Bohn007 Posted October 15, 2016 Posted October 15, 2016 This hit my mailbox today. Some of this is reported as fact, some rumor. "With this email I would like to give you my personal opinion and some facts concerning the current supply: 1. Due to 3 bad harvests there is a huge lack of large wrappers meaning the large vitolas became scarce. 2. A large amount of Cuban cigars has been bought by Imperial Tabaco to prepare the sales of Cuban cigars in the US 3. Exponentially increasing Tourism in Cuba increased local sales of Cuban cigars which means export is reduced 4. Yesterday the US Government announced US Citizens can bring unlimited amount of Cuban rum and cigars back to the US (previously limited to 100 USD) This results in the following:1. Our importer can not supply Cohiba anymore for the coming months2. Next to Cohiba; following cigars will not be supplied anymore for the coming months: Montecristo Eagle, Partagas E2, RyJ Wide Churchill, Hoyo de Monterey Double Corona & San Juan, H.Upmann Magnum 56, Trinidad VigiaIn my opinion this is only the beginning of a very difficult year to come and more vitolas will follow!"
clutch5150 Posted October 15, 2016 Posted October 15, 2016 Not sure, but IN Cuba I saw no shortage of anything (which could be they are indeed holding cigars in country for tourist because the cigar shelves were packed, see pic below), except Behike which I was told was because of the "Glue" which I translated into the binder. I know at one point several years ago, was there was supposedly a rumor with Cuba using other wrappers from other country's that caused an uproar? I did hear some such rumors while I was there a few weeks back that wrapper growth is not close to what it used to be....While I was visiting and talking to Hiroshi at the Robaina farm he did mention that quality wrappers (mostly everything they do) are in great demand, more than ever. I did not want to ask him about the out of country wrapper rumors, but here is an old article from CA, http://www.cigaraficionado.com/webfeatures/show/id/Big-Wrapper-Crisis_7705 A more recent artical talking about this and the Behike shortages. (Different from what I was told from 2 sources, one of them Hiroshi's father Carlos and another local roller at a LCDH) http://www.cigaraficionado.com/webfeatures/show/id/2013-14-Cuban-Tobacco-Harvest-May-Be-Worst-in-20-Years-18017 No shortages here, most of the Cohiba's were here but off to the back left side. What I did not see a lot of was Siglo VI's. Only a few shops had these. I do worry a bit, because of the new opening of regulations, and the shortages of binders we could see some real shortages, (hopefully this does not translate into bad quality to make up for it...) Time will tell, but I am a bit concerned.
BEVOSREVENGE Posted October 15, 2016 Posted October 15, 2016 2 hours ago, Bohn007 said: This hit my mailbox today. Some of this is reported as fact, some rumor. "With this email I would like to give you my personal opinion and some facts concerning the current supply: 1. Due to 3 bad harvests there is a huge lack of large wrappers meaning the large vitolas became scarce. 2. A large amount of Cuban cigars has been bought by Imperial Tabaco to prepare the sales of Cuban cigars in the US 3. Exponentially increasing Tourism in Cuba increased local sales of Cuban cigars which means export is reduced 4. Yesterday the US Government announced US Citizens can bring unlimited amount of Cuban rum and cigars back to the US (previously limited to 100 USD) This results in the following:1. Our importer can not supply Cohiba anymore for the coming months2. Next to Cohiba; following cigars will not be supplied anymore for the coming months: Montecristo Eagle, Partagas E2, RyJ Wide Churchill, Hoyo de Monterey Double Corona & San Juan, H.Upmann Magnum 56, Trinidad VigiaIn my opinion this is only the beginning of a very difficult year to come and more vitolas will follow!" Bohn you are going to start a buying panic.
Popular Post BarryNY Posted October 15, 2016 Popular Post Posted October 15, 2016 1 hour ago, clutch5150 said: The truth is this is actually a picture of Bohn007's basement.............. 7
Mattb82 Posted October 15, 2016 Posted October 15, 2016 I received the same email. Does worry me some
Frank Rizzo Posted October 15, 2016 Posted October 15, 2016 Same here, and I just started getting into this. Hell, my original sampler is still acclimating.
