and Russia to cave under sanctions in a prolonged war in Ukraine, but here we are.

[Glass Half Full]

Oo

 

[tbelle7]

Stocks only go up. Cheers fellas.

[cnov]

Gold is certainly behaving like it's on the way but the market is saying otherwise. 

I'm in the corner of not having a clue what I should be doing. 

[loose_axle]

I'm with cnov. No idea. But I just work on the markets up invest, markets down invest. 

[LordAnubis]

5 hours ago, my happy place said:

Why? Most economists have been expecting China to collapse on their own house of cards for over a decade, and Russia to cave under sanctions in a prolonged war in Ukraine, but here we are.

Good question. I don’t know why. I think the people are poorer now than we have ever been. Suuuuurely that’s gotta mean a crash is coming. 

[REesq]

I certainly believe the AI bubble is going to burst in the shorter term, just like the dot.com burst in 2000. Whether that burst goes wide and totally drags down other sectors I have no idea. But never forget, it is a rigged game and it is always hard to bet against the house in the long term.

[El Presidente]

On 10/10/2025 at 1:15 PM, LordAnubis said:

I’m in mostly cash assets and or assets that I believe will benefit from a crash. I thought it was coming 3 years ago, but it all kept going up.

I agree with you. However, textbook economics was thrown out the window some time ago. 

Big companies are no longer permitted to fail. They are bailed out by govts be it cash/tax deferral or...now...govt equity of all things. Socialism at its finest 

[my happy place]

7 hours ago, El Presidente said:

I agree with you. However, textbook economics was thrown out the window some time ago. 

Big companies are no longer permitted to fail. They are bailed out by govts be it cash/tax deferral or...now...govt equity of all things. Socialism at its finest 

The irony of "free-market capitalism" giving way to corporate socialism.

Edited to also include: traditional economics is no longer relevant. It's all geopolitical now.

[El Gato]

2026 will be the year most likely. The cycle is not always like a clockwork but overall liquidity says we're still going up for some months.

[my happy place]

2 hours ago, El Gato said:

2026 will be the year most likely. The cycle is not always like a clockwork but overall liquidity says we're still going up for some months.

The good 'ole Benner Cycle.

[qs210]

China and US both are trying to take the temperature down a little.

[rcarlson]

Only if consumer spending dives, which it hasn't.  

[Arabian]

On 10/12/2025 at 11:23 AM, my happy place said:

The irony of "free-market capitalism" giving way to corporate socialism.

Edited to also include: traditional economics is no longer relevant. It's all geopolitical now.

I'm all for free market until you compete against me. Seems like its the motto. 

We had the great depression, bloody Monday, panic of 'put any year', major world wars, the 2008 crisis , Covid....etc. The market always wins at the end. Tell Warren Buffet I'm staying.  

[my happy place]

2 minutes ago, Arabian said:

The market always wins at the end.

It's just like surfing. It's great when the waves are predicable, but once you get cocky and think you've figured it out, the ocean puts you in your place.

Sometimes the right move is sitting on the beach with a cigar in one hand and a drink in the other.

[joeypots]

8 hours ago, Arabian said:

We had the great depression, bloody Monday, panic of 'put any year', major world wars, the 2008 crisis , Covid....etc. The market always wins at the end. Tell Warren Buffet I'm staying.  

Indeed. "Never bet on the end of the world. It's not likely and it can only happen once." The bears will alway opine that this time it will be different. There is a whole class of people who believe that every rally is fake and every decline is real. I know a few of them and their lives have been greatly diminished by their fear of the collapse of the equity markets and their certainty that the tide will retreat and never come back in. Over the last 35 years steady systematic investing made my family and me.

That said, a ten year bear market I don't need. As we enter our last decades we have limited exposure significantly. 

[cnov]

6 hours ago, joeypots said:

Indeed. "Never bet on the end of the world. It's not likely and it can only happen once." The bears will alway opine that this time it will be different. There is a whole class of people who believe that every rally is fake and every decline is real. I know a few of them and their lives have been greatly diminished by their fear of the collapse of the equity markets and their certainty that the tide will retreat and never come back in. Over the last 35 years steady systematic investing made my family and me.

That said, a ten year bear market I don't need. As we enter our last decades we have limited exposure significantly. 

That's a great quote and some good advice for us on the other end of the race.

[El Presidente]

19 hours ago, rcarlson said:

Only if consumer spending dives, which it hasn't.  

I tend to agree Rob. Generally, the market music stops when the consumer puts away their wallet. 

There is however always the risk of  that 2026 "sub prime" asteroid lurking under a different form.