Fugu Posted October 15, 2016 Posted October 15, 2016 Oh pleeease... Folks, this seems to be the same LCDH that we had a fairly intense discussion on earlier this year (ER Cuba flipping). And the same person who was interviewed in a recent article about "cigar investments"... Their business manners start slowly waxing doubtful to me. Not going to comment further on this than to say that this seems to be aiming at exactly that ^^^ , firing 34 minutes ago, BEVOSREVENGE said: a buying panic I'd much challenge* the integrity and the demanded neutrality of a merchant, making the above statements. At the very least to be taken with a heavy grain of salt. (* and this is my personal opinion) 3
Smallclub Posted October 15, 2016 Posted October 15, 2016 3 hours ago, Bohn007 said: This results in the following:1. Our importer can not supply Cohiba anymore for the coming months I have the greatest doubts about this. Even if it were true I can't see an european importer telling it so coldly. They are usually more vague and certainly less pessimistic. 1
BEVOSREVENGE Posted October 15, 2016 Posted October 15, 2016 8 minutes ago, Fugu said: Oh pleeease... Folks, this is the same LCDH that we had a fairly intense discussion on earlier this year (ER Cuba flipping). And the same person who was interviewed in a recent article about "cigar investments"... Their business manners start slowly waxing doubtful to me. Not going to comment further on this than to say that this seems to be aiming at exactly that ^^^ , firing I'd much challenge* the integrity and the demanded neutrality of a merchant, making the above statements. At the very least to be taken with a heavy grain of salt. (* and this is my personal opinion) Yes, given POTUS' change on Americans bringing Cuban cigars back from anywhere aboard now; it would appear that they are trying to capitalize on yesterday's news. Amazing the timing on that email.?
Jimmy_jack Posted October 15, 2016 Posted October 15, 2016 Also guns and ammo in America will soon be outlawed. So buy as many and as much as you can. Start prepping! I say that completely tongue in cheek because that's how you generate sales. I know they are two different markets but it sounds like a sales push to me. (I know we aren't supposed to talk about guns. I was just using as an example of sales gimmickry. If a Mod doesn't like let me know and I'll edit)
semifan1 Posted October 15, 2016 Posted October 15, 2016 5 minutes ago, Jimmy_jack said: Also guns and ammo in America will soon be outlawed. So buy as many and as much as you can. Start prepping! I say that completely tongue in cheek because that's how you generate sales. I know they are two different markets but it sounds like a sales push to me. (I know we aren't supposed to talk about guns. I was just using as an example of sales gimmickry. If a Mod doesn't like let me know and I'll edit) While I don't think guns will be banned per say, I do think the dems will find a way to ban the high cap magazines. That's what I have been buying up.
Lotusguy Posted October 15, 2016 Posted October 15, 2016 Oh pleeease... Folks, this seems to be the same LCDH that we had a fairly intense discussion on earlier this year (ER Cuba flipping). And the same person who was interviewed in a recent article about "cigar investments"... Their business manners start slowly waxing doubtful to me. Not going to comment further on this than to say that this seems to be aiming at exactly that ^^^ , firing I'd much challenge* the integrity and the demanded neutrality of a merchant, making the above statements. At the very least to be taken with a heavy grain of salt. (* and this is my personal opinion)You are so dead on... Always consider the source when you get information and who it might benefit. 2
Lotusguy Posted October 15, 2016 Posted October 15, 2016 You are so dead on... Always consider the source when you get information and who it might benefit. Edit: and ethics is a word that doesn't exist in this merchant's vocabulary. 1
Popular Post dageshi Posted October 15, 2016 Popular Post Posted October 15, 2016 It's a bit of an odd list isn't it... "Montecristo Eagle, Partagas E2, RyJ Wide Churchill, Hoyo de Monterey Double Corona & San Juan, H.Upmann Magnum 56, Trinidad Vigia" It would be a terrible shame if the Montecristo Eagle were to be unavailable.... 5
clutch5150 Posted October 15, 2016 Posted October 15, 2016 1 hour ago, BEVOSREVENGE said: Yes, given POTUS' change on Americans bringing Cuban cigars back from anywhere aboard now; it would appear that they are trying to capitalize on yesterday's news. Amazing the timing on that email.? Another words, a reason to raise their prices even more?
BEVOSREVENGE Posted October 15, 2016 Posted October 15, 2016 28 minutes ago, clutch5150 said: Another words, a reason to raise their prices even more? I am 100% capitalist; however, I do not intentionally bilk people out of their money. There needs to be decency in the world and there are plenty of opportunities to make a living without being deceptive while doing so. Would be interesting if anyone reports back about them changing their pricing since earlier in the week. I am also a big believer in the free market; supply & demand that is unmanipulated will reach equilibrium. However, one could argue that the elements of the embargo plus questions about authenticity of product allow some vendors to extract a premium over and above the equilibrium price. Just another reason to thank Rob and his team for the forum, the fraternity and their wonderful service. 2
PigFish Posted October 15, 2016 Posted October 15, 2016 ... if one of you emails his addy to me, I will be happy to tell him that I have successfully bought Cuban cigars for going on 20 years now, I have never needed his cigars, Cohibas or otherwise in the past, and damn sure don't need them now! Cheers! -Piggy 3
NSXCIGAR Posted October 15, 2016 Posted October 15, 2016 Hmm, is tourism to Cuba really increasing exponentially? In 2015, Tourism to Cuba increased 17% in total and about 33% for Americans. Anywhere from 140,000-190,000 Americans visited Cuba legally and illegally in 2015. With direct flights now operational, we can expect maybe another 33% increase at most? So there will be an additional 40-60,000 Americans Visiting Cuba in 2016-2017. This really isn't very many. Also, three bad harvests in a row? Prices have remained fairly stable and there really hasn't been a shortage of any cigar until 2015 with Cohiba being the obvious one. A large amount of cigars being bought by Imperial to prepare for the embargo lifting? No evidence of that, and how would a B & M know? If they did, it would be insider info, and that individual would not be emailing it to Joe Blow customers. Also, I doubt they would buy up a large amount of stock at once and instead acquire gradually. Finally, there's no evidence the embargo is even close to ending. That, and the recent FDA regulations mean plenty of time to prepare for any potential opening of the US market. Stocking up right now (particularly on the heels of what we're to believe are three bad harvests) seems foolish to me. 1
Hurltim Posted October 15, 2016 Posted October 15, 2016 It's a bit of an odd list isn't it..."Montecristo Eagle, Partagas E2, RyJ Wide Churchill, Hoyo de Monterey Double Corona & San Juan, H.Upmann Magnum 56, Trinidad Vigia" It would be a terrible shame if the Montecristo Eagle were to be unavailable....Lmfao! Thought the same thing. Who cares about the friggin Eagle???Oh wait, if you have shelves full of them...Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk
Hurltim Posted October 15, 2016 Posted October 15, 2016 I just checked plane flights to Cuba-- 289 bucks. That's about the markup this vendor has on a box of Espys...IJS Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G920A using Tapatalk
oliverdst Posted October 15, 2016 Posted October 15, 2016 Do you think this email sent was low? What about removing ALL Cohibas from your store??? Yes, this happened in some shops this week.
clutch5150 Posted October 15, 2016 Posted October 15, 2016 25 minutes ago, tommygun68 said: Don't worry there will never be a shortage of GLASSTOP COHIBAS down on the Island. LoL
kuma Posted October 16, 2016 Posted October 16, 2016 I'm very happy that the CC's can't be sold here (USA) for retail. This will give Cuba time to get there shit in order before retail can sell here. God only know if Cuba would / could keep up with US demand. There could be another melt down as when the Russniks pulled out of Cuba and the shit hit the fan. Quality went south super fast. I was not a smoker then but I have read / heard the horror stories. For the average Joe CC's from duty free shops at airports/ hotels and B&M's world wide he / she thinks they are getting a deal. But FOH members know better we have been spoiled by the sheer quality of Rob's product. Buying outside of the states won't be of any great endeavour because even at the duty free airports the price points are high. buying in country say at a city like Barcelona prices are ok. When In France this year I went to Monaco and the prices were crazy for an average CC. Prices in France were ok higher than when I was in Spain. I guess the gov. sets the price for CC's in each country. Headed to Japan this summer but prices are crazy high there. About 15 to 20 yrs ago prices in Japan were not that bad. But now I'll bring my own from FOH. I've heard England, Canada, and some B&M's in Swiss, Belguim are rather high. Thanks Pres. keepem coming while you can brother! 3
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